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James Delingpole : Worsely Wronger

I wonder to myself – how wrong can James Delingpole get ? He, and Christopher Booker and Richard North, have recently attempted to describe something very, very simple in the National Grid’s plans to keep the lights on. And have failed, in my view. Utterly. In my humble opinion, it’s a crying shame that they appear to influence others.

“Dellingpole” (sic) in the Daily Mail, claims that the STOR – the Short Term Operating Reserve (not “Operational” as “Dellingpole” writes) is “secret”, for “that significant period when the wind turbines are not working”, and that “benefits of the supposedly ‘clean’ energy produced by wind turbines are likely to be more than offset by the dirty and inefficient energy produced by their essential diesel back-up”, all of which are outrageously deliberate misinterpretations of the facts :-

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2362762/The-dirty-secret-Britains-power-madness-Polluting-diesel-generators-built-secret-foreign-companies-kick-theres-wind-turbines–insane-true-eco-scandals.html
“The dirty secret of Britain’s power madness: Polluting diesel generators built in secret by foreign companies to kick in when there’s no wind for turbines – and other insane but true eco-scandals : By James Dellingpole : PUBLISHED: 00:27, 14 July 2013”

If “Dellingpole” and his compadre in what appear to be slurs, Richard North, were to ever do any proper research into the workings of the National Grid, they would easily uncover that the STOR is a very much transparent, publicly-declared utility :-

https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Balancing/services/balanceserv/reserve_serv/stor/

STOR is not news. Neither is the need for it to be beefed up. The National Grid will lose a number of electricity generation facilities over the next few years, and because of the general state of the economy (and resistance to wind power and solar power from unhelpful folk like “Dellingpole”) investment in true renewables will not entirely cover this shortfall.

Renewable energy is intermittent and variable. If an anticyclone high pressure weather system sits over Britain, there could be little wind. And if the sky is cloudy, there could be much less sun than normal. More renewable power feeding the grid means more opportunities when these breaks in service amount to something serious.

Plus, the age of other electricity generation plants means that the risk of “unplanned outage”, from a nuclear reactor, say, is getting higher. There is a higher probability of sudden step changes in power available from any generator.

The gap between maximum power demand and guaranteed maximum power generation is narrowing. In addition, the threat of sudden changes in output supply is increasing.

With more generation being directly dependent on weather conditions and the time of day, and with fears about the reliability of ageing infrastructure, there is a need for more very short term immediate generation backup to take up the slack. This is where STOR comes in.

Why does STOR need to exist ? The answer’s in the name – for short term balancing issues in the grid. Diesel generation is certainly not intended for use for long periods. Because of air quality issues. Because of climate change issues. Because of cost.

If the Meteorological Office were to forecast a period of low wind and low incident solar radiation, or a nuclear reactor started to dip in power output, then the National Grid could take an old gas plant (or even an old coal plant) out of mothballs, pull off the dust sheets and crank it into action for a couple of days. That wouldn’t happen very often, and there would be time to notify and react.

But if a windfarm suddenly went into the doldrums, or a nuclear reactor had to do an emergency shutdown, there would be few power stations on standby that could respond immediately, because it takes a lot of money to keep a power plant “spinning”, ready to use at a moment’s notice.

So, Delingpole, there’s no conspiracy. There’s engagement with generators to set up a “first responder” network of extra generation capacity for the grid. This is an entirely public process. It’s intended for short bursts of immediately-required power because you can’t seem to turn your air conditioner off. The cost and emissions will be kept to a minimum. You’re wrong. You’re just full of a lot of hot air.

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Battle of the Lords

I don’t quite know what powers Lord Deben, John Gummer, but he looks remarkably wired on it. At this week’s PRASEG Annual Conference, he positively glowed with fervour and gumption. He regaled us with tales of debate in the House of Lords, the UK’s parliamentary “senior” chamber. He is a known climate change science adherent, and in speaking to PRASEG, he was preaching to the choir, but boy, did he give a bone-rattling homily !

As Chairman of the Committee on Climate Change, he is fighting the good fight for carbon targets to be established in all areas of legislation, especially the in-progress Energy Bill. He makes the case that emissions restraint and constraint is now an international business value, and of importance to infrastructure investment :-

“The trouble with energy efficiency is that it’s not “boys’ toys” – there’s no “sex” in it. It is many small things put together to make a big thing. We won’t get to a point of decarbonisation unless we [continuously] make [the case for] [continuous] investment. […] GLOBE [of which I am a member] in a report – 33 major countries – doing so much. […] Look at what China is doing. Now a competitive world. If we want people to come here and invest, we need to have a carbon intensity target in 2030 [which will impact] [manufacturing] and the supply chain. [With the current strategy, the carbon targets are] put down in 2020 and picked up again in 2050. Too long a gap for business. They don’t know what happens in between. This is not all about climate change. It is about UK plc.”

To supplement this diet of upbeat encouragement, he added a good dose of scorn for fellow Lords of the House, the Lords Lawson (Nigel Lawson) and Lord Ridley (Matt Ridley) who, he seemed to be suggesting, clearly have not mastered the science of climate change, and who, I believe he imputed, have lost their marbles :-

“Apart from one or two necessary sideswipes, I agree with the previous speaker. There is no need for disagreement except for those who dismiss climate change. [I call them “dismissers” as we should not] dignify their position by calling them “sceptics”. We are the sceptics. We come to a conclusion based on science and we revisit it every time new science comes our way. They rifle through every [paper] to find every little bit that suppports their argument. I’ve listened to the interventions [in the House of Lords reading of and debate on the Energy Bill] of that group. Their line is the Earth is not [really] warming, so, it’s too expensive to do anything. This conflicts with today’s World Meteorological Organization measurements – that the last decade has been the warmest ever. I bet you that none of them [Lords] will stand up [in the House of Lords] and say “Sorry. We got it wrong.” They pick one set of statistics and ignore the rest. It is a concentrated effort to undermine by creating doubt. Our job is constantly to make it clear they we don’t need to argue the case – the very best science makes it certain [but never absolute]. You would be very foolish to ignore the consensus of view. […] In a serious grown-up world, we accept the best advice – always keeping an eye out for new information. Otherwise, [you would] make decisions on worst information – no sane person does that.”

He encouraged us to encourage the dissenters on climate change science to view the green economy as an insurance policy :-

“Is there a householder here who does not insure their houses against fire ? You have a 98% change of not having a fire. Yet you spend on average £140 a year on insurance. Because of the size of the disaster – the enormity of the [potential] loss. Basic life-supporting insurance. I’m asking for half of that. If only Lord Lawson would listen to the facts instead of that Doctor of Sports Science, Benny Peiser. Or Matt Ridley – an expert in the sexual habits of pheasants. If I want to know about pheasants, I will first ask Lord Ridley. Can he understand why I go to a climatologist first ? [To accept his view of the] risks effects of climate change means relying on the infallibility of Lord Lawson […]”

He spoke of cross-party unity over the signing into law of the Climate Change Act, and the strength of purpose within Parliament to do the right thing on carbon. He admitted that there were elements of the media and establishment who were belligerently or obfuscatingly opposing the right thing to do :-

“[We] can only win if the world outside has certainty about institutional government. This is a battle we have taken on and won’t stop till we win it. [The Lord Lawson and Lord Ridley and their position is] contrary to science, contrary to sense and contrary to the principle of insurance. They will not be listened to, not now, until UK has reduced level of carbon emissions, and we have [promised] our grandchildren they they are safe from climate change.”

Phew ! That was a war cry, if ever there was one ! We are clearly in the Salvation Army ! I noted the attendance list, that showed several Gentlemen and Ladies of the Press should have been present, and hope to read good reports, but know that in some parts of the Gutter, anti-science faecal detritus still swirls. We in One Birdcage Walk were the assembly of believers, but the general public conversation on carbon is poisoned with sulphurous intent.

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Birdcage Walk : Cheesestick Rationing


Yesterday…no, it’s later than I think…two days ago, I attended the 2013 Conference of PRASEG, the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group, at the invitation of Rhys Williams, the long-suffering Coordinator. “…Sorry…Are you upset ?” “No, look at my face. Is there any emotion displayed there ?” “No, you look rather dead fish, actually”, etc.

At the prestigious seat of the Institute of Mechanical Engineers (IMechE), One Birdcage Walk, we were invited down into the basement for a “drinks reception”, after hearing some stirring speeches and intriguing panel discussions. Despite being promised “refreshments” on the invitation, there had only been beverages and a couple of bikkies up until now, and I think several of the people in the room were starting to get quite hypoglycemic, so were grateful to see actual food being offered.

A market economy immediately sprang up, as there was a definite scarcity in the resources of cheesesticks, and people jostled amiably, but intentionally, so they could cluster closest to the long, crispy cow-based snacks. The trading medium of exchange was conversation. “Jo, meet Mat Hope from Carbon Brief, no Maf Smith from Renewable UK. You’ve both been eviscerated by Delingpole online”, and so on.

“Welcome to our own private pedestal”, I said to somebody, who it turned out had built, probably in the capacity of developer, a sugarcane bagasse Combined Heat and Power plant. The little table in the corner had only got room around it for three or at most four people, and yet had a full complement of snack bowls. Bonus. I didn’t insist on memorising what this fellow told me his name was. OK, I didn’t actually hear it above the hubbub. And he was wearing no discernible badge, apart from what appeared to be the tinge of wealth. He had what looked like a trailing truculent teenager with him, but that could have been a figment of my imagination, because the dark ghost child spoke not one word. But that sullenness, and general anonymity, and the talkative gentleman’s lack of a necktie, and his slightly artificial, orange skin tone, didn’t prevent us from engaging wholeheartedly in a discussion about energy futures – in particular the default options for the UK, since there is a capacity crunch coming very soon in electricity generation, and new nuclear power reactors won’t be ready in time, and neither will Carbon Capture and Storage-fitted coal-fired power plants.

Of course, the default options are basically Natural Gas and wind power, because large amounts can be made functional within a five year timeframe. My correspondent moaned that gas plants are closing down in the UK. We agreed that we thought that new Combined Cycle Gas Turbine plant urgently needs to be built as soon as possible – but he despaired of seeing it happen. He seemed to think it was essential that the Energy Bill should be completed as soon as possible, with built-in incentives to make Gas Futures a reality.

I said, “Don’t wait for the Energy Bill”. I said, “Intelligent people have forecast what could happen to Natural Gas prices within a few years from high European demand and UK dependence, and are going to build gas plant for themselves. We simply cannot have extensions on coal-fired power plants…” He agreed that the Large Combustion Plant Directive would be closing the coal. I said that there was still something like 20 gigawatts of permissioned gas plant ready to build – and with conditions shaping up like they are, they could easily get financed.

Earlier, Nigel Cornwall, of Cornwall Energy had put it like this :-

“Deliverability and the trilemma [meeting all three of climate change, energy security and end-consumer affordability concerns] [are key]. Needs to be some joined-up thinking. […] There is clearly a deteriorating capacity in output – 2% to 5% reduction. As long as I’ve worked in the sector it’s been five minutes to midnight, [only assuaged by] creative thinking from National Grid.”

However, the current situation is far from bog standard. As Paul Dickson of Glennmont Partners said :-

“£110 billion [is needed] to meet the [electricity generation] gap. We are looking for new sources of capital. Some of the strategic institutional capital – pension funds [for example] – that’s who policy needs to be directed towards. We need to look at sources of capital.”

Alistair Buchanan, formerly of Ofgem, the power sector regulator, and now going to KPMG, spent the last year or so of his Ofgem tenure presenting the “Crunch Winter” problem to as many people as he could find. His projections were based on a number of factors, including Natural Gas supply questions, and his conclusion was that in the winter of 2015/2016 (or 2016/2017) power supply could get thin in terms of expansion capacity – for moments of peak demand. Could spell crisis.

The Government might be cutting it all a bit fine. As Jenny Holland of the Association for the Conservation of Energy said :-

“[Having Demand Reduction in the Capacity Mechanism] Not our tip-top favourite policy outcome […] No point to wait for “capacity crunch” to start [Energy Demand Reduction] market.”

It does seem that people are bypassing the policy waiting queue and getting on with drawing capital into the frame. And it is becoming more and more clear the scale of what is required. Earlier in the afternoon, Caroline Flint MP had said :-

“In around ten years time, a quarter of our power supply will be shut down. Decisions made in the next few years. Consequences will last for decades. Keeping the lights on, and [ensuring reasonably priced] energy bills, and preventing dangerous climate change.”

It could come to pass that scarcity, not only in cheesesticks, but in electricity generation capacity, becomes a reality. What would policy achieve then ? And how should Government react ? Even though Lord Deben (John Gummer) decried in the early afternoon a suggestion implying carbon rationing, proposed to him by Professor Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute, it could yet turn out that electricity demand reduction becomes a measure that is imposed in a crisis of scarcity.

As I put it to my sugarcane fellow discussionee, people could get their gas for heating cut off at home in order to guarantee the lights and banks and industry stay on, because UK generation is so dependent on Natural Gas-fired power.

Think about it – the uptake of hyper-efficient home appliances has turned down owing to the contracting economy, and people are continuing to buy and use electronics, computers, TVs and other power-sucking gadgets. Despite all sizes of business having made inroads into energy management, electricity consumption is not shifting downwards significantly overall.

We could beef up the interconnectors between the UK and mainland Europe, but who can say that in a Crunch Winter, the French and Germans will have any spare juice for us ?

If new, efficient gas-fired power plants are not built starting now, and wind farms roll out is not accelerated, the Generation Gap could mean top-down Energy Demand Reduction measures.

It would certainly be a great social equaliser – Fuel Poverty for all !

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Carbon Bubble : Unburnable Assets



[ Image Credit : anonymous ]


Yet again, the fossil fuel companies think they can get away with uncommented public relations in my London neighbourhood. Previously, it was BP, touting its green credentials in selling biofuels, at the train station, ahead of the Olympic Games. For some reason, after I made some scathing remarks about it, the advertisement disappeared, and there was a white blank board there for weeks.

This time, it’s Esso, and they probably think they have more spine, as they’ve taken multiple billboard spots. In fact, the place is saturated with this advertisement. And my answer is – yes, fuel economy is important to me – that’s why I don’t have a car.

And if this district is anything to go by, Esso must be pouring money into this advertising campaign, and so my question is : why ? Why aren’t they pouring this money into biofuels research ? Answer : because that’s not working. So, why aren’t they putting this public relations money into renewable gas fuels instead, sustainable above-surface gas fuels that can be used in compressed gas cars or fuel cell vehicles ?

Are Esso retreating into their “core business” like BP, and Shell, concentrating on petroleum oil and Natural Gas, and thereby exposing all their shareholders to the risk of an implosion of the Carbon Bubble ? Or another Deepwater Horizon, Macondo-style blowout ?

Meanwhile, the movement for portfolio investors to divest from fossil fuel assets continues apace…

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Renewable Gas : Research Parameters

“So what do you do ?” is a question I quite frequently have to answer, as I meet a lot of new people, in a lot of new audiences and settings, on a regular basis, as an integral part of my personal process of discovery.

My internal autocue answer has modified, evolved, over the years, but currently sounds a lot like this, “I have a couple of part-time jobs, office administration, really. I do a spot of weblogging in my spare time. But I’m also doing some research into the potential for Renewable Gas.” I then pause for roughly two seconds. “Renewable Gas ?” comes back the question.

“Yes,” I affirm in the positive, “Industrial-scale chemistry to produce gas fuels not dug up out of the ground. It is useful to plug the gaps in Renewable Electricity when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing.”

It’s not exactly an elevator pitch – I’m not really selling anything except a slight shift in the paradigm here. Renewable Energy. Renewable Electricity. Renewable Gas. Power and gas. Gas and power. It’s logical to want both to be as renewable and sustainable and as low carbon as possible.

Wait another two seconds. “…What, you mean, like Biogas ?” comes the question. “Well, yes, and also high volumes of non-biological gas that’s produced above the ground instead of from fossil fuels.”

The introductory chat normally fades after this exchange, as my respondent usually doesn’t have the necessary knowledge architecture to be able to make any sense of what my words represent. I think it’s fair to say I don’t win many chummy friends paradigm-bumping in this way, and some probably think I’m off the deep end psychologically, but hey, evolutionaries don’t ever have it easy.

And I also find that it’s not easy to find a place in the hierarchy of established learning for my particular “research problem”. Which school could I possibly join ? Which research council would adopt me ?

The first barrier to academic inclusion is that my research interest is clearly motivated by my concern about the risks of Climate Change – the degradation in the Earth’s life support systems from pumping unnaturally high volumes of carbon dioxide into the air – and Peak Fossil Fuels – the risks to humanity from a failure to grow subsurface energy production.

My research is therefore “applied” research, according to the OECD definition (OECD, 2002). It’s not motivated simply by the desire to know new things – it is not “pure” research – it has an end game in mind. My research is being done in order to answer a practical problem – how to decarbonise gaseous, gas phase, energy fuel production.

The second barrier to the ivory tower world that I have is that I do not have a technological contribution to make with this research. I am not inventing a chemical process that can “revolutionise” low carbon energy production. (I don’t believe in “revolutions” anyway. Nothing good ever happens by violent overthrow.) My research is not at the workbench end of engineering, so I am not going to work amongst a team of industrial technicians, so I am not going to produce a patent for clean energy that could save the world (or the economy).

My research is more about observing and reporting the advances of others, and how these pieces add up to a journey of significant change in the energy sector. I want to join the dots from studies at the leading edge of research, showing how this demonstrates widespread aspiration for clean energy, and document instances of new energy technology, systems and infrastructure. I want to witness to the internal motivation of thousands of people working with the goal of clean energy across a very wide range of disciplines.

This is positively positive; positivity, but it’s not positivism – it’s not pure, basic research. This piece of research could well influence people and events – it’s certainly already influencing me. It’s not hands-off neutral science. It interacts with its subjects. It intentionally intervenes.

