Climate Change
NASA GISS compute that the period January to May for 2010 has been the hottest ever on record.
Of course, the Sun is the ultimate cause of rising temperatures on Earth. The energy from the Sun is the driving force behind all the weather systems, ocean currents, wind storms and cloud activity.
But it’s the things you can’t see that are the most significant.
While Europe has been enjoying an early Summer, elsewhere in the world high air temperatures have been record-breaking.
When the heat gets this bad, public services need to provide air-conditioned community shelters as a key adaptational strategy.
But any plans of this nature are being thwarted by power shortages, for example, in India and Pakistan :-
https://www.ecanadanow.com/world/2010/06/01/200-dead-in-india-heatwave/
“200 Dead In India Heatwave”, 01 June 2010
https://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/07/pakistan-energy-policy-proving-deadly
“Pakistan’s heatwave and a deadly lack of energy policy : The blackout-blighted country should be free to accept development help from China, and not rely on US financial aid : Nosheen Iqbal”, 07 June 2010
Clearly, the time has never been more right for clean, renewable energy.
You may be familiar with the Christian theology of Trinity – God the Father, Jesus (Messiah or Christ) his Son and the Holy Spirit all somehow united, living together, one being together, different aspects of the same Goodly Godness.
And you may be also be familiar with Communion, the communal ritual of eating bread and drinking wine as a church community, the coming together of the Children of God. “Remain in me”, says Jesus, talking about grafting his followers into this new and universal church Vine :-
https://www.biblegateway.com/passage/?search=John+15&version=NLT
Ex-Members of Parliament and ex-Ministers of Government usually have a lot to say about Climate Change and Energy. Colin Challen, formerly MP for Morley and Rotherwell, is a prime case in point.
What the world needs now is a new world order – a global framework for carbon emissions control – and that framework is Contraction and Convergence. Colin Challen has written a powerful statement to Chris Huhne MP, the new Minister for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, and would like us all to co-sign it :-
https://www.gci.org.uk/politics.html
Naturally, I have already signed this letter, because I know that Contraction and Convergence has to be at the heart of future international negotiations on Climate Change :-
https://www.joabbess.com/2010/04/30/the-price-of-carbon/
I hope you can all co-sign the letter with me.
To : The Diocese of Chelmsford, Environment Group
Date : 30 May 2010
Subject : Motion for the Church of England Synod
Dear Environment Group,
I am aware that you are soon to decide on bringing a motion to Synod, in support of the Church of England’s Seven Year “Church and Earth” Climate Change Action Plan.
I am also aware of recent news that may affect your deliberations :-
“Rebel scientists force Royal Society to accept climate change scepticism”
The Times of London, 29 May 2010
https://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7139407.ece
“Royal Society to publish guide on climate change to counter claims of ‘exaggeration'”
Daily Telegraph, 29 May 2010
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/7778917/Royal-Society-to-publish-guide-on-climate-change-to-counter-claims-of-exaggeration.html
“Harrabin’s Notes: Getting the message : In his regular column, BBC environment analyst Roger Harrabin looks at the fall-out from complaints that some of the Royal Society had oversimplified its messages in public statements on climate change.”
BBC, 29 May 2010
https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/science_and_environment/10178454.stm
May I commend to you the work of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), the National Academy of Sciences in the United States of America, and in Great Britain the work of the Meteorological Office and the Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, in reaching resolution to your deliberations.
Image Credit : SkepticalScience.com
It should come as no surprise that the United Nations (under UNFCCC) commissioned a report from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), way back in 2007.
The revelation is that very few people appear to have read any of it.
So I thought I would present just a little about the “robust findings” of Working Group 1 (WG1 or WGI) of the Fourth Assessment Report (AR4). I think the IPCC’s science needs a wider public readership, and so I hope that this post in some way enables that.
The unpacking of the Working Group 1 report “Climate Change 2007 : The Physical Science Basis” could begin by looking at the Technical Summary, or the overall AR4 Technical Summary, or the Synthesis Report, or their respective Summaries for Policymakers.
