Category: Carbon Pricing

Categories
Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture British Biogas British Sea Power Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Demoticratica Design Matters Direction of Travel Efficiency is King Energy Change Energy Revival Feel Gooder Gamechanger Gas Storage Geogingerneering Green Investment Green Power Low Carbon Life Major Shift National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Realistic Models Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Solar Sunrise Solution City Stirring Stuff Technofix The Power of Intention The Price of Gas The Price of Oil Wind of Fortune

Energy Together : I’m just getting warmed up

The human race – we have to solve energy together. And to do that, we need to harness all our personal, purposeful, positive energies, and let me tell you, personally, I feel electric – and I’m only just getting warmed up.

So let’s hear less of the nonsense from authoritatively-accredited people who want to put a dampener on green energy, who say that saving energy cannot, simply cannot be done, sigh, sigh, sigh, collective groan. We have so much energy together, we can do this.

We have the will power, the staying power, the investment power, and we will navigate the obstacles in our path.

Let’s not waste any more time on expensive trinkets, and iddy-biddy fancies with high unit costs and low compatibility to the future. Yes, I’m talking nuclear power. I’m talking the nobody-really-wants-to-do-it-and-nobody-thinks-it-can-be-cheap-enough-to-work-at-scale Carbon Capture and Storage. And yes, I’m talking carbon markets – tell me again, where are they now ? Oh yes, still in the starting blocks.

And don’t even start to talk about pricing carbon to me – in this world of rollercoaster, highly volatile energy prices, what on Earth could costing or taxing carbon actually achieve ? And fusion power ? Nah, mate, forget it. It’s been 50 years away for the last 50 years.

Shale gas, oil from shales, tar sands, coal bed methane collection and underground coal gasification are once-abandoned messy ideas from way back. They’re still messy, and they’re still retro, and they’re not going to get us anywhere. If the United States of America want to completely ruin their lithosphere, well, that’s up to them, but don’t come around here toxifying our aquifers and poisoning our European trees !

What we need is marine energy, geothermal energy, hydropower, solar power, wind power, and Renewable Gas, because gaseous fuels are so flexible and store-able and can come from many, many processes. And we need the next optimistic generation of leaders to push through the administration ceiling and get green energy policy really rolling, attracting all the green investment will.

If I were a power plant, I would be cranking out the current and making everything shine very, very brightly just now.

Categories
Academic Freedom Be Prepared Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Big Society Burning Money Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Climate Chaos Climate Damages Coal Hell Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Delay and Deny Demoticratica Design Matters Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Eating & Drinking Economic Implosion Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Denial Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Environmental Howzat Evil Opposition Extreme Weather Faithful God Feed the World Feel Gooder Financiers of the Apocalypse Food Insecurity Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Fuel Poverty Global Heating Global Singeing Global Warming Green Investment Growth Paradigm Hide the Incline Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Incalculable Disaster Low Carbon Life Mass Propaganda Media Money Sings National Energy Near-Natural Disaster No Pressure Not In My Name Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Emissions Peak Oil Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Resource Curse Revolving Door Social Capital Social Change Social Democracy Solar Sunrise Solution City Stop War Technofix Technological Fallacy Technomess The Data The Power of Intention Unqualified Opinion Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Vote Loser Wasted Resource Western Hedge Wind of Fortune Zero Net

Obey the Future

Disobedience only gets you so far. Resistance can be fertile, but intellectual ghettos can be futile. The human tendency to generalise creates too much negativity and prevents us from being constructive. We complain about the “evil” oil and gas companies; the “greedy” coal merchants and their “lying” bankster financiers; but refuse to see the diamonds in the mud.

We should obey the future. In the future, all people will respect each other. There will no longer be war propaganda carried by the media, demonising leaders of foreign countries, or scorn for opposing political parties. In the future, human beings will respect and have regard for other human beings. So we should live that future, live that value, have care for one another. I don’t mean we are obliged to give money to charity to help needy people in poor countries. I don’t mean we should campaign for our government to commit funds to the Climate Finance initiatives, whose aim is to support adaptation to climate chaos in developing countries. No, charity is not enough, and never matches the need. Philanthropy will not answer climate change, and so solutions need to be built into the infrastructure of the global economy, sewn into the design, woven into the fabric. There should be no manufacture, no trade, no form of consumption that does not take account of the climate change impacts on the poor, and on the rich, on ecosystems, on ourselves.

Yes, it’s true that corporations are destroying the biosphere, but we cannot take a step back, grimace and point fingers of blame, for we are all involved in the eco-destructive economy. We are all hooked on dirty energy and polluting trade, and it’s hard to change this. It’s especially hard for oil, gas and coal companies to change track – they have investors and shareholders, and they are obliged to maintain the value in their business, and keep making profits. Yes, they should stop avoiding their responsibilities to the future. Yes, they should stop telling the rest of us to implement carbon taxation or carbon trading. They know that a comprehensive carbon price can never be established, that’s why they tell us to do it. It’s a technique of avoidance. But gathering climate storms, and accumulating unsolved climate damages, are leading the world’s energy corporations to think carefully of the risks of business as usual. How can the governments and society of the world help the energy companies to evolve ? Is more regulation needed ? And if so, what kind of political energy would be required to bring this about ? The United Nations climate change process is broken, there is no framework or treaty at hand, and the climate change social movement has stopped growing, so there is no longer any democratic pressure on the energy production companies and countries to change.

Many climate change activists talk of fear and frustration – the futility of their efforts. They are trapped into the analysis that teaches that greed and deceit are all around them. Yet change is inevitable, and the future is coming to us today, and all is quite possibly full of light. Where is this river of hope, this conduit of shining progress ? Where, this organised intention of good ?

We have to celebrate the dull. Change is frequently not very exciting. Behind the scenes, policy people, democratic leaders, social engineers, corporate managers, are pushing towards the Zero Carbon future reality. They push and pull in the areas open to them, appropriate to their roles, their paid functions. Whole rafts of national and regional policy is wedded to making better use of energy, using less energy overall, displacing carbon energy from all economic sectors.

And then there’s the progressive politics. Every leader who knows the shape of the future should strive to be a Van Jones, or a Jenny Jones, any green-tinged Jones you can think of. We should enquire of our political leaders and our public activists what flavour of environmental ecology they espouse. We should demand green policies in every party, expect clean energy support from every faction. We should not only vote progressive, we should promote future-thinking authority in all spheres of social management – a future of deeper mutual respect, of leaner economy, of cleaner energy.

The future will be tough. In fact, the future is flowing to us faster than ever, and we need resilience in the face of assured destructive change – in environment and in economy. To develop resilience we need to forgo negativity and embrace positivity. So I ask you – don’t just be anti-coal, be pro-wind, pro-solar and pro-energy conservation. Where leaders emerge from the companies and organisations that do so much harm, celebrate them and their vision of a brighter, better, lower carbon future. Where administrations take the trouble to manage their energy use, and improve their efficiency in the use of resources, applaud them, and load them with accolades. Awards may be trite, but praise can encourage better behaviour, create exemplars, inspire goodly competition. Let us encourage the people with good influence in every organisation, institution and corporation. Change is afoot, and people with genuine power are walking confidently to a more wholesome future.

Protect your soul. Don’t get locked into the rejection of evil, but hold fast to what is good. Do not conform to the patterns of this world, but be transformed by the renewing of your minds. Be strong for goodness, even as you turn your back on a life of grime.

Live the Zero Carbon future, and make it come as soon as it can.

