Category: Political Nightmare

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Big Picture Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Divide & Rule Emissions Impossible Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Social Change The Data Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope

Unpicking Kyoto (1)

Unpicking Kyoto
Jo Abbess
20 June 2010

PART 1

Introduction

The governments of the world are, by and large, well-informed about Climate Change by their trusted scientific advisers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, there is a disconnect between this knowledge and concrete policy action. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has not been successful in achieving control of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Plus, annual negotiations have not reached a form of an agreement to succeed Kyoto, as evidenced by the inconclusive round of talks in December 2009 in Copenhagen. Suggestions of a way forward include a radical re-think about the formulation of the Kyoto Protocol, and the connection of Climate Change to other global concerns.

Kyoto Isn’t Working

For a period during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the world economy appeared to reach a stable point, whereby Carbon Dioxide emissions per person (per capita) levelled off. Many of the world’s major economies were switching fuels – from coal to Natural Gas. And some heavily industrialised countries were going through revolutionary change, and reducing their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions as a result of the ensuing loss of industrial output.

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Be Prepared Big Picture Energy Revival Marvellous Wonderful Obamawatch Peak Energy Peak Oil Political Nightmare Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Social Change Toxic Hazard

Obama : Tough on Grime

Image Credit : McClatchy

Tough on grime; tough on the causes of grime.

American President Barack Obama declares that as regards environmental pollution, “we shall fight them on the beaches”.

https://www.whitehouse.gov/the-press-office/remarks-president-nation-bp-oil-spill

“Already, this oil spill is the worst environmental disaster America has ever faced. And unlike an earthquake or a hurricane, it’s not a single event that does its damage in a matter of minutes or days. The millions of gallons of oil that have spilled into the Gulf of Mexico are more like an epidemic, one that we will be fighting for months and even years.”

“But make no mistake: We will fight this spill with everything we’ve got for as long as it takes. We will make BP pay for the damage their company has caused. And we will do whatever’s necessary to help the Gulf Coast and its people recover from this tragedy.”

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Divide & Rule Peace not War Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Resource Curse

Natural Gaza (2)

What’s wrong with this picture ?

Yes, that’s right. There’s no mention of the Gaza Strip or the West Bank.

Besides blurring the land boundaries, it seems that Israel is also blurring the maritime and sub-sea borders into the bargain.

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Big Picture Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing China Syndrome Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Cost Effective Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Social Change Technological Sideshow Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Wind of Fortune Zero Net

The Price of Carbon

The Price of Carbon

by Jo Abbess
20 April 2010

1.   Introduction

Policy strategy for controlling risky excess atmospheric greenhouse gas (Gowdy, 2008, Sect. 4; McKibben, 2007, Ch. 1, pp. 19-20; Solomon et al., 2009; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 6, pp. 205-208) mostly derives from the notion that carbon dioxide emissions should be charged for, in order to prevent future emissions; similar to treatment for environmental pollutants (Giddens, 2009, Ch. 6, pp. 149-155; Gore, 2009, Ch. 15 “The True Cost of Carbon”; Pigou, 1932; Tickell, 2008, Ch.4, Box 4.1, pp. 112-116). Underscoring this idea is the evidence that fines, taxes and fees modify behaviour, reigning in the marginal social cost of “externalities” through financial disincentive (Baumol, 1972; Sandmo, 2009; Tol, 2008). However this approach may not enable the high-value, long-term investment required for decarbonisation, which needs adjustments to the economy at scale (CAT, 2010; Hepburn and Stern, 2008, pp. 39-40, Sect. (ii) “The Consequences of Non-marginality”; MacKay, 2008, Ch. 19; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 2, pp. 40-41).

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Climate Change Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Social Change

Climate Vigil : Holy Night

CLIMATE VIGIL PRAYERS

1. Christian Ecology Link, the Campaign against Climate Change, and other members of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition are holding an overnight vigil between Saturday 15th May 2010 and Sunday 16 May 2010, celebrating the Earth in the Arts, and reminding the newly-formed British Government to act decisively and urgently on Climate Change.

