Author: Jo

The Energy Bill Revolution

This is a story about jaded doubt, through which shines a skinny, pale, wavering ray of hope – a tale of ordinary folk not believing Government policy will “work”, yet trying to make the best of the poor situation all the same. This is the account of a Parliamentary Reception for The Energy Bill Revolution.

The nice young man with the thoroughly Welsh name, Rhys Williams, who’s been in the job for the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group (PRASEG) for a sum total of 10 working days, if I’ve counted that right, sent me a shiny email invitation to a Summer Reception in The House of Commons, organised by the All Party Parliamentary Fuel Poverty & Energy Efficiency Group (FPEEG) and PRASEG. So orf I trotted to a feast of miniature canapes covered with dead things and a veritable sea of state-provisioned wine – which I didn’t touch a drip of. It was Summer, and very sunny and hot, and nationally-funded alcohol would have given me a migraine.

I took in the cool breeze of The Thames from the Terrace Pavilion – it seemed at high tide as there was lots of debris sloopily bobbing past. A Good Year blimp buzzed like a jar of wasps overhead – “Safety Together”, it read. I questioned, as a matter of national security, whether anything was supposed to be flying directly over the Houses of Parliament. It was pointed out to me that the wind was quite strong up there and the dirigible motors probably couldn’t keep it on a straight course over the river. Whilst I was supping my iced orange juice, I was buttonholed by Jimmy Devlin of the North West Tenants and Residents Assembly. We discussed a number of things, including : revolution (he thinks people are going to rise up and get their share, and I think people are too poor and busy to get political); fuel poverty and carbon savings (I agree with him that carbon taxation is going to create extra expenses for the poor, but I disagree with him over climate change, because I’ve studied the science); non-hierarchical community leadership (the old models are failing) and Freemasonry in the Police (he’s ex). We did agree that democracy is suffering from a lack of engagement, and that social breakdown in some cases is becoming violent. We also agreed that it seems that the Occupy movement has been infested or even misdirected (he said fragmented) by covert agents of the state. He indicated that a number of former environmental activists that he’s known are now strongly protagonist for the social justice agenda. He became scathing about UK Government policy on renewable energy, saying that it was astonishing that it had been recently announced that all subsidies for wind power and solar power would be gone by 2020.

Anyway, then we were both buttonholed by Geoffrey Beacon of Beacon Dodsworth. He’d been earwigging, and he wanted to know why I was against carbon pricing and taxation. I said, well, carbon dioxide is a virtual, negative commodity that nobody wants to pay for, so it will always get paid by the most vulnerable – so we would be better spending money in a positive, economy-stimulating way, such as investing in renewable energy and energy conservation. He said that a carbon tax of £400 per tonne would do the trick. I said that carbon will never be permitted to be priced at £400 a tonne – there are too many forces against it.

Well then, before any further debate could take place we were called in for the speeches. Up at the podium is Alan Whitehead MP. He says he’s not going to give a speech, but then outlines his support for the campaign in a number of points, which he then admits was rather like a speech, in fact, and then introduces Caroline Lucas MP (everybody has to keep biting their lips to stop themselves from saying “Leader of the Green Party”). As usual, Caroline cuts the situation down to the bones – the social elements of the Energy Bill are going to be the Green Deal (cheap loans for householders to do energy efficiency and renewable energy, financed by the new partly state-funded Green Investment Bank) and the Energy Company Obligation (ECO – an obligation on energy companies to enable transformation of “hard to treat properties” and provide affordable warmth, which will be funded out of energy consumers’ bills).

She said that the ECO Carbon Saving Obligation (CSO) will quite probably benefit rich property owners – and yet be paid for by bill increases for the poor.

Next up was Dr Hilary Emery, Chief Executive Officer of the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), and she talked about the impact of fuel poverty on the young poor – as this is not often mentioned – whereas older people in fuel poverty often are. She said it wasn’t right that people have to choose between “eat” and “heat”. She invited two children from the NCB to speak – they were amazing.

Then we got to hear from Adam Scorer of Consumer Focus. He said that the Carbon Price Floor proposed for the Energy Bill (Electricity Market Reform) was “not my favourite choice of policy”, but that with the extra billions of revenue it could generate, a lot could be done to truly tackle Fuel Poverty.

Then, up last, was “Mr Energy Bill Revolution” Ed Matthew, who tried not to be too technical, but laid out a vision of energy efficiency being the basis on which the British economy could be resurrected – through addressing energy cost increases and providing employment. Ah, the sweet smell of new jobs.

I spoke to Adam Scorer after the speeches, and tried to clarify what he meant by showing distaste for the Carbon Floor Price proposals. I asked how realistic it was to ask the Government to give up all that juicy carbon revenue to social projects – given that a range of organisations and causes will be after the same pot of money – including the nuclear power bunch. He said that everything is impossible until it happens – and that despite support, the Energy Bill Revolution could be blocked so easily by a “Treasury says no” statement. He did say though, that without “wilful bloodyminded individuals” like Ed Matthew, “nothing would ever happen”.

I spoke to Ed Matthew – ex Friends of the Earth, and now with his own group Transform UK. He’s done some stuff on the Green Investment Bank and now he’s pushing the Energy Bill Revolution. We agreed that if we’re going to have carbon taxation or pricing of some sort, then we do need to make sure that we speak up for using at least some of this money for Fuel Poverty alleviation. With approximately (depending on how you count it) 11.5 million people in poverty (and approximately 2.5 million children), putting a carbon tax or price in place will only hurt the poor harder by increasing energy costs. There needs to be a mechanism that stops this from depressing economic activity any further than it is already squelched – a mechanism to address energy demand, create jobs and solve social issues is what’s required. He said that if there’s no carbon price floor, we would have to rely on revenue from the Emissions Trading Scheme – which will fluctuate more – and jeopardise investment confidence. We should be demanding carbon revenue for the right purposes – there’s a report they did with Cambridge Econometrics saying the same kind of thing.

I then went on to speak with people from Carillion – who were quite sceptical about the Green Deal – that many people could be ripped off by the fact that there will be multiple agencies involved in any one project – with each firm wishing to do their own assessments and possibly doing work the householders don’t need. The view was expressed that what needs to happen is that the Government stops wasting money on consultations, reports and consultancy and just invests in energy efficiency and energy conservation projects directly. We discussed how Local Authorities are expected to be handling the social aspects of the new Energy Bill – but that with shrinking budgets and ever-smaller staffing, energy conservation – such things as the Green Deal and fuel-saving Combined Heat and Power projects – are likely to never make it off the ground.

I went on to speak to Karen Klomp, Energy Strategy Officer at the London Borough of Lambeth. We discussed the primeval problem – that energy companies want to sell as much energy as they can, whilst climate change legislation requires effectively (until renewable energy is more prevalent) that total energy demand is reduced. We talked about which energy companies are evolving into Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) – which are training their own insulation, draught-proofing and renewable energy installers, and which are contracting this out (with all the problems this could entail).

I took the opportunity to mention to her that I am researching Renewable Gas (whilst being in the in-between phase of having completed a Masters degree and now wondering what to do with the rest of my life). I said I’m about to launch a survey to engineering and energy firms asking them about how much Renewable Gas they are making, and the trends. I said I was trying to raise this subject because some people are discussing the upcoming UK Government “Gas Strategy”. We disussed where gas in the UK economy is going to come from in future.

She spoke of various projects she is running – how they are trying to make the best use of various schemes and grants before they run out. She projected that she would be selling the idea of the benefits of the Green Deal to her local authority and related organisations. She and I agreed that policy as a whole was quite weak and compromised – but that this is what we’ve got to work with – so we need to run with it (or ice-skate – she is originally from The Netherlands, after all).

As I was leaving, I exchanged a wave and a nod with Jim Devlin. I asked him what he was going to do to promote the Energy Bill Revolution and his answer was : “wind 6.8 million residents up – and let them do the work”.

This is the briefing from The Energy Bill Revolution :-

“Families are suffering huge financial hardship, and one in four households can’t afford to heat their homes. Cold homes are damaging the health of our most vulnerable citizens, including children and older people. The Energy Bill Revolution is an alliance of more than 80 children’s charities, environment groups, unions, health & disability groups, consumer groups and businesses, calling on the Government to use the money it gets from carbon taxes to make our homes super-energy efficient. This is the only permanent solution to end fuel poverty and drive down energy bills. The Energy Bill Revolution could quadruple carbon emission savings compared to the Government’s new energy efficiency policies, and create up to 200,000 more jobs – exactly what we need to support the UK’s economic recovery.”

I am fully aware that this campaign could have been launched by Coalition empathisers to prop up the Energy Bill – which is widely being criticised (Greg Barker MP was supposed to attend but I don’t think I saw him. Maybe he was avoiding me. However, Chris Huhne MP did flit past at one point, and I saw John Prescott MP (with a walking stick) on the baize-green carpet stairs on the way out.)

Considering that some of the people in the room supporting the Energy Bill Revolution campaign could stand to benefit from the success of the Green Investment Bank, their motives might not be entirely charitable.

On the other hand, Fuel Poverty is a genuine social need, and addressing it could avoid people being driven further into deprivation. So, despite the fact that I think carbon pricing and taxation is entirely the wrong thing to do (instead we should invest positively in renewables and conservation), if this is the card we are dealt in the Energy Bill, then I think we should definitely “hypothecate” some of the revenue towards the alleviation of economic depression – for the sake of the kids.

More of a grudging acceptance to work with what we’re given rather than a “revolution”, though.

Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Big Number Big Picture Big Society British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Corporate Pressure Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Energy Socialism Foreign Interference Foreign Investment Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Green Investment Green Power Hydrocarbon Hegemony Insulation Low Carbon Life Marine Gas Methane Madness Methane Management Money Sings National Energy National Power Not In My Name Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Coal Peak Emissions Peak Energy Peak Natural Gas Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Resource Wards Shale Game Solution City Stop War The Power of Intention The Price of Gas Unconventional Foul Ungreen Development Unnatural Gas Wasted Resource Western Hedge Wind of Fortune Zero Net

Gas in the UK (3)

Bursting the Nuclear Bubble

The UK Government appear to have seen the light about their, frankly, rubbish plan to covertly invest in (by hidden subsidies) a spanking new fleet of nuclear power reactors.

Dogged by Electricite de France (EdF) as they have been, with Vincent de Rivaz continuing to proffer his begging bowl with outstretched pleading arms, it just might be that before the Energy Bill is finally announced –

when the Electricity Market Reform (EMR) dust has settled – that this new thinking will have become core solidity.

After all, there are plenty of reasons not to support new nuclear power – apart from the immense costs, the unclear costs, the lack of immediate power generation until at least a decade of concrete has been poured, and so on (and so forth).

Gas is Laughing

It appears that reality has bitten – and that the UK Government are pursuing gas. And they have decided not to hatch their eggs all in one basket. First of all, there’s a love-in with Statoil of Norway :-

https://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn12_072/pn12_072.aspx
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9316935/French-president-Francois-Hollande-cuts-retirement-age.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18344831
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-praises-uknorway-energy-linkup-7826436.html
https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/jun/07/energy-uk-norway-oil-gas-renewables

Then, there’s the new “South Stream” commitment – the new Azerbaijan-European Union agreement, spelled out in a meeting of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) on 12th June at King’s College, London :-

https://www.eucers.eu/2012/06/07/5-eucers-energy-talk-the-southern-gas-corridor-at-the-home-stretch/
https://abc.az/eng/news/65475.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Azerbaijan-Turkey-Deepen-their-Energy-Ties.html
https://euobserver.com/19/116394
https://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag02.html

Meanwhile, the “North Stream” gas pipeline is going to feed new Russian gas to Europe, too (since the old Siberian gas fields have become exhausted) :-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15637244
https://www.nord-stream.com/pipeline/
https://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/mega-yamal/
https://www.gpilondon.com/index.php?id=325

And then there’s the amazing new truth – Natural Gas is a “green” energy, according to the European Union :-

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/29/gas-rebranded-green-energy-eu

The UK will still be importing Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from our good old friends in Qatar. Never mind the political interference in the nearby region and the human rights abuses, although NATO could be asked to put a stop to that if Europe needed to bust the regime in order for their energy companies to take ownership of the lovely, lovely gas. I mean, that’s what happened in Iraq and Libya, didn’t it ?