Continue reading “Obey the Future”
Categories
Bait & Switch Big Picture Burning Money Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Delay and Deny Demoticratica Disturbing Trends Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Insecurity Engineering Marvel Environmental Howzat Feed the World Financiers of the Apocalypse Food Insecurity Foreign Interference Foreign Investment Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Landslide Mass Propaganda Media Near-Natural Disaster No Blood For Oil Not In My Name Nudge & Budge Obamawatch Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Oil Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Public Relations Pure Hollywood Resource Wards Revolving Door Shale Game Sustainable Deferment Tarred Sands Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow Technomess The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The Price of Oil Toxic Hazard Unconventional Foul Ungreen Development Unnatural Gas Vote Loser Water Wars Western Hedge

Tillerson Talks It Down

Rex Tillerson, Chief Executive Officer of ExxonMobil, was recently invited to talk to the Council on Foreign Relations in the United States of America, as part of their series on CEOs.

His “on the record” briefing was uploaded to YouTube almost immediately as he made a number of very interesting comments.

Reactions were mixed.

The thing most commented upon was his handwaving away the significance of climate change – a little change here, a little change over there and you could almost see the traditional magician’s fez here – shazam – nothing to worry about.

In amongst all the online furore about this, was discussion of his continued Membership of the Church of Oil Cornucopia – he must have mentioned the word “technology” about seventy-five times in fifteen minutes. He clearly believes, as do his shareholders and management board, that his oil company can continue to get progressively more of the black stuff out of tar sands, oil shales or oil-bearing shale sediments and ever-tighter locked-in not naturally outgassing “natural” gas out of gas shales. At least in Northern America.

As numerous commentators with a background in Economics have claimed, well, the price of oil is rising, and that creates a market for dirtier, harder-to-reach oil. Obviously. But missing from their Law of Supply and Demand is an analysis of how oil prices are actually determined in the real world. It’s certainly not a free market – there are numerous factors that control the price of the end-product, gasoline, not least state sponsorship of industries, either through direct subsidies, or through the support of dependent industries such as car manufacture. At least in North America.

In the background, there is ongoing shuttle diplomacy between the major western economies and the assortment of regimes in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) who still have the world’s largest pool of cleaner-ish petroleum under their feet. That, naturally, has an impact on supply and pricing : even though the strength of this bonding is not as tight-fast as it historically was, there appears to have been more of it since around 2005. Or at least, that’s when I first started monitoring it consciously.

In addition to that, there are only a limited number of players in the oil industry. It is almost impossible to break into the sector without an obscene amount of capital, and exceedingly good buddy-type relationships with everybody else in the field – including sheikhs you formerly knew from when you attended specialty schools. So, no, the market in oil is not free in any sense. It is rigged – if you’ll excuse the pun.

And then there’s foundational reasons why oil prices are artificial – and may not cause a boom in the “unconventional” production that Rex Tillerson is so excited about (in a rancher-down-the-farm kind of way). Oil is still fundamental to the global economy. In fact, the price of oil underpins most business, as oil is still dominant in the transportation of goods and commodities. Despite all the techno-wizardry, it is fundamentally more costly to drill for fossil fuels in shale, than from pressure wells where oil just gloops out of the ground if you stick a pipe in.

It’s not the drilling that’s the major factor – so the technology is not the main driver of the cost. It’s the put-up, take-down costs – the costs of erecting the infrastructure for a well, or putting underground shale heating or fracturing equipment in place, and the cleaning up afterwards. Some of the technologies used to mine shales for oil use an incredible amount of water, and this all needs to be processed, unless you don’t mind desecrating large swathes of sub-tropical scenery. Or Canada.

The price of oil production has a knock-on effect, including on the very markets that underpin oil production – so increasing oil prices have a cyclic forcing effect – upwards. It also has an impact on the prices of other essential things, such as food. One can see a parallel rise in the price of oil and the price of staple crops in the last few years – and the spiralling cost of grain wheat, rice and corn maize is not all down to climate change.

Oil companies are in a quandary – they need to have higher oil prices to justify their unconventional oil operations – and they also need good relationships with governments, who know they cannot get re-elected if too many people blame them for rising costs of living. Plus, there’s the global security factor – several dozen countries already have economies close to bust because of the cost of oil imports. There are many reasons to keep oil prices depressed.

Let’s ask that subtle, delicate question : why did Rex Tillerson espouse the attitudes he did when asked to go on the record ? Why belittle the effects of climate change ? The answer is partly to soothe the minds of American investors, (and MENA investors in America). If such a powerful player in the energy sector believes “we can adapt to that” about climate change, clearly behind-the-scenes he will be lobbying against excessive carbon pricing or taxation with the American federal administration.

And why be so confident that technology can keep the oil flowing, and make up for the cracks appearing in conventional supply chains by a frenzy of shale works ? Well, logically, he’s got to encourage shareholder confidence, and also government confidence, that his industry can continue to deliver. But, let’s just surmise that before he was shunted onto the stage in June, he’d had a little pre-briefing with some government officials. They would be advising him to show high levels of satisfaction with unconventional oil production growth (in America) – after all, this would act against the rollercoaster of panic buying and panic selling in futures contracts that has hit the oil markets in recent months.

So Rex Tillerson is pushed awkwardly to centre stage. Global production of oil ? No problem ! It’s at record highs (if we massage the data), and likely to get even better. At least in America. For a while. But hey, there’s no chance of oil production declining – it’s important to stress that. If everyone can be convinced to believe that there’s a veritable river of oil, for the forseeable future, then oil prices will stay reasonable, and we can all carry on as we are. Nothing will crash or burn. Except the climate.

Rex Tillerson’s interview on global (American) oil production may have been used to achieve several propaganda aims – but the key one, it seems to me, was to talk down the price of oil. Of course, this will have a knock-on effect on how much unconventional oil is affordable and accessible, and maybe precipitate a real peak in oil production – just the thing he’s denying. But keeping the price of oil within a reasonable operating range is more important than Rex Tillerson’s impact on the American Presidential elections, or even Rex Tillerson’s legacy.

Categories
Advertise Freely Be Prepared Behaviour Changeling Big Number Big Picture Big Society Burning Money Carbon Army Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Dead End Deal Breakers Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Divide & Rule Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Disenfranchisement Energy Insecurity Energy Nix Energy Revival Energy Socialism Feel Gooder Financiers of the Apocalypse Freemarketeering Fuel Poverty Gamechanger Green Investment Growth Paradigm Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Insulation Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Money Sings National Energy National Power No Pressure Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Peak Energy Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Public Relations Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Social Democracy Solution City Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technomess The Power of Intention Voluntary Behaviour Change Vote Loser Wasted Resource

Will the Green Deal Deliver ? (2)

Here is the second part of the transcription from the notes I took this morning in a seminar in the UK House of Commons. The meeting was convened by PRASEG, the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group.

This transcription is based on an unverified long-hand paper-based recording of the words spoken. Items in quotation marks are fairly accurate verbatim quotations. Items in square brackets are interpolation, or explanation, and not the exact language the person used to present their thoughts.

Here are the papers supplied at the start of the meeting :  A B C D E F

CONTINUED…

[AW] How it [the Green Deal] hits the ground matters…

[Joanne Wade, Independent Consultant, UKERC]
The Green Deal is a very useful framework – a move to encourage people to pay for their own energy efficiency. The finance offering may be interesting to some. The quality [of the workmanship ? Guarantees under the Green Deal ?] is “utterly vital”. I don’t think it’s quite there. Outlining four areas (1) How the Green Deal engages (2) The low cost finance (3) Generally mainstreaming energy efficiency in peoples’ minds and (4) Fuel Poverty.