What’s the difference ? Why is Global Warming not the same as Climate Change ? And why do we call Global Warming “anthropogenic” ? How do we know recent Global Warming is caused by mankind’s activities ?
So, what is Global Warming ?
1. Carbon Dioxide is a Greenhouse Gas
Without Carbon Dioxide and other Greenhouse Gases in the Atmosphere (air), the temperature at the Earth’s surface would be something like 30 degrees Celsius colder than it is now.
This is a well-established fact, about which there there is no dispute. Well, OK, some people dispute it, but the fact that they dispute it does not alter the data.
It’s also a well-established old fact : the original science about the Greenhouse Effect was done over 100 years ago :-
https://www.aip.org/history/climate/
https://www.aip.org/history/climate/summary.htm
A few new melodies…
Global Campaign for Climate Action :-
https://gc-ca.org/
10:10 :-
https://www.1010global.org/uk
James Hansen :-
https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/
Costa Rica ! :-
https://www.google.com/hostednews/ap/article/ALeqM5jqJmnNVzfiUOeSlVG4f8nQMbwQYQD9FOOERO0
Pacha Mama, Cochabamba :-
https://climateradio.org/next-episode/
Bringing Perspective
Is BP plc a Sustainable Business ?
An assessment of BP plc’s performance in relation to their climate change impact, and their approach towards ensuring both environmental sustainability and corporate survival.
by Jo Abbess
29 April 2010
INTRODUCTION
The Research Question
This piece of research seeks to assess how BP plc is making adaptations in its corporate strategy, in view of the risks to its operations posed by Climate Change policy, and in the context of Peak Oil production and the subsequent inevitable Peak in Natural Gas.
Theories and Propositions
The author of this research has the view that over the course of the next 50 years, due to limits on supplies of good quality fossil fuels, and to avoid the risks of dangerous climate change from global warming, the world economy must de-carbonise, and entirely replace its sources of energy and fuel with low carbon alternatives.
According to this projection, any company that wishes to remain in business should begin their process of total decarbonisation immediately, and will be expected to show evidence for their intentions and procedures for change. This is likely to be particularly difficult for Oil and Gas companies, as their core business is based on energy and fuel resources that must be entirely replaced.
The 50 year timeframe may be beyond the thinking of most political analysts, but is relevant to pension funds, annuity providers and insurance companies. Investors are likely to become more interested in determining the carbon “liabilities” of fossil fuel stocks and shares, and take a risk-averse approach to future stakes in Oil, Gas, Coal and other high carbon fuels.
The Price of Carbon
by Jo Abbess
20 April 2010
1. Introduction
Policy strategy for controlling risky excess atmospheric greenhouse gas (Gowdy, 2008, Sect. 4; McKibben, 2007, Ch. 1, pp. 19-20; Solomon et al., 2009; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 6, pp. 205-208) mostly derives from the notion that carbon dioxide emissions should be charged for, in order to prevent future emissions; similar to treatment for environmental pollutants (Giddens, 2009, Ch. 6, pp. 149-155; Gore, 2009, Ch. 15 “The True Cost of Carbon”; Pigou, 1932; Tickell, 2008, Ch.4, Box 4.1, pp. 112-116). Underscoring this idea is the evidence that fines, taxes and fees modify behaviour, reigning in the marginal social cost of “externalities” through financial disincentive (Baumol, 1972; Sandmo, 2009; Tol, 2008). However this approach may not enable the high-value, long-term investment required for decarbonisation, which needs adjustments to the economy at scale (CAT, 2010; Hepburn and Stern, 2008, pp. 39-40, Sect. (ii) “The Consequences of Non-marginality”; MacKay, 2008, Ch. 19; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 2, pp. 40-41).