A Fossilised Future

So, despite all the green noises from the UK Government, the underlying strategy for the future (having batted away the nuclear buzzing insects around the corpse of British energy policy), is as Steve Browning, formerly of National Grid says – “gas and air” – with Big Wind power being the commercialisable renewable technology of choice. But not too much wind power – after all, the grid could become unstable, couldn’t it, with too much wind ?

There are several problems with this. First, the commitment to fossil fuels – even Natural Gas with its half the emissions profile of coal – is a risky strategy, despite making sure that supplies are secure in the near term. The reasons for this are geological as well as geopolitical. Natural Gas will peak, and even the UK Government accepts that unconventional gas will not keep fossil gas going forever – even with the “18 years” ultimate recoverable from under Lancashire of shale gas (that’s “18 years” of current gas annual demand – but not all drilled at once – perhaps amounting to about 1.5% of current UK gas supply needs per year, stretched out over 40 years) , and the billion tonnes of coal that can be gasified from under the sea off the east coast of England. As long as Carbon Capture and Storage can work.

Not only will Natural Gas peak and start to decline in the UK, it will also peak and decline in the various other foreign resources the UK is promising to buy. By simple logic – if the North Sea gas began depletion after only 30 years – and this was a top quality concentrated resource – how soon will poorer quality gas fields start depleting ?

Whilst I recognise the sense in making Natural Gas the core strategy of UK energy provision over the next few decades, it can never be a final policy. First off, we need rather more in terms of realistic support for the deployment of renewable electricity. People complained about onshore wind turbines, so the UK Government got into offshore wind turbines, and now they’re complaining at how expensive they are. Then they botched solar photovoltaics policy. What a palaver !

Besides a much stronger direction for increasing renewable electricity, we need to recognise that renewable resources of gas need to be developed, starting now. We need to be ready to displace fossil gas as the fossil gas fields show signs of depletion and yet global demand and growth still show strength. We need to recognise that renewable gas development initiatives need consistent central government financial and enabling policy support. We need to recognise that even with the development of renewable gas, supplies of gas as a whole may yet peak – and so we need to acknowledge that we can never fully decarbonise the energy networks unless we find ways to apply energy conservation and energy efficiency into all energy use – and that this currently conflicts with the business model for most energy companies – to sell as much energy as possible. We need mandates for insulation, efficient fossil fuel use – such as Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and efficient grids, appliances and energy distribution. Since energy is mostly privately owned and privately administered, energy conservation is the hardest task of all, and this will take heroic efforts at all levels of society to implement.

Academic Freedom Alchemical Assets not Liabilities Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Corporate Pressure Design Matters Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Drive Train Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Engineering Marvel Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Gas Storage Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Hydrogen Economy Low Carbon Life Major Shift Methane Management Money Sings National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Coal Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Shale Game Solution City Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The Price of Gas The War on Error Unconventional Foul Unnatural Gas Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Wasted Resource Zero Net

Gas in the UK (2)

…Continued from https://www.joabbess.com/2012/06/12/gas-in-the-uk/

Questions from the floor

[Tony Glover]

…increasing electricification of heat and transport. I was interested in what Doug said about heat. [If energy conservation measures are significant and there is] a significant reduction in gas use for heat…interested in the Minister’s response.

[Terry ? (Member of PRASEG)]

I’m interested in gas that would need CCS [Carbon Capture and Storage] [in future] …[since there would be no restriction there would be an] incentive to build new gas in next few years away from CCS-usable infrastructure. Maybe encouraging gas stations over next few years to be built in view of CCS.

[ ? ]

[There have been mentions of the] Gas [generation] Strategy and gas storage. Is it your intention to have both in the Energy Bill ? [Need to improve investor confidence.]

[Charles Hendry MP] I’m more confident than Doug on CHP…[in respect of energy conservation we will begin to increase our use of] CHP [Combined Heat and Power], geothermal energy, don’t need District Heating. I think we’ll see more people switch to electric heating. The likely pricing on gas will mean people have to look at other sources – such as localised heat storage, intelligent ways to produce hot water and heat in their homes […for example, a technology to store heat for several days…] The first [new gas power] plants will be where they are already consented – where originally coal plants – need to have identified in advance – no new plant is consented unless…We’ve asked Ofgem to ask re securing gas supplies. If we can stretch out the tail of North Sea gas – can stretch it out 30 – 40 years […] technology […] Centrica / Norway […] develop contracts […] Is there a role for strategic storage [Centrica asking] […] Buying and selling at the wrong price (like the gold) [widespread chuckling in the room]. Some of it may not need legislation. Gas Strategy will be published before the Energy Bill.

[David Cox] Get very nervous about gas storage. Don’t think there’s a need to put financial incentives in place to increase gas storage. We think the hybrid gas market is successful – a market and regulatory framework – [gas storage incentives] could damage.

[Doug Parr] I’m not downbeat because I want to be downbeat on heat. [Of all the solutions proposed none of them show] scaleability, deliverability. I’d love that to come true – but will it ? […] Heat pumps ? Biogas is great but is it really going to replace all that gas ? If we’re going to be using gas we need to make the best use of it […] Issues around new plant / replacement – all about reducing risks no exposing ourselves to [it] – security of supply, climate risks, issues about placement [siting of new plant]. If CCS can really be made to work – it’s a no-brainer – do we want all that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or … ? Our entire policy becomes dependent on a technology that hasn’t even been demonstrated. Other technologies that people thought were great – years later they still haven’t arrived [for example, rooftop wind turbines]. If we say CCS is the only way it’s going to work – what’s Plan B ? We are going to use [fossil fuels] – should not become wholly dependent on technology not yet demonstrated.

[Alan Whitehead] Perhaps people should be asked – which would you prefer – a CHP / DH [Combined Heat and Power / District Heating] plant in the valley here, or a couple of wind turbines on that hill ? That would [shake things up].

Questions from the floor

[ X ? ] See […] as the ultimate destination. Most important – gas can be made zero carbon – not pie in the sky. 1. Start contributions of carbon-neutral gas and 2. will need far less if [we act] like Japan – force installation of microCHP. Their aim is to do same as for washing machines [bring prices down – make widely available for the home]. MicroCHP [with] heat pumps – reduction as good as decarbonising gas or electricity. But can also decarbonise gas.

[ X ? ] The Minister mentioned the importance of CHP but recently dropped […] mandate. If CHP so important what measures is the Government taking to ensure its installation ?

[ X ? ] Electricity is a rubbish fuel for heating buildings – very peaky load – need something cheap to store, cheap to […]. Fits very well with forcing down demand. Where we’re getting our gas from. At the moment our waste is being incinerated. For a cheap additional cost, where currently incinerating we can do anaerobic digestion [AD], producing a fungible asset – the gas – can gradually decarbonise our grid.

[ Thomas Grier ? ] …a decision [?] of London – CHP in London over the next few years. If we want to use electricity for heat, we need to reinforce the electricity grid [by 60% to 90% ?] In rural situations – use electrical heating. In urban, use decarbonised energy. [This model projection] shows the gas grid disappearing – it will collapse at some point if all we have on the gas grid is cooking.

[ X ? ] …[encouraged CHP then a few days later] stood up then said all support [removed ?] for CHP next year. A Heat Strategy that said there is enormous [scope / potential] for CHP. We want to see gas, we want to see efficiency. Are we moving towards […] without it they won’t build it.

[David Cox] Microgeneration – couldn’t get it down economically. Reliability [issues]. Full supporter of biogas – AD got a contribution to make – but never more than 5% – no matter how much [we crack it]. Electricity is not very good for heating – but how to we decarbonise the heat sector ? Always been an advocate of CHP. Government need to do more incentivising of that.

[Charles Hendry MP] Innovation and invention […] Government can’t support all emerging technologies. Best brains around the world [are working on] how we move fundamentally in a low carbon direction. On the waste hierarchy – burning of waste should be the final stage – finding a better use for it. [I visited] the biggest AD plant in Europe in Manchester – biogas and electricity generation. We are seeing Local Authorities taking a more constructive long-term view on how to manage waste. CHP – we all want to see more of it – to what extent does it need support ? That depends on whether new build – building a community around it. [By comparison, urban retrofitting is probably too expensive] Iceland [took the decision and] retrofitted almost every home – I’m now more convinced than before. What is the right level of subsidy and what makes good economic case ?

[Doug] We do keep missing opportunities. [For example in Wales, Milford Haven, the new Combined Cycle Gas Turbine at the Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) refinery to process the gas] should have been CHP. I am enthusiastic about lots of heat technologies [but the same questions/issues apply] scaleability and deliverability. District heating [DH] – an infrastructure asset ! [Can change priorities about what gets built – for example in Denmark (?)] they’re building large-scale solar farms to top up the DH. In the Treasury’s infrastructure plan [see DH could be…] Heat is the poor relation in energy debate. Other networks have been identified in the National Policy Statements (NPS) – but not heat.

[ Leonie Green, Renewable Energy Association ] [I must] defend heat pumps. In Sweden 90% of new builds [hav e heat pumps ?] – heat pump efficiency is a function of the energy-efficiency of the building […] Just on AD – National Grid report said it could provide 50% [of the nation’s supply. Our members think] that’s a bit too high – we think 25%. My question is really about the benefits. We are hearing anxiety about costs, but it’s piecemeal on benefits. We’ve been strong on jobs, balance of trade, exports [all benefits of renewable energy investment and deployment]. Pleased to see DECC put out [report from] Oxford Economics [on the] wider economic benefits. How can we get more and more balance in reports. [An example] Deutsche Bank renewable generation opportunities.

[ ? ] We would also support more than 5% from renewable gas – also about hydrogen – we used to do it when it was town gas – why not again ? As regards injecting biomethane/biogas from AD into the National Grid [last year ? to this year ?] 130 enquiries to connect AD to our network – none have progressed. Please sort these [registrations] out.

[ ? ] Minister, we’re not expecting you to fund all technologies – we need some logic – especially with transport. The Government doesn’t recognise the difference between Renewable Natural Gas if used in transport and fossil fuels. Would be simple – a tax on gas if used in a vehicle. What’s the problem over […] ?

[Colin Snape, University of Nottingham] We are looking at reducing the costs of carbon capture – we have a section of PhDs… One other gas source not mentioned – gas from underground gasification of coal [UCG]. In UK […] 2 billion tonners of coal – slightly offshore – on the energy coast of the UK – where all the action is on CCS – obviously UCG needs to be coupled with CCS to be carbon neutral. Would [be operational] in a very short time period […incentives…]. Significant proportion of UK needs.

[ ? ] What is the purpose of the Gas Strategy ? Shale gas isn’t a miracle. The “Golden Age of Gas” [report by the International Energy Agency (IEA)] doesn’t mean cheap gas, because [it will be put to] lots of uses. Renewable electricity and nuclear are not going to come until the 2020s. How do we avoid building loads of gas generation that is not necessary after that time ? What’s the role of mothballing (relatively cheap to bring CCGT out of mothballs comparing to build new). No sign of reduction in electricity demand reduction – therefore there will be high gas use.

[ Doug Parr ] On UCG, the IEA had two scenarios in the “Golden Age of Gas” – both took us over 3.5 degrees Celsius [in additional global warming]. Even if there is unconventional gas sources, still a huge danger of going down the road of unrestrained gas use. What is the alternative ? We should not end up becoming dependent on gas. Should not build gas to fill a short-term hole – they will lobby for their own interests – to keep open.

[ David Cox ] CCGTs won’t be built without guarantees greater than 20 years. Also renewable energy might not provide in the way that we hope. The CCC report – what caused the rise in energy prices ? The wholesale gas price – not renewable energy, green policies. However, that was slightly dishonest – the counter-factual was […] renewable energy significantly still more expensive than fossil fuel there. Until we can get costs of renewable energy down to the prices of fossil fuels… [The industry] don’t give the impression [they will build] on the basis of short-term need. Gas isn’t clean, I admit that […] CCS – that will work.