(1) Most people don’t care if they have energy efficiency [in their homes]. If we were really serious about this [our appeal would be along the lines of] you can’t sell a car with brakes that don’t work, but you can sell a house that kills you. [I just wanted to get that in up-front]. Nobody’s really cracked this yet [the messaging] is [still only] “reaching the usual suspects”. Trust is vital. Salience is key. We want people to understand this is not an add-on to all the other things they do. Community-based organisations fit the bill [we tend to trust these groups as members]. [We need to be asking] how does the Green Deal work with that ? The Green Deal providers – small to medium sized enterprises (SMEs) want to use their own brand – they are very good at marketing [and will be good at marketing the Green Deal as well]. But will that be enough to convince people ? The Assessments [that people will get at the start of the Green Deal process] will be detailed on what they can do. Some people are concerned about how much energy they use. Is that enough to go from a standing start to […] ? Are enough people going to be committed enough by the time [Green Deal is available] ? What I think we need – to prime people to be ready to accept [the Green Deal]. [The message would be] appropriate to come from local community groups. The Government is hoping for it – but no real drivers. There are examples – but how are they going to be copied ? The CERT / CES(P) results show that Local Authorities are key. Now that National Indicators 186 and 187 [From the Performance Framework – annual reporting requirements of direct and indirect emissions as a result of Local Authority operations] have been cut – there is no driver. The amount of attention has dropped. [Local Authorities are facing other problems] reducing staff and budgets.

(2) Access to low-cost finance. [The work to make this available from the Green Investment Bank is going ahead but] what about other soruces – for example mortgage providers ? In Switzerland for example, they are lending 114 billion euro every year to homeowners at low interest rates. We need to look at how to convince people. In Switzerland, people will pay more for energy efficient homes. The Green Deal needs to accept alternative forms of finance. Need to be able to access ECO [Energy Company Obligation – part of the Energy Bill – obligation energy suppliers to supply not only energy, but energy services such as energy efficiency and energy conservation] providers. We don’t know if the market will deliver [there are already grants/finance in this sector that people are not using].

(3) Can’t see the Green Deal mainstreaming. My builder – I did an [extension] and asked for 50% extra insulation and LED [Light Emitting Diodes – a very energy efficient form of lighting] – he thought I was slightly mad but now recommends LED lighting on all builds. Here’s the Green Deal. He would say – “Why should I tell people about that ?” Typical small builder. It should be that whenever anyone is doing a refurbishment they should just do it [extra insulation etc] – and so we’re back to [the big R] – regulation. [But look at the public outcry when the media considered] consequential improvements [the “Conservatory Tax”]. [Energy efficiency] “We need to make it the thing that people do.”

(4) Fuel Poverty. The money that can be coming through the ECO is £ 350 million per year (before VAT). Let’s not kid ourselves – the householders in fuel poverty are not going to take Green Deal finance. [The Climate Change Committee says] £4 billion a year is what we need to tackle fuel poverty. The Government needs to make sure that Green Deal finance is available the fuel poor (in an appropriate form) (overcoming the small potential).

[Alan Whitehead MP] How to address the LED enthusiast who isn’t a Green Deal enthusiast ? Helping “Jeff” [representative small builder in a sketch by the Secretary of State ?] getting sorted out – taking him from a sceptic to an advocate.

[Nigel Banks, Head of Energy and Sustainable Solutions, Keepmoat]

There are glass half empty people and glass half full. How can we be filling the glass ? Retrofitting communities via the Green Deal ? We do a lot of community regeneration – we’ve build [some of the] Zero Carbon homes. We renovate rather than demolish and rebuild. We get through to RP [registered providers of social housing] and Local Authorities. There has been the “boom and bust” of FiT [solar photovoltaic feed-in tariff] – Local Authorities are reticent to get involved [with the Green Deal].

With solid wall insulation [SW] we need to take up a gap. Currently, 80,000 per year are being driven by CES(P) – 94% of these are external wall. Under the Green Deal only 10,000 are projected next year – major concern.

How many measures meet the Green Deal ? The Golden Rule [the rule o Green Deal finance that the loans should come at no extra cost to the householder because the repayments are balanced by energy savings] ? [With some solid wall insulation, meeting the Golden Rule is easy, but…]

Problems with the Green Deal include : [no Green Deal finance generally available ?]. The cooling off period of 20 – 28 days. People now expect their insulation for free. How many [of the institutions of surveyors including] RICS [will value] properties with Green Deal ?

ECO is a big target – at least £540 million per year for affordable warmth. [However, this does not compare with what we have been able to offer up to now] – entire streets – entire communities [upgraded] for free at the moment – easier than under the Green Deal.

The £200 million cashback [is welcome]. Some of the Green Deal pilot schemes have been positive. It should be able to unlock private landlords [to making energy efficiency retrofits].

The Green Deal [is currently appropriate only to] a small proportion of society – it is vital to apply through communities – churches and so on – and it can tackle long-term unemployment problems.

The Green Deal [is not going to achieve major change] on its own.

[David Robson, Managing Director, InstaGroup] We do insulation, represent over 100 SMEs. How can we make the Green Deal work ? Provide employment in local communities ? 15 years of history of energy efficiency : in the early 1990s – no funding – we were doing 300,000 installs a year. Now we are doing 500,000 this year. “If anyone says subsidies haven’t worked, it’s not true.” It has got money out onto the ground quickly. The Green Deal has huge potential – removes capital barriers pre- energy efficiency [measures] – ome of the more expensive things are covered – anyone can access low cost finance – as long as it [the Green Deal] is given an opportunity to work. It also creates a framework to cover the non-domestic sector – and [landlord-owned] private domestic sector also. The Government…. [the Green Deal is] not ready. “Whatever any politician says, the legal framework is not in place until January next year.” The insulation installers and other companies are feeling they are being told “if you want to lead on the Green Deal, take it on your [own] balance sheet.” Everyone wants the Green Deal to work. We’ve invested. Our system is in place. The work we put into Green Deal finance – low cost – we think it’s important – the lower we can keep the costs of it. “If we can’t keep it [the Green Deal finance loan interest rate] below 6% we as an industry have failed.” The Green Deal is going to take time to build. Solid wall insulation – takes time to develop this industry. Hugely innovative concept. The man on the street will take some convincing “Will I be able to sell my house ?” [But] we can’t even give away insulation at the moment – then convincing people to borrow… 2013 is a real issue – how you bridge that cliff edge. Could [limit] the Green Deal getting off the ground. “For the Green Deal to be effective it needs to take the [energy efficiency] industry with it.” Small businesses are looking to us to guide them through the Green Deal. They can’t survive 6 months of losing money. Need to have some more continuity. The Green Deal does need something to help it through the transition process. How is the Green Deal good ? A robust framework. Belief in the Golden Rule – sacrosanct. Trying to sell the Green Deal will be a challenge for all of us. The Green Deal is very much underpinned by the ECO – but if the ECO is the only thing pushing, the Green Deal won’t work – constrained by the amount of money available. Regulation is key. If consumers are given sufficient time to do things it’s OK. Low cost finance is key. Access to low rates has to be competitive or the biggest players will take all the low cost finance. I’m concerned about a continuing level of political will. Generally the media are coming on-side over the Green Deal – but you only need to look at the media coverage of “consequential improvements”… It’s important that the Government recognise concerns about the Green Deal – [coming] from people who do want it to work.