2. As part of the Climate Vigil, Christian Ecology Link, with the support of Operation Noah, are offering a meeting of Christian prayer, music and reflection at St Martin-in-the-Fields Church, Trafalgar Square, London WC2N 4JJ, on Saturday 15th May 2010 at 11pm (23:00), to which all are welcome.

3. Mark Dowd of Operation Noah, Channel 4 “God is Green” documentary presenter, will address those meeting at St-Martins-in-the-Fields Church, on the subject of the crisis in Climate Change, the damages the World is already experiencing, the failures in the international negotiations, and hopes for what the new British Government can bring.

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Big Picture China Syndrome Climate Change Media Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Science Rules Screaming Panic Social Change

Sceptic Backlash : Questions Answered

Last Wednesday’s “Sceptic Backlash” meeting ended with a lively Question and Answer session. Here it is as I recorded it :-

https://www.campaigncc.org/scepticsmeeting

Q. (from Christian Hunt, a plant in the audience from Greenpeace)

– You say it’s just the journalists who are the sceptics. What happens if another Government comes in and scepticism gets political footholds ? [ reference to Conservative Party Climate Change sceptics ]

A. (Phil Thornhill, Campaign against Climate Change)

– People shy away from the problem if they can’t find solutions. We propose a million Climate jobs – there are lots of ways of dealing with the crisis. That’s the kind of thing we should be emphasising.

Q. Andrew Neill interviewed Caroline Lucas and asked her about the Phil Jones interview with the BBC where he said there had been no “statistically significant” warming in the last 15 years. Has there been no statistically significant warming or not ? Why wouldn’t Caroline Lucas, head of the Green Party, say “you’re wrong” ?

A. (Phil)

– I wrote her a rather long e-mail. You can’t really debate Science in the popular Media. Most people don’t understand.

– The tip for answering this kind of question is – in 15 years, it’s hard to spot a trend against the background noise. It’s a difficult thing to explain.

– It’ a clear case of how once you start debating the Science it gets twisted. She should have said “this is a typical case of the misrepresentation of Science”.

A. (Ben Stewart, Greenpeace Media)

– She was fine to say “I’ll take a pass on that”.

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Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Climate Change Divide & Rule Extreme Weather Low Carbon Life Media Meltdown Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Screaming Panic Social Change Voluntary Behaviour Change

Polar Bear : Poster Child

So, I’m standing in the G2 theatre at the School of Oriental and African Studies, after the “Sceptic Backlash” event, talking with two Climate Change activists, one Irish, one American.

The question arises : since our lifestyles are causing deadly Climate Change for people in other parts of the world, maybe we should have communications based around pictures of suffering children ?

I disagree. I point out that when the environmentalists put out posters about Polar Bears, that the audience pretty quickly realised that the Polar Bears were being used as a “poster child” for Climate Change, and they started to mock the campaigning.

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Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Climate Change Eating & Drinking Energy Revival Extreme Weather Low Carbon Life Meltdown Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Screaming Panic Social Change Voluntary Behaviour Change

Nightmare on Easy Street

Every now and again, some well-meaning, or even lightheartedly jokey relative or friend lets me know I should calm down with the story of the risk of Climate catastrophe as it’s (a) not effective; (b) not necessary or (c) way off the end of the scale. Apparently I’m crying wolf, but there’s not even a messy puppy in the neighbourhood.

There are two narratives at work here. One is that people don’t like being preached too (neither do I), and they feel that the sum total of Climate Change communications amounts to somebody high up the authority chain telling them to change their behaviour, somehow making the common man (and woman) responsible for a problem that should actually be fixed by the governments, who have the power (or large companies and international corporations, who have the financial resources).