[Charles Hendry MP] A lot comes back to a need for a balanced approach – carbon targets and security of supply. If you haven’t sorted out security of supply, the electorate will not give permission to go low carbon. Gas is a hedging fuel currently but don’t know where costs going over time. As a politician, I like pipelines – know where it’s going (not like LNG, where there was limited use of new LNG import plant). If we want Scandinavian gas, we need security of demand to build the new pipeline. How we deal with issues of biomethane – in 2 years – need to make more progress. Some of these [techologies] will be gamechangers – some, look back in a couple of years… [Need a] permissive framework to allow a lot of ideas and technologies. There is no source of energy that hasn’t required subsidy in early days. Fanciful to suggest new forms of energy can come through without support. The letters we get [from the public, from constituents] are on vehicle fuel costs, not how much their gas bill went up last winter…

Official end of meeting

A gaggle of people gathered in the hallway to discuss some items further.

The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) was generally criticised – as it contains measures likely to specifically benefit nuclear power. Electricite de France was identified as very involved. The Government had said “no nuclear subsidy”, but the EMR measures are equivalent to hidden subsidies.

The Levy Cap was criticised as it would disturb investor confidence – if several nuclear reactors came on-stream in 10 years time, in the same year, they would eat up the whole subsidy budget for that year – and other technologies would lose out. If was felt that a number of the EMR proposals were “blunt instruments”, not overcoming shortcomings of former levies and subsidies.

Although the EMR was designed to addressed economic fears, it wasn’t assisting with financing risks – if anything it was adding to them. Rates of return have to be guaranteed for loans to be made – chopping and changing subsidies doesn’t allow for that.

Leonie Green said that the REA members don’t like the Premium Feed-in-Tariff (FiT). She also said later that they were not pleased about the cuts in support for AD.

Since my personal interest is in using Renewable Gas of various sources (including Biomethane / Biogas) to displace Natural Gas from the gas grid, I spoke with various people about this informally (including a woman I met on the train on my way home – who really got the argument about decarbonising gas by developing Renewable Gas, and using that to store excess renewable electricity, and use it as backup for renewable electricity. Although she did say “it won’t be done if it won’t confer benefits”.). One of the key elements for developing Renewable Gas is to create a stream of Renewable Hydrogen, produced in a range of ways. Somebody asked me what the driver would be for progress in Renewable Hydrogen production ? I said the “pull” was supposed to be the fabled “Hydrogen Economy” for transport, but that this isn’t really happening. I said the need for increased sources of renewably-sourced gas will become progressively clear – perhaps within a decade.

One of the persons present talked about how they think the Government is now coming out of the nuclear dream world – how only a few of the proposed new reactors will get built in the next decade – and how the Government now need to come up with a more realistic scenario.

It was mentioned that is appears that the Biogas technologies are going to have the same treatment as solar photovoltaics – some sort of subsidies at the start – which get cut away far too early – before it can stand on its own two feet. This was said to be the result of an underlying theory that only a fixed amount of money should be used on launching each new technology – with no thought to continuity problems – especially as regards investment and loan structures.

Academic Freedom Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Coal Hell Cost Effective Design Matters Drive Train Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Insecurity Engineering Marvel Foreign Interference Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Marvellous Wonderful Methane Management Money Sings National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Optimistic Generation Peak Coal Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Shale Game Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow The Price of Gas The War on Error Transport of Delight Unnatural Gas Wasted Resource Wind of Fortune Zero Net

Gas in the UK

Post author By Jo
Post date June 12, 2012
No Comments on Gas in the UK

“The role of gas in the UK’s energy mix” 12 June 2012 17:30 – 18:30, Committee Room 5, House of Commons with speakers Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, Charles Hendry; David Cox, Managing Director of The Gas Forum and Dr Doug Parr, Chief Scientist of Greenpeace UK. Chaired by Dr Alan Whitehead MP, Chairman of PRASEG, the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group, who called the seminar : https://www.praseg.org.uk/the-role-of-gas-in-the-uk-energy-mix/

UNVERIFIED COMMENTS : Please check with the speakers to confirm their statements and do not take this account as verbatim.

[Alan Whitehead MP] Questions about gas. Will it be business as usual ? If not – too “much” gas ? What does that mean for Climate Change targets ? New gas generation – about 11 gigawatts coming on-stream in the next 5 years – “grandfathered” (no obligations to control emissions with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) throughout the life of the power plant – does produce questions about Climate Change targets – CCS may change that landscape in the medium-term future. Question about emergence of biogas into system [which would bring] a down-trend in emissions.

[David Cox] The wonderful future that gas offers us. Have to look at whole low carbon [framework] – gas has a place. Not a war [between gas and renewable energy technologies]. Both needed [in the advance towards carbon-free] energy. Without gas, not going to make it. Make sure we can afford it. Gas has a role. The recent [International Energy Agency] IEA report on the “Golden Age of Gas” – tight gas, shale gas – has doubled reserves. Nobody knows for sure – there’s so much there. Perhaps 250 years of gas – no shortage of gas [although some of it is in] sensitive areas. Getting it from those areas with political problems. [There are uncertainties about] unconventional gas. There is plenty around the world – “pretty good”. Gas is not at war with renewables. Gas isn’t just a transition fuel – it’s a destination fuel. Got to prove CCS technically. If we can do that gas becomes a destination fuel. Can decarbonise not only electricity. Heat. Heat pumps won’t do it on their own. Sorry. [Gas can help decarbonise] transport – electrify the transport system – that’s what we believe is possible. Hope the Government will support CCS.

[Doug Parr] First and foremost – we are not going to eliminate gas from energy systems any time soon – don’t think of gas as a destination – I would warn against policy that gas is allowed to become the default and become too dependent on gas. A lot of policy on gas – but only over part of the energy system [electricity]. Heat is going to rely on gas fo a long time. If follow the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) logic – [heat is a] strategic sector – to getting away from carbon emissions. If gas is going to be what gets us out of energy problems – the so-called “trilemma” of decarbonisation, security [of supply] and cost. [New gas power plants amount to] 11 gigawatts [GW] over the next 5 years – 120 TWh – a quarter of current gas [still in service] out to 2030. If one take CCC target of 50 gC / KWh (grammes of carbon per kilowatt hour). Look at CCGT [Combined Cycle Gas Turbine gas generation power plant in operation] – that target is a fraction of [current] unabated [CCGT] – not that great. Any substantial role of gas has to make some pretty strong assumptions about CCS. Remember, this is not yet working – let us not have a decarbonisation policy relying heavily on CCS when not at the first stage. The CCC have warned that grandfathering of the 11 GW new generation – emit without restrictions – and issue until 2045. Can’t say gas is somehow the answer to decarbonisation issues. In media – don’t [swallow] the media froth. [As for] security of supply – already going to be quite reliant on gas for heating for quite some time – hard to see [otherwise]. Heavily reliant on imports – around 80%. Where do we import our gas from ? Qatar and Norway mostly. The former head of the Navy argued [recently] changing gas prices is the single most significant factor. DECC [UK Government Department of Energy and Climate Change] recent report on price shock. REA [Renewable Energy Association] said that just by hitting renewables targets would displace £60 billion of imports. [As for] shale gas : both Ofgem research and Deutsche Bank reports that shale gas is very unlikely to help on security [of supply] issue. Citing American example [of shale gas exploitation] is just irrelevant. [So the UK Government must be] supporting gas because of costs ? The biggest rise in consumer bills is from fossil fuel [price increases]. Not renewable energy, not green energy [measures] – it’s the rise in the wholesale gas price. Is that going to stabilise and go down ? Not according to Merrill Lynch and DECC – [strong] prices for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and therefore for gas [as a whole, will stay]. Clearly we will be using gas – as [electricity grid load] balancing. What I’m railing about is that gas doesn’t get us out of our energy trilemma. Gas will not [save us]. We know we can deliver through renewable energy, wind – acceleration of new technologies [such as tidal] – perhaps CCS will work, who knows ? and efficient use for example Combined Heat and Power (CHP) on industrial scale. If we are using gas we are using at it’s most efficient.

[Alan Whitehead MP] [recounts tale of how he got into trouble with Twitter commentators when he insisted the recent rise in consumer energy bills was due to the rise in the cost of wholesale gas, not green energy measures] [To Charles Hendry] I’m sure you don’t Tweet.

[Charles Hendry MP] No. absolutely not. I have enough people telling me I’m wrong without… We have to look at the role of gas. It would a dereliction of Government not to look at the role of gas going forward. […mentions developments in gas production…] seismic profiling [enabling better understanding of gas fields] horizontal drilling [improving access to complex fields]. [As for] unconventional gas – the IEA “Golden Age of Gas” – but don’t assume [it’s that simple – supply may go up but] demand for gas is going to go up dramatically. Japan – major user of LNG and diesel. Consequence of Germany’s decision to close nuclear power plants – will use much more gas. China…India…growth rate – massive growth of demand. Anticipate new resources to be found – Iraq for example – but cannot assume [what has happened in the United States of America with the development of shale gas where gas prices are now] a quarter [of what they were] – a massive boost to America – will they allow this to be exported to Asia – or use cheap gas to [relocating] industry back to the USA ? Have to look at implications for us. Reasons why shale gas is different in Europe – legal [situation] – the mineral rights [in the US, these can be acquired from underneath a landowner]. Don’t have the same commercial drives as farmers in the US. The reason why gas prices collapsed in the US and not here – if we saw a price benefit here, it would go out through the [gas] interconnectors [to neighbouring countries]. For real practical reasons won’t see shal gas develop [significantly] here. [It is a] global gamechanger – but… The US is fundamentally shifting from coal to gas – with the implications for emissions. The change from coal to gas was a major driver in European control of emissions [in the 1990s] […] Investment…technology…practical constraints. EdF [Electricite de France] will go ahead with new nuclear [by the end of the year ?] but the plant will not come online until the end of the decade. Major renewable energy resources also in 2020s [not immediate] – the cost of offshore wind power is two times that of onshore. We’re saying to industry to reduce by 40% by the end of the decade – otherwise simply not affordable. Contributions from tidal, CCS ahead. It’s going to be very end of this decade to see if CCS can work. Worrying gap [in power generation between now and next decade]. Megawatts (MW) of coal being turned off in 2015. [Coal plants are] getting through their [legally permitted] generating hours too quickly. By 2023, the only nuclear plant still operational will be Sizewell B. We have to have more gas in the mix. As we look towards more intermittent resources (renewables), gas is an important source of backup. [Will have/need] a capacity mechanism to ensure [optimisation when] mismatch between supply and demand – auction to include gas – could be [North Sea] gas, gas from the interconnectors [from abroad] or demand side response [demand reduction] – a more sophisticated capacity mechanism than historical. I’m more optimistic about CCS [than Doug Parr]. CCS is a requirement. It is something we have to deliver – no scenario I’ve seen where we’re going [to be] using less coal, oil and gas than today. [Out to 2035] our basic needs [will still rely for a good percentage on] fossil fuels. Broadening CCS [demonstration competition] out to pre- and post-combustion on coal – [expand] to gas. Can be applied to gas as well as coal. I think CCS is a fundamentally critical part of this equation. If so, can see gas as a destination fuel. The GW of gas being built in the next few years [some questions] – currently gas is being mothballed [some plants being shut down effectively putting them into disuse] because of [fuel] prices. I consented more in gas and also wind on- and offshore last year. But that gas is not being built. If we want that gas built we need a more coherent strategy. Look at what is necessary to encourage that gas – and carbon emissions [reduction] alongside. EPS [Emissions Performance Standard] […] to stop unabated coal – limit 450 gC / kWh – significant proportion of plant would need CCS. But ddin’t want to disincentivise gas. Have also said a point where CCS on gas will be necessary. But if we had people building gas now and then 15, 20 years later they would have to fit very expensive [CCS] equipment… Volume of gas coming forward meets our supply issues. Over the next few years, grandfathering. If see enough gas coming through can change the mechanism in due course. [We will be] responding officially to the CCC in Autumn. Need to [fully] decarbonise electricity in the course of the 2030s if we want to meet out climate change objectives. I think that [the] reality [is that] gas and important element. Nuclear is important. Want to see significant amount of renewable energy and what Doug is calling for – significant commitment to [energy use] efficiency in the country. [We should concentrate particularly on] energy efficiency.

The meeting then opened up to questions from the floor… To Be Continued

Academic Freedom Renewable Gas

Renewable Gas in Outline

You’ve had all my thoughts on Renewable Gas for free and without effort so far, but now for something you have to work for !

If you want to read an unreferenced version of my outline to Renewable Gas, you will need to email me, and commit to writing a short review of what I have written.