Since I don’t have an actual physical contribution or product to offer, and since I fully expect it to “interfere” with current dogma and political realities, what I am doing will be hard to acknowledge.

This is not a PhD. But it is still a piece of philosophy, the love of wisdom that comes from the acquisition of knowledge.

I have been clear for some time about what I should be studying. Call it “internal drive” if you like. The aim is to support the development of universal renewable energy as a response to the risks of climate change and peak fossil fuel energy production. That makes me automatically biased. I view my research subject through the prism of hope. But I would contend that this is a perfectly valid belief, as I already know some of what is possible. I’m not starting from a foundational blank slate – many Renewable Gas processes are already in use throughout industry and the energy sector. The fascinating part is watching these functions coalesce into a coherent alternative to the mining of fossil fuels. For the internal industry energy production conversation is changing its track, its tune.

For a while now, “alternative” energy has been a minor vibration, a harmonic, accentuating the fossil fuel melody. As soon as the mid-noughties economic difficulties began to bite, greenwash activities were ditched, as oil and gas companies resorted to their core business. But the “green shoots” of green energy are still there, and every now and then, it is possible to see them poking up above the oilspill-desecrated soil. My role is to count blades and project bushes. Therefore my research is interpretivist or constructivist, although it is documenting positivist engineering progress. That’s quite hard for me to agree with, even though I reasoned it myself. I can still resist being labelled “post-positivist”, though, because I’m still interpreting reality not relativisms.

So now, on from research paradigm to research methodologies. I was trained to be an experimentalist scientist, so this is a departure for me. In this case, I am not going to seek to make a physical contribution to the field by being actively involved as an engineer in a research programme, partly because from what I’ve read so far, most of the potential is already documented and scoped.

I am going to use sociological methods, combining observation and rapportage, to and from various organisations through various media. Since I am involved in the narrative through my interactions with others, and I influence the outcomes of my research, this is partly auto-narrative, autoethnographic, ethnographic. An apt form for the research documentation is a weblog, as it is a longitudinal study, so discrete reports at time intervals are appropriate. Social media will be useful for joining the research to a potential audience, and Twitter has the kind of immediacy I prefer.

My observation will therefore be akin to journalism – engineering journalism, where the term “engineering” covers both technological and sociological aspects of change. A kind of energy futures “travelogue”, an observer of an emerging reality.

My research methods will include reading the science and interacting with engineers. I hope to do a study trip (or two) as a way of embedding myself into the new energy sector, with the explicit intention of ensuring I am not purely a commentator-observer. My research documentation will include a slow collation of my sources and references – a literature review that evolves over time.

My personal contribution will be slight, but hopefully set archaic and inefficient proposals for energy development based on “traditional” answers (such as nuclear power, “unconventional” fossil fuel production and Carbon Capture and Storage for coal) in high relief.

My research choices as they currently stand :-

1. I do not think I want to join an academic group.

2. I do not think I want to work for an energy engineering company.

3. I do not want to claim a discovery in an experimental sense. Indeed, I do not need to, as I am documenting discoveries and experiments.

4. I want to be clear about my bias towards promoting 100% renewable energy, as a desirable ambition, in response to the risks posed by climate change and peak fossil fuel production.

5. I need to admit that my research may influence outcomes, and so is applied rather than basic (Roll-Hansen, 2009).

References

OECD, 2002. “Proposed Standard Practice for Surveys on Research and Experimental Development”, Frascati Manual :-
https://browse.oecdbookshop.org/oecd/pdfs/free/9202081e.pdf

Roll-Hansen, 2009. “Why the distinction between basic (theoretical) and applied (practical) research is important in the politics of science”, Nils Roll-Hansen, Centre for the Philosophy of Natural and Social Science Contingency and Dissent in Science, Technical Report 04/09 :-
https://www2.lse.ac.uk/CPNSS/projects/CoreResearchProjects/ContingencyDissentInScience/DP/DPRoll-HansenOnline0409.pdf

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Energy Change : Germany’s Energiewende #1

I recently attended an event entitled “The Energiewende: A close look at Germany’s renewable energy revolution”. This was hosted by PRASEG, the Associate UK Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group, and supported by the German Embassy, and held at the Boothroyd Room of Portcullis House, Westminster, 6th March 2013 between 2pm and 4pm.

The main speakers were Rainer Baake, State Secretary at the Federal Environment Ministry in Germany between 1998 and 2005, and Andreas Kramer, Director and CEO of the Ecologic Institute in Berlin – a well-regarded think tank. Alan Whitehead MP also gave comments, and Simon Hughes MP also attended and shared some points.

Tom Heap, the well-known Radio 4 presenter, was on hand to chair.

What follows is not verbatim, but is transcribed from scribbled notes.

[Tom Heap] “Germany is a live pilot experiment [in transitioning out of fossil fuels to renewable energy]. That’s not meant to be patronising. [Whilst recording a programme there before Christmas I was] hearing comments from right-of-centre government I wouldn’t hear in the UK. On wind turbines, German and British conservatives are poles apart. There wind power is not seen as an imposition. We heard “our energy, our village”. The technologies are similar, but the politics are different…”

[Rainer Baake] “In Germany, energy policy holds past and future challenges. In June 2011, we ended a long and very controversial debate on energy policy. We ended up with very ambitious goals. The almost unanimous vote was historical. It was almost impossible to believe. We had always had a very diverse debate since Chernobyl [the catastrophic nuclear power accident in Ukraine in 1986 that necessitated the total evacuation of the city of Pripyat and the surrounding districts]. With the major change in government in 2008, with a Green and Social Democrat [SPD https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/where-do-they-stand-a-quick-guide-to-germany-s-political-parties-a-651388.html ] majority, we got Phase 1, then the Renewable Energy Act (EEG, Erneuerbare-Energien-Gesetz https://www.bmu.de/en/service/publications/downloads/details/artikel/renewable-energy-sources-act-eeg-2009/) – which was also controversial at that time.”

“[We] created the Feed-In Tariff [FIT] – an incredible success story. Over roughly ten years, the Renewable Energy share stands at 25% of power generation as of today. And of that 25%, 50% of that is in the hands of private people and farmers. This is why it has received political support. The owners of the windmills, biomass generators […] are not only producers, they are also voters. At the start, there was opposition from Conservatives [German conservative right-of-centre politicians – CDU https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/where-do-they-stand-a-quick-guide-to-germany-s-political-parties-a-651388.html], but companies in their own constituencies said, “We can earn money with this” […] Renewable Energy receives very wide support. This is very different from nuclear power.”

“The Conservatives and Liberals [German free market neoliberal politicians – FDP https://www.spiegel.de/international/germany/where-do-they-stand-a-quick-guide-to-germany-s-political-parties-a-651388.html ] promised that after the 2009 elections if the coalition won there would be lifetime extensions [on existing nuclear reactors – allowing them to continue operating after their originally designed safe lives]. But they didn’t have a plan ready. They made [announcements] in December 2010 [extending reactor lives out to 2045 https://www.world-nuclear-news.org/IT-German_plant_life_extension_law_passed-2911107.html ] but this was against the public [opinion]. It only lasted for a few weeks, because Fukushima happened [ https://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-03-14/germany-suspends-plan-to-extend-life-of-nuclear-power-plants-merkel-says.html ]. Our Government realised what it meant for their own policy. They were able to explain Chernobyl [the meltdown accident at Pripyat in the Ukraine in 1986] as Communist [regime] mismanagement, but the meltdown of three reactors at Fukushima, in a technologically advance country…the Government immediately changed position, and it led to a very big [wide] consensus. In June 2011, the opposition and the Government [decided for] Renewable Energy.”

“In the original [Energiewende] plan of 2000, phaseout of nuclear was to be by 2022, and in the next decades, the fossil generators would convert to Renewable Energy. When created the FIT in 2000 – all Renewable Energy [technologies] had the same starting line [the same levels of subsidy]. The FIT is not a permanent subsidy – it helps these technologies to be introduced to markets. The winners are clearly wind power and solar power – others maybe [remain] too expensive. Biomass is now reaching a sustainability limit [not enough feedstocks for expansion]. It is not going to be posssible to increase biomass or hydropower much over today. Geothermal energy – never came up. Wind and solar power prices decreased dramatically. We have enough of that. The features – have to deal with […] weather-dependent and solar power is not flexible to demand. Second – also very variable. Very capital-intensive [for investment phase] but marginal costs [of operation] are negligible. One you’ve invested, put all the money you need on the table, there are no costs over the following decades.”

“These features [of Renewable Energies] mean it is going to be a complete change in energy systems over the next decades. 25% of demand – happened much faster than anticipated in 2000. The first 25% is one story. The next 25% is another story. 25% is easy to integrate. Very robust. The next 25% – as you can imagine – 50% of the system – this is the real challenge of the Energiewende – synchronising production of solar and wind with demand of customers. How to balance demand and supply ? How to minimise the costs [of that] – [reduce] in a free European Union energy market ? There’s the technology – and on the other hand, the market. On the technology side need much more flexible supply. With FIT […] Baseload is not a word that describes supply – it describes demand. With marginal costs of zero, they [utilising power from renewable energies] come first – they are pushing traditional fossil fuels out of baseload. The operating hours of traditional baseload generators are decreasing. [We will need] not only adjustments to demand, but also the variable sources. Ten years ahead we will not have any baseload. We will still need 6,000 hours a year generators. They’re there – that’s gas. [We also need] a market design to enable [this].”

“Second – we need [new/larger] transmission lines. That’s something that really needs to happen. The bigger [wider] the area you connect, the bigger [better, more even] the balance. Not only talking about Germany – also Denmark, the Netherlands, Scandinavia – the better we’re connected, the better to balance. [The history of] the market in almost all countries – generators [power stations] were built under state regulation on the basis of monopolies. After the deregulation in the 1990s, the [power sector changed to work] on the basis of least operating costs. [The power was supplied] always by those generators of least operation cost – makes sense. All these have marginal costs – that is, fuel. When you introduce lots of Renewable Energy with a marginal cost of zero, the prices on the wholesale market have come down significantly, from 95 to 50 Euro per MWh. This has been caused not only by Renewable Energy – but it has been mainly Renewable Energy – pushing out the more expensive generators.”

“This creates a problem, as you need backup capacity – when the sun isn’t shining and the wind isn’t blowing. There have been arguments/debates about the capacity market we need – an intelligent system – not very expensive – to make sure to backup when wind and solar are not available. We also need a system to support the Energiewende over the next decades. FIT was good for 15 years, but answers of the past are not necessarily correct for the future. It is always argued very strongly that for Germany this is not to renationalise energy policy. This Energiewende is much less costly if we do it with our neighbours. It’s too controversial at the European Union [EU] – but [we are/having] encouraging discussions with neighbouring countries – to the benefit of everybody – to put into reality the EU energy market. We need flexibility of generators, but also flexibility of demand side. [We have asked the German] States [Länder] – are you able to shift your peak [demand] by six hours – a real part of the solution. [We need to] move away from switch [on] and forget. [To those detractors of the Energiewende] if look at the opposition [views] there is no reasonable balance of money in and out. One day we will be using all our renewable electricity generation – for example, using electricity for transport, but for now [we need to export].”

…TO BE CONTINUED

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New Nuclear : Credibility Strained

As rumours and genuine information leak from central sources about the policy instruments and fiscal measures that will be signed into the United Kingdom’s Energy Bill, the subsidy support likely to be made available to new nuclear power is really straining credibility from my point of view. I am even more on the “incredulous” end of the spectrum of faith in the UK Government’s Energy Policy than I ever was before.

The national demand for electrical power is pretty constant, with annual variations of only a few percent. It was therefore easy to project that there could be a “power cliff” when supply would be curtailed from coal-fired generation under European legislation :-

https://www.gov.uk/government/organisations/department-of-energy-climate-change/series/energy-trends

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21501878
https://www.guardian.co.uk/money/2013/feb/19/ofgem-higher-household-energy-bills
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9878281/Ofgem-boss-warns-of-higher-energy-prices-in-supply-roller-coaster.html
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9878281/Ofgem-boss-warns-of-higher-energy-prices-in-supply-roller-coaster.html
https://metro.co.uk/2013/02/19/consumers-face-higher-energy-bills-as-the-uk-becomes-more-reliant-on-gas-imports-3503130/
https://www.gov.uk/government/news/decc-statement-on-alistair-buchanan-s-comments-on-energy-security-and-rising-gas-prices

The pat answer to how we should “Keep the Lights On” has been to wave the new nuclear fission reactor card. Look ! Shiny new toys. Keep us in power for yonks ! And hidden a little behind this fan of aces and jokers, a get-out-of-jail free card from the Coal monopoly – Carbon Capture and Storage or CCS. Buy into this, and we could have hundreds more years of clean power from coal, by pumping nasty carbon dioxide under the sea bed.

Now, here’s where the answers are just plain wrong : new nuclear power cannot be brought into the National Grid before the early 2020s at the very earliest. And options for CCS are still in the balance, being weighed and vetted, and very unlikely to clean up much of the black stuff until well past 2025.

When put through my best onboard guesstimiser, I came up with the above little graph in answer to the question : how soon can the UK build new power generation ? Since our “energy cliff” is likely to be in one of the winters of 2015 or 2016, and we’re not sure other countries we import from will have spare capacity, we have little option but to increase Natural Gas-fired power generation and go hell-for-leather with the wind and solar power deployment.

So no – it’s of no use promising to pay the new nuclear reactor bearer the sum of 40 or more years of subsidy in the form of guaranteed price for power under the scheme known as Contracts for Difference – they still won’t be delivering anything to cope with the “power drain” of the next few years. If this is written into the Electricity Market Reform, we could justifiably say this would destroy competition, and destroy any market, too, and be “central planning” by any other name – this level of subsidy is not exactly “technology-neutral” !

https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2013/feb/19/edf-40-year-contract-nuclear-plant
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/uknews/9879257/Government-drawing-up-ludicrous-40-year-contracts-to-persuade-power-companies-to-go-nuclear.html

And offering the so-called Capacity Mechanism – a kind of top-up payment to keep old nuclear reactors running, warts and all – when really they should be decommissioned as they are reaching the end of their safe lives, is not a good option, in my book.

Offering the Capacity Mechanism to those who build new gas-fired power plant does make sense, however. If offshore wind power continues with its current trajectory and hits the big time in the next few years, and people want the cheap wind power instead of the gas, and the gas stations will be feeling they can’t run all the time, then the Capacity Mechanism will be vital to make sure the gas plant does get built to back up the wind power, and stays available to use on cold, still nights in February.

https://www.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/66039/7103-energy-bill-capacity-market-impact-assessment.pdf
https://gastopowerjournal.com/regulationapolicy/item/1405-eurelectric-discards-eu-wide-capacity-mechanism-as-premature
https://www.eaem.co.uk/news/doubts-gas-strategy-will-lead-new-plants

Oh, people may complain about the idea of new “unabated” gas power plants, and insist they should be fitted with carbon capture, but new gas plants won’t run all the time in future, because renewable electricity generation will be cheaper, so forcing gas plant owners to pay for CCS seems like overkill to me. And, anyway, we will be decarbonising the gas supply, as we develop supplies of Renewable Gas.

I say forget the nuclear option – build the gas !

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Gas Strategy “Dangerous Gamble”

I had a most refreshing evening at Portcullis House in Westminster this evening – apart from the fact that the Macmillan Room was overheated, so you couldn’t possibly deduce that energy conservation is intended to be part of the UK Government’s strategy, making an example with the public sector.

Tonight was the launch of the Greenpeace and WWF-UK report “A Study into the Economics of Gas and Offshore Wind“, which was commissioned from Cambridge Econometrics.

Professor Paul Ekins got up to speak and actually had the gall to declare the Government’s “Gas Strategy” to be a “dangerous gamble”. It was at this point that I took heart again – there are still some sane, rational people in the “national energy conversation”, even though Ekins did admit that he wasn’t sure that the “Gas Strategy” was an actual thing. Oh, but it is. All eighty pages of it.

Today was not the first time Professor Paul Ekins called out the Government on this, apparently, although I didn’t have a recollection of seeing the the mention in New Scientist before today.

Other highlights of the evening were provided by Laura Sandys MP naming her political opposition Alan Whitehead MP as the leader of a “parliamentary roadshow” on Energy and Climate Change, and questioning the use of the term “energy efficiency”. “It’s energy waste, guys”, she corrected and said we should be using that term instead of the “effete word efficiency”, and encouraged the energy waste prevention industry to get the rest of us engaged with their products.

A chap from Scottish and Southern Energy (SSE) – I think it might have been Kevin MacLean – got up during questions from the floor, and almost begged for a long-term framework – a plan for renewable energy – a “binding framework” to encourage investment and “get costs down”.

It was pointed out during the evening, that, logically enough, that policy is important to energy futures, “if you have more certainty, you get more investment”. And there was encouragement to get Government Departments to think about this more. Yes, some subsidies and other forms of support are going to be needed to get the renewable energy revolution kickstarted, but “if [we] get benefits – isn’t that a price worth paying ?” The benefits outlined included potential for some small growth in the economy, around about 0.8% GDP, but good prospects for high value employment in depressed coastal towns where much of the offshore wind industry will host engineers, both for construction and ongoing operations and maintenance.

Laura Sandys MP was ashamed to say that she may no longer be able to claim she has the two largest offshore wind farms in her constituency – as progress is being made elsewhere.

Sarah Merrick from Vestas, the wind power engineering firm, emphasised that the economics of wind power stacks up and that it’s important to communicate this – despite the current dismissive media agenda – where she said it is important to defend the industry against certain media claims.