CLIMATE VIGIL PRAYERS
1. Christian Ecology Link, the Campaign against Climate Change, and other members of the Stop Climate Chaos coalition are holding an overnight vigil between Saturday 15th May 2010 and Sunday 16 May 2010, celebrating the Earth in the Arts, and reminding the newly-formed British Government to act decisively and urgently on Climate Change.
2. As part of the Climate Vigil, Christian Ecology Link, with the support of Operation Noah, are offering a meeting of Christian prayer, music and reflection at St Martin-in-the-Fields Church, Trafalgar Square, London WC2N 4JJ, on Saturday 15th May 2010 at 11pm (23:00), to which all are welcome.
3. Mark Dowd of Operation Noah, Channel 4 “God is Green” documentary presenter, will address those meeting at St-Martins-in-the-Fields Church, on the subject of the crisis in Climate Change, the damages the World is already experiencing, the failures in the international negotiations, and hopes for what the new British Government can bring.
I sometimes read the Foreign Affairs magazine, as the articles are written by influential people, some of whom appear to be remarkably knowledgable and sane.
However, trying to read a recent piece by BP’s Chief Economist Christof Ruehl was a journey with little progress, so I’m sorry to admit I couldn’t bring myself to finish digesting it.
The man’s head appears to have been spun, or he might have had a mission to spin his readership. All the same, it’s worthy of a Koan award (see YouTube on this page).
“Global Energy After the Crisis : Prospects and Priorities” by Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist of BP plc, writing in Foreign Affairs Magazine, Volume 89, Number 2, March/April 2010 :-
As seen on a YouTube here : https://www2.ucar.edu/news/missing-heat-may-affect-future-climate-change
The Earth is heating up, as evidenced by a number of direct measurements. However, we do not know where all the heat is located. Here’s what Kevin Trenberth has written, which should be clear for anybody who has a reasonably good command of the English language :-
Last Wednesday’s “Sceptic Backlash” meeting ended with a lively Question and Answer session. Here it is as I recorded it :-
https://www.campaigncc.org/scepticsmeeting
Q. (from Christian Hunt, a plant in the audience from Greenpeace)
– You say it’s just the journalists who are the sceptics. What happens if another Government comes in and scepticism gets political footholds ? [ reference to Conservative Party Climate Change sceptics ]
A. (Phil Thornhill, Campaign against Climate Change)
– People shy away from the problem if they can’t find solutions. We propose a million Climate jobs – there are lots of ways of dealing with the crisis. That’s the kind of thing we should be emphasising.
Q. Andrew Neill interviewed Caroline Lucas and asked her about the Phil Jones interview with the BBC where he said there had been no “statistically significant” warming in the last 15 years. Has there been no statistically significant warming or not ? Why wouldn’t Caroline Lucas, head of the Green Party, say “you’re wrong” ?
A. (Phil)
– I wrote her a rather long e-mail. You can’t really debate Science in the popular Media. Most people don’t understand.
– The tip for answering this kind of question is – in 15 years, it’s hard to spot a trend against the background noise. It’s a difficult thing to explain.
– It’ a clear case of how once you start debating the Science it gets twisted. She should have said “this is a typical case of the misrepresentation of Science”.
A. (Ben Stewart, Greenpeace Media)
– She was fine to say “I’ll take a pass on that”.
[ Left to Right : Phil Thornhill (Campaign against Climate Change), Dr David Adam (The Guardian) ]
I bet you all thought I was going to talk about Professor Phil Jones, who has been completely and utterly exonerated this week :-
https://www.desmogblog.com/second-expert-panel-shows-climategate-was-sham
https://scienceblogs.com/deltoid/2010/04/phil_jones_vindicated_some_mor.php
But, no. I’m going to report on what Phil Thornhill said on Wednesday at the “Sceptic Backlash” meeting.