You can leave me your genuine email address by commenting on this post – click the post title to show the comments box at the bottom of the post page.

I can guarantee not to share your email address with any third party. Unless you want me to. Or unless you say something illegal or hateful.

Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Big Number Big Picture British Biogas Electrificandum Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Revival Major Shift Renewable Gas

Renewable Gas : An Introduction

Post author By Jo
Post date June 3, 2012
No Comments on Renewable Gas : An Introduction

Image shows capped Victorian gas light wall fitting next to a modern electric standard lamp.

Gas fuels are, and will continue to be, important in global energy, despite the projected exponential rise in renewable electricity generation from solar and wind power. Natural Gas has a far lower carbon dioxide emissions profile than coal or oil, and is providing increasing amounts of heat, light and power to industrialised countries. Gas may be regarded as competition to renewable energy, but in fact, gas of different kinds will be an enabler of the renewable energy future, filling in the sawtooth gaps in variable renewable electricity generation, and providing essential transport fuels.

Traditional methods of producing energy gas include mining and pumping the Earth’s fossil fuel resources. The good quality, easily accessible gas is coming to an end, and so-called “unconventional” sources are beginning to be exploited – gas locked in dense sediment and strata, in shales, coal seams and deepwater seabeds. To make energy takes energy, and unconventional gas fuels are becoming more costly to produce. Since the expense of going after poorer density, more inaccessible resources could become prohibitive, exploitation of gas from under the ground will most likely gradually be usurped by methods of making gas fuels above ground. These will need to be from sustainable resources, and so lighter-than-air fuels of the future will be Renewable Gas.

To dig deeper into how important gas is, here’s a little data disclosure on my personal home energy consumption, leaving out food, goods and transport – much of which is virtually Zero Carbon :-

May 2012 Household Domestic Utility Energy Consumption
Natural Gas 137.3 kWh
Electricity 54.0 kWh
Water 5.2 kWh (estimate for 2.4 m3 water from Thames Water)

May 2012 Household Domestic Utility Energy Production
Electricity 293.2 kWh (home photovoltaic generation)
Biomethane 1.8 kWh (estimate for 2.4 m3 sewage digested by Thames Water)

For the first time since having the solar electricity panels fitted, my house has become a net energy producer. The house was already producing more electricity than it used in March 2012, but the thing that kept it a net energy consumer was Natural Gas consumption – mostly used for space heating.

The house used less than half the Natural Gas in March than it did in February or January, but the solar power generated was much less then than it is now – owing to the season – and so did not overtake gas demand. Hopefully now, the house will remain a net energy producer until November.

Two things can be drawn from looking at all the data – first that energy consumption swings can be significant from season to season – and secondly that Natural Gas use is by far the largest part of energy consumption for most of the year. In fact, Natural Gas use is an order of magnitude larger than electricity in winter, even when some of the localised space heating is electrical.

I have taken measures to reduce my space heating needs, such as only using the gas central heating when critical, and keeping the thermostat at 17 degrees C when it’s on, and installing various kinds of insulation and draught exclusion. Thermal adjustment of the home is an ongoing process of improvement, but despite all my efforts, gas use is still ten times higher in the cold months than all the power consumption. On the other hand, in the warm months, I sometimes use less gas energy than electricity.

I aim to change some of the home gas appliances to electrical power, in order to further reduce my dependence on gas. However, even though I have a green electricity account, some of my power will still be coming from gas-fired power stations. Plus, it could be argued that my burning gas to heat water is more efficient than using electricity, because of the losses of conversion in the power supply grid system. Heating by electricity is almost certainly less efficient – which is why I must continue to insulate my home further. Of note, my domestic production of energy will not ever match winter consumption without utilising a new resource, as solar insolation is at its ebb then, and so moving away from gas to power will perhaps take me farther away from an overall balance between energy supply and demand.

Until the United Kingdom is powered entirely by green electricity and given comfort by insulation and green heating and cooling, we will continue to be dependent on gas fuels, not just because of the variable nature of renewable energy, which gas backs up, but because it will take time to convert everything that can be converted from gas to power. This is especially important in the field of transport, where the first conversion will need to be from oil-refined fuels to gas-refined fuels as a first stage – as replacing all the vehicles with electric drive models will take a gargantuan effort, and much economic turnover.

The importance of gas fuels in the next few decades during the green energy transition means that it is worthwhile to develop sustainable Renewable Gas supplies, particularly considering that once developed they can continue to be of use long into the future.

Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Big Picture Big Society British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Climate Change Coal Hell Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Demoticratica Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Engineering Marvel Evil Opposition Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Global Heating Green Investment Green Power Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Emissions Peak Natural Gas Realistic Models Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Resource Wards Social Capital Social Change Solution City Technofix Technological Sideshow The Power of Intention The Price of Gas The War on Error Wasted Resource Western Hedge Zero Net

It’s got to be gas

Public Enemy Number One in energy terms has got to be burning coal to generate electricity. Although the use of some coal for domestic heating to supplement varying supplies of biomass in home stoves is going to continue to be very useful, using coal for power production is wasteful, toxic and high carbon.

Public Enemy Number Two in energy terms is nuclear power – a weight round our collective neck. Costly to build, costly to underwrite, costly to decommission: although its proponents claim it as a low carbon solution, even they admit the management of nuclear power can be polluting, risky and wasteful.

Public Energy Number Three in energy terms has to be the incredible amount of water required to keep the first two enemies in operation. Climate change is already altering the patterns of rainfall, both in geographical areas and in seasons. Any energy solutions that don’t require water supplies will be preferable.

Many environmental researchers oppose a growing dependence on Natural Gas for power generation in industrialised countries – they claim it will lock in carbon emissions production without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Carbon Capture and Storage is way off in the never-never land at present, so it should not be factored in to analyses of carbon management. Ignoring CCS, it can be seen that substituting in Natural Gas power generation where coal has been the principal fuel is in fact a very good way to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the near term.

Natural Gas is not forever, not even with environmentally-ensured unconventional production, such as shale gas. Yet the Natural Gas infrastructure is highly important for developed and some parts of developing countries too. If we can re-imagine the future of gas, making gas fuels renewable, the already existing distribution of gas and appliances and equipment that use it, become a valuable asset.

The climate change crisis is an energy crisis. My position is that we need three vital things to solve this energy crisis : rationalised energy, renewable electricity and Renewable Gas. My key projection is that a 100% renewable energy world is possible, and in fact, inevitable, and to get from here to there we need to use gas fuels, but they need to become progressively renewable in order to meet the climate change crisis.

Natural Gas can not only be a “bridge fuel”. Supporting its use now, on the understanding that it will be replaced by Renewable Gas in the medium term, will enable links to be made between society and the energy industry, and break down the barricades between those who are against high carbon energy and those who sell high carbon energy.

Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Bad Science Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Big Society Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Environmental Howzat Evil Opposition Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Freak Science Global Heating Global Singeing Global Warming Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Money Sings No Pressure Non-Science Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Pure Hollywood Regulatory Ultimatum Resource Curse Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Screaming Panic Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Social Democracy Solution City Stirring Stuff Stop War Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow Technomess The Data The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The War on Error Toxic Hazard Voluntary Behaviour Change Wasted Resource

This Is My Thesis

I have recently been awarded a postgraduate Master of Science (MSc) degree, and several of my contacts suggested that I might consider studying for the academic qualification of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD). To be awarded a doctorate, I would need to make a valuable contribution to the body of knowledge and achievement in my chosen field. I do not think that paper-based research on its own would count as taking collective human understanding a step further, and so I must consider what forms of theorising, construction, engineering, creation, experimentation, configuration, data collection, analysis and argumentation I would need to make accomplishments in, in order to gain the good review of my peers, and the acceptance of my skill. It is not enough to love Wisdom, she has to be sought out, and introduced to your friends.

My first instinct is collaborative – how can I find a place where I can nurture my learning and strategy, in co-operation with others – where I can find a welcome, and make statements and discoveries that gain me a status, get me recognition ? I want to shine, in order to become useful, to serve my fellow woman and man. I don’t want to be competitive, winning out over others, but be part of a vanguard, a flight formation, spurring each other on to make progress together, striving as a group. I’m not ambitious, except for truth, beauty and good technology. I can share acclaim and I want to bring everybody with me. We can, standing elbow to elbow, vanquish destructive forces.

Yet, this proud, altruistic aim, to be part of the pack of pioneers, to offer something helpful, is marred by reality. Whilst I want to be constructive, others adopt divisiveness, in order to isolate outliers, and clamber over others to win the crown. I must not only reserve my right to speak against the herd, I must also wield it. I am relegated to the Zone of Insignificance, the people whose voices do not count because they articulate criticism. I do not want to join those who act as if they have the only viable formulation of reality – with their patronising stance – offering to host the public conversation, claiming they are at the centre of the debate, whilst at the same time undermining others with clever cynicism and sneering dismissal of those who will not join them.

I cannot be bought, and neither can I be seduced into a false alliance. I will not support meta-narrative, nor other contrivances. But this leaves me conflicted. One of the most significant problems with public discourse on science and technology in relation to resource limits and environmental damage is the persistence of the “anti” lobby – those people who feel bound to continue to be negative about things that have not yet been resolved. Many have been anti-nuclear, anti-fossil fuels, anti-coal, anti-energy companies, anti-Government policy, anti-hijacking of the United Nations process on climate change by economists. These voices, these positions, are important, but do not own the platform, and so they continue to rage. It is impossible to make progress without having something to rally around, to have a positive flag to muster under, but people with genuine influence continue to mis-step in their proposals and policies.

I want to bridge the gaps between the social groupings – I need to – in order to offer a way forward that can put some of the anti-thesis to bed, and galvanise efforts towards real, workable, cost-effective solutions. A genuine peoples movement for progress can accrete consensus, enormous non-hierarchical power, and can even draw in its detractors if it can be seen to be working. I am going to have to step out in faith, and at much risk – for I am going to attempt to join together the direction of the energy sector with the concerns of the environmentalists. I am not going to use a marketing strategy, nor sell a public relations pill to financiers and investment funds. I am not going to paint a green picture that has no details or exists only in a dream world. I am fairly certain that everybody is going to hate me, at least for a while, but in the end, I hope they will see that I am right, as I feel I am not generally mistaken.

Since I expect to be slighted and put down, and for people to work to marginalise me, I do not expect to be adopted by an academic institution or an energy or engineering company in the pursuit of my goals. In fact, I would resist such appropriation, for I am intellectually liberated. So, my work will not be accorded a standard accolade by a respectable institution or corporate body, and in fact, since that is the case, I can choose to work in any way that I see fit. Since, according to many scientists, we do not have much time to gain global assent for workable climate change solutions, as we must have a peak in greenhouse gas emissions in the near term, I cannot measure out five or seven years to complete a body of work which would then be reviewed. Instead, I shall publish in stages, and take peer review, including negative criticism, if any should be offered, as I go.

Although I wish to be practical rather than purely written, I shall not have much access to the funds, laboratories or engineering workshops where I could do the work myself. Instead, I shall have to ask questions of those who are already doing the work I am following, and try to ascertain their progress, and make my recommendations for their advancement. I seek to investigate live uses of the technology and systems I write about – as I expect them to be put to use before I have completed documenting them. My work will therefore be literature, but I want my intelligence to be fully accessible, so I will not use academic forms of composition. I shall write in what I hope is an easy, open way, and provide a mechanism for reply. I am going to offer my work by subscription, and I hope that those who register to receive my report in sections, will participate in making my work better.

The human race needs to be for something, not merely against, in all the myriad multitude of complaints that rise up like evaporating water, or steam from boiling pots, all and every day. However, a false unity, or a crooked one, cannot help us. We need to use what we’ve already got, and only imagine small gains in technological prowess. We should stop believing in public relations and advertising. We should stop being lulled into passivity by those glossing over our concerns, or those outspending logic. We should not give up in the face of overwhelming ineptitude and embedded vested interests. We cannot overhaul everything overnight, and somebody’s got to pay for change, and so they had better be the right changes. We need to be pragmatic, and not overreach, nor over-commit ourselves where technology could fail.