Lord Alan Haworth brought up the inevitable question of renewable energy intermittency – “days of dead calm and dark nights”. He raised the statistic that weather systems in Europe can cover 1,500 kilometres, so if wind power is down in the UK, it’s going to be down elsewhere in the EU electricity networks – the countries we have interconnectors with. What he didn’t elaborate on was this – just as the UK is beefing (and I don’t mean “up to 100% horsing about”) up its connections with the European electricity networks, so too, Europe as a whole is beginning to reach out with its networks to satellite countries. What that could mean is that even if wind-powered electrons in the UK take a dive, electrons could still appear in the power network from very far afield, and shunt power to the UK.

The speaker from the Crown Estate said that it was “sensible” to push for a good quantity of wind power – and that the report was a compelling argument. He regretted that it could not be guaranteed that the wind power-ed economy would necessarily have more of its supply chain in the UK – as various bodies have to comply with EU trade rules – but that there was a commitment in one part of the industry to 50% indigenous resourcing and employment (if I noted that down correctly).

Long-term policy clarity was espoused. Disappointment was expressed in the Coalition Government’s flip-flop about gas – emphasising the development of gas-powered electricity generation at the expense of projecting high levels of renewables (65%, says the report, is perfectly feasible) – and that it gave mixed messages – which weren’t helping investment decisions. Sarah Merrick repeated the E.On line that UK electricity should be “balanced by gas, not based on gas”, although she didn’t explain that they weren’t necessarily talking about wind power being the mainstay of new generation capacity.

It was generally agreed that David Cameron should lead and adopt the EU 2030 renewable energy targets – to enable billions of new confidence in the UK energy sector.

Not having a strong lead on renewable energy and energy waste reduction would be an “abdication of responsibility on the part of the policy-creating machine”. And, “even if shale gas does materialise”, it would not provide much stimulus.

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A Referendum for Energy

As I dodged the perfunctory little spots of snow yesterday, on my way down to Highbury and Islington underground train station, I passed a man who appeared to have jerky muscle control attempting to punch numbers on the keypad of a cash machine in the wall. He was missing, but he was grinning. A personal joke, perhaps. The only way he could get his money out of the bank to buy a pint of milk and a sliced loaf for his tea was to accurately tap his PIN number. But he wasn’t certain his body would let him. I threw him an enquiring glance, but he seemed too involved in trying to get control of his arms and legs to think of accepting help.

This, I felt, was a metaphor for the state of energy policy and planning in the United Kingdom – everybody in the industry and public sector has focus, but nobody appears to have much in the way of overall control – or even, sometimes, direction. I attended two meetings today setting out to address very different parts of the energy agenda : the social provision of energy services to the fuel-poor, and the impact that administrative devolution may have on reaching Britain’s Renewable Energy targets.

At St Luke’s Centre in Central Street in Islington, I heard from the SHINE team on the progress they are making in providing integrated social interventions to improve the quality of life for those who suffer fuel poverty in winter, where they need to spend more than 10% of their income on energy, and are vulnerable to extreme temperatures in both summer heatwaves and winter cold snaps. The Seasonal Health Interventions Network was winning a Community Footprint award from the National Energy Action charity for success in their ability to reach at-risk people through referrals for a basket of social needs, including fuel poverty. It was pointed out that people who struggle to pay energy bills are more likely to suffer a range of poverty problems, and that by linking up the social services and other agencies, one referral could lead to multiple problem-solving.

In an economy that is suffering signs of contraction, and with austerity measures being imposed, and increasing unemployment, it is clear that social services are being stretched, and yet need is still great, and statutory responsibility for handling poverty is still mostly a publicly-funded matter. By offering a “one-stop shop”, SHINE is able to offer people a range of energy conservation and efficiency services alongside fire safety and benefits checks and other help to make sure those in need are protected at home and get what they are entitled to. With 1 in 5 households meeting the fuel poverty criteria, there is clearly a lot of work to do. Hackney and Islington feel that the SHINE model could be useful to other London Boroughs, particularly as the Local Authority borders are porous.

We had a presentation on the Cold Weather Plan from Carl Petrokovsky working for the Department of Health, explaining how national action on cold weather planning is being organised, using Met Office weather forecasts to generate appropriate alert levels, in a similar way to heatwave alerts in summer – warnings that I understand could become much more important in future owing to the possible range of outcomes from climate change.

By way of some explanation – more global warming could mean significant warming for the UK. More UK warming could mean longer and, or, more frequent heated periods in summer weather, perhaps with higher temperatures. More UK warming could also mean more disturbances in an effect known as “blocking” where weather systems lock into place, in any season, potentially pinning the UK under a very hot or very cold mass of air for weeks on end. In addition, more UK warming could mean more precipitation – which would mean more rain in summer and more snow in winter.

Essentially, extremes in weather are public health issues, and particularly in winter, more people are likely to suffer hospitalisation from the extreme cold, or falls, or poor air quality from boiler fumes – and maybe end up in residential care. Much of this expensive change of life is preventable, as are many of the excess winter deaths due to cold. The risks of increasing severity in adverse conditions due to climate change are appropriately dealt with by addressing the waste of energy at home – targeting social goals can in effect contribute to meeting wider adaptational goals in overall energy consumption.

If the UK were to be treated as a single system, and the exports and imports of the most significant value analysed, the increasing net import of energy – the yawning gap in the balance of trade – would be seen in its true light – the country is becoming impoverished. Domestic, indigenously produced sources of energy urgently need to be developed. Policy instruments and measured designed to reinvigorate oil and gas exploration in the North Sea and over the whole UKCS – UK Continental Shelf – are not showing signs of improving production significantly. European-level policy on biofuels did not revolutionise European agriculture as regards energy cropping – although it did contribute to decimating Indonesian and Malaysian rainforest. The obvious logical end point of this kind of thought process is that we need vast amounts of new Renewable Energy to retain a functioning economy, given global financial, and therefore, trade capacity, weakness.

Many groups, both with the remit for public service and private enterprise oppose the deployment of wind and solar power, and even energy conservation measures such as building wall cladding. Commentators with access to major media platforms spread disinformation about the ability of Renewable Energy technologies to add value. In England, in particular, debates rage, and many hurdles are encountered. Yet within the United Kingdom as a whole, there are real indicators of progressive change, particularly in Scotland and Wales.

I picked up the threads of some of these advances by attending a PRASEG meeting on “Delivering Renewable Energy Under Devolution”, held at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in Westminster, London; a tour to back up the launch of a new academic report that analyses performance of the devolved administrations and their counterpart in the English Government in Westminster. The conclusions pointed to something that I think could be very useful – if Scotland takes the referendum decision for independence, and continues to show strong leadership and business and community engagement in Renewable Energy deployment, the original UK Renewable Energy targets could be surpassed.

I ended the afternoon exchanging some perceptions with an academic from Northern Ireland. We shared that Eire and Northern Ireland could become virtually energy-independent – what with the Renewable Electricity it is possible to generate on the West Coast, and the Renewable Gas it is possible to produce from the island’s grass (amongst other things). We also discussed the tendency of England to suck energy out of its neighbour territories. I suggested that England had appropriated Scottish hydrocarbon resources, literally draining the Scottish North Sea dry of fossil fuels in exchange for token payments to the Western Isles, and suchlike. If Scotland leads on Renewable Energy and becomes independent, I suggested, the country could finally make back the wealth it lost to England. We also shared our views about the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland being asked to wire all their new Renewable Electricity to England, an announcement that has been waiting to happen for some time. England could also bleed Wales of green power with the same lines being installed to import green juice from across the Irish Sea.

I doubt that politics will completely nix progress on Renewable Energy deployment – the economics are rapidly becoming clear that clean, green power and gas are essential for the future. However, I would suggest we could expect some turbulence in the political sphere, as the English have to learn the hard way that they have a responsibility to rapidly increase their production of low carbon energy.

Asking the English if they want to break ties with the European Union, as David Cameron has suggested with this week’s news on a Referendum, is the most unworkable idea, I think. England, and in fact, all the individual countries of the United Kingdom, need close participation in Europe, to join in with the development of new European energy networks, in order to overcome the risks of economic collapse. It may happen that Scotland, and perhaps Wales, even, separate themselves from any increasing English isolation and join the great pan-Europe energy projects in their own right. Their economies may stabilise and improve, while the fortunes of England may tumble, as those with decision-making powers, crony influence and web logs in the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail, resist the net benefits of the low carbon energy revolution.

[ Many thanks to Simon and all at the Unity Kitchen at St Luke’s Centre, and the handsomely reviving Unity Latte, and a big hi to all the lunching ladies and gents with whom I shared opinions on the chunkiness of the soup of the day and the correct identification of the vegetables in it. ]

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #1 : Approached by short woman with a notebook in Parliament Square, pointing out to me a handwritten list that included the line “Big Ben”. I pointed at the clock tower and started to explain. The titchy tourist apologised for non-comprehension by saying, “French”, so then I explained the feature attraction to her in French, which I think quite surprised her. We are all European.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #2 : Spoke with an Austrian academic by the fire for coffee at IMechE, One Birdcage Walk, about the odd attitudes as regards gun ownership in the United States, and the American tendency to collective, cohort behaviour. I suggested that this tendency could be useful, as the levels of progressive political thinking, for instance about drone warfare, could put an end to the practice. When aerial bombardment was first conducted, it should have been challenged in law at that point. We are all Europeans.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #3 : Met a very creative Belgian from Gent, living in London. We are all European.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #4 : We Europeans, we are all so civilised. We think that we need to heat venues for meetings, so that people feel comfortable. Levels of comfort are different for different people, but the lack of informed agreement means that the default setting for temperature always ends up being too high. The St Luke’s Centre meeting room was at roughly 23.5 degrees C when I arrived, and roughly 25 degrees C with all the visitors in the room. I shared with a co-attendee that my personal maximum operating temperature is around 19 degrees C. She thought that was fine for night-time. The IMechE venue on the 2nd floor was roughly 19 – 20 degrees C, but the basement was roughly 24 degrees C. Since one degree Celsius of temperature reduction can knock about 10% of the winter heating bill, why are public meetings about energy not more conscious of adjusting their surroundings ?

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Boris’ Entirely Accurate Assessment

Image Credit : jgspics

It’s lucky for Londoners that we have a Mayor of the intellectual stature of Boris Johnson. Not only is he a fashion icon, a promotor of safe cycling, and a total sex god, especially dangling from high wires at Olympic Stadia wearing a rumpled suit, but he’s also a sheer genius on science. He’s as learned as the best taxi chauffeur in the City’s Square Mile, and not only that, he’s studied Earth Sciences in depth, and has so much wisdom from his knowledge, that he feels justified in challenging an entire pantheon of climatologists.

Here he is writing philanthropically, no doubt, for our general edification, in the Daily Telegraph online,

“…I am sitting here staring through the window at the flowerpot and the bashed-up barbecue, and I am starting to think this series of winters is not a coincidence. The snow on the flowerpot, since I have been staring, has got about an inch thicker. The barbecue is all but invisible. By my calculations, this is now the fifth year in a row that we have had an unusual amount of snow; and by unusual I mean snow of a kind that I don’t remember from my childhood: snow that comes one day, and then sticks around for a couple of days, followed by more. I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists. But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language…”

I must defer to the man – his memory is incredibly accurate, and the conclusions based on his impressions entirely valid. It cannot be true that in the winter of 1967-1968, for example, when he was a little brat, that snow was so deep and so treacherous in parts of London that cars could not drive up slopes steeper than about 25 degrees; and that the snow lasted for several weeks and caused major infrastructure disruption, especially when there was a second phase of snowfall. It cannot be true that winters in the UK in the late 1970s and early 1980s were really quite bad, because Boris cannot recall them, despite being nearly aged 50, unless of course, he grew up in another, more tropical part of the world.

As his claim to be an “empiricist” is backed up by his winter recollections, we can trust what he says about Piers Corbyn, obviously. Piers Corbyn, alone among his generation, perhaps, is reported by BoJo to believe that “global temperature depends not on concentrations of CO2 but on the mood of our celestial orb.” And he has a fascinating, entirely convincing explanation for recent hard winters, “When the Sun has plenty of sunspots, he bathes the Earth in abundant rays. When the solar acne diminishes, it seems that the Earth gets colder. No one contests that when the planet palpably cooled from 1645 to 1715 – the Maunder minimum, which saw the freezing of the Thames – there was a diminution of solar activity. The same point is made about the so-called Dalton minimum, from 1790 to 1830. And it is the view of Piers Corbyn that we are now seeing exactly the same phenomenon today.”

It’s all so simple, really, and we have to thank Piers Corbyn, shake his hand warmly, and thump him on the back to express our deep gratitude for explaining that history is repeating itself, all over again. Nothing, of course, has changed in the Earth’s atmosphere, so its composition couldn’t be accentuating the Greenhouse Effect, whereby minute amounts of Greenhouse Gases keep the surface of the planet above the 18 or 19 degrees Celsius below freezing point it would be otherwise.

So of course, just as he is right about solar activity being the primary driver of global temperatures today, just as it was clearly the only significant driver in the past, Piers Corbyn must be entirely correct about his predictions of future cooling, especially because he’s being quoted by Borish Johnson, on the website of a very well-read newspaper, no less, “We are in for a prolonged cold period. Indeed, we could have 30 years of general cooling.”

The Daily Telegraph have hit on a superb way of guaranteeing web hits. The strategy of setting a cool cat amongst the warming pigeons is even acknowledged by Mr Johnson himself, “all those scientists and environmentalists who will go wild with indignation on the publication of this article”.

But it appears that despite this clownish, jokey, provocative stance, Boris might actually believe there is something in Piers Corbyn’s analysis : “I am speaking only as a layman [a “layman” with a platform in a national newspaper, which pay him to write this stuff] who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government [just a “layman” with some old university pals in the Cabinet] to start taking seriously the possibility – however remote – that Corbyn is right. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole.”

BoJo then dives off the psychological deep-end, “Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age. But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did five years ago [oh yes, it does]. I look at the snowy waste outside, and I have an open mind.” Open minded ? About things that have been established as reality ? I suppose we should stay open minded about the entire field of Chemistry or Physics, then ? Or how about the Theory of Gravity ? Was Boris being open minded about gravity when he took to the harness and wire during London 2012 ?

Am I giving “oxygen” to the madness of the global warming deniers by writing about this truly ill-informed opinion from Boris Johnson ? The media are already giving more than enough oxygen to people in high office with quaint, outdated views. Should I be silent as major newspapers continue to pour forth ineptitude ?

Am I “scoring an own goal” by pointing out his piece is a travesty of the scientific facts ? No, I am pointing out that his article contains invalid scientific opinion.

When I first read this piece, I thought it was a parody, but now I’m not so sure. It appears to be a deliberate attempt to skew the confidence of other people – confidence in the main body of science, and the decades of patient work by people with thousands of data sets of measurements from the natural world, not just poor memories of winters past.

Categories
Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Big Society Burning Money Carbon Army Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Rationing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Climate Damages Contraction & Convergence Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life National Power Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Solution City Technological Sideshow The Power of Intention The War on Error Ungreen Development Vain Hope Western Hedge

Futureproof Renewable Sustainable Energy #3

PRASEG Annual Conference 2012
https://www.praseg.org.uk/save-the-date-praseg-annual-conference/
“After EMR: What future for renewable and sustainable energy?”
31st October 2012
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster
Twitter hashtag : #PRASEG12

Addendum to Part 1 and Part 2

Dr Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute has contributed a summary of the questions that he raised at the PRASEG Annual Conference on Wednesday 31st October 2012, together with more background detail, and I am pleased to add this to the record of the day, and wish him a happy 82nd year !


PRASEG Conference 31 October 2012

Questions raised by Dr. Mayer Hillman (Policy Studies Institute) in the following sessions

The Future of Renewable and Sustainable Energy: Panel Session

I can only assume from the statements of each of the panellists of this session that their point of departure is that consumers have an inalienable right to engage in as much energy-intensive activity as they wish. Thereafter, it is the Government’s responsibility to aim to meet as much of the consequent demand as possible, subject only to doing so in the most cost-effective and least environmentally-damaging ways possible.

However as Laura Sandys pointed out in her introduction, “policy must reflect the realities of the world we live in”. The most fundamental of these realities is that the planet’s atmosphere only has a finite capacity to safely absorb further greenhouse gas emissions. Surely, that must be the point of departure for policy if we are to ensure a long-term future for life on earth. That future can only be assured by the adoption of zero-carbon lifestyles as soon as conceivably possible. Simply aiming to increase the contribution of the renewables and of the efficiency with which fossil fuels are used is clearly bound to prove inadequate as the process of climate change is already irreversible.

Demand side policy: The missing element?: Panel Session

Given that the process of climate change cannot now be reversed, at best only slowed down by our actions, continued development of means of matching the predicted huge increase in energy demand whilst minimising its contribution to climate change is seen to be the logical way forward. However, any burning of fossil fuels adds to the already excessive concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The only solution now is the one advocated by the Global Commons Institute since 1996. The extent of GCI’s success, both national and international, is very apparent by looking at the Institute’s website https://www.gci.org.uk. Contraction and Convergence is the framework, that is the contraction of greenhouse gases to a safe level and their convergence to equal per capita shares across the world’s population.

Our chair for this session has been a supporter for several years. Why cannot the panellists see this to be the way ahead rather than taking small steps which, in aggregate, cannot conceivably prevent catastrophe in the longer term?

Keynote address by the Right Hon. Edward Davey, Secretary of State, DECC

The Secretary-of-State has just confirmed the fears that I expressed in the first session of this conference, namely that he sees it to be the Government’s responsibility, if not duty, to ensure that, if at all possible, the burgeoning growth in energy demand predicted for the future is met. To that end, he has just outlined stages of a strategy intended to enable comparisons to be made on “a level playing field” between different types of electricity generation as energy is increasingly likely to be supplied in the form of electricity. To do so, in his view, it is essential that a market price for the release of a tonne of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere is determined.