The moral of nearly every cultural telling of the Climate Change story is “ten things you can do to make a difference”, and a lot of people feel it will mean shivering in the dark with no car and more tax. People are so not into self-sacrifice and abstention from consumerism, and they react badly, even to the extent of skin rashes, to the fear of micromanaged austerity being thrust upon them.

But that’s not why I talk about Climate Change.

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Climate Change Political Nightmare Social Change

Climate Union : One Nation, Under Water

https://www.campaigncc.org/greenjobs
https://www.campaigncc.org/overnightvigil

I’m in the Climate Union. Are you ?

Yesterday evening, I sat in an amazing discussion.

There were representatives from some of the UK’s best social movements, including environmental campaigns, faith communities and trades unions.

Part of a series of coalition talks, yesterday’s goal was to make progress on forming a united front on Climate Change. There are some politics to do.

Because, well, you know, it’s not just about Global Warming. It’s about Climate Change. And that will affect us all.

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British Sea Power Climate Change Energy Revival Low Carbon Life Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Peace not War Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Social Change Voluntary Behaviour Change

Climate Union

I’m in the Climate Union. Are you ?

Finally, I have to admit that I have an personal stake in the outcomes of Climate Change and Energy policy.

I have to confess to a utilitarian, yet enlightened, self-interest.

And so say all of us.

In the future, I want there to be jobs. New jobs, for young and old, for me. Productive, worthwhile employment, green jobs that don’t permanently wreck the atmosphere for future generations.

When I get sick, unabled or old, I want there to be social services. Not run on a shoestring budget owing to Carbon Taxes or Carbon Trading, but Low Carbon hospitals with well-motivated, sufficient staff; and decent, affordable sheltered housing and residential homes for the vulnerable.

I want cheap, Zero Carbon Energy; as access to Energy is an essential public good, even a human right, for those who live towards the Poles. I don’t want to be made poor by a badly managed transition out of Fossil Fuels, or expensive Carbon Capture projects that the State pays for, because Electricity generation companies want to burn dirty Coal. I don’t want to have to pay double for my power, just because new Nuclear Power stations cost so much to build.

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Carbon Capture Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum

No More Coal

The options are clear : either rapidly commence the largest, most complex and resource-hungry engineering infrastructure ever conceived to do Carbon Capture and Storage, or simply halt the burning of Coal to generate electricity.

Simple choice, you would have thought; yet governments around the world have been sucked in by the slick allure of the all-expenses-paid lobbyists for Old King Coal. Politicians and civil servants roam the halls of power with that glazed look in their eyes as they recite the mantra “Clean Coal. Clean Coal. Clean Coal…”

Yet all is not a done deal. In Scotland, common sense and good, open debate have led to a rejection of all that is lumpy and sooty; and that can only bode well for the future of Energy policy.

Coal is not clean. It never has been and it never will be.

We can’t afford cheap Coal. It’s time to ban it.

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Big Picture Carbon Army Carbon Capture Climate Change Energy Revival Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Renewable Resource Social Change Technological Sideshow Voluntary Behaviour Change Wind of Fortune

Hot Start

Hot Start
by Jo Abbess
04 February 2010
An assessment of the technology and policy for de-Carbonising the Energy systems of developed societies

1. The Aligned and Related Risks from Climate Change and Peak Fossil Fuels

1a. Key Conclusions
The Low Carbon Transition in Energy in developed countries is inevitable (Climate Change Act, 2008; EU Package, 2008; UNFCCC Kyoto Protocol, 1997); yet policy thinking and decision-making seems to still focus on the debateable “how to do it” rather than the more essential “how long do we have ?” If the window of opportunity for industrialised society to de-Carbonise proves to foreshorten rapidly, then the next few decades could be a story of economic collapse, unless there is concentrated, concerted endeavour (Sustainable Business, 2010).

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Bad Science Climate Change Non-Science Political Nightmare Social Change

Zombie Climate Change Sceptic Arguments

Some bad ideas just won’t die.