Academic Freedom Feed the World Genetic Muddyfixation Mass Propaganda Media Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles

The Gloves Are Off

I received what at first glance looked like an innocent-looking email from somebody I think is doing a pretty good job in deconstructing the appalling media treatment of science and technology :-

“Jo, Could you edit your comment down this morning so it’s significantly shorter? […] If you’re not up for shrinking it, I’ll shorten it myself this afternoon, and I probably won’t do as good a job in relation to what you are trying to get across. Thanks, […]”

Unfortunately, I do not like being warned that my comments will be edited, and possibly become less clear than the way I originally wrote them. I particularly don’t like the implication that my argument could become corrupted by somebody else editing my ideas.

My summary : open debate is being stifled.

To protest, I removed my entire comment.

Here are my original comments in full :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

I have to ask the question – what kind of a geek is Mark Henderson ? A former science editor of The Times, maybe, but what is his personal geek rating in science, technology and engineering ? He admits he doesn’t have a science degree, so how can he speak on behalf of science geeks ?

I listened to his interview with The Guardian’s Martin Robbins and all I picked up was static – I didn’t hear him talk about real science or real technology. However, he was careful to put in the “good box” what I call the “Mark Lynas dud duo” – the two technologies that it seems most people object to – nuclear power and GM crops. He therefore gets a first propaganda strike from me.

If I’m not mistaken, he does not have a science or research background himself, so he is unable to determine that his claim that the UEA scientists had a “culture of non-disclosure” was a myth, generated by the climate change denial echo chamber.

There were, and continue to be, reasons why researchers are not permitted to publish certain information, including the fact that data may come from other research units who cannot give authority to publish data for a variety of reasons – for example, data obtained by a country’s military services.

What this myth glosses over is the truth – there have been several decades of work by the scientific community themselves to make data collection and databases more transparent and available. Climate change scientists have in particular been working across the international borders to attempt to link data sources in a coherent way to substantiate global reporting. They’re not hiding data, they are actively working together to liberate it. Henderson needs to research this apparently glib assertion, made apparently without checking the facts. He therefore gets a second propaganda strike from me for this.

I am not surprised that Henderson aims for the jugular of the “green movement” as you report. This is a common easy target – this straw man. There is no such thing as a coherent “green movement” who have uniform beliefs and common exposure to science and research. Strike three.

It is true that there are some people who consider themselves green environmentalists who have a deep-seated distaste for nuclear power and GM crops, but who have only the barest acquaintance with the scientific knowledge of atomic energy engineering or biotechnology.

However there are a good number of very well-educated scientists who are against the exploitation of nuclear fission for energy and genetically modified plants for food and energy. The reasons that scientists oppose nuclear energy and biotechnology may not always be the same reasons that so-called environmentalists oppose atomic power and GM crops, but that doesn’t mean that the environmentalists have unfounded concerns. It is simply a category error to say that all those who oppose nuclear power and GM crops are being unscientific, or are not scientists. Strike four.

It is also a category error to equate non-governmental organisations “NGOs” with “environmentalists”, or attempt to claim the high intellectual ground as a “geek” in support of nuclear power and GM crops. Strike five and six.

The most deceptive category error of all is to claim that nuclear power and biotechnology are “science”. They are not. They are “technologies” – and technologies can go wrong – as nuclear power has spectacularly done. Strike seven.

Dick Taverne seems to have been confusing “technology” with “science” for some time now, with his group “vaingloriously” (?) named “Sense about Science”. Does he really believe that only people that think like he does are showing any sense about science ?

What happens when countries are persuaded to permit GM crop technologies, and they are universally grown – and the science actually begins, and 20 or 25 years later scientific research shows that there are significant problems ? Will we be able to say, it’s all OK, GM crops are scientific, so they must be fine, even though they cause major problems ?

Mark Henderson therefore gets seven counts of propaganda against him in my view. I therefore would humbly suggest – in the terms of Simon Singh – that his position is “bogus”.

You quote Alice Bell saying about the “tension at the heart of green NGOs” – “Too quick to reject science (GMOs) whilst, at the same time, too keen to claim scientists know the incontrovertible truth when it suits their campaigns (climate change).”

There are multiple problems with her statement from my point of view. First of all, people in “green NGOs” are not necessarily untrained in science and technology, as is hinted at by her construction.

Second, “green NGOs” are not “too quick to reject” nuclear power and GM crops – they have been rejecting the social, economic, investment and environmental risks of nuclear power and GM crops for many years.

Her implication is that there is a kneejerk, ideological response against these technologies, whereas, in fact, the “green NGOs” are often raising scientific research as the basis of their aversion to these technologies.

Third, she is surprised that “green NGOs” accept climate change science. She doesn’t seem to realise that “green NGOs” are basing their position on climate change on science in exactly the same way that they are basing their position on nuclear power and GM crops on science.

What would perhaps make her head spin is to find out that a number of “green NGOs” are against some of the proposed technological “solutions” for climate change – including Carbon Capture and Storage (too uncertain, too expensive, too fuel-hungry, not answering coal pollution in general).

She would perhaps look at the opening of the recent CCS research station in Mongstad in Norway, and believe that CCS is a valuable technology because people are doing engineering experiments for CCS. She will then perhaps be ready to accept that CCS is a science, and therefore a good thing. She will have been spun.

How many times do we need to unpack the public relations surrounding a technology to demonstrate that not all technologies are useful, not all technologies are good, and that not all technologies have been subjected to sufficient scientific research before being launched ?

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

I tweeted a little :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@alicebell I have been somewhat chiding towards you here in comments https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Please do disagree if you wish

@markgfh I have been somewhat uncomplimentary towards you here in comments : https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Feel free to dispute my position

@SLSingh I have appropriated a term of yours here in comments https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Feel free to utter witheringness

@carbonbrief I am somewhat churlish in comments under Robin Webster’s piece here : https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Feel free to castigate/moderate

@senseaboutsci I am somewhat less that congratulatory about Dick Taverne here in comments : https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Please do contradict me

I wonder if @mark_lynas will ever notice my coinage here in comments ? https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Or feel stung enough to blat one back ?

@mjrobbins I complained about your Mark Henderson interview here in comments : https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto Wondering if you sense my drift

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

Replies from Martin Robbins :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@mjrobbins
@joabbess I’m a pragmatist: my view is that opposing nuclear power or GM aren’t coherent positions, so I’m much more in the Lynas camp.

@mjrobbins
@joabbess I’d say more broadly that Mark has an extremely expert understanding of policy issues, which many greens are naive about, hence

@mjrobbins
@joabbess support for e.g. nukes isn’t an implication that they’re necessarily perfect, but an understanding that the alternative was coal.

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

My replies to Martin Robbins :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@mjrobbins Hmm. I do not see opposition to nuclear power as incoherent. As an industry, it’s opposing itself quite coherently, without help.

@mjrobbins Throughout development of GM crops and GMOs there have been spectacular failings – again – an industry that’s bad for itself.

@mjrobbins To my mind pretty logical, coherent & pragmatic 2 B opposed to the waste of public funds on new nuclear power – subsidy essential

@mjrobbins Who told U (& Y did U believe) “alternative [to nuclear power] was coal” ? Bypass for both is solar, wind power & Renewable Gas

@mjrobbins I would say many “greens” quite clued up about policy – particularly its failings. Despite Climate Change Act, no big picture

@mjrobbins Unlike Mark Lynas, I am not an environmentalist. Am physicist, engineer, computer programmer & now climate change degree. Geek ?

@mjrobbins I’m a pragmatist too, which is why I say we should not fritter away our time on unproven technologies with 20 year timeframes

@mjrobbins I’m a pragmatist too, which is why I say we should avoid locking ourselves into nuclear power with decommissioning “long tails”

@mjrobbins I’m a pragmatist too which is why I say we should avoid locking energy systems into coal, oil & fossil gas supply/cost volatility

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

A reply from Simon Singh :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@SLSingh
@joabbess Use bogus, but no need to use my name. IMHO yr 1st para is wrong. As Times science correspondent for a decade, Mark is qualified.

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

My replies to Simon Singh :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@SLSingh I question Mark Henderson’s conceptual framework : his approach to science, scientists & technologies, despite his media experience

@SLSingh Apologies if using your name as reference offended you. I felt justified in using word as you had fought successfully to use it.

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

I complained to Carbon Brief :-

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

@joabbess
Just received email “Would you mind awfully editing your comments? If not, we’ll do it for you, and it may not read the same as you want it”

@joabbess
& who is it demanding I edit my comments or that they will be edited for me, perhaps losing their meaning? @carbonbrief https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief Your email reads like “…if you don’t edit your comment, we’ll do it for you”, so I had to delete it https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief You are clearly seriously interested in open debate – demanding me to edit my comment https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief Although you hold the ultimate right to moderate comments, you do not have the right to edit my ideas https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief I consider your project a failure because you are not open to free debate https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief This is how to stifle dissent, send an email asking if I wouldn’t mind cutting down my comment length, or allowing you to do it

@carbonbrief It is not reasonable to demand that somebody edits their comments, when the only other option is that you will do it for them

@carbonbrief When you open up the floor to debate on science and technology, be aware that engineers have mature opinions about reality

@carbonbrief I will not contribute to your project if you demand that unless I edit my ideas, you will do it for me https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief If you want an open debate about science and technology, you need to be prepared for some people to have well-developed ideas

@carbonbrief If you’re editing me how many other people are you editing? Are they as unhappy as I am with this demand? https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/05/book-review-the-geek-manifesto

@carbonbrief In meantime you can always call me & apologise for offering to adjust my views in comment I left on your website. Censorial!

@chr1stianh So, how do you explain sending me an email offering to edit my remarks to a state of confusion unless I edit them myself ?

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

Now it appears that there is a “launch” for Mark Henderson’s book “Geek Manifesto”. Simon Singh tweeted :-

@SLSingh
Send Geek Manifesto by @markgfh to every MP https://bit.ly/Jr9pf5 pledge page

@SLSingh
https://geekmanifesto.wordpress.com/ RT @kriswager: At #6wsc12 you wore a geek badge & you referred to a book – what was the title?

I replied :-

@SLSingh No I won’t pledge to send a copy of @markgfh Geek Manifesto to every MP. I think his intellectual framework is based on falsehoods

Carbon Brief tweeted :-

@carbonbrief
The revolt of the Geeks – a book review https://bit.ly/JCqnoH #geekmanifesto

=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=x=

And why is this discussion so relevant ? Well, the organisation “Sense” about Science, that Simon Singh is a part of, has been pushing the protection of an open field trial of GM wheat.

They’re currently taking the pouty-pouty flouncy approach over an alleged break-in by a “protester” who may have damaged the plants.

It’s science, right, so we must protect it ? Or is is just technology, and the science says that we should be highly cautious in deploying biotechnology ?

It’s too easy to get people to cluster around a bad idea.

Simon Singh tweeted :-

@SLSingh
Depressing RT @BBCBreaking: GM wheat trial has been vandalised causing “significant” damage to crops https://bbc.in/JfHASc #Rothamsted

I replied :-

@SLSingh Unless there is proper discourse in public arena about biotechnology & who pays for research & why, it will continue to be opposed

Other Tweets :-

@NicholasCollins
Breaking – #Rothamsted GM wheat trial to go ahead despite break-in yesterday as experiment was not significantly disrupted

@adamvaughan_uk
Attack on Rothamstead: Man arrested after break-in at GM wheat trial site https://tgr.ph/JJWTY2

@NicholasCollins
Breaking – a 50-year-old man has been charged with criminal damage after being arrested at #Rothamsted site yesterday, police confirm

@sallylepage
Panic over-the wheat is fine and the intruder has been arrested. Take note protesters:it’s illegal https://bit.ly/Krsbwk #dontdestroyresearch

@johanntasker
GM crop trial latest: Police confirm 50-year-old man in custody after being arrested on suspicion of criminal damage https://tgr.ph/Jv4FyG

@nick9000
@senseaboutsci Assuming the GM wheat trial is a success how will it be commercialised? Will the UK tax payer benefit? #dontdestroyresearch

@senseaboutsci
We’ll answer this question in Q&A w @Rothamsted & @TheSainsburyLab today 4:30 https://bit.ly/KuGcJS #dontdestroyresearch Send us your Qs now!