I have two great reservations about such a process. First, if the price is to cover all the costs incurred then, for instance, the real costs of large scale migration of vast populations fleeing the regions that will be rendered uninhabitable by climate change caused by the increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (with more than 100 years continuous impacts) would have to be included. I fail to see how that could be realistically established, let alone its moral implications being acceptable.

Second, we know that we have already passed the stage that would have allowed us to reverse the process of global climate change – just consider the melting of the Arctic ice cap. That market price for the tonne of CO2 emissions, insofar as it could be determined, would have to rise exponentially owing to the planet’s non-negotiable capacity to safely absorb further emissions. Yet the market requires a fixed price to enable decisions affecting the future to be made.


Categories
Assets not Liabilities Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Policy Warfare Political Nightmare

Futureproof Renewable Sustainable Energy #2

PRASEG Annual Conference 2012
https://www.praseg.org.uk/save-the-date-praseg-annual-conference/
“After EMR: What future for renewable and sustainable energy?”
31st October 2012
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster
Twitter hashtag : #PRASEG12

Continued from Part 1. Followed by Part 3.

PLEASE NOTE : The record is NOT verbatim and should not be treated as such. Check against delivery, I think they say in the trade. If I have scribbled incomprehensively or missed something, I have interpolated according to the spirit of the context. I am open to correction or challenge on my record of the event.

[Start of second session : “Demand side policy: The missing element ?]

[Caroline Lucas MP]

Demand side is often the poor cousin – it’s a shame to leave it to the end of the meeting.

[Andrew Warren, Association for the Conservation of Energy (ACE)]

Let’s run through the patronised world of energy efficiency. The Committee on Climate Change always emphasises two things are going to have to happen to de-carbonise the economy. First, new generation – but also, what do we do with consumption ? How do we deliver the society we want while consuming less ? Germany has a broadly similar aim – competitive energy, energy security. DECC projects a doubling, or even a tripling of electricity consumption. Germany tries to achieve exactly the same objectives, but consuming 25% to 40% less energy overall. What have we been doing in the UK ? Passing EU Directives, in particular, the recent Energy Efficiency Directive. This is interesting – we have never had targets on energy efficiency before. Energy efficiency is moderately politically uncontroversial – apart from some of the things put forward in connect with the work of the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) over the Building Regulations. It is key that new build should follow the new standards, and it is also key that when improving existing buildings, that the new standards be used. The Guardian last Saturday carried a front page explaining that CLG would look *again* at Building Regulations [ https://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/oct/26/government-building-standards-review-regulation https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/31/dangers-bonfire-building-regulations ]. The original Government consultation concluded in March 2011 – but there has been no conclusions or report since then. Unfortunately, we need those conclusions by October 2012 in order to maintain progress on the agreed time schedule. What do we see from CLG ? A “conservatory tax”. There are problems in DECC on issues like Fuel Poverty. There are 5 million people in the UK in fuel poverty, and the only Government-funded programme to address this will be terminated in March 2013. Even though the funding for the programme was cut by two thirds last year, it didn’t manage to spend all its money. Perhaps there will be measures in the EMR to impact energy efficiency ? We need to modify the Capacity Mechanism [of the EMR] so that we can incorporate demand side into that. Parallel to the work on the Energy Bill, there is the Energy Bill Revolution, outside Parliament, which argues that if we are start increasing the cost of energy through policy and measures such as the EMR and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) modifications, then those funds ought to come back to consumers – this happens in Germany. There is some good news – this year we have at last got a strategic body which will deal with the deployment of energy efficiency [the Energy Efficiency Deployment Office (EEDO)]. We do have the Green Deal and the smart meter rollout, but the key thing we’ve never had before is some entity in Government that speaks strategically on demand side.

[Peter Boyd, Expert Chair, Energy Efficiency Deployment Office (EEDO)/Carbon War Room]

I work one day per week for EEDO. My “day job” is with the Carbon War Room where we’re looking at the left hand side of the McKinsey MACC cost curves globally. [The McKinsey & Company Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves show on the left hand side where carbon savings are cost-negative and so produce payback : https://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/sustainability/cost%20curve%20pdfs/impactfinancialcrisiscarboneconomicsghgcostcurvev21.ashx ] We work on marine shipping […] This is right in the wheelhouse of what we are talking about today. A strategy on energy efficiency has to be linked to carbon targets. For example, the world economy currently produces 768 grammes of Carbon for each dollar of GDP. To get to sustainable levels of emissions [the two degrees Celsius UNFCCC target], that figure has to drop to 6 gC/$GDP. This is a complete pivot for the world economy. If we don’t address energy efficiency, where there are savings, are jobs, are growth. The role of the EEDO is explicitly aiming to fill in the joins in DECC and other departments. The key place where the economy and the environment can work together. There is a suite of announcements to come – to tackle market failure by market failure, new policies and measures are needed. We work with many departments and stakeholders. We held Summer briefings. If anyone wants to take part in the process, they’re welcome to speak with me. There is a recognition that demand response (demand side response (DSR) and energy demand response (EDR)) is underweight in the current Energy Bill. The team in DECC will look at how EDR can be put into EMR – which it is not covered by yet. We are coming out with a draft report on strategy in November 2012. Why is capital not flowing to get white vans out on the roads, rolling out insulation ? We are committed to working with practitioners. With the EMR it will be helpful to get behind it and not just throw rocks at it – it won’t help. I’m passionate about energy efficiency. The UK has a fantastic opportunity to be a world leader – a country with poor weather and leaky buildings.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

On the Capacity Mechanism, our role in the EMR is to be the delivery body, not the counterparty [to the various Capacity Mechanism and Contracts for Difference (CfD) contracting and strike price]. For the CfD, we will assess eligibility of projects. We will be running auctions for Demand Side Response (DSR) [aggregators of DSR such as Kiwi Power https://www.kiwipowered.com/ will be capable of taking part in these auctions]. We will take responsibility for energy security outcomes, and monitor costs and progress. We won’t be setting government policy. We will have access to sensitive information under the EMR, but we will not use that other than for EMR policy-based contracts. What does the Capacity Obligation (under contracts for the Capacity Mechanism) mean for EMR ? The idea of the Capacity Mechanism is to ensure that generators supply electricity when needed, or DSR can reduce demand “when needed” – for example on a cold Winter’s night. We need to redefine what “when needed” means to make sure the consumer is protected. There is such a potential for DSR to be really valuable. The National Grid is working with DECC to access DSR ahead of the Energy Bill. We are looking at consumer issues and continuing discussions with DSR providers – who would supply balancing to the grid as well as overall demand reduction. We host the National Grid forums nation-wide. We lead on developing the pipeline of projects needed for energy security – what products can be packaged, and what the lead time is for energy storage compared to DSR. We are looking at measurement and verification (M&V) criteria, so that we can all have confidence in DSR packages, and that M&V does not present a barrier to entry in the DSR market, and future-proofing. We’re not there yet. We’re still on the journey. This is a transitional scheme and we are pleased with our engagement with DSRs [DSR providers and aggregators] so far.

[Judith Ward, Director, Sustainability First (ex-National Grid)]

Sustainability First is a small environmental think tank running three year multi-project. We are looking for the scope for DR (demand reduction) and DR (demand response). We need to understand the economic values for customers and industry players. We have a strong practical focus – some of us are in the Low Carbon Forum/Fund and Ofgem and so on. All our papers are published as we go [https://www.sustainabilityfirst.org.uk/]. We aim to produce a “best picture” on how we use electricity in the country today. We’ve done a survey of large industrial customers and done household data research. Without a clear grasp of how consumers really use electricity, we are working with ill-informed risk. In understanding electricity usage the key is in re-engineering the consumer. Our fifth report is out next week. DSR is value today for sale into the UK balancing and “peak” market [peak load is a daily occurence, when a much higher demand for electricity lasts for somewhere between 30 minutes and a couple of hours, on a fairly regular daily basis. For the realtime example :
https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/Demand60.htm https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/Demand8.htm ] For the large customers on half-hourly distribution network, use the triad scheme to avoid charges [ https://www.flexitricity.com/core-services/triad-management ] Do we need yet more DSR – or is it premature at this point ? We need to understand schemes, how the services will supply flexible and peak avoidance. For the Capacity Mechanism, we need to introduce price information – however basic – so that customers know what they can earn by taking part [in DSR aggregator contracts]. Sources of flexible, suitable load are somewhat limited in the GB electricity system – but there is a surprising amount of peak electricity heating in commercial and some residential applications. But is there potential to shift it to overnight charging ? For retailers there is little incentive to promote DSR at scale. For the vast majority of the 29 million customers, the smart meter rollout is far away, but the settlement system adjustment is close at hand. The question is how to unlock smarter markets. System flexibility has to increase by the 2020s, so will need a more controllable load – and the system costs will go up. The search is on for new sources of flexibility in electricity load. At present there are incentives for electricity demand reduction – lower bills. But from the perspective of the electricity system, not all electricity demand reduction is useful. The time of day and season related. “Time of use” tariffs should promote electricity demand response, assigning value. The Green Deal and the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) should work in a more concerted way to deliver more demand response. Let’s be clear about the priorities on what to do first. Electricity has specific end uses – targetting those could make a difference today. Light efficiency schemes are not very glamorous…

[Questions]

[Tim Probert, New Power]

A question for National Grid. The existing balancing mechanisms – will they be part of the Capacity Mechanism ? Or will there be extra money available to balance grid load [under the new regime] ? The cash out settlement system charges will need reviewing – will more revenue be available for those with flexibility to help in balancing load ?

[Jenny Holland, Association for the Conservation of Energy (ACE)]

Is long-term demand reduction in your frame in the Capacity Mechanism ? It is simply not going to happen if the draft Energy Bill stay the same. In the United States, the market is “technology-neutral”, but only 10% comes from demand control. If DSR and energy efficiency are not targetted, they won’t happen. Generators will be able to bid in at a lower cost than DSR and energy efficiency – as they will get money for selling their electricity, *and* for the Capacity Mechanism. We are favouring modification of the Energy Bill with a merit order that favours low carbon and demand reduction, not letting gas wing its way though and swamp the Capacity Mechanism.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

Absolutely agree. We should not be locking ourselve into long-term contracts with the implication of demand in future that just won’t be there. To date our focus has been DSR, not long-term permanent cuts in electricity use.

[Peter Boyd, EEDO/Carbon War Room]

From the strategy side we are looking at options for permanent demand reduction [energy demand reduction (EDR)]. We can exploit international learnings. We’ve recognised that DSR is just a small part of the EDR landscape. This is a market failure – where poor information is preventing [development].

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Th National Grid are “implementing policy coming through”. There is a complete absence of anything in the draft Energy Bill on the demand side as opposed to addressing load balancing and peak demand issues. We should be trying to do what Germany and some American States are doing – allowing direct comparison. Which is cheaper – investing in new generation or investing in demand side reduction ? The cheapest way in almost all circumstances is to reduce the overall level of demand. It’s important that the National Grid flag up the implications of yesterday’s solution dominating.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

We are pleased to be involved with the DSR pilot scheme – demand avoidance is appreciated – especially when dealing daily peak demand.

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

Demand side and the capacity market – I get the sense that they are jelly-like because it is not clear what the Capacity Market is intended to do – either on supply or demand side. It’s hard to know if the DSR is is going to be locked out or not. Is it going to bring forward the merit cap ? In the capacity market, how much is likely to be backup generation [generation brought on at particular times when renewable energy is a a low], not turn-down [when plant is turned from full power output to standby] ? We need to look at the carbon emissions implications as well.

[Questionner]

Maybe we should look at it this way – “peak” equals “cap” and “demand” equals “energy” [to meet peak demand we need to cap it by demand reduction – temporary or long term, but to meet usual demand we need new and balanced generation]. Perhaps we should value these separately. There is clearly a market failure, there has been little supply increase. Could electricity distributors drive or aggregate demand response ? Perhaps they are better placed to do that ? There is more trust ?

[Mayer Hillman]

Are you sufficiently well-informed that climate change is now irreversible ? In the light of that, the only logical course of action is the Contraction and Convergence (C&C) global framework solution of equal per capita shares and rationing. In 20 years I haven’t seen any alternative. Does that not put that into perspective ? [The main argument of C&C is that there is no point in pricing or trading carbon unless there is a global cap enforced.]

[Matthew Parlour, “working for Lord Browne of Madingley”]

After half a century [of efforts on energy efficiency and energy savings] we have learned the consumers do not respond. An example is the difference in Americans being offered free energy demand measures. If the offer was on a website where they had to click to order something sent directly to them, they would not do it. However, if they were offered the same free product by telephone, most accepted it. How much have you thought through the rationality basics ? How do you see the balance of incentives offered to consumers and mandated changes ?

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Mayer, you remain the voice of my conscience. The ice caps are melting. There is less and less opportunity to stop exploitation of Arctic oil – one of the single most depressing things – climate change is exacerbating, leading to greate availability of what caused it in the first place. In ones darkest moments, I turn around and say, oh my God, what are we going to do ? But there was an 18th Century philosopher who posed the problem of a man who did nothing because he thought he could only do a little. I would like to respond to Lord Browne’s assistant – and interesting question regarding the irrational behaviour of consumers. I am impressed by your boss, he changed BP. He was the first head of an international oil and gas company to say climate change is real. He demanded from all his operational groups 20% more efficiency [making the company more efficient and sustainable into the long term in getting oil to market to be burned to emit carbon dioxide…] – a diktat from the top. The rest of the world needs to follow what your boss proposed. With his new venture Cuadrilla, that “Prince Charming” George Osborne was enthusiastic at an event about the prospects for shale gas. Every other energy minister says that reduction in consumption is required. I hoep your boss not only asks for generous tax breaks, but also asks for support for the other more cost-effective solution – reduction of energy demand.

[Peter Boyd, EEDO/Carbon War Room]

You vote in a democracy – not because your individual vote really counts [but because of the accumulated effect]. The single biggest failure of the Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) at Copenhagen was to demand a global treaty, a single collective political goal – but the white van still needs to be paid to turn up [in other words : the practical details of creating incentives to get insulation done is more important in the long run compared to aspirations on paper.] It is becoming clear that Mitigation of and Adaptation to climate change needs to be joined by a third actor – Suffering. And we can only choose one of two options. We can either do Mitigation and Suffer [the cost] or we can do Adaptation and Suffer [the climate change chaos]. Climate change singularity is one of the problems our brains are not wired to compute. We’re not structured to solve this. We can we do now ? Energy efficiency. While the policy guys are going for the right hand side of the McKinsey MACC curves, and how we’re going to finance that, we’re going for the left hand side. Most of the technologies that can really make a difference are already 20 years old. And it will be a better world that we’re in – not a hair shirt and sandals world. On rationality – if we make these really efficient buildings of our workplaces and then walk around in tee shirts [with the heating turned up] at home, then we haven’t solved the problem. When energy efficiency measures do go in, we can minimise irrationality. What’s the electricity distributor’s role in delivering energy efficiency ? This is the Government’s iPod moment. The array of policies to solve this will get more complex, just like the technology of the iPod was more complex than previously. But the interface of the iPod was clearer, more attractive, and so was usable and popular. A company needs to come round to your house, do an assessment and say “this is what will work for you”.

[Caroline Lucas MP]

I welcome the stress on urgency [in relation to Mayer Hillman’s question]

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

The issue about possible supply failure. There has been retail failure in the settlement system – complex and opaque – a broken link between how upstream costs are recovered (on a socialised basis) weakens their resolve to offer cheaper tariffs. I think that if we can fix some of the issues in the retail market […] I think it’s too early to decide if we want a DSO-led [distribution system operator in the electricity grid] world or a supplier-led world. If we want to do a community project, if will be very difficult to get incentives.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

Somebody needs to lead. Climate change. Can we do anything about it ? We have to try. We need a new electricity demand profile in the UK power market that flattens the evening peak load – then we could marketise this.

[Rebecca Aspin, powerPerfector]

Energy reduction should be 30% – 40% of our carbon targets. We are not really being energy efficiency focussed. We are disappointed that voltage (power) control is not in the SAP [the Standard Assessment Procedure for permitted technologies for consideration of Energy Bill subsidies]. It seems that policy cannot cope with electricity – they are more heat-focussed.

[Consumer Focus]

Regarding the problem with consumers being rational to accept energy reduction – the bigger problem is the implementation of DSR. There is not much money available to get consumers engaged in DSR. £90 per annum would be available – but not to consumers. Heat storage takes up a lot of space – how are we getting consumers to do this ?

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

The values in our eenrgy system are not there.

[Roisin Quinn]

There are savings, but they don’t add up to much. It comes down to questions such as – my cup of tea – really not worth the money to forego it.

[Peter Boyd]

Is £90 enough in a £1,200 energy bill ? It will be worth it to have Tesco turn off their air conditioning for a minute, but… Is there sufficient cash to see what is going on. The power of education – waiting for the kids coming through who know about energy demand ? We need a way to measure changes.

[Andrew Warren]

[to powerPerfector] You are not the only technology that is not in the SAP – in fact you have to consider the RDSAP [Reduced Data Standard Assessment Procedure] and a lot more technologies are not in there. On providing incentives : in the last few days, the Green Deal has put in place a 15 month £125 million cashback scheme rewarding you for implementing Green Deal measures – you don’t even need to take the Green Deal finance. This is to kickstart the Green Deal, and that is essential as [the Government’s own figures show] in 2013 there will be a reduction in insulation installation projected, if not.