Here’s Skeptical Science’s regularly updated list of the hottest and battiest Climate Change “sceptic” arguments :-

https://www.skepticalscience.com/argument.php

And here’s the full, and updateable list of nearly 250 “sceptical” arguments that have been weighed in the balance and found erroneously wanting :-

https://www.skepticalscience.com/resources.php

Why do these arguments keep coming back from the grave with their great big evil green zombie eyes and their matted, bird’s nest zombie hair and their outstretched murderous arms ?

Who is promoting and protecting these vampire lies ?

Who are the stinking, rotting funders of disinformation on Climate Change ?

I think we should find out, and ask them to stop.

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Big Picture Climate Change Political Nightmare Social Change

Permanent Session of the Climate Security Council

Ed Miliband put on his favourite suit, shirt and cufflinks today and ruminated at the Environmental Audit Committee in the House of Commons in the United Kingdom Parliament (all you Americans can stop reading now : none of what follows will concern you) :-

https://www.parliamentlive.tv/Main/Player.aspx?meetingId=6084

One of his many views was that there should be a more permanent nature to the ongoing international Climate Change negotiations, and I entirely agree.

Ed Miliband said he didn’t think that there should be a “repeat” of what happened at the Copenhagen UNFCCC conference in December 2009. I also agree with that.

Goodness gracious me ! I find myself in agreement with Ed Miliband !

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Bad Science Climate Change Media Non-Science Political Nightmare

Institute of Physics Nosedive

Is the Institute of Physics “prestigious” ?

Well, of course, they are highly honoured, and have prestige, but I’m talking about the other meaning, of a sense of cunning, that lingers on in the French word for conjurer or magician : prestidigitateur : the speed of thinking gives capacity to move the fingers almost undetectably to create an illusion.

Several commentators have remarked on the similarity between the Institute of Physics submission to the Science and Technology Committee on “Climategate” and the arguments of several noted Climate Change sceptics.

The fact that James Delingpole loved it up should have been a clue to all the bug hunters out there that all was not well with the submission from the IoP :-

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Big Picture British Sea Power Carbon Capture Climate Change Cost Effective Energy Revival Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Social Change Technological Sideshow Vote Loser Wind of Fortune

Green Energy : Stuck in the Sidings

If you can imagine the engine for new, renewable and sustainable Energy systems as a train which should by now be thundering down the tracks, get this : it left the depot only to get stuck in the sidings.

Enough of the locomotive metaphors, already. On to the analysis. Here’s an excerpt from Catherine Mitchell’s fine book “The Political Economy of Sustainable Energy” (2008, 2010) :-

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Divide & Rule Peace not War Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Social Change

Israel Steals Gaza’s Gas

As suspected, the State of Israel has declared the Natural Gas off the coast of Gaza as theirs, and are seeking to develop it, for their own profit, naturally :-

https://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5gyOgkiUE3uul0OXEW-VL-E9k6aKgD9E6JMI80

“Energy exec: Israel could end natural gas imports : By KAROUN DEMIRJIAN (AP) : TEL AVIV, Israel — A U.S. energy company announced Tuesday that a project it is developing off the Israeli coast could soon end the country’s longtime dependence on natural gas imports. Noble Energy Chief Executive Charles D. Davidson said the Tamar gas field — set to become operational in 2012 — will allow Israel to meet its own energy needs, and potentially even become an exporter of fuel. “Our thoughts are that will exceed what the market will need,” Davidson said. “It’s significant to Israel and what it can do for this country in terms of lowering energy costs.”…A national supply of natural gas could mean major energy savings for Israeli citizens, as well as revenue for the government from corporate taxes and profit royalties, Davidson said…”

So, we could ask the Israeli Ambassador in London, was it worth expending all that expensive military hardware from your considerable foreign-funded assets, just to make sure nobody would have the strength to complain that you are taking control of Gaza’s gas ?

Gaza is not in a fit state to exploit the fuel itself ? Why would that be, Mr Israeli Ambassador ? Could it have anything to do with the illegal carpet bombing of the open prison on the Western shore in Christmas 2008 ? The gas finds are a little too conveniently described as taking place in “early 2009″. I find myself feeling queasy.