@ticobas
Check that moronic TtFB comment in last paragraph “Man arrested after break-in at GM wheat trial site” via @Telegraph https://soc.li/S1cxKzL

“A spokesman for Take The Flour Back said: “We have no information about this incident, but are relieved if the quantity of GM pollen released from the trial has been reduced.””

@BBCRBlack
‘Vandalism’ of UK GM wheat trial – man charged https://bbc.in/Ma8zAq

@loubgray
‘Vandalism’ of UK GM wheat trial – man charged @BBSRC statement on damage @Rothamsted – https://bit.ly/JJsgA9 from @dbkell

@NicholasCollins
My new take on Rothamsted break-in: trial to continue despite alleged vandalism https://tinyurl.com/7jbt4xg

The Rothamsted research station has been playing public relations too :-

@Rothamsted
An intruder attempted to break into our trial on Sunday. They caused damage but failed to disrupt the experiment https://bit.ly/Krsbwk

I commented :-

@joabbess
@Rothamsted Seriously, what do you expect when people are aggrieved by your apparently careless approach to gene management ?

@joabbess
@Rothamsted Technologies are not always useful & science not always good. The world learned much through Nazi medical experimentation but…

@joabbess
@Rothamsted Sorry, but I don’t believe you. Even if I read of a drone flying over test site spraying Ready Roundup, I shall not believe it

The main BBSRC body also got in on the act :-

@BBSRC
BBSRC statement on damage to @Rothamsted Research #GM field trial https://ht.ly/b2rHm

My response :-

@joabbess
And so the shiny public relations begin “@BBSRC statement on damage to @Rothamsted Research #GM field trial https://ht.ly/b2rHm” @BBSRC

Leo Hickman was dubious of the inflation of the Rothamsted break-in story :-

@leohickman
“GM protestor charged” is now second lead story on BBC News website https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-18140957 >>Interesting, but slightly OTT?

I replied :-

@leohickman Of course it’s over the top – the fluffing up of this event, whatever it really was, is designed to support cause of GM science

@leohickman We’re scientists and we’re peeved because somebody smashed our test tubes. You’ve got to love us. We want to sell you GM wheat

Let’s just remind ourselves of the general context of GM crop commercialisation :-

It’s all about the agrochemical sales…

GM crops are ruining economies and societies…

And let’s just remind ourselves of the general context of nuclear power too :-

@chr1stianh
More on nuclear costs from Reuters. https://reut.rs/KBW12N

@kevinmeyerson
StarTelegram: #Omaha #nuclear plant is “appalling indictment of a culture of open disregard for safety recommendations” https://bit.ly/KiMG3Q

Is Fukushima Dai-ichi Unit 4 really safe ?

The Fukushima Dai-ichi multiple nuclear accident has still not been cleaned up, but then, neither is Chernobyl.

Anybody who adopts the “environmentalists are stupid” and “nuclear fuel and waste radioactivity isn’t that bad” line of reasoning, such as George Monbiot, and seemingly Mark Lynas and Mark Henderson, are in effect supporting sub-standard industry regulations, and are leaving the door wide open to further, possibly much more serous, nuclear power accidents.

And anyone who uses the position “environmentalists are stupid” to support the development of genetically modified crops, trees and other bioenergy plants, has really not thought through the problems that could be caused by genetic contamination of the world’s major crops, and the possiblity that food speculation and carbon credit trading could trigger mass land grabs in Africa and Asia by those who own the GM energy and food crops, making conditions so much worse for the world’s poor.

GM crops may be sold to us as solving pest problems by using less fertilised, pesticides, herbicides or fungicides, or being climate change and drought tolerant, to help feed the world, but in all likelihood, GM crops will be used to dominate agricultural profits by continued use of high levels of agrochemicals, and dominate the food markets by those who own the genomes.

Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Bad Science Bait & Switch Big Society Climate Change Climate Chaos Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Dead End Dead Zone Deal Breakers Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Divide & Rule Evil Opposition Fair Balance Freak Science Gamechanger Global Heating Global Singeing Global Warming Hide the Incline Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Incalculable Disaster Libertarian Liberalism Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Money Sings Near-Natural Disaster Neverending Disaster No Pressure Non-Science Paradigm Shapeshifter Petrolheads Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Revolving Door Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Sustainable Deferment The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The War on Error Toxic Hazard Unconventional Foul Ungreen Development Unnatural Gas Unqualified Opinion Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vote Loser

The Really Inconvenient Truth For The GWPF – Debunking GWPF Briefing Paper No1

Post author By Jo
Post date May 14, 2012
3 Comments on The Really Inconvenient Truth For The GWPF – Debunking GWPF Briefing Paper No1

This article was written by M. A. Rodger and was originally posted at DeSmogBlog and is syndicated by an informal agreement and with the express permission of both the author and DeSmogBlog, without payment or charge.

This is the sixth post in a series examining the UK-registered educational charity and climate denial 'think-tank' Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). Previous posts (1, 2, 3, 4, 5) have identified very serious shortcomings and it is now make-or-break time for the GWPF's reputation.

GWPF Briefing Paper No1 – The Really Inconvenient Truth' will be a good test for this because “the GWPF is proud to publish this dispassionate but devastating critique of UK climate change policies, and of the alleged basis on which those policies rest.”

So says the foreword written by Lord Lawson of Blaby, the founder of the GWPF. Such a statement pretty much overrules the disclaimer that appears on the cover of these Briefing Papers (that views expressed are those of the author not the GWPF).

So will GWPF pride come before a fall?

REALLY INCONVENIENT AND REALLY TRUE?

The author of Briefing Paper No1 is Lord Andrew Turnbull, a retired senior civil servant and a GWPF Trustee. Turnbull has a “unique authority” for the task according to Lord Lawson. But a “unique authority” may not be adequate because the subject of Briefing Paper No1 encompasses not just UK climate change policy, but also the entirety of the work of the UN IPCC. Now that is a whole lot of subject-matter!

The Really Inconvenient Truth which Turnbull attempts to convey is that the basis for UK climate policy is shaky because it rests solely on the IPCC's findings. “The propositions of the IPCC do not bear the weight of certainty with which they are expressed,” he says.

However Turnbull is at pains to describe what he is attempting in Briefing Paper No1. He wishes only to point out the doubts and flawed procedures that exist. He does not seek to “replace“ the IPCC “propositions” with alternative propositions.

That is what he says. But what does he then do?

The gargantuan task Turnbull tackles in Briefing Paper No1 requires a seriously focused analysis but there is none of that here. Briefing Paper No1 is a sweeping account of the subject that strongly advances alternative “propositions.”

In essence, Turnbull's message is that “the IPCC view is a narrowly-based and over-simplified one … downplaying the role of natural forces.” The alternative view he advances sees a less dramatic climate change that would allow the world to adapt without reducing greenhouse gas emissions. Turnbull concludes (quoting the GWPF's inaugural lecture) that the IPCC view “is impossible to accept.”
Logic dictates this is a call for its “replacement.”

As already mentioned, Briefing Paper No1 analyses IPCC work in its entirety. It thus covers the science, the climatic impacts and the policy responses.

These will be examined here in reverse order – kind of upside-down.

1 POLICY RESPONSES

Turnbull argues at some length for what he calls “no regret” mitigation policies to reduce CO2 emissions, policies which would not impact greatly on the UK economy. Yet Turnbull is entirely disinterested in the CO2 reductions that such minimal policies would achieve. It really does beg the question why he argues for any mitigation policies at all.

Indeed he talks briefly of preferring “adaptation” policies, pointing to the Institute of Civil Engineers who allegedly think that too little attention is paid to “adaptation.” Confusingly, Turnbull gives no source for this allegation. So is he referring to the UK's Institute of Civil Engineers? It is strange if he is. Their policy statements on climate change are unequivocal and wholly opposite to Turnbull's allegation. This is true even in their 2008 statement Adapting the UK to Climate Change (whose title may have given rise to Turnbull's confusion, perhaps a new take on 'judging a book by its cover.').

2 CLIMATIC IMPACTS

Turnbull deals quickly with the IPCC work on climatic impacts. He calls it shabby and quotes twice the Inter Academy Council (IAC) Report 2010 on the IPCC. This time Turnbull's source is referenced so there is no mistaking Turnbull's misinterpretations.

Turnbull makes here two accusations.

Firstly he says the IAC strongly criticise the IPCC WG2 for using non-peer-reviewed material. On this Turnbull is wrong. The IAC say using such “gray” literature is “relevant and appropriate” and is only criticising particulars of how it is used!

Turnbull's second quote (from the IAC Executive Summary) is about the IPCC's use of unsupported or unclear probability assessments within the WG2 Summary for Policy Makers. Any reader of this WG2 Summary will see it is only a summary. It's probability statements are shoddy work but not the shabby underhand work of deception that Turnbull describes.

This second IAC quote is used to back up Turnbull's otherwise unsupported accusations of “a consistent pattern of cherry-picking, exaggeration, highlighting extremes and failure to acknowledge beneficial effects.” Here Turnbull is entirely at odds with the IAC report which never makes any such comment or anything remotely in this vein.

Indeed the IAC begins its conclusions “The Committee concludes that the IPCC assessment process has been successful overall and has served society well” showing Turbull's intemperate tirade against the IPCC WG2 is entirely preposterous!

3 THE SCIENCE

On the science, Turnbull concludes that the IPCC “sees calamity just around the corner, producing calls for dramatic and early CO2 reduction.” This is a blunt but fair assessment.

Yet Turnbull goes on to make many strong but largely unsupported accusations against the IPCC science. He says it ignores 'huge controversy', relies on 'unproven assumptions' since it ' ignored' certain possibilities. He says its findings have been 'strongly challenged' and cites “some scientists … many scientists” who hold alternative views. And for good measure Turnbull also rounds on the Hockey Stick curve, as did GWPF Briefing Paper No3.

None of this has any substance to it. The “many scientists” (in fact one misguided scientist working outside his specialism) was debunked in Part 5 of this series.

As for the “some scientists,” again only one of these is named – climate 'skeptic' Professor Richard Lindzen (who is a member of the GWPF's Academic Advisory Council). It is difficult to support the idea that Lindzen's work has been ignored by the IPCC. Lindzen's work contributed to the 2007 IPCC report within two different chapters and he was even a Lead Author in the 2001 IPCC report on the very chapter relevant to Turnbull's comments.

While Turnbull makes no reference to any particular piece of work by Lindzen (and there continues to be a lot of that), it is safe to say that the available work relevant to Turnbull's discussion had been already shown as entirely flawed scientifically well before Briefing paper No1 was published.

THE REALY INCONVENIENT TRUTH FOR TURNBULL & THE G.W.P.F.

Be it in the science, the climate impacts or the policy responses, there is but one good word that can be said about GWPF Briefing Paper No1 – it is consistent.

It is consistent in being always wrong!

The same appears to be the case generally with GWPF Briefing Papers which have all now been reviewed by this series – consistently wrong and entirely flawed.

The 'debunking' process could be continued to other GWPF publications, searching for the merest hint of some improvement in its reporting, some publications that might show at least some merit. But enough is enough.

GWPF is a UK-registered charity. If a UK charity uses controversial material “such material must be factually accurate and have a well-founded evidence base” (emphasis added). Yet all GWPF Briefing Papers have been shown to be riven with controversial material that is in no way factual or well-founded in evidence.

This is made worse because the charitable “purpose” of the GWPF is to “advance the public understanding of global warming and of its possible consequences, and also of the measures taken or proposed to be taken in response to such warming” (emphasis added).

For an educational charity to be spreading so much untruth and error is surely unacceptable, even scandalous. It is evidently a significant non-compliance that impacts on the public trust in UK charities generally. On this basis, a formal complaint will now be made and pursued with the UK Charity Commission.

There does also remain one as-yet unasked question.

Why would a bunch of respected and otherwise sensible people make such fools of themselves in this manner?

Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture Big Society Breathe Easy Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Corporate Pressure Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Global Heating Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Health Impacts Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Incalculable Disaster Libertarian Liberalism Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Military Invention Money Sings National Energy National Power No Blood For Oil No Pressure Not In My Name Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Coal Peak Emissions Peak Energy Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Social Capital Social Change Social Democracy Solution City Stop War The Power of Intention The Price of Oil Toxic Hazard

Moving towards a logical conclusion

Post author By Jo
Post date May 5, 2012
1 Comment on Moving towards a logical conclusion

Although I consider him to be an enemy of the people by being a key architect of the privatisation of the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), I was delighted to hear Andrew Lansley say this about tobacco sales : “We don’t work in partnership with the tobacco companies because we are trying to arrive at a point where they have no business in this country.” Finally, after over ten years of hard work by a rainbow coalition of healthcare providers, local government administration, campaigners, social activists, educators and charities, it is possible for the UK Secretary of State for Health to tell the tobacco industry their products are not wanted here.