[Alan Whitehead MP] Nice chance – ought to look at carbon taxes for the future – declaring part of that “tax foregone” and use that for the Carbon Reduction Commitment [CRC] : taking from the EU ETS [European Union Emissions Trading Scheme revenue] and the carbon floor price and using that to underpin the Green Deal – get that finance interest level down – a proper green tax – taxing bads and rewarding goods. “There can be no more good than making sure that everyone’s house is energy efficient” That’s all solved.

QUESTIONS FROM THE FLOOR

[Terry ? David Hunt, Eco Environments] Concerned that microgeneration is not to benefit. Concerned about companies self-marketing – as there have been misleading advertising (such as solar photovoltaic [PV] installers advertising old FiT rates). They should not mislead the public. Regulation – compared to the MCS scheme [all solar PV installers have to be registered for MCS] but still seen some awful installs. As soon as things get sold and are bad – this leads to media stories and a loss of confidence.

[Tim ? Tony Smith, Pilkington Glass] The statutory instrument that relates to double glazing and other measures – I’m looking for sunshine on a very gloomy day – double glazing in [some cases] will get no help from the Golden Rule [some discussion about the ratings of windows and replacement windows] – reduces the attraction to our industry in terms of reducing carbon emissions.

[ X from “London Doctoral Training Centre”] Homeowners… [The success of the Green Deal is] down to how people use their homes. No-one’s talked about education and how installers talk to householders…

[ X from Association for the Conservation of Energy] I’d like to hear the panel’s views on DG TAX [the European Commission Directorate Generale on Tax matters for the European Union] that the 5% VAT rate under the Green Deal is not compliant.

[Tracy Vegro] For the 5% VAT rate, “we are ready to defend that” – as it impacts on our ability to offer other options. It’s weird since we’ve just signed a very strong [European Community] Energy Efficiency Directive. Behaviour change – that’s vital. The [Green Deal loan] Assessment will require heating controls turned down and relevant behaviour. Effectively, you’re not going to pay the interest on the loan if you change your behaviour and you will see the savings increase over time. The “conversion rate” [from Green Deal pilot schemes] was 98% “saved more than I thought” – community projects. The Ombudsman will be able to strike off poor installers. “The Consumer Protection on the Green Deal is the highest in the market.” Stringent. “If it’s proved we’re too draconian, it will come down.” [Re the question from Pilkington] You are slightly misinterpreting – this is not a barrier to that [kind of upgrade to windows] – it depends on the state of the property [for example the carbon saved is less if going from an F to and E than…] It may just be your interpretation – happy to go over that with you.

[David Robson] The MCS based accreditation is only checked once a year – a real issue. The hardest thing about MCS is – is your paperwork in order ? Not if you can do the job…

[Joanne Wade] The conversation about energy use – how to get people involved. We need more messaging – this is what this really is. If all levels of government [do the messaging] more effective.

[John Sinfield] The Minister mentioned turning up the heating and hoovering [vacuuming] in your underpants. The industry is responsible to [address that in the] owner’s manual. This is how you need to treat your house differently. The tax issue – madness. If the HMRC can’t do it [convince the EC/EU] then ignore them.

[Nigel Banks] Behaviour change is vital. The Green Deal providers who don’t put that in their package will come unstuck. Not as confident about carding [system of accreditation based on individual trades persons by trade] [not relevant to your particular skill] [skill specific ?]

[Alan Whitehead] I assume the Minister meant thermal underwear.

[Colin Hines, Green New Deal Group] Trust [is important] when the finance people are having fits over FiTs. What [are you] trying to do to the market ? Is the Green Investment Bank going to kick up some money for the Green Deal ? What about the drop in the Impact Assessment from £10 billion to £ 5 billion for the Green Deal [some confusion about what this refers to]

[Roger Webb, The Heating and Hotwater Industry Council] How do we bring “Jeff” to the party ? We are keen to see heating as part of the Green Deal. There are 90,000 small tradesmen working for 60,000 small companies. Will they think the Green Deal is rubbish ? They are the leads for the Green Deal – they need training. We need to incentivise them. A voucher scheme ? Use a little of the £200 million… I really welcome the work and [interest in] bringing microgeneration [?] business into the scheme.

[Neil Marshall, National Insulation Association] Regarding solid wall insulation – the IWI / CWI confusion [Internal Wall Insulation, Cavity Wall Insulation] – what solution is proposed for hard-to-treat cavities ? The hard-to-treats we are not able to do for another year. Need to drive more cavities and lofts. The Committee on Climate Change [CCC] have reported on a need for additional incentives outside the Green Deal – driving the uptake of the Green Deal – talk of incentives and fiscals. Gap-filling. The Green Deal [should be able to cover] able-to-pay loft insulation installations, able-to-pay cavity wall insulation, hard-to-treat cavities and solid wall insulation. If we are doing 1 million in 2012 under CERT / CES(P)…if there is no Green Deal finance we can’t sell anything [after 2012]. “There is a critical need for a transitional arrangement.” We have had high level discussions with DECC that have been very useful…

[ X from Honeywell ? ] The in-situ factors. [For example, father [in law] isn’t going to replace his boiler because the payback will be after he’s dead]. Multiple length of payback [period] for any measure that’s put in – old antiquated evaluation tool. The householder asks what’s in it for them [what they can put some energy into doing] – is the longer payback [period] less attractive ?

[ X from “Shah” ? ] Not much on solar / microgeneration. [Will the Green Deal become certified ?]

[Nigel Banks] How do we do Green Deal for a boiler ? On 3rd January [2013] will the big energy companies do it themselves ? Some measures won’t perform as predicted.

[John Sinfield] “If the Green Investment Bank doesn’t provide finance for the Green Deal we are in a world of hurt”. We need to engage with “Jeff” the trusted installed. The Government needs to drive consequential improvements through – if you have a new boiler, you will have wall insulation [crazy otherwise, as all that heat will be lost through the walls]. Not seeing where my £ 1 million invested in solid wall solutions is going now. The job is not done [cavities and lofts].

[Tracy Vegro] A lot of Local Authorities don’t distinguish between good debt and bad – money is there for them – but they aren’t borrowing to invest. We are retaining HECA [Home Energy Conservation Act]. [Mentions poor opinion about the Green Investment Bank] – talking the “jib” [GIB] down. The biggest risk is the lack of confidence in the Green Deal. [Working on the terms of the] Green Deal Finance Companies [GDFC] – still see if…. [Important to take the attitude of] not talking it down. If another equity slice [is added…] We are a broad church – open to new entrants. Most work will be done [under the Green Deal] – most retrofits. [With the ActonCO2 and other Government paid communications campaigns on climate change and energy efficiency] We didn’t really get the message across – our millions spent [on advertising and public relations]. [We will] do better – more and more things will meet the Golden Rule. Come and meet our scientists.

[David Robson] Heating – a huge opportunity – not a loan with British Gas – the boiler you want – add on solar [with a Green Deal loan] linking creatively.

[ X from ? ] [Brings up the thorny problem of which technologies and measures are possible under the Green Deal’s Golden Rule] 45 points [of requirements] to meet criteria. In the future, what technologies will be viable ?

[Tracy Vegro] The RHI [Renewable Heat Incentive] is not eligible – does not meet the [Golden] Rule.

[Further exchanges – becoming somewhat stressed]

[Alan Whitehead MP] Just as things were getting exciting…[we have to close] an interesting period over the next 18 months.