Even Israel does not have the engineering capacity to exploit the Natural Gas – they need the assistance of an American company…”Noble Energy”. I think they should be re-christened “Ignoble Energy”.

Not content with appropriating the water, land, wells, olive trees, liberty, children, health and livelihoods of the Palestinian people of Gaza, the State of Israel now has to steal a resource that could have provided them some form of Economic Development.

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Climate Change Growth Paradigm Political Nightmare Social Change Technological Sideshow Utter Futility Vain Hope

Sidetracked

Sidetracked
by Jo Abbess
19 February 2010

A number of prevalent ideological frameworks employed for constructing policy to address Global Warming appear to have faulty foundational analysis and are therefore ineffective in addressing Carbon Dioxide Emissions. Politically implementable options that could lead to effective action to combat Climate Change are being kicked into the long grass at every turn, in policy, in investment and in society.

Reasonable proposals are being made over-complex to implement, or delayed by every means possible. The dominant memes of economics hinder good decision-making; for example, not all natural capital can be valued as a commodity, and yet Carbon markets and Carbon tax regimes are the most ubiquitous proposals.

The cheapest options for efficiency are overlooked for subsidy-attracting large-scale projects; and wholescale sustainability approaches are being discarded in favour of focus on obsessional marginal issues such as recycling.

The imperative to deliberately orient investment towards Low Carbon energy is lost in the haze of planning based on non-solutions such as the renaissance of Nuclear Power and Carbon Capture and Storage in the pursuit of so-called “Clean” Coal.

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Climate Change Political Nightmare Public Relations

Stop Climate Chaos – Ask the Climate Question

https://www.youtube.com/cop15

There is an unelected, shadowy organisation in the United Kingdom; a cultish community of thousands, and their minions, that plots to dictate the leadership of the whole world, starting with the minds of the central Government.

You’ll see them at work in the run-up to the General Election, possibly suspicious figures masquerading as angels of light in brightly coloured costumes and carrying jokey banners; meddling in democracy at every level – leafletting, holding meetings, putting posters in their front windows and holding consciousness-raising green-fests in their local Town Halls.

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Bad Science Climate Change Media Non-Science Political Nightmare Public Relations The Data

Send a Sceptic to Siberia

Yawn. Yet another anti-Science web log page floats into my field of vision. It’s so…boring, trying to keep up with the Global Warming Deniers. I can barely keep awake. Here’s an example of the trite, and frankly, petulant genre :-

https://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/news/jamesdelingpole/100023339/james-hansen-would-you-buy-a-used-temperature-data-set-from-this-man/

Actually, don’t bother reading it. It’s a waste of column inches.

If only the Climate Change Sceptics would just go away and let us get on with the gargantuan task of revitalising the Energy industry around sustainable technologies.

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Big Picture Climate Change Political Nightmare Social Change Unutterably Useless Utter Futility

Copenhagen in Retrospectacular

Talk to almost anybody who went to the Copenhagen Conference on Climate Change, or waited outside the Bella Center for hours in sub-zero temperatures with no hope of admittance, or who cycled to Denmark from Middle England wanting to take part in the most important meeting the world has ever held, and they’ll tell you how despondent they are.

The United Nations Climate Change talks in Denmark in December 2009 were an “abject failure”, a “washout”, “pointless”, “undermined by corporate interests”, “derailed by China”, “overruled by the United States”, and so the list of complaints rolls on.

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Big Picture Climate Change Divide & Rule Political Nightmare

Pershing Missile Strikes United Nations

The United States of America have launched their secret bearded missile at the United Nations – Jonathan Pershing – in a direct strike on the international Climate Change negotiations.