[Caroline Lucas MP]

This does come down to political will. And the politicians will only act when more people want them to act. The population assume the situation is not serious as we say, or otherwise the politicians would have acted on it…

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Ed Davey considers delivering demand side as being his number one priority – I know his commitment to energy efficiency. It has been an interesting day in DECC…

[Keynote Address]

[Ed Davey MP, Secretary of State, Department of Energy and Climate Change, and on the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee]

I would like to offer my thanks to this group for over the years pushing an agenda I believe is incredibly important – something I’ve been involved in for many years […] We have a Bill that we’re bringing to Parliament, a really critical bill for the low carbon agenda. The challenge that faces the country is that demand is set to increase, due to economic and population growth, with the electrification of transport and the electrification of heat. As demand is likely to go up as we de-carbonise, supply is going down. A fifth of all power plants are to close by 2020 – there is a huge need for investment – £100 billion in new low carbon electricity generation by 2020 and the network grids and so on. One of the real opportunities for the UK – which is struggling with growth and needs to get the economy going. Energy is often the largest [sector for growth] available. In the national investment plan, £250 billion is needed for infrastructure investment – nearly half of that in energy, several times more than needed in transport, six times more than for water, and seven times more than needed for Crossrail. We have to double investment in energy to meet that. This is a huge opportunity for growth. It’s important for energy security, keeping the lights on and for industry. It’s a huge opportunity – and we can use it to diversify – Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) [to capture greenhouse gas emissions from coal burning] and nuclear and renewable energy all playing a part. It will insulate us from fossil fuel price spikes and the impact of [energy] bills, and meet our carbon targets. It is a timely opportunity that we need to grasp. The great thing about energy infrastructure investment is that it is available in all parts of the country – a good way of rebalancing the economy. The argument has always been that infrastructure planning takes too long – 4 to 5 years before the first sod is turned. But much energy investment money is ready. If we look at which part of the economy is growing, even in difficult times – it is the green sector. The whole point of EMR is to allow low carbon investment to happen – switching to a more low carbon [economy]. A key element is Contracts for Difference [Feed-in Tariffs] – a really smart investment instrument. On nuclear power we are negotiating bilaterally. And for Carbon Capture and Storage we have a competition. It is quite statist, quite interventionist. The EMR with CfD is about moving u from where we are through four phases to where markets are leading investment at low cost. In Phase 1, the Feed-in Tariff Contracts for Difference (CfD) prices will be set administratively [just as] had the Renewable Obligation prices set in the July review. The National Grid has already issued evidence for the strike price – to try to bring all technology groups down in cost and level the playing field. Some people think this is quite complicated. We will set a fair price, the strike price for low carbon electricity – a variable premium to top up the market price. Generators will pay back if their prices are higher than the strike price, therefore it is more cost-effective for the customer. I’ve spoken to investors – the CfD is really attractive – it offers a predictable return – smoothing out volatility. We will still get market efficiencies as companies will have to sell into the market. [In the Energy Bill I will have] powers to give project developers the comfort that they need [to arrange financing]. In 2017, Phase 2 will want to move to price discovery – with technology-specific auctions, such as with onshore wind generation. By Phase 3, current technologies will have matured, so we will move to more technology-neutral auctions. We could see all technologies competing on cost – clean affordable energy security. There is a huge amount of detail in this. We will publish in a few weeks’ time. Developers want early certainty – looking for entering into the CfD early. We will be providing commitment at a reasonable pace. Discussions about the counterparty and assuring its workability – this will probably be a company owned by the Government. In addition is the Capacity Market – as more of our electricity comes from renewable energy and less from gas etc, we will need to be sure we have enough to come on [in the case of wide variability in solar and wind power supply]. The National Grid is projecting shortfalls, so we will guarantee a steady payment for capacity – we are particularly keen to see a DSR when at the margins [of operability] at Peak [Demand, daily] organised by aggregators to prevent the prices peaking. We want to design a Capacity Market to ensure DSR plays its part. Liquidity is really important in the wholesale market – meaning for lower prices. I don’t think this is working well – we need a more diverse [energy mix]. Some think we should reintroduce the Pool, but that doesn’t solve the problem of lack of liquidity in the forward market. Ofgem has been working on potential reform – the threat of regulating has moved industry, particularly in the day-ahead market. I’ve made clear we’ll have backstop powers to promote liquidity […] On DSR, there is a real demand that Government drives permanent reduction in energy demand. This is crucial, and we are publishing our energy efficiency strategy soon. The Green Deal is going to be extremely exciting – we will see people having warmer homes, cheaper bills and lower carbon. [DSR will be either in the Bill o complementary to the Bill]. The whole point of the EMR is to move towards a low carbon economy – I think these proposals are very radical – they need backing. This is a real radical step forward.

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

You would have to be heroic to believe that you are anticipating increased electricity demand. Why have the Government got it so wrong ? If hand on heart you believe that electrification of transport will replace petrol and diesel in all cars and lorries. 70% of our gas is used to heat, and if that moves to being more electrical, it is heroic to suggest that electricity demand can go down. Our proposals are based on good calculations.

[Questions]

[Questionner]

Do you accept front page news ? That the Energy Minister has actively undermined your policy ?

[Ed Davey MP]

I hope you note the Prime Minister quotes. The Prime Minister has supported us, [saying that] although John Hayes made those remarks, it is not Government policy. I have taken personal charge of renewable energy. I am in charge of renewable energy strategy, including of onshore wind.

[Julian O’Halloran, BBC]

The implication from [John] Hayes implies that there will be a moratorium on wind power as there is enough in the pipeline already. Are you ruling out a moratorium while you are Secretary of State ?

[Ed Davey MP]

We are on track to deliver our aspirations (not targets) by 2020 as part of our renewable energy strategy, we are really getting motoring in renewable energy investment, rather than saying we don’t need any more […] I am conscious of the debate in certain parts of rural England and the Conservative back benches – 100 of them wrote to me on Day 1. It is their democratic right to voice their opinion. I issued a consultation on community energy, that new renewable energy infrastructure is part of their community and brings them benefit too. If we can show that people can benefit from onshore as well as other energy […] The opinions polls show that a significant majority are in favour, even if close to their homes. I got 62% of my Constituency vote. Wind farms are already more popular than I have ever been.

[Summit Skills]

The Green Deal Skills Alliance. We are not seeting [companies] committed to training. How can we stimulate demand ?

[Mayer Hillman]

You have confirmed my worst fears. Your aim is to match demand as efficiently and effectively as possible with the least environmental damage. Rather than the eonomy, in achieving a level playing field you should seek to attract a proper value to a tonne of Carbon. Years ago a tonne of Carbon was cheaper than now. I don’t see how you can achieve [low carbon] with a fixed price. The equation has got to include the displacement of ecological refugees.

[Jessica Lennard, Edelman]

In a statement you made [today], you said there are no targets or cap on renewable energy. Can the Minister comment on biomass ?

[Ed Davey MP]

There is a proposed cap on biomass – it is not completely financially within our envelope. Biomass investment is a bit lumpy, and [support for it] would displace [other energy technologies]. On demand for the Green Deal we’ve made a cashback available to encourage early movers. The Local Authorities are running [training] courses and we will be doing marketing efforts when after 28th January. I’d be surprised if demand was taking off now. We are expecting demand to grow – not whizz bang massive demand in the first month – it’s long-term. Solid wall insulation – it’s a bit of a hard sell. Investment is a 10 to 20 year business, not for a quick buck in the next quarter. Timing is really important, and expectations. We didn’t talk about our carbon reduction. The most ambitious carbon emissions reduction target in the world – [as outlined in our] carbon budgets. I’ve proposed decarbonisation in the Energy Bill. […] [Regarding Mayer Hillman’s points] The fixed price will be for low carbon investment. The rising prices will be on carbon. I’m working tirelessly to reform the EU ETS, to persuade the Poles and others. I’m doing exactly what I think you want – and the price of carbon should go up […] We should have no complacency whatsoever about closing the emissions gap. If sounds technocratic – markets and […] I apologise – this is how it’s done.

[Questionner]

The Prime Minister’s comments will be scrutinised in boardrooms around the world. In a speech to the CBI […] indicated a three month process in relation to gas generation investment.

[Ed Davey MP]

Called for evidence for the gas strategy to replace coal. There are various barriers to this investment. By the time you have planning gas technology has moved on – this causes delays.

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

The Energy Bill is incredibly important to get right. It’s not something that you can re-visit after 20 years – it is essential to get it right.

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Herşeyi Yak : Burn Everything

There’s good renewable energy and poorly-choiced renewable energy. Converting coal-burning power stations to burn wood is Double Plus Bad – it’s genuiunely unsustainable in the long-term to plan to combust the Earth’s boreal forests just to generate electricity. This idea definitely needs incinerating.

Gaynor Hartnell, chief executive of the Renewable Energy Association recently said, “Right now the government seems to have an institutional bias against new biomass power projects.” And do you know, from my point of view, that’s a very fine thing.

Exactly how locally-sourced would the fuel be ? The now seemingly abandoned plan to put in place a number of new biomass burning plants would rely on wood chip from across the Atlantic Ocean. That’s a plan that has a number of holes in it from the point of view of the ability to sustain this operation into the future. Plus, it’s not very efficient to transport biomass halfway across the world.

And there’s more to the efficiency question. We shouldn’t be burning premium wood biomass. Trees should be left standing if at all possible – or used in permanent construction – or buried so that they don’t decompose – if new trees need to be grown. Rather than burning good wood that could have been used for carbon sequestration, it would be much better, if we have to resort to using wood as fuel, to gasify wood waste and other wood by-products in combination with other fuels, such as excavated landfill, food waste and old rubber tyres.

Co-gasifying of mixed fuels and waste would allow cheap Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or Carbon Capture and (Re)Utilisation (CCU) options – and so if we have to top up the gasifiers with coal sometimes, at least it wouldn’t be leaking greenhouse gas to the atmosphere.

No, we shouldn’t swap out burning coal for incinerating wood, either completely or co-firing with coal. We should build up different ways to produce Renewable Gas, including the gasification of mixed fuels and waste, if we need fuels to store for later combustion. Which we will, to back up Renewable Electricity from wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower and marine resources – and Renewable Gas will be exceptionally useful for making renewable vehicle fuels.

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage : the wrong way :-
https://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/BECCS-report.pdf

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage : the right way :-
https://www.ecolateral.org/Technology/gaseifcation/gasificationnnfc090609.pdf
“The potential ability of gasifiers to accept a wider range of biomass feedstocks than biological routes. Thermochemical routes can use lignocellulosic (woody) feedstocks, and wastes, which cannot be converted by current biofuel production technologies. The resource availability of these feedstocks is very large compared with potential resource for current biofuels feedstocks. Many of these feedstocks are also lower cost than current biofuel feedstocks, with some even having negative costs (gate fees) for their use…”
https://www.uhde.eu/fileadmin/documents/brochures/gasification_technologies.pdf
https://www.gl-group.com/pdf/BGL_Gasifier_DS.pdf
https://www.energy.siemens.com/fi/en/power-generation/power-plants/carbon-capture-solutions/pre-combustion-carbon-capture/pre-combustion-carbon-capture.htm

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Cross-Motivation

A fully renewable energy future is not only possible, it is inevitable.

We need to maximise the roll out of wind and solar renewable electricity systems, and at the same time fully develop marine, geothermal and hydropower energy, and of course, energy storage.

We need strong energy conservation and energy efficiency directives to be enacted in every state, sector and region.

But we need to get from here to there. It requires the application of personal energy from all – from governments, from industry, from society.

In arguing for focus on the development of Renewable Gas, which I believe can and will be a bridge from here to a fully renewable energy future, I am making an appeal to those who view themselves as environmentalists, and also an appeal to those who view themselves as part of the energy industry.

Those who cast themselves as the “good guys”, those who want to protect the environment from the ravages of the energy industry, have for decades set themselves in opposition, politically and socially, to those in the energy production and supply sectors, and this has created a wall of negativity, a block to progress in many areas.

I would ask you to accept the situation we find ourselves in – even those who live off-grid and who have very low personal energy and material consumption – we are all dependent on the energy industry – we have a massive fossil fuel infrastructure, and companies that wield immense political power, and this cannot be changed overnight by some revolutionary activity, or by pulling public theatrical stunts.

It definitely cannot be changed by accusation, finger-pointing and blame. We are not going to wake up tomorrow in a zero carbon world. There needs to be a transition – there needs to be a vision and a will. Instead of a depressive, negative, cynical assessment of today that erects and maintains barriers to co-operation, we need optimistic, positive understanding.

In the past there has been naievety – and some environmentalists have been taken in by public relations greenwash. This is not that. The kind of propaganda used to maintain market share for the energy industry continues to prevent and poison good communications and trust. I no more believe in the magic snuff of the shale gas “game changer” than I believe in the existence of goblins and fairies. The shine on the nuclear “renaissance” wore off ever before it was buffed up. And the hopeless dream of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) becoming a global-scale solution for carbon emissions is about as realistic to me as the geoengineering described in Tolkein’s “The Lord of the Rings”.

Nuclear power and CCS are actually about mining and concrete construction – they’re not energy or climate solutions. I’m not taken in by token gestures of a small slice of wind or solar power or the promise of a segment of biofuels from large oil and gas companies. Public relations and lobbying are the lowest form of faked, usurping power – but simply attacking brands will fail to make real change. I think honesty, realism and pragmatism are the way forward – and there is nothing more practical than pushing for Renewable Gas to back up the accelerated deployment of renewable electricity to its fullest scale.

My appeal to those in control of energy provision is – to see through the fog to the unstoppable. State support, both political and financial, of new energy technologies and infrastructure has to be a short- to medium-term goal – because of the volatility of the economy, and the demands of your shareholders. The need to build public support for new energy means that we the citizens must all be offered the opportunity to own energy – and so that means building a common purpose between the energy sector and society – and that purpose must be Zero Carbon.

There is and will continue to be a porous border between the energy industry and governments – energy is a social utility of high political value. However, the privilege and access that this provides should not automatically mean that the energy industry can plunder public coffers for their own profit. What contribution can the energy industry make to society – apart from the provision of energy at cost – in addition to the subsidies ? Energy, being so vital to the economy, will mean that the energy sector will continue to survive, but it has to change its shape.

You can dance around the facts, but climate change is hitting home, and there is no point in continuing to be in denial about Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Peak Natural Gas. These are genuine risks, not only to the planet, or its people, but also your business plans. We need to be using less energy overall, and less carbon energy within the eventual envelope of energy consumption. So the energy sector needs to move away from maximising sales of energy to optimising sales of energy services and selling low carbon energy systems, power and fuels.

You would be wrong to dismiss me as an “eco warrior” – I’m an engineer – and I’ve always believed in co-operation, expertise, professionalism, technology and industrial prowess. What impresses me is low carbon energy deployment and zero carbon energy research. Progress is in evidence, and it is showing the way to the future. Realistically speaking, in 20 years’ time, nobody will be able to dismiss the risks and threats of climate change and energy insecurity – the evidence accumulates. We, the zero carbon visionaries, are not going to stop talking about this and acting on it – as time goes by, the reasons for all to engage with these issues will increase, regardless of efforts to distract.

Nothing is perfect. I no more believe in a green utopia than I do in unicorns. But without reacting to climate change and energy insecurity, the stock market will not carry you, even though the governments must for the mean time, until clean and green energy engineering and service organisations rise up to replace you. Lobbying for pretences will ultimately fail – fail not only governments or peoples, but you. You, the energy industry, must start acting for the long-term or you will be ousted. As your CEOs retire, younger heads will fill leadership shoes – and younger minds know and accept the perils of climate change and energy insecurity.

This is the evolution, not revolution. It is time to publicly admit that you do know that economically recoverable fossil fuels are limited, and that climate change is as dangerous to your business models as it is to human settlements and the biosphere. Admit it in a way that points to a sustainable future – for you and the climate. The pollution of economically borderline unconventional fuels is wrong and avoidable – what we need are renewable energies, energy conservation and energy efficiency. One without the others is not enough.

How can your business succeed ? In selling renewable energy, energy conservation and energy efficiency. You have to sell the management of energy. You have to be genuinely “world class” and show us how. No more spills, blowouts and emissions. No more tokenistic sponsorship of arts, culture and sports. The veneer of respectability is wearing thin.

As an engineer, I understand the problems of system management – all things within the boundary wall need to be considered and dealt with. One thing is certain, however. Everything is within the walls. And that means that all must change.


https://houstonfeldenkrais.com/tag/cross-motivation/ “…Of course, the money would be great. But adding in the reward/punishment dimension is a sure way to sabotage brilliant performance. Moshe Feldenkrais observed that when one is striving to meet an externally imposed goal, the spine shortens, muscles tense, and the body (and mind) actually works against itself. He called this “cross motivation,” and it occurs when one forsakes one’s internal truth to maintain external equilibrium. There are lots of examples of this: the child stops doing what she’s doing because of the fear of losing parental approval, love, protection. The employee cooks the books to keep his job. The candidate delivers the sound bite, and dies a little inside. Feldenkrais attributed most of our human mental and physical difficulties to the problem of cross motivation. If you watch Michael Phelps swim, you can’t help but notice that he makes it look easy. He is clearly strong and powerful, but all of his strength and power are focused on moving him through the water with the greatest speed and efficiency. There’s no wasted effort, no struggle, no straining. He is free of cross-motivation! Would straining make him faster? Of course not. Unnecessary muscular effort would make him less buoyant, less mobile, less flexible. Will dangling a million dollars at the finish line make him swim faster? Probably just the opposite, unless Michael Phelps has some great inner resources to draw upon. The young Mr. Phelps has already learned how to tune out a lot of the hype. He’ll need to rely on “the cultivation of detachment,” the ability to care without caring…”

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Greenpeace Windgas : Renewable Hydrogen

https://www.lngworldnews.com/gasunie-greenpeace-energy-choose-suderburg-as-windgas-location-germany/
https://www.greenpeace-energy.de/presse/pressedetails/article/neuer-schwung-fuer-die-energiewende-windgas-made-in-suderburg.html
https://www.greenpeace-energy.de/windgas.html
https://vimeo.com/44094925

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Enron, Fudging and the Magic Flute

Allegedly, the United Kingdom is about to break free from the Dark Ages of subsidies, and enter the glorious light of a free and light-touch regulated, competitive electricity market.