Categories
Be Prepared Behaviour Changeling Big Society Burning Money Carbon Army Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Demoticratica Design Matters Direction of Travel Economic Implosion Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Socialism Financiers of the Apocalypse Foreign Investment Freemarketeering Fuel Poverty Global Heating Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Insulation Low Carbon Life Major Shift National Energy Optimistic Generation Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Revolving Door Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Social Democracy Solution City The Data The Power of Intention Voluntary Behaviour Change

Will the Green Deal Deliver ?

Here is a transcription of part of the notes I took this morning in a seminar in the UK House of Commons. The meeting was convened by PRASEG, the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group.

This transcription is based on an unverified long-hand paper-based recording of the words spoken. Items in quotation marks are fairly accurate verbatim quotations. Items in square brackets are interpolation, and not the exact language the person used to present their thoughts.

[Alan Whitehead MP]
Will the Green Deal deliver ? In the last few days, in 140 character statements [Twitter], the Government have been telling has “all the hurdles have now been overcome.” But “is it really all systems go ?” What effect do we think the Green Deal will have on sustainability ? On carbon reduction goals ? Tracy Vegro from the Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) has been key in setting up the Green Deal.

[Tracy Vegro, DECC, Director, Green Deal]
“It’s been a busy old time for us.” We are in the final stages of passing the framework [of the Green Deal]. Just have the laws now [the legislation that is needed]. Those orders will come into force in October [2012]. There will be some parallel working – not a switch to the Green Deal all at once. I think it will open up a wider market in energy efficiency. We’ve been getting out and about [for the consultation process] – a women’s panel, an industry panel. We did it with an awful lot of help. “We’ve got to get energy efficiency moving in this country.” The CERT [Carbon Emissions Reduction Target – an energy supplier obligation] at the end of this year there will be “not an unlagged loft” [internal roof insulation over the top of ceilings]. There have been some gaps – with solid wall insulation numbers for example. “Whole swathes got nothing under CERT.” We have to to start delivering. I hope the Green Deal will drive it – with many more entrants into the [energy efficiency] market. Our roadshows with small businesses were encouraging. Beyond the framework we are trying to ensure a lot of choice. The Green Deal is going to have accredited goods and services in the whole thing. The [Office of Fair Trading] has been doing research to ensure [quality and competence] – “because at the end of the day it’s the bill payer who’s paying”. There’s a new oversight body. There will be a lot more data [coming back]. You know under the CERT, 300 million energy efficient lightbulbs were distributed [and we don’t know where they all went and whether they were all used]. We need to build confidence. Have the Local Authorities get behind the Green Deal assessments [process], and [capitalised on] community aspects. [We hope/aim to] see the market grow much faster. So far we can see that a lot of cavities got filled but [that’s only the beginning]. [We hope/aim that the Green Deal will be] driving demand. People will see their neighbours do this [and want to do it for themselves.] There’s the £200 million incentive scheme – that’s money in the bank. [Need to drive] confidence [not having people saying it’s just the] new FiT [Feed-in Tariff scheme – intended to drive solar photovoltaic uptake, but poorly managed]. The Green Deal is going to be conditional on minimum energy efficiency standards being undertaken [by those taking up the offer]. [This will determine] the order in which you do these [energy efficiency] technologies – “we need to get energy efficiency into peoples’ heads” – [where they may have been deterred previously by] mostly upfront capital. We have a new helpline. We need to make it a “no-brainer solution”. How are we going to ensure training ? People will be coming out of loft and cavity wall insulation into a new sector. These are asset skills, and a lot of money is committed. to funding [re]training and assessors. There are implications on people in existing roles – but “this is a finite market”. We’re confident in this business model – for the first time there will be competition – not just the Big 6 [energy companies : British Gas, Electricite de France (EdF), E.On, npower, Scottish Power (Business), Scottish & Southern (SSE) – companies that collectively supply 99% of the UK’s heating and lighting] delivering. It is slightly easier to explain [than other schemes]. We do need an awareness campaign – people in the industry don’t want this – they want to do their own communications to customers – to ensure demand is right. The [big] energy companies are to be mandated a lot. If the scheme is ECO (Energy Company Obligation) only – it would only guarantee a steady state [no growth in uptake of energy efficiency products]. The Impact Assessment has only been done for pure Green Deal.

[John Sinfield, Managing Director, Knauf Insulation]
CERT helped, but there is still a huge amount to deliver – need to approach the market in a different way. The deep retrofit of our housing stock – the only way to deal with Fuel Poverty and other problems. My early reaction to the Green Deal was hope, excitement, and confusion, followed by more confusion. It could deliver what no scheme has done before to 14 million homes [untouched so far]. We have to deal with the fabric [of the building] first – then deal with the occupant. The occupant is sometimes the barrier to energy efficiency. Could we use private money to leverage 20 times the amount put forward [for the Green Deal and Green Investment Bank] ? We could stop shifting 40 billion euro to the Middle East (and elsewhere) for our energy. Can we create ethical investment for pension funds ? Then I got to depression and confusion. In the draft Impact Asssessment, there would be a 93% drop in loft insulation installations and 73% drop in cavity wall insulations from Day One of the Green Deal. What’s going to happen to existing companies ? [I obviously have an interest here] I’ve invested in four factories. But it’s not only me, the Climate Change Committee (CCC) wrote to Government on the trajectory resulting not meeting our carbon cap. It’s not just insulation manufacturers and installers. I’m trying to understand where the policy’s going. Why are DECC against cheaper measures ? The Minister says that the “loft job” is nearly done. But DECC themselves say that 9 million lofts have inadequte insulation. Frankly, I doubt I’ll see that by the the end of the year. There are 7.5 million cavities to fill. The consultation on the Green Deal came back with good changes – but little to address the cliff edge – the significant drop in lofts and cavities [at the changeover to the Green Deal]. I’m veering between hope and despair. I hope the Government, deep down, really want this. They need to do more to drive this programme. I wouldn’t invest money if I didn’t think [they were really behind this.] What about other options ? Stamp Duty [on sale of properties], a carbon tax, a Local Authority mandate ? If the Government can drive the value of the Green Deal up – it makes it more attractive [to engage in the sector]. My hope is balanced off by a sense of despair – the mechanism will not be ready in time. The so-called “soft launch” of the Green Deal [is inadequate] – really has to be up and running by 1st January [2013]. The Green Deal loans have to have affordable interest rates. The Green Deal finance company is 9 months away from offering comprehensive finance – and how are they going to receive the money from the Green Investment Bank ? If the interest rate of the Green Deal loans are 7.5% (6% – 8%) then only 7% of the population will take them up. Where’s the market ? What’s going to drive the market ? Where we are challenged – the Green Deal doesn’t feel ready. The environment to work within – sorted. But the mechanism – for example the Green Deal finance – not ready. Need to bridge the gap. Do we need to extend the CERT / CES(P) (Community Energy Saving Programme) ? A bridge until a competitive rate of interest is available. If the Government is going to drive the deep retrofit, it needs to drive the take up. Putting in place the framework is not going to sell this scheme. Some [companies] here are ready to market this scheme – but all parts need to be there. If the Green Deal is not ready – when ?