[ Left to Right : Dr David Adam (The Guardian), Ben Stewart (Greenpeace), Tooki the Toucan operated by George Marshall (ClimateDenial.org) and Marina from Campaign against Climate Change]
On Wednesday evening, at the “Sceptic Backlash” public event, hosted by the Campaign against Climate Change, communications researcher George Marshall introduced the meeting to an unusual commentator on Climate Change…
https://www.campaigncc.org/scepticsmeeting
https://www.joabbess.com/2010/04/15/ben-stewart-greenpeace-stalking/
https://www.joabbess.com/2010/04/15/david-adam-liberal-pacifier/
Here is a transcript of what George Marshall said (as I have it) :-
– I do a lot of work around Climate Change communications and information.
– Climate Change is a large and technical issue. No one has the time to get totally on top of it. Even within the Science the specialists only look at their specialist areas.
– The average Media “punter” (somebody looking for information) is looking for a shortcut – their “ask” is “just tell me what’s going on”.
– Most people ask “Dave” down the pub (public house, bar). Friends and acquaintances in bars are the most important people in your social network, no doubt.
– And Dave says he saw this thing on telly (television)…
– The average person is just looking for a source of information that has some kind of authority…
Isn’t the Earth amazing ? Doesn’t it inspire you to awe ?
And look how we human beings continue to mess the nest, burn the sky, smoke out children’s lungs, tarmac over paradise. We tear down trees to turn to kitchen paper and throwaway napkins. We carve up Nature so we can feast every day. We turn the whole world ocean into a chemistry set so we can have exotic plastics, fertilisers and inks.
Yes, we’re small, but we’re too significant. Our abuse of fossil fuels means we could still be responsible for the genocide of not only ourselves, but the vivicide of the rest of Life on Earth.
Fighting haze and smog from transport and industry may give us some breathing space (literally and metaphorically), by holding back Global Warming for a while, allowing us the time to get some effective legislation on turning back rising Carbon Dioxide emissions.
https://switchboard.nrdc.org/blogs/dbailey/carbon_crossroads_california_c.html
https://www.time.com/time/health/article/0,8599,1938379,00.html
https://blogs.nasa.gov/cm/blog/whatonearth/posts/post_1270497028672.html
https://www.physorg.com/news170006509.html
https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/?report=global&year=2010&month=3&submitted=Get+Report
“The combined global land and ocean average surface temperature for March 2010 was the warmest on record…”
[ Music Credit : Massive Attack; Album : “100th Window”; Track : 1 “Future Proof”. Listen in : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=atbPFkhTzh0 ]
Everybody has a Climate Change story. I remember hearing a colleague explain how she nearly died when driving a rental car in the United States and the vehicle got swept along the road by unusually high flood waters. I remember a contact talking about branches dropping from drought-stricken trees in Central France during the freak Summer heatwave of 2003. I have relatives in Atlanta, Georgia, who talk about the water supply problem and disappearing rivers…
It’s time to tell people who are sceptical that you know Climate Change is happening, right now…
Dr David Adam, Environmental correspondent at The Guardian newspaper, the “home” of the political Left and Liberal in the United Kingdom, was disappointingly pacifying at the “Sceptic Backlash” event in London yesterday evening.
“Please don’t over-estimate the damage being done by Climategate”, he urged the audience, comparing the sceptic bug-bear to the Bush-and-Cheney narrative about dangerous terrorism which used to get people so worked up, (riled enough, remember ?, to sacrifice their youth and their entire Economy to the new American project of killing innocent women, children and men in the Middle East. Such a good decade for Big Business !)
I read that David Adam used to write about scientific research in Nature magazine before he became Science, and then Environment correspondent at The Guardian.
Funnily enough, I seem to recall meeting somebody who could well have been David Adam in First Class on the Eurostar train service from London to Brussels some time in the late 1990’s. If it was David Adam, his declared profession had nothing to do with journalism, or even chemical engineering (which David Adam studied). I can’t be sure. I don’t always remember faces from more than ten years ago, especially people I have only met once, but his expressions and mannerisms when I saw him yesterday triggered the same reactions in my mind. How strange…but anyway…
I was incensed. Outraged. Deflated, by David Adam’s liberal dismissiveness of the power of Climate Change scepticism, to divide a nation, to cause countless arguments – classic divide-and-rule tactics.