The deep question is : why didn’t the UK Government just ban the tobacco companies outright at the start or tell them to diversify out of selling cancer sticks in order to keep their retail licences ? Well, the simple answer is that companies like British American Tobacco (BAT) are privately-owned capitalised companies, with many pension and other major funds heavily invested. The UK Department of Business, Trade, Enterprise, Industry, Information, Skills, Services and Manufacturing or whatever it’s been variously called over the last few decades, simply couldn’t tell shareholders to pull their investment out of death-by-inhalation stocks.

Everyone sees a return on investment in the industries of death generally, such as the arms trade, the junk food industry, and petrochemicals (ask yourself : how many people have suffered and died because of diesel particulate-provoked asthma ?) It takes a certain amount of time to reach the logical conclusion that wars do not need to be fought, making armaments redundant; for healthy food to become seen as essential to beat off diabetes and obesity epidemics; and for urban transport to be electrified to save lungs and hearts.

No, you just can’t ban an entire product range overnight because, finally, the science has broken through the doubt barrier and shown beyond reasonable scepticism that tobacco smoking causes cancer, emphysema and other serious and fatal conditions. No, you have to go at it step by painful step, reducing availability, changing the rules on presentation at the point of sale, putting up signs in public places.

And it all takes time, this gradualist approach. The tobacco industry may now wind down to a dribble in Britain (although it will continue to do well in Asia and Africa), and peoples’ savings for retirement will have soon all moved out of fag ends into something else.

Yet, we don’t have the luxury of time when it comes to the climate change and energy crisis. We simply don’t have the 25 to 50 years it could take to adopt a gradualist approach to energy sector change. Anything that takes longer than 10 years to begin to displace carbon out of the energy economy is too slow to be useful.

People are slowly beginning to wake up to the fact that their money is invested in climate change, and are making demands on their pension fund and bank account managers – but this is all happening too slowly – despite the keen interest in ethical investment.

The energy sector has got to change – and change fast. Changing the energy sector so radically and so quickly is not something that can be done by applying small changes to the costs of energy – particularly as the wider costs of energy are so volatile anyway. Gradually introducing renewable energy technologies with subsidies and grants and special tax breaks is not going to displace carbon fast enough.

Governments may not like the thought – but maybe they will consider starting to ban things – and not be shy about being explicit. However, this kind of action will generate significant resistance and dissent.

How then to rapidly alter the world’s entire energy sector ?

Start telling the truth about how the energy sector is scraping the bottom of the barrel in a number of fuels and fields ? Could this approach cause a run at the investment bank ? Could it tip the balance in energy systems deployment towards the less-intensive options – green energy – the only possible area of growth in the energy sector – which becomes the only possible logical conclusion ?

Academic Freedom Bad Science Bait & Switch Be Prepared Carbon Capture Climate Change Climate Chaos Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Deal Breakers Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Economic Implosion Emissions Impossible Evil Opposition Fair Balance Foreign Interference Fossilised Fuels Freak Science Freemarketeering Global Heating Global Warming Growth Paradigm Hide the Incline Hydrocarbon Hegemony Libertarian Liberalism Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Meltdown Military Invention Nudge & Budge Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Pure Hollywood Regulatory Ultimatum Revolving Door The War on Error Western Hedge

Psy Ops Gone Wrong

I’m not a conspiracy theorist, even though what I’m about to summarise may sound like I wear a tinfoil hat and don’t use wi-fi, but I assure you this is not true.

I would like you to consider the proposition that disbelief in climate change science is nothing more than an exercise in public mind-bending gone very, very wrong.

In the 1970s, climate change science began to accumulate some serious evidence and intelligent students. It became clear to a number of powerful players that the policy implications of global warming included a drastic reassessment of oil and gas dependence in the global economy.

Defence and national governance institutions all over the Free World, but most significantly in the United States of America, began to discuss the security implications of policy to combat global warming. The energy companies realised that the game was up if they didn’t act – they had their business profits to lose if carbon dioxide emissions became regulated.

Academics and researchers such as Naomi Oreskes and James Hoggan have documented what happened as a result – connivance from the oil, gas and coal companies to launch public relations exercises to qualm apocalyptic fear amongst the general population.

Certain scientists and engineers in the pay of the energy sector, and also close to the American federal administration, and some even in the US Department of Defense, took it as their personal mission to undermine confidence in climate change science, using tried-and-tested techniques from the public relations industry, sowing doubt in science.

Universities were targets for this psychological operation – the early versions of the Internet were ideal pathways for communicating the disinformation. Even very intelligent people became suspicious of climate change science, using the same route by which some environmentalists were invited to become suspicious of microwave ovens – but that’s a whole other story.

We all know what happened next – governments became shy of carbon policy : the result was a promotion of economic consumption at the expense of precaution. Developed economies around the world abandoned energy conservation for more extreme fossil fuel use.

An uneasy international balance was achieved by the USA devoting significant diplomatic effort to their relationship with Saudi Arabia, and protecting energy supplies by sending young white (and black) Christian martyrs into unholy wars on oil and gas producer nations.

It must be hard for some entrenched positions to hear that climate change is actually really serious, after all. We can end the conversation with these sceptics – there are other issues we need to focus on, such as the risks from the militarisation of the melting Arctic.

Climate change “dissenters”, “dismissers” and “deniers” might find it hard to listen to the US Department of Defense trying to be upbeat and re-capture the agenda and the platform. Here’s Leon Panetta outlining some of the new story :-

“Panetta: Environment Emerges as National Security Concern : By Nick Simeone : American Forces Press Service : Washington, May 3, 2012 : Climate and environmental change are emerging as national security threats that weigh heavily in the Pentagon’s new strategy, Defense Secretary Leon E. Panetta told an environmental group last night. “The area of climate change has a dramatic impact on national security,” Panetta said here at a reception hosted by the Environmental Defense Fund to honor the Defense Department in advancing clean energy initiatives. “Rising sea levels, severe droughts, the melting of the polar caps, the more frequent and devastating natural disasters all raise demand for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief,” Panetta said. Panetta cited the melting of Arctic ice in renewing a longstanding call for the Senate to ratify the United Nations Convention on Law of the Sea. More than 150 nations have accepted the treaty, which has been in force since the early 1990s, and a succession of U.S. government administrations have urged ratification. Among other things, the convention would guarantee various aspects of passage and overflight for the U.S. military. Panetta urged his audience to use their influence to push for treaty ratification. “We are the only industrialized nation that has not approved that treaty,” he said…”In the next fiscal year, we are going to be investing more than a billion dollars in more efficient aircraft and aircraft engines, in hybrid electric drives for our ships, in improved generators, in microgrids for combat bases and combat vehicle energy-efficient programs,” he said. “We are investing another billion dollars to make our installations here at home more energy-efficient, and we are using them as the test bed to demonstrate next-generation energy technologies.”

So, how will the international defence and intelligence communities take down the Frankenstein’s monster of opposition to climate change science that in effect they spawned themselves ? How are they going to bust the barricades of intransigent denial of the temperature and sea level gauges ?

You will find that the major meteorological research institutions in most developed countries are closely allied with their ministries of defence and intelligence. For example, the Met Office in the UK. There are competing issues at stake – the scientists cannot get too loud about climate change, because national security depends on economic stability – which rests partly on the profit and loss accounts of their energy sector businesses.

One or two scientists in the extended national security apparatus speak out – like James Hansen at NASA. But most people just keep their heads down.

This is where independent voices are so important to roll back the decades of climate change science scepticism. I hope knowledgable journalists and activists really rip to shreds the latest Heartland advertising campaign.

Academic Freedom Acid Ocean Big Number Carbon Capture Climate Change Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Emissions Impossible Extreme Weather Freshwater Stress Geogingerneering Global Heating Global Warming Hide the Incline Hydrocarbon Hegemony No Pressure Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Realistic Models Science Rules Screaming Panic Stirring Stuff Water Wars Western Hedge Wind of Fortune

Ocean Warming : False Security

Post author By Jo
Post date May 3, 2012
No Comments on Ocean Warming : False Security

The human race has been treating the World Ocean as a dumping ground for global warming and excess carbon dioxide emissions.

It’s where most of the heat ends up, and almost half the anthropogenic carbon dioxide emissions as well.

Research shows that as humanity pours more carbon into the sky, the oceans are able to react by taking up more of it.

The Southern Ocean in particular is showing a healthy response, pulling more and more of our emissions down from the atmosphere.

On the face of it, the oceans are increasing their capacity to suck carbon out of the air, either by biological means or through simply mixing with the air, so some argue that we should relax and rely on these carbon sinks to avert dangerous warming of the ground level atmosphere – maintaining a healthy atmosphere for all land-based life.

However, this net reduction in atmospheric carbon dioxide due to this increased ocean carbon pump is masking the effects of global warming – for the time being. The oceans are warming, and this combined with increased overturning is resulting in the oceans giving up more carbon dioxide from their depths as a result.

For now, the ocean carbon sink is holding up and compensating for some global warming, but there are concerns should the carbon pump fail, or the effects of global warming overtake it.

The very latest research into changes in the World Ocean show clear trends in salinity – how fresh or how salty seawater is. These changes are associated with the higher energy in the Earth system : more heat captured by the ocean is making wind patterns more powerful, which makes ocean overturning stronger.

Of special concern is the effect this could have on the Southern Ocean. A stronger overturning would increase the upwelling of deep ocean water, which would draw long-sequestered carbon-rich gases from the deeps to the surface of the sea, where it would outgas to the atmosphere.

This is the scenario recently suggested to explain part of the process of how the Earth came out of the last glacial period over 15,000 years ago (“What causes the CO2 rise?”)

The biological productivity of the oceans, the levels of greenhouse gases in ocean water, and the strength of the carbon sinks will continue to be of intense concern as time passes.

Academic Freedom Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Rationing Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Geogingerneering Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Media Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Solar Sunrise Technofix Technological Sideshow The Power of Intention Unqualified Opinion Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Wind of Fortune

On Being Climate Pragmatic

Post author By Jo
Post date May 1, 2012
No Comments on On Being Climate Pragmatic

When it comes to proposals for climate change policy, most studies indicate technological efforts : some, fiscal measures.

Few, if any, really consider the pragmatic likelihood of their proposals being taken up.

I’d like to offer the first in a series of totally made-up statistics to show my view on the likelihood of some of these proposals being implementable (or is that “implementible” ?) and efficacious (effective).

I honestly don’t know why the media continue to discuss and discuss the merits and/or disbenefits of new nuclear power and geoengineering (which includes Carbon Capture and Storage or CCS).

They are not likely to be able to help in the next few decades, and so they might as well not be on the proposals table or board.

Climate Chaos Disturbing Trends Emissions Impossible Fossilised Fuels Freak Science Gamechanger Geogingerneering Global Singeing Hydrocarbon Hegemony Incalculable Disaster Major Shift Marine Gas Media Meltdown Methane Madness Methane Management Near-Natural Disaster Neverending Disaster Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Science Rules Screaming Panic Unnatural Gas Western Hedge

Arctic Meltdown : Methane Alert

Post author By Jo
Post date April 30, 2012
No Comments on Arctic Meltdown : Methane Alert

One of the key fears of cryosphere scientists, those who study the cold places on Earth, is a scenario where the permafrost and sub-sea continental shelves around the Arctic Ocean become unstable and start emitting uncontrollable quantities of methane into the atmosphere.

Methane is an important by-product of biological decomposition, and is also found in icy deposits known as clathrates – methane hydrates – estimated to be very widespread in marine and geological deposits.

Although it is short-lived, before breaking down or reacting with other molecules, methane is a powerful greenhouse gas, some 23 or 24 times more potent than carbon dioxide.

An ongoing unfreezing of the sub-zero “Northern Wastes” would set up a constant flow of biological methane into the Arctic sky and so the warming would be continuous – a major risk to attempts to limit climate change – because it could not be controlled by altering mankind’s economic and energy activities.