Alan Whitehead MP
“So, an amber light there…”

Categories
Big Society Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Demoticratica Efficiency is King Energy Disenfranchisement Energy Socialism Feel Gooder Fuel Poverty Green Investment Human Nurture Low Carbon Life Mass Propaganda Nudge & Budge Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas

The Energy Bill Revolution

This is a story about jaded doubt, through which shines a skinny, pale, wavering ray of hope – a tale of ordinary folk not believing Government policy will “work”, yet trying to make the best of the poor situation all the same. This is the account of a Parliamentary Reception for The Energy Bill Revolution.
The nice young man with the thoroughly Welsh name, Rhys Williams, who’s been in the job for the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group (PRASEG) for a sum total of 10 working days, if I’ve counted that right, sent me a shiny email invitation to a Summer Reception in The House of Commons, organised by the All Party Parliamentary Fuel Poverty & Energy Efficiency Group (FPEEG) and PRASEG. So orf I trotted to a feast of miniature canapes covered with dead things and a veritable sea of state-provisioned wine – which I didn’t touch a drip of. It was Summer, and very sunny and hot, and nationally-funded alcohol would have given me a migraine.

I took in the cool breeze of The Thames from the Terrace Pavilion – it seemed at high tide as there was lots of debris sloopily bobbing past. A Good Year blimp buzzed like a jar of wasps overhead – “Safety Together”, it read. I questioned, as a matter of national security, whether anything was supposed to be flying directly over the Houses of Parliament. It was pointed out to me that the wind was quite strong up there and the dirigible motors probably couldn’t keep it on a straight course over the river. Whilst I was supping my iced orange juice, I was buttonholed by Jimmy Devlin of the North West Tenants and Residents Assembly. We discussed a number of things, including : revolution (he thinks people are going to rise up and get their share, and I think people are too poor and busy to get political); fuel poverty and carbon savings (I agree with him that carbon taxation is going to create extra expenses for the poor, but I disagree with him over climate change, because I’ve studied the science); non-hierarchical community leadership (the old models are failing) and Freemasonry in the Police (he’s ex). We did agree that democracy is suffering from a lack of engagement, and that social breakdown in some cases is becoming violent. We also agreed that it seems that the Occupy movement has been infested or even misdirected (he said fragmented) by covert agents of the state. He indicated that a number of former environmental activists that he’s known are now strongly protagonist for the social justice agenda. He became scathing about UK Government policy on renewable energy, saying that it was astonishing that it had been recently announced that all subsidies for wind power and solar power would be gone by 2020.

Anyway, then we were both buttonholed by Geoffrey Beacon of Beacon Dodsworth. He’d been earwigging, and he wanted to know why I was against carbon pricing and taxation. I said, well, carbon dioxide is a virtual, negative commodity that nobody wants to pay for, so it will always get paid by the most vulnerable – so we would be better spending money in a positive, economy-stimulating way, such as investing in renewable energy and energy conservation. He said that a carbon tax of £400 per tonne would do the trick. I said that carbon will never be permitted to be priced at £400 a tonne – there are too many forces against it.

Well then, before any further debate could take place we were called in for the speeches. Up at the podium is Alan Whitehead MP. He says he’s not going to give a speech, but then outlines his support for the campaign in a number of points, which he then admits was rather like a speech, in fact, and then introduces Caroline Lucas MP (everybody has to keep biting their lips to stop themselves from saying “Leader of the Green Party”). As usual, Caroline cuts the situation down to the bones – the social elements of the Energy Bill are going to be the Green Deal (cheap loans for householders to do energy efficiency and renewable energy, financed by the new partly state-funded Green Investment Bank) and the Energy Company Obligation (ECO – an obligation on energy companies to enable transformation of “hard to treat properties” and provide affordable warmth, which will be funded out of energy consumers’ bills).

She said that the ECO Carbon Saving Obligation (CSO) will quite probably benefit rich property owners – and yet be paid for by bill increases for the poor.

Next up was Dr Hilary Emery, Chief Executive Officer of the National Children’s Bureau (NCB), and she talked about the impact of fuel poverty on the young poor – as this is not often mentioned – whereas older people in fuel poverty often are. She said it wasn’t right that people have to choose between “eat” and “heat”. She invited two children from the NCB to speak – they were amazing.

Then we got to hear from Adam Scorer of Consumer Focus. He said that the Carbon Price Floor proposed for the Energy Bill (Electricity Market Reform) was “not my favourite choice of policy”, but that with the extra billions of revenue it could generate, a lot could be done to truly tackle Fuel Poverty.

Then, up last, was “Mr Energy Bill Revolution” Ed Matthew, who tried not to be too technical, but laid out a vision of energy efficiency being the basis on which the British economy could be resurrected – through addressing energy cost increases and providing employment. Ah, the sweet smell of new jobs.

I spoke to Adam Scorer after the speeches, and tried to clarify what he meant by showing distaste for the Carbon Floor Price proposals. I asked how realistic it was to ask the Government to give up all that juicy carbon revenue to social projects – given that a range of organisations and causes will be after the same pot of money – including the nuclear power bunch. He said that everything is impossible until it happens – and that despite support, the Energy Bill Revolution could be blocked so easily by a “Treasury says no” statement. He did say though, that without “wilful bloodyminded individuals” like Ed Matthew, “nothing would ever happen”.

I spoke to Ed Matthew – ex Friends of the Earth, and now with his own group Transform UK. He’s done some stuff on the Green Investment Bank and now he’s pushing the Energy Bill Revolution. We agreed that if we’re going to have carbon taxation or pricing of some sort, then we do need to make sure that we speak up for using at least some of this money for Fuel Poverty alleviation. With approximately (depending on how you count it) 11.5 million people in poverty (and approximately 2.5 million children), putting a carbon tax or price in place will only hurt the poor harder by increasing energy costs. There needs to be a mechanism that stops this from depressing economic activity any further than it is already squelched – a mechanism to address energy demand, create jobs and solve social issues is what’s required. He said that if there’s no carbon price floor, we would have to rely on revenue from the Emissions Trading Scheme – which will fluctuate more – and jeopardise investment confidence. We should be demanding carbon revenue for the right purposes – there’s a report they did with Cambridge Econometrics saying the same kind of thing.

I then went on to speak with people from Carillion – who were quite sceptical about the Green Deal – that many people could be ripped off by the fact that there will be multiple agencies involved in any one project – with each firm wishing to do their own assessments and possibly doing work the householders don’t need. The view was expressed that what needs to happen is that the Government stops wasting money on consultations, reports and consultancy and just invests in energy efficiency and energy conservation projects directly. We discussed how Local Authorities are expected to be handling the social aspects of the new Energy Bill – but that with shrinking budgets and ever-smaller staffing, energy conservation – such things as the Green Deal and fuel-saving Combined Heat and Power projects – are likely to never make it off the ground.

I went on to speak to Karen Klomp, Energy Strategy Officer at the London Borough of Lambeth. We discussed the primeval problem – that energy companies want to sell as much energy as they can, whilst climate change legislation requires effectively (until renewable energy is more prevalent) that total energy demand is reduced. We talked about which energy companies are evolving into Energy Service Companies (ESCOs) – which are training their own insulation, draught-proofing and renewable energy installers, and which are contracting this out (with all the problems this could entail).

I took the opportunity to mention to her that I am researching Renewable Gas (whilst being in the in-between phase of having completed a Masters degree and now wondering what to do with the rest of my life). I said I’m about to launch a survey to engineering and energy firms asking them about how much Renewable Gas they are making, and the trends. I said I was trying to raise this subject because some people are discussing the upcoming UK Government “Gas Strategy”. We disussed where gas in the UK economy is going to come from in future.