[ CORRECTION FROM JOABBESS.COM IN BOLD ]
Mr Ben Stewart, Head of Media at Greenpeace UK, may have no hair, but he does have a considerable number of brain cells, and he says that journalists who are Climate Sceptics need to be afraid, very afraid.
Last night at the “Sceptic Backlash” event hosted by the “Campaign against Climate Change” (what a mouthful, Phil Thornhill ! Get the name or your organisation changed ! Immediately !), Ben Stewart said, “we need to pull together a community of activists to hold journalists to account. We have to launch a campaign so these people are scared of us.”
Well, you could call this bravado, or you could call it a statement of intent. I think I’d probably plump for the latter.
So here’s a message to all those Climate Change sceptical journalists and sundry denier-obstructer bloggists out there : brace yourselves. Climate Change is coming !
So, I’m standing in the G2 theatre at the School of Oriental and African Studies, after the “Sceptic Backlash” event, talking with two Climate Change activists, one Irish, one American.
The question arises : since our lifestyles are causing deadly Climate Change for people in other parts of the world, maybe we should have communications based around pictures of suffering children ?
I disagree. I point out that when the environmentalists put out posters about Polar Bears, that the audience pretty quickly realised that the Polar Bears were being used as a “poster child” for Climate Change, and they started to mock the campaigning.
Here is a copy of the contact I just submitted at JamesDelingpole.com :-
https://jamesdelingpole.com/contact/
Dear Mr Delingpole,
You are cordially invited to a presentation, with question and answer session, on the nature of Climate Change scepticism in the Media :-
https://www.campaigncc.org/scepticsmeeting
This will take place tomorrow, Wednesday 14th April 2010, 6.30pm (or 18:30), at the School of Oriental and African Studies, Thornhaugh Street, off Russell Square, in Venue G2. Entry for you, as for all attendees, will be free and for gratis.
As you will be able to see from the fact sheets and articles associated with the event, Climategate features quite highly in the analysis, and presumably will be one of the main subjects of the debate :-
https://www.campaigncc.org/sceptics
https://climatesafety.org/climategate-a-briefer/
Now, as one of the principal architects of the Media scandal known as Climategate (in fact, if I’m not mistaken, you named it), I am sure you would like to contribute your insight and experience to the discussion, and that your contribution would be most welcome.
In addition to hearing your erudite commentary in person, I am sure that your presence at the event will contribute an enormous amount in terms of raising the profile of the subject of the Media treatment of Climate Change.
It would also be an opportunity to meet some of your opponents in person, in a public space, and talk things over in a calm, civil manner, which I’m sure you would appreciate; perturbed, as I know you are, by the whole subject of Climate Change communications.
I fully intend to attend the event myself, and it would be a pleasure to meet you in person, shake you warmly by the hand, and thank you vigorously for raising the level of Climate Change urgency in the Media.
Happy Days,
Ms J. Abbess BSc
Let’s see if the great man responds…
If you’re reading this in the Southern Hemisphere, you will probably already know that the temperatures have been somewhat heated since the beginning of this year.
If you’re reading this in the Northern Hemisphere, and I know most of you are, because I’ve checked, you will probably not have the faintest idea that local cold does not mean global cold.
What’s been happening, to use colloquial, ordinary, everyday language, is that the Climate has been changing at the top of the world, the region near the North Pole. Winds have changed, patterns of heating and freezing have changed, rain and snowfall have changed.
This has had a knock-on effect – some of the areas further South have had a great deal of cooling over Winter. The Arctic has been acting like a giant air conditioner for parts of Northern Europe and Northern America.
You shiver in Paris (or London, or New York), but the Siberian and Canadian permafrost is melting.