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jan/14/climate-talks-un-sidelined

“America sees a diminished role for the United Nations in trying to stop global warming after the “chaotic” Copenhagen climate change summit, an Obama administration official said today. Jonathan Pershing, who helped lead talks at Copenhagen, instead sketched out a future path for negotiations dominated by the world’s largest polluters such as China, the US, India, Brazil and South Africa, who signed up to a deal in the final hours of the summit. That would represent a realignment of the way the international community has dealt with climate change over the last two decades…Pershing said… “But it is also impossible to imagine a negotiation of enormous complexity where you have a table of 192 countries involved in all the detail.”…The lack of confidence in the UN extends to the $30bn (£18.5bn) global fund, which will be mobilised over the next three years to help poor countries adapt to climate change. “The UN didn’t manage the conference that well,” Pershing said. “I am not sure that any of us are particularly confident that the UN managing the near-term financing is the right way to go.”…”

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Climate Change Political Nightmare Protest & Survive

Anthony Giddens : Demonising Environmentalism

The further I read into Anthony Giddens’ “landmark study” on Climate Change politics, the more I want to offer it to a fuel-poor elderly neighbour :-

https://www.metro.co.uk/news/807821-pensioners-burn-books-for-warmth

“Miles Erwin – 5th January, 2010 : Pensioners burn books for warmth : Hard-up pensioners have resorted to buying books from charity shops and burning them to keep warm. Volunteers have reported that ‘a large number’ of elderly customers are snapping up hardbacks as cheap fuel for their fires and stoves…”

I have taken a fat orange highlighter pen to his more tendentious and incensing statements, and am scratching comments in the margins to indicate my extreme displeasure.

What is it about Anthony Giddens’ phraseology that so irritates me ? I’ll pass over the more nebulous, inaccurate rubbish like his mention of “political scientists” – politics is no more science than the study of fine art. And I’ll try really hard not to call him ideologically-challenged, based on his references to unproven economic theories as if they were axiomatic facts.

My key dislike to his approach seems to be crystallising around his dismissiveness of other peoples’ points of view; his loose, callous talk is likely to alienate a good many people, and he needs repudiation.

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Behaviour Changeling Climate Change Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Voluntary Behaviour Change

Anthony Giddens : The Politics of Habit

The habitual trend in politics is to utter without having done sufficient research, just relying on cultural assumptions, watercooler talk, hearsay and what you read in the newspapers, which is dumbed down and always resorts to cultural prejudices.

At least Anthony Giddens in his book “The Politics of Climate Change”, attempts to get beyond that kind of gutter press and move into the heady air of the moral mountain heights. But he takes with him some extraordinarily unhelpful baggage, Classical Economics being part of it. Plus, an inability to see the wood for the trees.

Allow me to quote from his Introduction :-

https://books.google.com/books?id=yXJKxmd2tWgC&printsec=frontcover&cd=1&source=gbs_ViewAPI#v=onepage&q=&f=false

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Climate Change Marvellous Wonderful Political Nightmare Public Relations

Gordon Brown Saves The World (2)

Besides announcing lots of money for Renewable Energy :-

https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2010/jan/03/gordon-brown-wind-energy-programme

Gordon Brown is confident that he can steer the international Climate negotiations to a successful, sign-up-to-able deal :-

https://uk.reuters.com/article/idUKTRE6021AT20100103

“Brown says climate change agreement possible : Sun Jan 3, 2010 : Prime Minister Gordon Brown said on Sunday he believed a global agreement to combat climate change might still be possible despite the limited results of last month’s Copenhagen meeting. “I’ve got an idea about how we can actually move this forward over the next few months and I’ll be working on this,” Brown told the BBC, when asked what came next after the U.N. climate talks in Copenhagen. “I think it’s not impossible that the groundwork that was done at Copenhagen could lead to what you might call a global agreement that everybody is happy to stand by,” Brown said. “I’ll be working on that in the next few months and I can see a way forward because what prevented an agreement was suspicion and fear and forms of protectionism that I think we’ve got to get over,” he said, without giving details of his plan…”