She spoke of various projects she is running – how they are trying to make the best use of various schemes and grants before they run out. She projected that she would be selling the idea of the benefits of the Green Deal to her local authority and related organisations. She and I agreed that policy as a whole was quite weak and compromised – but that this is what we’ve got to work with – so we need to run with it (or ice-skate – she is originally from The Netherlands, after all).

As I was leaving, I exchanged a wave and a nod with Jim Devlin. I asked him what he was going to do to promote the Energy Bill Revolution and his answer was : “wind 6.8 million residents up – and let them do the work”.

This is the briefing from The Energy Bill Revolution :-

“Families are suffering huge financial hardship, and one in four households can’t afford to heat their homes. Cold homes are damaging the health of our most vulnerable citizens, including children and older people. The Energy Bill Revolution is an alliance of more than 80 children’s charities, environment groups, unions, health & disability groups, consumer groups and businesses, calling on the Government to use the money it gets from carbon taxes to make our homes super-energy efficient. This is the only permanent solution to end fuel poverty and drive down energy bills. The Energy Bill Revolution could quadruple carbon emission savings compared to the Government’s new energy efficiency policies, and create up to 200,000 more jobs – exactly what we need to support the UK’s economic recovery.”

I am fully aware that this campaign could have been launched by Coalition empathisers to prop up the Energy Bill – which is widely being criticised (Greg Barker MP was supposed to attend but I don’t think I saw him. Maybe he was avoiding me. However, Chris Huhne MP did flit past at one point, and I saw John Prescott MP (with a walking stick) on the baize-green carpet stairs on the way out.)

Considering that some of the people in the room supporting the Energy Bill Revolution campaign could stand to benefit from the success of the Green Investment Bank, their motives might not be entirely charitable.

On the other hand, Fuel Poverty is a genuine social need, and addressing it could avoid people being driven further into deprivation. So, despite the fact that I think carbon pricing and taxation is entirely the wrong thing to do (instead we should invest positively in renewables and conservation), if this is the card we are dealt in the Energy Bill, then I think we should definitely “hypothecate” some of the revenue towards the alleviation of economic depression – for the sake of the kids.

More of a grudging acceptance to work with what we’re given rather than a “revolution”, though.

Categories
Academic Freedom Alchemical Assets not Liabilities Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Corporate Pressure Design Matters Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Drive Train Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Engineering Marvel Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Gas Storage Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Hydrogen Economy Low Carbon Life Major Shift Methane Management Money Sings National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Coal Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Shale Game Solution City Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The Price of Gas The War on Error Unconventional Foul Unnatural Gas Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Wasted Resource Zero Net

Gas in the UK (2)

…Continued from https://www.joabbess.com/2012/06/12/gas-in-the-uk/

Questions from the floor

[Tony Glover]

…increasing electricification of heat and transport. I was interested in what Doug said about heat. [If energy conservation measures are significant and there is] a significant reduction in gas use for heat…interested in the Minister’s response.

[Terry ? (Member of PRASEG)]

I’m interested in gas that would need CCS [Carbon Capture and Storage] [in future] …[since there would be no restriction there would be an] incentive to build new gas in next few years away from CCS-usable infrastructure. Maybe encouraging gas stations over next few years to be built in view of CCS.

[ ? ]

[There have been mentions of the] Gas [generation] Strategy and gas storage. Is it your intention to have both in the Energy Bill ? [Need to improve investor confidence.]

[Charles Hendry MP] I’m more confident than Doug on CHP…[in respect of energy conservation we will begin to increase our use of] CHP [Combined Heat and Power], geothermal energy, don’t need District Heating. I think we’ll see more people switch to electric heating. The likely pricing on gas will mean people have to look at other sources – such as localised heat storage, intelligent ways to produce hot water and heat in their homes […for example, a technology to store heat for several days…] The first [new gas power] plants will be where they are already consented – where originally coal plants – need to have identified in advance – no new plant is consented unless…We’ve asked Ofgem to ask re securing gas supplies. If we can stretch out the tail of North Sea gas – can stretch it out 30 – 40 years […] technology […] Centrica / Norway […] develop contracts […] Is there a role for strategic storage [Centrica asking] […] Buying and selling at the wrong price (like the gold) [widespread chuckling in the room]. Some of it may not need legislation. Gas Strategy will be published before the Energy Bill.

[David Cox] Get very nervous about gas storage. Don’t think there’s a need to put financial incentives in place to increase gas storage. We think the hybrid gas market is successful – a market and regulatory framework – [gas storage incentives] could damage.

[Doug Parr] I’m not downbeat because I want to be downbeat on heat. [Of all the solutions proposed none of them show] scaleability, deliverability. I’d love that to come true – but will it ? […] Heat pumps ? Biogas is great but is it really going to replace all that gas ? If we’re going to be using gas we need to make the best use of it […] Issues around new plant / replacement – all about reducing risks no exposing ourselves to [it] – security of supply, climate risks, issues about placement [siting of new plant]. If CCS can really be made to work – it’s a no-brainer – do we want all that carbon dioxide in the atmosphere or … ? Our entire policy becomes dependent on a technology that hasn’t even been demonstrated. Other technologies that people thought were great – years later they still haven’t arrived [for example, rooftop wind turbines]. If we say CCS is the only way it’s going to work – what’s Plan B ? We are going to use [fossil fuels] – should not become wholly dependent on technology not yet demonstrated.

[Alan Whitehead] Perhaps people should be asked – which would you prefer – a CHP / DH [Combined Heat and Power / District Heating] plant in the valley here, or a couple of wind turbines on that hill ? That would [shake things up].

Questions from the floor

[ X ? ] See […] as the ultimate destination. Most important – gas can be made zero carbon – not pie in the sky. 1. Start contributions of carbon-neutral gas and 2. will need far less if [we act] like Japan – force installation of microCHP. Their aim is to do same as for washing machines [bring prices down – make widely available for the home]. MicroCHP [with] heat pumps – reduction as good as decarbonising gas or electricity. But can also decarbonise gas.

[ X ? ] The Minister mentioned the importance of CHP but recently dropped […] mandate. If CHP so important what measures is the Government taking to ensure its installation ?

[ X ? ] Electricity is a rubbish fuel for heating buildings – very peaky load – need something cheap to store, cheap to […]. Fits very well with forcing down demand. Where we’re getting our gas from. At the moment our waste is being incinerated. For a cheap additional cost, where currently incinerating we can do anaerobic digestion [AD], producing a fungible asset – the gas – can gradually decarbonise our grid.

[ Thomas Grier ? ] …a decision [?] of London – CHP in London over the next few years. If we want to use electricity for heat, we need to reinforce the electricity grid [by 60% to 90% ?] In rural situations – use electrical heating. In urban, use decarbonised energy. [This model projection] shows the gas grid disappearing – it will collapse at some point if all we have on the gas grid is cooking.

[ X ? ] …[encouraged CHP then a few days later] stood up then said all support [removed ?] for CHP next year. A Heat Strategy that said there is enormous [scope / potential] for CHP. We want to see gas, we want to see efficiency. Are we moving towards […] without it they won’t build it.

[David Cox] Microgeneration – couldn’t get it down economically. Reliability [issues]. Full supporter of biogas – AD got a contribution to make – but never more than 5% – no matter how much [we crack it]. Electricity is not very good for heating – but how to we decarbonise the heat sector ? Always been an advocate of CHP. Government need to do more incentivising of that.