Reports of high levels of atmospheric methane in the Arctic region in the last few months have been mangled by the media headline generation machine to raise their urgency value – making them into “news” – and the reaction from most sensible academics and commentators is to downplay talk of a catastrophhic “Methane Burp”.

Yet the data is interesting enough to warrant continued monitoring and explanatory power – for the methane story is complex and shifting. It may be time for alarm bells to ring, however we’re not sure exactly how much data we need to see before we do so.

The long picture for methane in the air is one of hundreds of years of acceleration :-

In the last few decades however, atmospheric methane started to level off :-

However, since around 2007, methane concentrations have been rising once more :-

Following the recent headlines about high methane readings in the Arctic, there have been a number of online discsusions about what it could signify.

Tamino’s Open Mind doesn’t see a dangerous increase in emissions when looking at a seasonally-adjusted selection of data from the World Data Center for Greenhouse Gases and Earth System Research Laboratory (ESRL) flask measurements of methane concentrations at around surface level :-

I asked Giovanni to chart recent measurements from the AIRS project, the Atmospheric InfraRed Sounder on board NASA’s Aqua satellite spacecraft :-

The months December 2011 to January 2012 show a significant peak in methane concentrations in the area 60 degrees North to 90 degrees North.

This peak seen by satellite does not appear to be reflected in the surface measurement charts I asked the online ESRL tool to plot for me :-

What could be causing the satellite reading peaks to be so high relative to the changes in ground-based measurements ? What is happening in the different layers of the atmosphere ?

Has there been some kind of “detonation” of the chemistry of the air above the Arctic, causing peaks in methane concentrations at high altitudes not seen at ground level ?

Do the AIRS readings need adjustment because of unusual pressure and temperature gradients around the Arctic over the boreal (Northern Hemisphere) winter 2011 – 2012 ?

Has there been a rapid release of methane somewhere, such as from an oil and gas production field somewhere in the region ? Will the international greenhouse gas inventories compiled by the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol nations reveal anything about this ?

What on Earth is going on ?

A few resources

The starting point for atmospheric methane science is the UNFCCC IPCC Fourth Assessment Report.

Some recent research papers on atmospheric methane science :-

SCHAEFER, K., ZHANG, T., BRUHWILER, L. and BARRETT, A. P. (2011), Amount and timing of permafrost carbon release in response to climate warming. Tellus B, 63: 165–180. doi: 10.1111/j.1600-0889.2011.00527.x

Seen from the journal page.

Dlugokencky, E. J., et al. (2009), Observational constraints on recent increases in the atmospheric CH4 burden, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L18803, doi:10.1029/2009GL039780

Seen from the journal page.

Bousquet, P., Ringeval, B., Pison, I., Dlugokencky, E. J., Brunke, E.-G., Carouge, C., Chevallier, F., Fortems-Cheiney, A., Frankenberg, C., Hauglustaine, D. A., Krummel, P. B., Langenfelds, R. L., Ramonet, M., Schmidt, M., Steele, L. P., Szopa, S., Yver, C., Viovy, N., and Ciais, P.: Source attribution of the changes in atmospheric methane for 2006–2008, Atmos. Chem. Phys., 11, 3689-3700, doi:10.5194/acp-11-3689-2011, 2011 (Discussion Paper)

Seen from the journal page.

The Arctic Ocean could be a major source of methane

Joining the oil and gas industry in drilling the Arctic for clues

Big Picture Big Society Climate Change Climate Damages Cost Effective Disturbing Trends Droughtbowl Extreme Weather Floodstorm Freshwater Stress Global Warming Hide the Incline Human Nurture Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Rainstorm Realistic Models Science Rules Sea Level Risk Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Solution City The Data Water Wars

Climate Change : No Guarantee

Post author By Jo
Post date April 21, 2012
No Comments on Climate Change : No Guarantee

Image Credit : Eliasson Family

Walking out to buy a few household essentials from the corner shop, I ran into somebody I’ve known since my childhood, practically, returning from the drycleaners with two trailing kids in tow.

“Happy Spring !” I said, and smiled, and pointed out the lovely blossom on the urban street tree. Eldest child grumbled about hayfever. Parent mentioned April Showers.

“It’s been the wettest drought, ever !”, proclaimed eldest child, who I noticed was wearing a Team GB tracksuit and therefore probably up to speed with current events. “It has been rather damp”, I admitted, “and yet the drought’s not over yet. If you look at the Met Office records, you can see we’re still not up to normal levels of rainfall. And it was like this last year.” “And the year before that”, added parent, “although I expect for this month it might show we’ve had quite a lot more than normal.” (Select “Rainfall”)

Assets not Liabilities Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Electrificandum Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Energy Socialism Fossilised Fuels Major Shift Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Solar Sunrise

Solar FITs and Starts

The British Government’s solar power policy is not really going very well.

Ah well, at least the “nuclear power renaissance” is progressing…err, maybe not :-

“New nuclear electricity costs hit utility ratings – Moody’s : 27 Mar 2012

“Building a nuclear power plant is perceived as risky by credit rating agencies – and in some cases could lead to a ratings downgrade of the utility concerned, a senior analyst at US-based Moody’s told ICIS on Tuesday.”

“The analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, said an unfavourable attitude towards nuclear power stemmed largely from the scale of investment required, together with future uncertainties surrounding power prices.”

Climate Change Faithful God

The Archbishop of York

Image Credit : Christian Census on Climate Change

On Saturday 21st April 2012 at York Minster, Anglican Archbishop John Sentamu will preside over an event organised by the Christian Census on Climate Change.

Here follows the script for a speech to be given by Ruth Jarman, a Director of Operation Noah, climate change campaigner for the Christian Ecology Link, a trained chemist and electronics scientist and a mother of three.

Speech by Ruth Jarman, 21 April 2012, York Minster. Please check against delivery.

The solution

1. We know from the Psalms that God has made us ruler over the works of his hands, that he has put everything under our feet.

And we know from what we have heard this morning that we are trampling it all with abandon. Now we know that, what are we to do ?

Academic Freedom Bad Science Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Big Society Climate Change Climate Chaos Climate Damages Conflict of Interest Dead End Dead Zone Deal Breakers Delay and Deny Demoticratica Disturbing Trends Divide & Rule Energy Denial Freak Science Global Heating Global Warming Hide the Incline Human Nurture Mass Propaganda Media Neverending Disaster Non-Science Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Screaming Panic Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Social Democracy Sustainable Deferment The Data The War on Error Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change

Engagement Can Be Tiring

Image Credit : Skeptical Science

This is a record of a short email exchange.

I feel it encapsulates some of the difficulties of communicating climate change science when there are a large number of people in the conversation who have a destructive agenda.

They may have different reasons for attacking the process of science learning by the general population, but they unite on strategies that belittle people and spread doubt.

At the same time, there are people with accurate knowledge who take different positions about how much emphasis they should place on the risks posed by climate change.

We need to get our act together and form a united front, surely ?

Academic Freedom Global Heating Global Warming Science Rules The Data The War on Error

Met Office Data Uncertainties

Post author By Jo
Post date April 17, 2012
1 Comment on Met Office Data Uncertainties

Image Credit : Met Office

And the people cried “Let my data go !” And lo, it came to pass, that the time came for the UK’s Met Office’s Hadley Centre’s new HadCRUT4 near surface temperature analysis data set to be born online.

And across the land, the people wielded Excel spreadsheets and the like in the quest for visual engagement with the hot new numbers.

And it was seen that the year 2010 was hotter than 1998, and a number of other years in between were similarly warmer than 1998, and many climate change sceptics who had been so withering in their blanket denial of global warming quaked in their doubtful boots.

Interestingly, trends could be seen in the global averages, and so a linear trendline was plotted :-

Academic Freedom Bad Science Global Warming Science Rules Scientific Fallacy

What The IPCC Ignores, According To The GWPF

Post author By Jo
Post date April 16, 2012
No Comments on What The IPCC Ignores, According To The GWPF

The previous post in this series examined the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF) Briefing Paper No3 “The Truth About Greenhouse Gases“. Despite its title, Briefing Paper No3 said very little about such gases. Yet one subject (not directly to do with greenhouse gases) was discussed at some length within the paper. As it is also discussed in other GWPF papers, the subject will be examined in this fourth post of the series.

AN IMPOSSIBLE HOCKEY STICK AVERSION

This series of posts (1, 2, 3, 4) examines the UK-registered educational charity & climate-change denying think-tank the Global Warming Policy Foundation (GWPF). This fifth post examines one of the assertions made within GWPF Briefing Paper No1. The paper boldly claims that the findings of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (UN IPCC) are too narrow and that the work of “many scientists” is being ignored.

Can it be true ? Is there “an alternative (scientific) view“ being overlooked by the IPCC ? This would be a monumental discovery ! Forget Briefing Paper No1. Let's examine those overlooked scientists.

Academic Freedom Global Warming

What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #4

Post author By Jo
Post date April 15, 2012
No Comments on What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #4

I expect a number of my readers are objecting to my claim that global warming is accelerating.

“Look,” they might say, “you’ve drawn a conclusion based on only two sample time periods, and you’ve only been able to show a gradual, linear rising trend for each of them. You’ve haven’t shown any evidence for an exponential curve !”

Well, yet’s it’s true, I only presented the evidence that it appears that there is a linear (straight) rising trend in global average temperature in the periods 1970 to 2011 and 1915 to 1945. And show that the rising trend is steeper in the period 1970 to 2011 than in the period 1915 to 1945.

What I have not yet done is give a bit of perspective. You see, in historical, geological terms, recent temperature rises are on the steep part of an exponential curve – so steep and so sharp that they appear to be in a straight line.

Academic Freedom Big Picture Global Heating Global Warming Growth Paradigm Hide the Incline Science Rules Sea Level Risk The Data The War on Error

What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #3

Post author By Jo
Post date April 13, 2012
No Comments on What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #3

	Having found data that supports the argument that there is an acceleration in sea level rise, ocean heat uptake and atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations, I have now turned my attention to global warming – the warming of the close-to-ground (“near surface”) air and upper ocean water temperatures.
I’m still waiting to see the data for the new HadCRUT4 adjustments, so in the meantime, I have taken a look at the work of NASA GISS, and the international team who have agreed historical global warming influences – known as “radiative forcings”. Here’s the overall picture :- Continue reading “What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #3”

Academic Freedom Big Number Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Emissions Impossible Global Heating Global Warming Growth Paradigm Hide the Incline Major Shift Paradigm Shapeshifter Realistic Models Science Rules Sea Level Risk The Data The War on Error

What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #2

Post author By Jo
Post date April 10, 2012
No Comments on What’s Up ? Answer : Everything #2

Image Credit : Santer et al. (2011)

The El Nino Southern Oscillation is a flip-flop pattern, throwing wind and ocean currents periodically into reverse along the line of the Equator in the Pacific Ocean.

When it’s in the La Nina configuration, cold water from the ocean depths is cycled up to the surface, causing a massive plume of cooler-than-average temperatures. When the winds start looping in the other direction, a spear of warmer-than-average water spreads out across the ocean.

To even the most casual observer of global ocean and land temperatures, this see-saw is clearly a major influence on the data measurements – temperatures go up and down in a very regular fashion at decadal scale.

The size of the temperature swing has caused many to doubt or ignore the underlying global warming signal – but the instrumental record of temperatures is now long enough to reveal that despite the ENSO swings, temperatures as a whole are creeping upward.

Academic Freedom Bad Science Bait & Switch Delay and Deny Global Warming Hide the Incline Non-Science Pet Peeves Scientific Fallacy The Data The War on Error Unqualified Opinion Unutterably Useless Utter Futility

Bishop Hill : Wrong Conclusions

Post author By Jo
Post date April 9, 2012
No Comments on Bishop Hill : Wrong Conclusions

Today, another lesson in why I refuse to take climate change “sceptic” web logs seriously.

Willis Eschenbach has written a post for Anthony Watts on the “Watts Up With That” weblog, which has been dutifully echoed over at Andrew Montford’s “Bishop Hill” weblog.

The self-styled climate change “sceptics” are claiming that extra carbon dioxide in the atmosphere over the last five millenia has precipitated a decline in global temperatures.

Yet again, they don’t appear to have seen the broad picture.