The Electricity Market Reform is being sold to us as the way to create a level playing field between low carbon electricity generation technologies, whether they be established or new, baseload or variable, costly-up-front or cheap-and-quick-to-grid.


Personally, I do not accept the mythology of the Free Market. I do not accept that a fully competitive, privatised energy sector can be delivered, regardless of the mechanisms proposed. The Electricity Market Reform is less Englightenment and more Obscurantism, in my view – the call of the Magic Flute is going to fall on deaf ears.

Who will play the pipe ? Who will call the tune ? Who will be the Counterparty ?
At the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios day conference-seminar on Thursday 27th September 2012, I listened carefully to several spokesmen from the companies, quangos and agencies deny that they would have anything to do with determining, underwriting or administering deals for the EMR’s proposed “Contracts for Difference” (CfD) – essentially setting a guaranteed lowest price for selling electricity to the grid, regardless of market movement. Mark Ripley of the EMR team at National Grid was very clear “National Grid will not be the contractual counterparty for the CfD”. I asked Jonathan Brearley of the UK Government Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) at a break who would be independent enough to set the “strike price” – the minimum price for which electricity generators could expect to sell electricity ? He suggested that perhaps the UK Government would set up an independent governing body – gesturing at arm’s length. I asked him rhetorically who could reasonably be expected to be seconded to this new quango – how could they be truly independent…I did not get an opportunity to ask how the CfD revenues and payouts would be administered. I didn’t know at that time about the rumours that Ofgem – the current electricity generation quango regulator – could be closed down under a new Labour Government.

The shadow cast by the nuclear industry
During the presentation by Jonathan Brearley of DECC, he indicated that back room discussions are going on between large potential electricity generation investors and the UK Government. Even before the ink has hit the paper on the EMR draft, it seems the UK Government is inviting large investors to come and talk to them about deals for guaranteed generation sales prices. As far as my notes indicate, he said “The first nuclear project has already approached us for a contract.” I asked him directly in the break if this kind of pre-legislation arrangement was going to allow the nuclear industry to cream off subsidies. He denied that Contracts for Difference would be allocated for current nuclear power plants. He did not admit that there are strong indications that the so-called Capacity Mechanism of the EMR could be applied, propping up the profits of the nuclear power plants already running, and encouraging them to apply for extension licences for their cracked reactors to keep running after they should have been shut down for safety reasons.

After the National Grid meeting, I went to an EcoConnect meeting, where Eric Machiels of Infinis said, in reference to the strong influence of EdF (Electricite de France) in proposing new nuclear reactors in the UK, “The EMR was set up to meet two requirements. [First] to justify incredibly high investments. [And] nuclear – if you need to invest £10 billion or more, 10 years away, you need regulatory certainty…[But you have to know, decisions on nuclear development] will rely on decisions made in the Elysee Palace and not in Number 10.”

Well, it seems clear that the steer is still towards the UK taxpayers and billpayers stumping up to support the ailing French atomic power fleet.

A bit of a big fudge
There is no reason to believe that the Curse of Enron will not haunt the UK energy trading halls if the EMR goes ahead with its various microeconomic policies. Everybody will play for profits, and the strength of over-competitive behaviour between the current market actors will not encourage or permit new market entrants.

At the EcoConnect meeting, Diane Dowdell of Tradelink Solutions warned of the risks of going back to the kind of electricity markets of former decades, “Unless you worked under the Pool, you wouldn’t know how it works. It is a derivative…DECC need to look at Ireland – their Pool system has been utterly destroyed. Please don’t follow in the footsteps of Ireland – get the balancing right.”

The big issue is the macroeconomic need to incentivise investment in new electricity generation plant and infrastructure – something that will not be achieved by flipping microeconomic market trading conditions to benefit low carbon generators. How can new low carbon generators come onto the grid ? By placing focus on investment decisions. New generation has to clear a higher hurdle than how much it can sell green power for on the half-hourly market. Funds and financing are not going to be directed to choose low carbon investment just because marginal costs (the Carbon Floor Price and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme) are applied to high carbon players already in the market. The guarantees of profits into the future from the institution of Contracts for Difference (Feed in Tariff) and the Capacity Mechanism will maybe trigger a slice of investment in new nuclear power, but it won’t ensure that new gas-fired power plants are built with Carbon Capture and Storage.

At the EcoConnect meeting later on, another DECC man reported back on the UK Government’s call for evidence on the EMR. DECC’s Matt Coyne said that amongst the conclusions from the consultation with industry there were concerns about the conditions for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) under the EMR. (Securing a PPA is the guarantee that investors need to be able to commit to backing new electricity generation capacity). He said that developers are finding it hard to secure finance for new generation investment and that it was a widely-held view that the EMR would not improve that, although he said that “it is our view that the Contracts for Difference will improve things.” Other people at the meeting were not so sure. Diane Dowdell said, “I desperately hope the EMR works. It’s got to work. [Conditions] seem to be edging out the small- and mid-sized players.” Eric Machiels said, “The Big Six vertically integrated energy suppliers are in the best position to retain their position.”

In my notes, I scribbled that Michael Ware, a dealmaking matchmaker for renewable energy projects, offered the view that “Government does resemble toddlers driving a steam train – there are lots of buttons to push…[The UK is] just a rainy little island at the edge of Europe. Capital is truly international. It all feels much easier to do business elsewhere. [The EMR looks] almost designed to turn off investors.”

There were several calls to retain the Renewables Obligation – to oblige energy suppliers to keep signing up new clean power from smaller players if they couldn’t make it themselves.

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Climate Change : Reality Report

You would have thought that people would be pulling together to get something done about Climate Change, but no. For example, whilst the UK Government Treasury and its Chancellor continue to fight a running battle with their Climate Change Department, the Prime Minister has just replaced a knowledgable Energy Minister (albeit with a Public Relations rather than an Engineering background) with somebody who seems to be against wind power – one of the only successfully deploying electricity technologies currently. And hired a relative of a rich and powerful Climate Change denier as Environment Minister.

Great.

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Energy Together : I’m just getting warmed up

The human race – we have to solve energy together. And to do that, we need to harness all our personal, purposeful, positive energies, and let me tell you, personally, I feel electric – and I’m only just getting warmed up.

So let’s hear less of the nonsense from authoritatively-accredited people who want to put a dampener on green energy, who say that saving energy cannot, simply cannot be done, sigh, sigh, sigh, collective groan. We have so much energy together, we can do this.

We have the will power, the staying power, the investment power, and we will navigate the obstacles in our path.

Let’s not waste any more time on expensive trinkets, and iddy-biddy fancies with high unit costs and low compatibility to the future. Yes, I’m talking nuclear power. I’m talking the nobody-really-wants-to-do-it-and-nobody-thinks-it-can-be-cheap-enough-to-work-at-scale Carbon Capture and Storage. And yes, I’m talking carbon markets – tell me again, where are they now ? Oh yes, still in the starting blocks.

And don’t even start to talk about pricing carbon to me – in this world of rollercoaster, highly volatile energy prices, what on Earth could costing or taxing carbon actually achieve ? And fusion power ? Nah, mate, forget it. It’s been 50 years away for the last 50 years.

Shale gas, oil from shales, tar sands, coal bed methane collection and underground coal gasification are once-abandoned messy ideas from way back. They’re still messy, and they’re still retro, and they’re not going to get us anywhere. If the United States of America want to completely ruin their lithosphere, well, that’s up to them, but don’t come around here toxifying our aquifers and poisoning our European trees !

What we need is marine energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, solar power, wind power, and Renewable Gas, because gaseous fuels are so flexible and store-able and can come from many, many processes. And we need the next optimistic generation of leaders to push through the administration ceiling and get green energy policy really rolling, attracting all the green investment will.

If I were a power plant, I would be cranking out the current and making everything shine very, very brightly just now.

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Un égard, un regard, un certain regard

Whatever it is, it starts with attention, paying attention.

Attention to numbers, faces, needs, consideration of the rights and wrongs and probables.

Thinking things through, looking vulnerable children and aggressive control freaks directly in the eye, being truly brave enough to face both radiant beauty and unbelievable evil with equanimity.

To study. To look, and then look again.

To adopt a manner of seeing, and if you cannot see, to learn to truly absorb the soundscape of your world – to pick up the detail, to fully engage.

It is a way of filling up your soul with the new, the good, the amazing; and also the way to empty worthless vanity from your life.

Simone Weil expressed this truth in these words : “Toutes les fois qu’on fait vraiment attention, on détruit du mal en soi.” If you pay close attention, you learn what is truly of value, and you jettison incongruities and waywardness. She also pronounced that “L’attention est la forme la plus rare et la plus pure de la générosité.” And she is right. People feel truly valued if you gaze at them, and properly listen to them.

Those of us who have researched climate change and the limits to natural resources, those of us who have looked beyond the public relations of energy companies whose shares are traded on the stock markets – we are paying attention. We have been working hard to raise the issues for the attention of others, and sometimes this has depleted our personal energies, caused us sleepless nights, given us depression, fatalism, made us listless, aimless, frustrated.

Some of us turn to prayer or other forms of meditation. We are enabled to listen, to learn, to try again to communicate, to bridge divides, to empathise.

A transformation can take place. The person who pays close attention to others becomes trusted, attractive in a pure, transparent way. People know our hearts, they have confidence in us, when we give them our time and an open door.

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What is my agenda ?


Tamino’s Arctic Sea Ice Poll


For some time I have not felt a keen sense of “mission” – a direction for my climate change and energy activities. However, I am beginning to formulate a plan – or rather – I have one important item on my agenda. I am aware that perception can be fatal – and that people in many “camps” are going to dismiss me because of this.

Suddenly I don’t fit into anybody’s pigeonhole – so the needle on the dial will probably swing over to “dismiss”. However, I think it’s necessary to pursue this. I think I have to try.

I am prepared to hold several conflicting ideas in the balance at one time, and let the data add mass to one version of the truth or another.

I’m prepared to accept the possibility of low climate change sensitivity (the reaction of the Earth biosystem to global warming) – apart from the fact that the evidence is accumulating – pointing heavily towards rapid instabilities emerging on short timescales. I don’t think I ever really left behind the hope – and I’m crossing my fingers here – that some massive negative carbon feedback will arise, heroically, and stem the full vigour of climate chaos. But as time slips by, and the Arctic cryosphere continues to de-materialise before our very eyes, that hope is worn down to the barest of threads.

And on energy security, I am prepared to accept the reasoning behind the IEA, BP, Shell and other projections of increasing overall energy demand between now and 2035, and the percentage of fossil fuel use that will inevitably require – apart from the fact that some evidence points towards increasing uncertainties in energy provision – if we are relying on more complex and inaccessible resources, within the framework of an increasingly patchy global economy.

If access to energy becomes threatened for more people globally, and also if climate change becomes highly aggressive in terms of freshwater stress, then I doubt that human population growth can carry on the way it has been – and in addition the global economy may never recover – which means that overall energy demand will not grow in the way that oil and gas companies would like their shareholders to accept.

My impression is that energy producing companies and countries are not openly admitting the risks. If energy supply chaos sets in, then the political and governance ramifications will be enormous, especially since the energy industry is so embedded in administrations. It is time, in my view, that projections of world energy use to 2035 included error bars based on economic failure due to energy chaos.

What do I need to do – given these pragmatic positions ? I need to include realists in the crisis talks – pragmatic, flexible thinkers from the energy industry. Just as we are not going to solve climate change without addressing energy provision, we are not going to solve energy insecurity without addressing climate change impacts on energy infrastructure. And so I need to find the energy industry people, meet them and invite them to the discussions on the risks of chaos. I need people to take in the data. I need people to understand the problems with slipping back into “thinking as usual”.

As to the setting – whether I should be an employee or an independent advisor/adviser, consultant or a researcher, I don’t have any idea what would be best. Collaborators would be useful – as I am but one person with a track record of being rather awkward – despite trying to engage my best behaviour. But then, nobody’s perfect. In a sense it doesn’t matter who does the job, but we have to break the public relations-guided psychology of denial. People are not generally stupid, and many are snapping out of their drip-fed propaganda delusions. I wonder exactly how many other imperfect people are out there who are coming to the same conclusions ? And what will be the game changer ?

Categories
Assets not Liabilities Big Number Energy Autonomy Energy Change Renewable Resource Wind of Fortune

Christopher Booker : Way Out

Wind power is magic. Wind power is almost infinitely scalable. Wind power is for everyone. Wind power is incredibly successful and growing almost exponentially. Yet some recalcitrant intransigents, such as Christopher Booker, persist, like sea hawks, in clinging onto the fossil fuel guano in their ossified little niche perches, high above the wind-power blown cliffs of reality. Wind power is here, and it’s working, and it’s displacing carbon emissions, but to read Christopher Booker you’d think it were the height of folly to deploy it.

He cannot purvey his argument on the basis of the facts, and so he resorts to repeating outdated and confused information, thinking that mere repetition of erroneous statistics counts for the truth.

His position has been trounced, locked in the floodlight beam and stamped on by several intelligent parties, but meanwhile, people are arguing about his weekend article. They’re not arguing about whether he’s right (he clearly isn’t) or wrong, but about excactly how wrong he is. All I know without doing in-depth calculations is that he’s at least 30% way out – although others argue he’s up to around 70% out. And what are the numbers he’s so misguided about ? The number of wind turbines UK policy dictates should be installed.

Here’s Booker :-
“…in 2010, the last year for which we have figures, we used 378 TWh of electricity, of which only 10 TWh, or 2.6 per cent, came from wind….If 3,000-odd turbines produced 2.6 per cent in 2010, then to meet the EU target would require something like the “32,000 turbines” mentioned by Davey’s predecessor Chris Huhne just before he resigned. This would require us to build about 10 giant turbines every day for the next eight years. Regardless of how many billions of pounds of subsidy might be thrown at this, in practical terms it is quite out of the question…”

Here’s Christian Hunt of Carbon Brief explaining how Booker is using out of date figures :-

“…Booker is taking figures from DECC’s 2011 Digest of UK Energy Statistics (DUKES) report, which provides UK energy statistics for 2010. But although he says these are the most recent figures available, the new edition of DUKES was published last week, providing information on what happened in 2011. These new figures show the year saw fairly significant growth in the amount of electricity coming from renewable sources. The amount of electricity generated by wind power rose from 10.2 terawatt hours in 2010 to 15.75 TWh in 2011 – a rise of 5.53 TWh. This made up much of a wider growth in renewable power – renewables generated 34.4 TWh of electricity in 2011, a rise of about 8.6 TWh compared to 2010…”

And here is what he summarises about how to count wind turbines :-

“…According to Renewable UK, the generating capacity of wind turbines currently being installed is about 2 MW for onshore and 3.6 MW for offshore. Plugging those numbers in, an extra 73.6 TWh would take either another 15,600 onshore turbines, or 6,300 offshore. In practice, the numbers are likely to be smaller. Offshore turbines will continue to increase in size, meaning it will take less to produce more power. Turbines will probably become more effective – increasing their load factor. And other sources of renewables will produce more power, reducing the amount of wind turbines needed to hit a particular amount of renewably-generated power. So the 32,000 figure looks pretty overinflated…”

And here’s the online Claverton Energy Research Group forum picking their way through various alternative answers :-

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From: Eric Payne
Subject: Article in The Daily Telegraph about Britain’s energy policy

Hi

As experts in this area, I would be very interested to hear people’s views on this piece in The Daily Telegraph.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/9434114/The-Government-plans-to-break-its-own-climate-change-law.html#disqus_thread

How accurate is the information quoted and what is its significance for Britain’s energy policy?

Best regards

Eric Payne
Deputy Editor – Euroasia Industry Magazine

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From: David Hirst

A fraudulent article. It does not mention that the change was forced by Osborne and the Treasury, who insisted that gas should continue to receive the subsidies it already gets. But likely true in the sense that UK energy policy is now undeniably incompatible with climate change objectives, and the legal carbon budget.

The nuclear industry is undoubtedly looking on with glee, and doing some of the stirring and distortion. But they cannot deny climate change, as it is the only shred of opaque clothing on that emperor.

What I find even more shocking through, is the huge barrage of comments, most of which seem to deny any role for wind, and deny the science of climate change. Although always deeply biased towards the middle class and the rich, the Telegraph has become a mouthpiece of denial, and this is very dangerous.

I suppose we ought to form all sorts of aliases, and spend our days balancing the lunatic comments with occasional sensible ones. Who knows, Osborne might take notice.

Horrible.

David Hirst
Hirst Solutions Limited

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From: Herbert Eppel

Hi

Mr Booker who, according to Wikipedia, “has taken a stance which runs counter to the scientific consensus on a number of issues, including global warming”, would be well advised to have a look at this: .

I’m sure Britain’s energy policy would be in a better shape if it didn’t keep getting side-tracked by such maverick interventions.

Herbert Eppel
www.HETranslation.co.uk

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From: Eric Payne

So, is the need to ‘keep the lights on’ compatible with present renewable electricity and carbon emissions targets?

Is a large build out of new wind turbines the best way to address those needs? Is it preferable to preserve the wind turbine subsidy at its present level in order to achieve the same?

What other options/policies (if any) might be more effective?

Best,

Eric

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From: Herbert Eppel

As I keep saying, we need to fire on all renewables cylinders.

Wind should, without a doubt, play a key part.

Check out the numerous pertinent links I sent over the last few months (not sure whether you read the Claverton messages regularly) – see .

Best

Herbert Eppel

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From: Jo Abbess

Dear Eric,

Christopher Booker uses emotive language. Before reading his article
properly to investigate anything he is claiming as fact, I would
suggest that you remove all traces of language that tugs on your
emotions, or guides your opinion – for example :-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/9434114/The-Government-plans-to-break-its-own-climate-change-law.html#disqus_thread

“The Government plans to break its own climate change law” – the use
of the word “break” is a direction for you to consider that the
Government are acting in an illegal (“plans”) or incompetent manner
(“its own”).

“Politicians are finally admitting that our ‘carbon’ targets and our
energy needs are incompatible” – the use of the phrase “finally
admiting” is intended to make you consider that politicians have been
hiding some unrevealed facts. The use of the word “incompatible” is an
assertion that runs counter to the facts.

Other examples “serious breach of the law”, “opaque”, “catastrophic
shambles”, “spin doctors”, “victory”, “dutifully echoed”, “risible
claim”, “betrayed”, “two wholly irreconcilable hooks”, “Hidden”,
“obscurely phrased”, “in practical terms it is quite out of the
question”, “revealing”, “economic suicide”…

Strip these things out of the opinion piece and then you have some
claims and numbers that can be investigated.

Note : this is an opinion piece, and is not expected to be taken as a
factual report. Newspapers are fond of opinion pieces as they are
often scandalous and generate a lot of discussion. The Daily Telegraph
has another famous opinionated writer – James Delingpole, who with
Christopher Booker were largely responsible for blowing “Climategate”
into the puffery of nonsense that people thought was serious but was
all a cloud of nothing. The Climategate accusations were that climate
change scientists have been manipulating data, lying and hiding – but
all the enquiries into this have vindicated the scientists. Strangely,
James Delingpole and Christopher Booker are still employed to write
for the Daily Telegraph, despite this “shenanigans”.

See “Views on science” here :
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Christopher_Booker for more about
Christopher Booker’s relationship with scientific truth.

Note how Christopher Booker puts a halo round the head of shale gas
development, “And not the least telling feature of last week’s
statement was that it made no reference to the shale gas revolution
which has already halved US gas prices in five years, and which could
solve our own energy problems by providing cheap gas for centuries.”
Err, no, not according to the experts who are saying that even though
there may be significant shale gas resources under the UK, that
production volumes might not get very high. And the total resource is
currently estimated at around 50 years, not several centuries, of
current gas demand. You have to remember that the United States is a
unique case as regards shale gas – they have done everything to permit
and encourage its development – including ripping up their
environmental standards. And although shale gas in the USA could reach
something like 25% of total gas production by 2030 (others use higher
numbers), you have to bear in mind that non-shale gas could start to
decline significantly, so the total of US gas could peak in 2035 –
check the diagrams from the EIA.

And don’t forget – American academics that have vindicated shale gas
have now been exposed as being paid…by the fossil fuel industry :-
https://www.wired.com/wiredscience/2012/07/gas-fracking-science-conflict/

Two useful links :-
https://royalsociety.org/policy/projects/shale-gas-extraction/report/

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/apr/17/shale-gas-fracking-uk

Christopher Booker shows himself to be a “wind-up merchant” with this :-
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/comment/columnists/christopherbooker/9434114/The-Government-plans-to-break-its-own-climate-change-law.html#disqus_thread
“…Greenland’s ice cap was on the brink of melting… for a few hours :
Nothing could have better demonstrated the desperate straits to which
global warmists have been driven as they try to keep their scare going
than two satellite pictures in last Tuesday’s Guardian, showing a
change that had come over the Greenland ice cap. One showed, in white,
the second-largest mass of land ice on the planet, seemingly intact.
The other, taken a few days later, showed in pink a seemingly
ubiquitous melting. These Nasa pictures, we were told, showed
alarmingly that, for the first time in history, the surface ice was
melting right across Greenland. It took only hours for this scare
story to be blown apart. A tiny rise in air temperatures had
momentarily taken them just above freezing, enough to melt a few
inches of surface ice. But the ice below it, up to two miles deep, had
been unaffected. This had happened before, in 1889. Ice cores show
that it happens every 150 years or so. Within hours, as even the BBC
admitted, the ice had frozen again. The shortest scare in history was
over.”

Again he uses emotive language and he should not be relied upon in my
view. See instead here – the first from an actual working climate
scientist :-

https://storify.com/icey_mark/the-greenland-surface-melt-story
https://www.carbonbrief.org/blog/2012/07/greenland-97-per-cent-surface-melting
https://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2012/jul/26/greenland-ice-sheet-borrowed-time

I’m sorry I don’t have time to debunk this piece more thoroughly. It
is typical Christopher Booker – I find his style is very 1980s – he
seems to want to create sensational scandal by pushing your emotional
buttons and making unjustifiable claims.

I don’t trust his output. End of.

jo.

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From: Frank Holland

Jo,

Follow the money, who, apart from the Torygraph, is paying Booker?

Frank

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From: Dave Andrews

My take on one of his points:

….he says

“Hidden in the small print of Davey’s statement are two passages of particular significance. One, so obscurely phrased that it seems to have passed everyone by, is that by 2017 we hope to be generating “79 terawatt hours” (TWh) of electricity a year from renewables, rising by 2020 to the “108 TWh needed to meet the UK’s 2020 renewable energy target”. To make sense of this, one must look at the section of DECC’s website showing that, in 2010, the last year for which we have figures, we used 378 TWh of electricity, of which only 10 TWh, or 2.6 per cent, came from wind. Slightly more than this came from other renewables, such as hydro. But to meet that 32 per cent target within eight years, almost all the increase would have to come from new wind turbines.

If 3,000-odd turbines produced 2.6 per cent in 2010, then to meet the EU target would require something like the “32,000 turbines” mentioned by Davey’s predecessor Chris Huhne just before he resigned. This would require us to build about 10 giant turbines every day for the next eight years. Regardless of how many billions of pounds of subsidy might be thrown at this, in practical terms it is quite out of the question.”……..

My calculation based on the latest turbines being installed off shore are 6.15, and onshore 7.5 MW. Going with the lower figures and using a 40% load factor, then this needs for 108 TWh only 5011 such turbines. Over 8 years, this is a rate of installation of 1.7 per day, so he out by a factor of 5.8 or 580% a figure relatively as large as his ego and the fee paid by the lobbyists who wrote this crap for him.

1.7 per day would be easily achievable with the appropriate incentives. The Allies built 600,000 aircraft in ww2 with an average engine power of around 1 MW and 225,000 armoured vehicles – add those together 2:1 to get roughly one turbine and that is say 500,000 equivalent turbines units over 5 years or 273 per day, plus a lot of airfields, ships etc.

The advantage this time round is that this hardware has an NPV which is positive.

The subsidies he talks about are far less than paid to the fossil industry…didn’t Osborne just give a £100m tax break to the offshore gas industry to cite one?

Dave

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From: John Baldwin

Dave,

Your figures don’t seem right!! You may be right and Booker wrong but I’m not sure, needs a comment from an offshore wind bod.

Regards

John

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From: Dave Andrews

John, which figures, the size, or the load factor?

Or the sum?

Dave

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From: Jo Abbess

Dear Clavs,

I think part of the problem with Christopher Booker’s figures are that
he’s using out of date statistics.

For example, in the Renewable Energy Roadmap :-

https://www.decc.gov.uk/assets/decc/11/meeting-energy-demand/renewable-energy/2167-uk-renewable-energy-roadmap.pdf

Energy demand is forecast to be 1557 TWh in 2020 in the Government’s
central projection on the RED definition.

15% of this is 233.55 TWh – expected to be from renewable resources.
But you have to remember this includes heat as well as electricity.

The Renewable Energy Roadmap expects that wind power will generate :-
Figure 2
Onshore 24 – 32 TWh
Offshore 33 – 58 TWh

Christopher Booker is saying that generation from wind power is 10 TWh
from 3,000 wind turbines. He is probably looking at 2012 data for the
generation, and today’s data for the count of wind turbines.

Renewable UK have an up-to-date counter :-

https://www.bwea.com/ukwed/index.asp

Currently there are 3,868 turbines generating 16 TWh

Onshore = ~ 5,000 MW installed capacity
Offshore = ~ 2,000 MW installed capacity.

These figures are roughly 20% higher than 2010 counts for onshore and
nearly 100% higher for offshore.

So we have a classic Christopher Booker fudge.

1. He’s not comparing apples with apples, but 2010 data with 2012 data.

2. He’s mistaken “energy” for “electricity”.

I rest my case.

jo.

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From: Jo Abbess

And Clavs,

I forgot to add :-

3. Wind turbines are increasing in their capacity ratings as time
goes by – so even the high end of wind power projection in the DECC
roadmap 90 TWh will mean less numbers of turbines than the simple
calculation of ( 90 / 16 * 3868 ) = 21,758 turbines.

Even if the average capacity moved up by 10% (and admitting that not
all turbines will be larger), that would mean closer to 20,000 than
30,000 turbines overall.

So Christopher Booker is out by a whopping great 30% or so.

jo.

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From: Steve Browning

Hi All, I must admit you get too much emotive language and bad numbers, with politics in the current energy debate…

From a PRASEG meeting with Charles Hendry last month, it does look as if we are going for ‘Gas and Air’.

When I first looked at the issues with 32GW of wind in our 60GWMax/24GWmin system two years ago, I think the figure quoted for 2020 was @6400 turbines. That would be an average of 5MW/turbine
At 33% load factor that lot would deliver @92.5TWh which is @ 28% of the 2011 electrical demand (329TWh = sum of Power station sent out).
However, we dont have Big Hydro (Alpine/Norway/Sweden) or Big Interconnectors which is how the EU continental system (Max 380GW) stabilises the existing wind and solar (mainly Germany and Spain).

I believe the the largest wind machine available currently is the Enercon E-126 (DC Generator) at 6MW

I assume it takes a lot of energy and material to build one of these.

We still have to get a handle on ‘value’ for each future scenario, including all the internal and external costs and drivers.

Regards

Steve

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From: Frank Holland

Booker is a history graduate, he claims that asbestos is the same as
talcum powder. Asbestos is Mg3(Si2O5)(OH)4 talc is
Mg3Si4O10(OH)2….both could be described as hydrated magnesium
silicate, but asbestos is fibrous, talc is crystalline or plate like.
It’s the fibres that cause the problem….but then how would we expect a
historian to know that?

He is best ignored.

Frank

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From: Dave Andrews

John, my wind turbine size and the load factor are correct. They are supplied by a wind energy expert, pphd, ex utility, hired to study these things by a governmental scientific organization.

So are you saying my calculation is wrong?

Kind regards

Dave

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From: Eric Payne

What body would be responsible for commissioning a ‘walk-through’ study calculating the practicability of different future energy scenarios and their affect on the grid?

Have any full or partial studies been carried out? If not, why not?

Best

Eric

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From: Fred Starr

Dear Jo

When I saw the figure for wind energy I ceased to read any more because the figures are well out of date. There was a big expansion after 2009, but more recently this has slowed. The capacity on the Grid is still 4686 MW

You would do be writing to him.

Fred

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From: Neil Crumpton

Regarding the number of UK turbines by 2020 if producing 90 TWh – I make it around 11,000 not 20,000 to 30,000 !

calcs below

Neil

PS my view of journalists (and politicians) confusing energy with electricity have been well aired over the years on Claverton

PPS 15 % of 2020 final energy demand will be around 230 TWh/y – so more than 100 TWh/y of wind by 2020 would give UK a better chance of reaching the target (and biomass CHP – with CCS)

————–

i) offshore turbine capacity (assuming 58 TWh/y at 38 %) = 17.4 GW ( offC x 8.76 x 0.38 = 58 )

So assuming average offshore turbine capacity is 5 MW (ie mostly 5-6 GW from now) = 3,480 turbines – say 3,500 turbines

ii) onshore turbine capacity (assuming 32 TWh/y at 28 %) = 13 GW ( onC x 8.76 x 0.28 = 32 )

So assuming average onshore turbine capacity is 2 MW (ie mostly 2+ GW from now) = 6,500 turbines

Hence total number of turbines to generate 90 TWh/y in 2020 would be around 10,000, say 11,000 or 12,000 if average capacity and capacity factors are a bit less than I estimated above

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From: Dave Andrews

The correct figure to generate the electricity he is talking about, irrespective of if it is the right amount is 1.7 turbines per day, whereas he gets 10 per day. (John you still havent told me what is wrong with this figure – the capacity is right and the load factor is right)

This would be easy to produce given the right industrial and supportive environment. The peak capacity of vehicle engines in the UK is about 2,500 GW and this is replaced every 10 years, so we make 684 MW per day of mobile chp plant (cars).

This is the equivalent in power terms of ~114 6 MW wind turbine per day.

Dave

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From: Jo Abbess

Dear Eric,

Are you aware of the Offshore Valuation that looked at scenarios for
Britain’s offshore wind power ?

https://www.offshorevaluation.org/

This was a joint UK Government and industry first pass assessment on
capacity building.

Note the strong emphasis on NPV – building a net present value or
genuine asset for the country.

Regards,

jo.

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Gas in the UK (3)

Bursting the Nuclear Bubble

The UK Government appear to have seen the light about their, frankly, rubbish plan to covertly invest in (by hidden subsidies) a spanking new fleet of nuclear power reactors.

Dogged by Electricite de France (EdF) as they have been, with Vincent de Rivaz continuing to proffer his begging bowl with outstretched pleading arms, it just might be that before the Energy Bill is finally announced –

when the Electricity Market Reform (EMR) dust has settled – that this new thinking will have become core solidity.

After all, there are plenty of reasons not to support new nuclear power – apart from the immense costs, the unclear costs, the lack of immediate power generation until at least a decade of concrete has been poured, and so on (and so forth).

Gas is Laughing

It appears that reality has bitten – and that the UK Government are pursuing gas. And they have decided not to hatch their eggs all in one basket. First of all, there’s a love-in with Statoil of Norway :-

https://www.decc.gov.uk/en/content/cms/news/pn12_072/pn12_072.aspx
https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/newsbysector/energy/9316935/French-president-Francois-Hollande-cuts-retirement-age.html
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-politics-18344831
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/david-cameron-praises-uknorway-energy-linkup-7826436.html
https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/damian-carrington-blog/2012/jun/07/energy-uk-norway-oil-gas-renewables

Then, there’s the new “South Stream” commitment – the new Azerbaijan-European Union agreement, spelled out in a meeting of the European Centre for Energy and Resource Security (EUCERS) on 12th June at King’s College, London :-

https://www.eucers.eu/2012/06/07/5-eucers-energy-talk-the-southern-gas-corridor-at-the-home-stretch/
https://abc.az/eng/news/65475.html
https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas/Azerbaijan-Turkey-Deepen-their-Energy-Ties.html
https://euobserver.com/19/116394
https://www.atimes.com/atimes/Central_Asia/NC23Ag02.html

Meanwhile, the “North Stream” gas pipeline is going to feed new Russian gas to Europe, too (since the old Siberian gas fields have become exhausted) :-

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-15637244
https://www.nord-stream.com/pipeline/
https://www.gazprom.com/about/production/projects/mega-yamal/
https://www.gpilondon.com/index.php?id=325

And then there’s the amazing new truth – Natural Gas is a “green” energy, according to the European Union :-

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/may/29/gas-rebranded-green-energy-eu

The UK will still be importing Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) from our good old friends in Qatar. Never mind the political interference in the nearby region and the human rights abuses, although NATO could be asked to put a stop to that if Europe needed to bust the regime in order for their energy companies to take ownership of the lovely, lovely gas. I mean, that’s what happened in Iraq and Libya, didn’t it ?

A Fossilised Future

So, despite all the green noises from the UK Government, the underlying strategy for the future (having batted away the nuclear buzzing insects around the corpse of British energy policy), is as Steve Browning, formerly of National Grid says – “gas and air” – with Big Wind power being the commercialisable renewable technology of choice. But not too much wind power – after all, the grid could become unstable, couldn’t it, with too much wind ?

There are several problems with this. First, the commitment to fossil fuels – even Natural Gas with its half the emissions profile of coal – is a risky strategy, despite making sure that supplies are secure in the near term. The reasons for this are geological as well as geopolitical. Natural Gas will peak, and even the UK Government accepts that unconventional gas will not keep fossil gas going forever – even with the “18 years” ultimate recoverable from under Lancashire of shale gas (that’s “18 years” of current gas annual demand – but not all drilled at once – perhaps amounting to about 1.5% of current UK gas supply needs per year, stretched out over 40 years) , and the billion tonnes of coal that can be gasified from under the sea off the east coast of England. As long as Carbon Capture and Storage can work.

Not only will Natural Gas peak and start to decline in the UK, it will also peak and decline in the various other foreign resources the UK is promising to buy. By simple logic – if the North Sea gas began depletion after only 30 years – and this was a top quality concentrated resource – how soon will poorer quality gas fields start depleting ?

Whilst I recognise the sense in making Natural Gas the core strategy of UK energy provision over the next few decades, it can never be a final policy. First off, we need rather more in terms of realistic support for the deployment of renewable electricity. People complained about onshore wind turbines, so the UK Government got into offshore wind turbines, and now they’re complaining at how expensive they are. Then they botched solar photovoltaics policy. What a palaver !

Besides a much stronger direction for increasing renewable electricity, we need to recognise that renewable resources of gas need to be developed, starting now. We need to be ready to displace fossil gas as the fossil gas fields show signs of depletion and yet global demand and growth still show strength. We need to recognise that renewable gas development initiatives need consistent central government financial and enabling policy support. We need to recognise that even with the development of renewable gas, supplies of gas as a whole may yet peak – and so we need to acknowledge that we can never fully decarbonise the energy networks unless we find ways to apply energy conservation and energy efficiency into all energy use – and that this currently conflicts with the business model for most energy companies – to sell as much energy as possible. We need mandates for insulation, efficient fossil fuel use – such as Combined Heat and Power (CHP) and efficient grids, appliances and energy distribution. Since energy is mostly privately owned and privately administered, energy conservation is the hardest task of all, and this will take heroic efforts at all levels of society to implement.

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Gas in the UK (2)

…Continued from https://www.joabbess.com/2012/06/12/gas-in-the-uk/

Questions from the floor

[Tony Glover]

…increasing electricification of heat and transport. I was interested in what Doug said about heat. [If energy conservation measures are significant and there is] a significant reduction in gas use for heat…interested in the Minister’s response.

[Terry ? (Member of PRASEG)]

I’m interested in gas that would need CCS [Carbon Capture and Storage] [in future] …[since there would be no restriction there would be an] incentive to build new gas in next few years away from CCS-usable infrastructure. Maybe encouraging gas stations over next few years to be built in view of CCS.

[ ? ]

[There have been mentions of the] Gas [generation] Strategy and gas storage. Is it your intention to have both in the Energy Bill ? [Need to improve investor confidence.]

[Charles Hendry MP] I’m more confident than Doug on CHP…[in respect of energy conservation we will begin to increase our use of] CHP [Combined Heat and Power], geothermal energy, don’t need District Heating. I think we’ll see more people switch to electric heating. The likely pricing on gas will mean people have to look at other sources – such as localised heat storage, intelligent ways to produce hot water and heat in their homes […for example, a technology to store heat for several days…] The first [new gas power] plants will be where they are already consented – where originally coal plants – need to have identified in advance – no new plant is consented unless…We’ve asked Ofgem to ask re securing gas supplies. If we can stretch out the tail of North Sea gas – can stretch it out 30 – 40 years […] technology […] Centrica / Norway […] develop contracts […] Is there a role for strategic storage [Centrica asking] […] Buying and selling at the wrong price (like the gold) [widespread chuckling in the room]. Some of it may not need legislation. Gas Strategy will be published before the Energy Bill.

[David Cox] Get very nervous about gas storage. Don’t think there’s a need to put financial incentives in place to increase gas storage. We think the hybrid gas market is successful – a market and regulatory framework – [gas storage incentives] could damage.

[Doug Parr] I’m not downbeat because I want to be downbeat on heat. [Of all the solutions proposed none of them show] scaleability, deliverability. I’d love that to come true – but will it ? […] Heat pumps ? Biogas is great but is it really going to replace all that gas ? If we’re going to be using gas we need to make the best use of it […] Issues around new plant / replacement – all about reducing risks no exposing ourselves to [it] – security of supply, climate risks, issues about placement [siting of new plant]. If CCS can really be made to work – it’s a no-brainer – do we want all that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or … ? Our entire policy becomes dependent on a technology that hasn’t even been demonstrated. Other technologies that people thought were great – years later they still haven’t arrived [for example, rooftop wind turbines]. If we say CCS is the only way it’s going to work – what’s Plan B ? We are going to use [fossil fuels] – should not become wholly dependent on technology not yet demonstrated.

[Alan Whitehead] Perhaps people should be asked – which would you prefer – a CHP / DH [Combined Heat and Power / District Heating] plant in the valley here, or a couple of wind turbines on that hill ? That would [shake things up].

Questions from the floor

[ X ? ] See […] as the ultimate destination. Most important – gas can be made zero carbon – not pie in the sky. 1. Start contributions of carbon-neutral gas and 2. will need far less if [we act] like Japan – force installation of microCHP. Their aim is to do same as for washing machines [bring prices down – make widely available for the home]. MicroCHP [with] heat pumps – reduction as good as decarbonising gas or electricity. But can also decarbonise gas.

[ X ? ] The Minister mentioned the importance of CHP but recently dropped […] mandate. If CHP so important what measures is the Government taking to ensure its installation ?

[ X ? ] Electricity is a rubbish fuel for heating buildings – very peaky load – need something cheap to store, cheap to […]. Fits very well with forcing down demand. Where we’re getting our gas from. At the moment our waste is being incinerated. For a cheap additional cost, where currently incinerating we can do anaerobic digestion [AD], producing a fungible asset – the gas – can gradually decarbonise our grid.

[ Thomas Grier ? ] …a decision [?] of London – CHP in London over the next few years. If we want to use electricity for heat, we need to reinforce the electricity grid [by 60% to 90% ?] In rural situations – use electrical heating. In urban, use decarbonised energy. [This model projection] shows the gas grid disappearing – it will collapse at some point if all we have on the gas grid is cooking.

[ X ? ] …[encouraged CHP then a few days later] stood up then said all support [removed ?] for CHP next year. A Heat Strategy that said there is enormous [scope / potential] for CHP. We want to see gas, we want to see efficiency. Are we moving towards […] without it they won’t build it.

[David Cox] Microgeneration – couldn’t get it down economically. Reliability [issues]. Full supporter of biogas – AD got a contribution to make – but never more than 5% – no matter how much [we crack it]. Electricity is not very good for heating – but how to we decarbonise the heat sector ? Always been an advocate of CHP. Government need to do more incentivising of that.

[Charles Hendry MP] Innovation and invention […] Government can’t support all emerging technologies. Best brains around the world [are working on] how we move fundamentally in a low carbon direction. On the waste hierarchy – burning of waste should be the final stage – finding a better use for it. [I visited] the biggest AD plant in Europe in Manchester – biogas and electricity generation. We are seeing Local Authorities taking a more constructive long-term view on how to manage waste. CHP – we all want to see more of it – to what extent does it need support ? That depends on whether new build – building a community around it. [By comparison, urban retrofitting is probably too expensive] Iceland [took the decision and] retrofitted almost every home – I’m now more convinced than before. What is the right level of subsidy and what makes good economic case ?

[Doug] We do keep missing opportunities. [For example in Wales, Milford Haven, the new Combined Cycle Gas Turbine at the Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) refinery to process the gas] should have been CHP. I am enthusiastic about lots of heat technologies [but the same questions/issues apply] scaleability and deliverability. District heating [DH] – an infrastructure asset ! [Can change priorities about what gets built – for example in Denmark (?)] they’re building large-scale solar farms to top up the DH. In the Treasury’s infrastructure plan [see DH could be…] Heat is the poor relation in energy debate. Other networks have been identified in the National Policy Statements (NPS) – but not heat.

[ Leonie Green, Renewable Energy Association ] [I must] defend heat pumps. In Sweden 90% of new builds [hav e heat pumps ?] – heat pump efficiency is a function of the energy-efficiency of the building […] Just on AD – National Grid report said it could provide 50% [of the nation’s supply. Our members think] that’s a bit too high – we think 25%. My question is really about the benefits. We are hearing anxiety about costs, but it’s piecemeal on benefits. We’ve been strong on jobs, balance of trade, exports [all benefits of renewable energy investment and deployment]. Pleased to see DECC put out [report from] Oxford Economics [on the] wider economic benefits. How can we get more and more balance in reports. [An example] Deutsche Bank renewable generation opportunities.

[ ? ] We would also support more than 5% from renewable gas – also about hydrogen – we used to do it when it was town gas – why not again ? As regards injecting biomethane/biogas from AD into the National Grid [last year ? to this year ?] 130 enquiries to connect AD to our network – none have progressed. Please sort these [registrations] out.

[ ? ] Minister, we’re not expecting you to fund all technologies – we need some logic – especially with transport. The Government doesn’t recognise the difference between Renewable Natural Gas if used in transport and fossil fuels. Would be simple – a tax on gas if used in a vehicle. What’s the problem over […] ?

[Colin Snape, University of Nottingham] We are looking at reducing the costs of carbon capture – we have a section of PhDs… One other gas source not mentioned – gas from underground gasification of coal [UCG]. In UK […] 2 billion tonners of coal – slightly offshore – on the energy coast of the UK – where all the action is on CCS – obviously UCG needs to be coupled with CCS to be carbon neutral. Would [be operational] in a very short time period […incentives…]. Significant proportion of UK needs.

[ ? ] What is the purpose of the Gas Strategy ? Shale gas isn’t a miracle. The “Golden Age of Gas” [report by the International Energy Agency (IEA)] doesn’t mean cheap gas, because [it will be put to] lots of uses. Renewable electricity and nuclear are not going to come until the 2020s. How do we avoid building loads of gas generation that is not necessary after that time ? What’s the role of mothballing (relatively cheap to bring CCGT out of mothballs comparing to build new). No sign of reduction in electricity demand reduction – therefore there will be high gas use.

[ Doug Parr ] On UCG, the IEA had two scenarios in the “Golden Age of Gas” – both took us over 3.5 degrees Celsius [in additional global warming]. Even if there is unconventional gas sources, still a huge danger of going down the road of unrestrained gas use. What is the alternative ? We should not end up becoming dependent on gas. Should not build gas to fill a short-term hole – they will lobby for their own interests – to keep open.

[ David Cox ] CCGTs won’t be built without guarantees greater than 20 years. Also renewable energy might not provide in the way that we hope. The CCC report – what caused the rise in energy prices ? The wholesale gas price – not renewable energy, green policies. However, that was slightly dishonest – the counter-factual was […] renewable energy significantly still more expensive than fossil fuel there. Until we can get costs of renewable energy down to the prices of fossil fuels… [The industry] don’t give the impression [they will build] on the basis of short-term need. Gas isn’t clean, I admit that […] CCS – that will work.

[Charles Hendry MP] A lot comes back to a need for a balanced approach – carbon targets and security of supply. If you haven’t sorted out security of supply, the electorate will not give permission to go low carbon. Gas is a hedging fuel currently but don’t know where costs going over time. As a politician, I like pipelines – know where it’s going (not like LNG, where there was limited use of new LNG import plant). If we want Scandinavian gas, we need security of demand to build the new pipeline. How we deal with issues of biomethane – in 2 years – need to make more progress. Some of these [techologies] will be gamechangers – some, look back in a couple of years… [Need a] permissive framework to allow a lot of ideas and technologies. There is no source of energy that hasn’t required subsidy in early days. Fanciful to suggest new forms of energy can come through without support. The letters we get [from the public, from constituents] are on vehicle fuel costs, not how much their gas bill went up last winter…

Official end of meeting

A gaggle of people gathered in the hallway to discuss some items further.

The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) was generally criticised – as it contains measures likely to specifically benefit nuclear power. Electricite de France was identified as very involved. The Government had said “no nuclear subsidy”, but the EMR measures are equivalent to hidden subsidies.

The Levy Cap was criticised as it would disturb investor confidence – if several nuclear reactors came on-stream in 10 years time, in the same year, they would eat up the whole subsidy budget for that year – and other technologies would lose out. If was felt that a number of the EMR proposals were “blunt instruments”, not overcoming shortcomings of former levies and subsidies.

Although the EMR was designed to addressed economic fears, it wasn’t assisting with financing risks – if anything it was adding to them. Rates of return have to be guaranteed for loans to be made – chopping and changing subsidies doesn’t allow for that.

Leonie Green said that the REA members don’t like the Premium Feed-in-Tariff (FiT). She also said later that they were not pleased about the cuts in support for AD.

Since my personal interest is in using Renewable Gas of various sources (including Biomethane / Biogas) to displace Natural Gas from the gas grid, I spoke with various people about this informally (including a woman I met on the train on my way home – who really got the argument about decarbonising gas by developing Renewable Gas, and using that to store excess renewable electricity, and use it as backup for renewable electricity. Although she did say “it won’t be done if it won’t confer benefits”.). One of the key elements for developing Renewable Gas is to create a stream of Renewable Hydrogen, produced in a range of ways. Somebody asked me what the driver would be for progress in Renewable Hydrogen production ? I said the “pull” was supposed to be the fabled “Hydrogen Economy” for transport, but that this isn’t really happening. I said the need for increased sources of renewably-sourced gas will become progressively clear – perhaps within a decade.

One of the persons present talked about how they think the Government is now coming out of the nuclear dream world – how only a few of the proposed new reactors will get built in the next decade – and how the Government now need to come up with a more realistic scenario.

It was mentioned that is appears that the Biogas technologies are going to have the same treatment as solar photovoltaics – some sort of subsidies at the start – which get cut away far too early – before it can stand on its own two feet. This was said to be the result of an underlying theory that only a fixed amount of money should be used on launching each new technology – with no thought to continuity problems – especially as regards investment and loan structures.

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Renewable Gas : An Introduction


Image shows capped Victorian gas light wall fitting next to a modern electric standard lamp.

Gas fuels are, and will continue to be, important in global energy, despite the projected exponential rise in renewable electricity generation from solar and wind power. Natural Gas has a far lower carbon dioxide emissions profile than coal or oil, and is providing increasing amounts of heat, light and power to industrialised countries. Gas may be regarded as competition to renewable energy, but in fact, gas of different kinds will be an enabler of the renewable energy future, filling in the sawtooth gaps in variable renewable electricity generation, and providing essential transport fuels.
Traditional methods of producing energy gas include mining and pumping the Earth’s fossil fuel resources. The good quality, easily accessible gas is coming to an end, and so-called “unconventional” sources are beginning to be exploited – gas locked in dense sediment and strata, in shales, coal seams and deepwater seabeds. To make energy takes energy, and unconventional gas fuels are becoming more costly to produce. Since the expense of going after poorer density, more inaccessible resources could become prohibitive, exploitation of gas from under the ground will most likely gradually be usurped by methods of making gas fuels above ground. These will need to be from sustainable resources, and so lighter-than-air fuels of the future will be Renewable Gas.

To dig deeper into how important gas is, here’s a little data disclosure on my personal home energy consumption, leaving out food, goods and transport – much of which is virtually Zero Carbon :-

May 2012 Household Domestic Utility Energy Consumption
Natural Gas 137.3 kWh
Electricity 54.0 kWh
Water 5.2 kWh (estimate for 2.4 m3 water from Thames Water)

May 2012 Household Domestic Utility Energy Production
Electricity 293.2 kWh (home photovoltaic generation)
Biomethane 1.8 kWh (estimate for 2.4 m3 sewage digested by Thames Water)

For the first time since having the solar electricity panels fitted, my house has become a net energy producer. The house was already producing more electricity than it used in March 2012, but the thing that kept it a net energy consumer was Natural Gas consumption – mostly used for space heating.

The house used less than half the Natural Gas in March than it did in February or January, but the solar power generated was much less then than it is now – owing to the season – and so did not overtake gas demand. Hopefully now, the house will remain a net energy producer until November.

Two things can be drawn from looking at all the data – first that energy consumption swings can be significant from season to season – and secondly that Natural Gas use is by far the largest part of energy consumption for most of the year. In fact, Natural Gas use is an order of magnitude larger than electricity in winter, even when some of the localised space heating is electrical.

I have taken measures to reduce my space heating needs, such as only using the gas central heating when critical, and keeping the thermostat at 17 degrees C when it’s on, and installing various kinds of insulation and draught exclusion. Thermal adjustment of the home is an ongoing process of improvement, but despite all my efforts, gas use is still ten times higher in the cold months than all the power consumption. On the other hand, in the warm months, I sometimes use less gas energy than electricity.

I aim to change some of the home gas appliances to electrical power, in order to further reduce my dependence on gas. However, even though I have a green electricity account, some of my power will still be coming from gas-fired power stations. Plus, it could be argued that my burning gas to heat water is more efficient than using electricity, because of the losses of conversion in the power supply grid system. Heating by electricity is almost certainly less efficient – which is why I must continue to insulate my home further. Of note, my domestic production of energy will not ever match winter consumption without utilising a new resource, as solar insolation is at its ebb then, and so moving away from gas to power will perhaps take me farther away from an overall balance between energy supply and demand.

Until the United Kingdom is powered entirely by green electricity and given comfort by insulation and green heating and cooling, we will continue to be dependent on gas fuels, not just because of the variable nature of renewable energy, which gas backs up, but because it will take time to convert everything that can be converted from gas to power. This is especially important in the field of transport, where the first conversion will need to be from oil-refined fuels to gas-refined fuels as a first stage – as replacing all the vehicles with electric drive models will take a gargantuan effort, and much economic turnover.

The importance of gas fuels in the next few decades during the green energy transition means that it is worthwhile to develop sustainable Renewable Gas supplies, particularly considering that once developed they can continue to be of use long into the future.

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It’s got to be gas

Public Enemy Number One in energy terms has got to be burning coal to generate electricity. Although the use of some coal for domestic heating to supplement varying supplies of biomass in home stoves is going to continue to be very useful, using coal for power production is wasteful, toxic and high carbon.

Public Enemy Number Two in energy terms is nuclear power – a weight round our collective neck. Costly to build, costly to underwrite, costly to decommission: although its proponents claim it as a low carbon solution, even they admit the management of nuclear power can be polluting, risky and wasteful.

Public Energy Number Three in energy terms has to be the incredible amount of water required to keep the first two enemies in operation. Climate change is already altering the patterns of rainfall, both in geographical areas and in seasons. Any energy solutions that don’t require water supplies will be preferable.

Many environmental researchers oppose a growing dependence on Natural Gas for power generation in industrialised countries – they claim it will lock in carbon emissions production without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS). Carbon Capture and Storage is way off in the never-never land at present, so it should not be factored in to analyses of carbon management. Ignoring CCS, it can be seen that substituting in Natural Gas power generation where coal has been the principal fuel is in fact a very good way to lower greenhouse gas emissions in the near term.

Natural Gas is not forever, not even with environmentally-ensured unconventional production, such as shale gas. Yet the Natural Gas infrastructure is highly important for developed and some parts of developing countries too. If we can re-imagine the future of gas, making gas fuels renewable, the already existing distribution of gas and appliances and equipment that use it, become a valuable asset.

The climate change crisis is an energy crisis. My position is that we need three vital things to solve this energy crisis : rationalised energy, renewable electricity and Renewable Gas. My key projection is that a 100% renewable energy world is possible, and in fact, inevitable, and to get from here to there we need to use gas fuels, but they need to become progressively renewable in order to meet the climate change crisis.

Natural Gas can not only be a “bridge fuel”. Supporting its use now, on the understanding that it will be replaced by Renewable Gas in the medium term, will enable links to be made between society and the energy industry, and break down the barricades between those who are against high carbon energy and those who sell high carbon energy.