[Charles Hendry MP] Innovation and invention […] Government can’t support all emerging technologies. Best brains around the world [are working on] how we move fundamentally in a low carbon direction. On the waste hierarchy – burning of waste should be the final stage – finding a better use for it. [I visited] the biggest AD plant in Europe in Manchester – biogas and electricity generation. We are seeing Local Authorities taking a more constructive long-term view on how to manage waste. CHP – we all want to see more of it – to what extent does it need support ? That depends on whether new build – building a community around it. [By comparison, urban retrofitting is probably too expensive] Iceland [took the decision and] retrofitted almost every home – I’m now more convinced than before. What is the right level of subsidy and what makes good economic case ?

[Doug] We do keep missing opportunities. [For example in Wales, Milford Haven, the new Combined Cycle Gas Turbine at the Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) refinery to process the gas] should have been CHP. I am enthusiastic about lots of heat technologies [but the same questions/issues apply] scaleability and deliverability. District heating [DH] – an infrastructure asset ! [Can change priorities about what gets built – for example in Denmark (?)] they’re building large-scale solar farms to top up the DH. In the Treasury’s infrastructure plan [see DH could be…] Heat is the poor relation in energy debate. Other networks have been identified in the National Policy Statements (NPS) – but not heat.

[ Leonie Green, Renewable Energy Association ] [I must] defend heat pumps. In Sweden 90% of new builds [hav e heat pumps ?] – heat pump efficiency is a function of the energy-efficiency of the building […] Just on AD – National Grid report said it could provide 50% [of the nation’s supply. Our members think] that’s a bit too high – we think 25%. My question is really about the benefits. We are hearing anxiety about costs, but it’s piecemeal on benefits. We’ve been strong on jobs, balance of trade, exports [all benefits of renewable energy investment and deployment]. Pleased to see DECC put out [report from] Oxford Economics [on the] wider economic benefits. How can we get more and more balance in reports. [An example] Deutsche Bank renewable generation opportunities.

[ ? ] We would also support more than 5% from renewable gas – also about hydrogen – we used to do it when it was town gas – why not again ? As regards injecting biomethane/biogas from AD into the National Grid [last year ? to this year ?] 130 enquiries to connect AD to our network – none have progressed. Please sort these [registrations] out.

[ ? ] Minister, we’re not expecting you to fund all technologies – we need some logic – especially with transport. The Government doesn’t recognise the difference between Renewable Natural Gas if used in transport and fossil fuels. Would be simple – a tax on gas if used in a vehicle. What’s the problem over […] ?

[Colin Snape, University of Nottingham] We are looking at reducing the costs of carbon capture – we have a section of PhDs… One other gas source not mentioned – gas from underground gasification of coal [UCG]. In UK […] 2 billion tonners of coal – slightly offshore – on the energy coast of the UK – where all the action is on CCS – obviously UCG needs to be coupled with CCS to be carbon neutral. Would [be operational] in a very short time period […incentives…]. Significant proportion of UK needs.

[ ? ] What is the purpose of the Gas Strategy ? Shale gas isn’t a miracle. The “Golden Age of Gas” [report by the International Energy Agency (IEA)] doesn’t mean cheap gas, because [it will be put to] lots of uses. Renewable electricity and nuclear are not going to come until the 2020s. How do we avoid building loads of gas generation that is not necessary after that time ? What’s the role of mothballing (relatively cheap to bring CCGT out of mothballs comparing to build new). No sign of reduction in electricity demand reduction – therefore there will be high gas use.

[ Doug Parr ] On UCG, the IEA had two scenarios in the “Golden Age of Gas” – both took us over 3.5 degrees Celsius [in additional global warming]. Even if there is unconventional gas sources, still a huge danger of going down the road of unrestrained gas use. What is the alternative ? We should not end up becoming dependent on gas. Should not build gas to fill a short-term hole – they will lobby for their own interests – to keep open.

[ David Cox ] CCGTs won’t be built without guarantees greater than 20 years. Also renewable energy might not provide in the way that we hope. The CCC report – what caused the rise in energy prices ? The wholesale gas price – not renewable energy, green policies. However, that was slightly dishonest – the counter-factual was […] renewable energy significantly still more expensive than fossil fuel there. Until we can get costs of renewable energy down to the prices of fossil fuels… [The industry] don’t give the impression [they will build] on the basis of short-term need. Gas isn’t clean, I admit that […] CCS – that will work.

[Charles Hendry MP] A lot comes back to a need for a balanced approach – carbon targets and security of supply. If you haven’t sorted out security of supply, the electorate will not give permission to go low carbon. Gas is a hedging fuel currently but don’t know where costs going over time. As a politician, I like pipelines – know where it’s going (not like LNG, where there was limited use of new LNG import plant). If we want Scandinavian gas, we need security of demand to build the new pipeline. How we deal with issues of biomethane – in 2 years – need to make more progress. Some of these [techologies] will be gamechangers – some, look back in a couple of years… [Need a] permissive framework to allow a lot of ideas and technologies. There is no source of energy that hasn’t required subsidy in early days. Fanciful to suggest new forms of energy can come through without support. The letters we get [from the public, from constituents] are on vehicle fuel costs, not how much their gas bill went up last winter…

Official end of meeting

A gaggle of people gathered in the hallway to discuss some items further.

The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) was generally criticised – as it contains measures likely to specifically benefit nuclear power. Electricite de France was identified as very involved. The Government had said “no nuclear subsidy”, but the EMR measures are equivalent to hidden subsidies.

The Levy Cap was criticised as it would disturb investor confidence – if several nuclear reactors came on-stream in 10 years time, in the same year, they would eat up the whole subsidy budget for that year – and other technologies would lose out. If was felt that a number of the EMR proposals were “blunt instruments”, not overcoming shortcomings of former levies and subsidies.

Although the EMR was designed to addressed economic fears, it wasn’t assisting with financing risks – if anything it was adding to them. Rates of return have to be guaranteed for loans to be made – chopping and changing subsidies doesn’t allow for that.

Leonie Green said that the REA members don’t like the Premium Feed-in-Tariff (FiT). She also said later that they were not pleased about the cuts in support for AD.

Since my personal interest is in using Renewable Gas of various sources (including Biomethane / Biogas) to displace Natural Gas from the gas grid, I spoke with various people about this informally (including a woman I met on the train on my way home – who really got the argument about decarbonising gas by developing Renewable Gas, and using that to store excess renewable electricity, and use it as backup for renewable electricity. Although she did say “it won’t be done if it won’t confer benefits”.). One of the key elements for developing Renewable Gas is to create a stream of Renewable Hydrogen, produced in a range of ways. Somebody asked me what the driver would be for progress in Renewable Hydrogen production ? I said the “pull” was supposed to be the fabled “Hydrogen Economy” for transport, but that this isn’t really happening. I said the need for increased sources of renewably-sourced gas will become progressively clear – perhaps within a decade.

One of the persons present talked about how they think the Government is now coming out of the nuclear dream world – how only a few of the proposed new reactors will get built in the next decade – and how the Government now need to come up with a more realistic scenario.

It was mentioned that is appears that the Biogas technologies are going to have the same treatment as solar photovoltaics – some sort of subsidies at the start – which get cut away far too early – before it can stand on its own two feet. This was said to be the result of an underlying theory that only a fixed amount of money should be used on launching each new technology – with no thought to continuity problems – especially as regards investment and loan structures.

Categories
Academic Freedom Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Coal Hell Cost Effective Design Matters Drive Train Efficiency is King Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Insecurity Engineering Marvel Foreign Interference Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Marvellous Wonderful Methane Management Money Sings National Energy National Power Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Optimistic Generation Peak Coal Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Shale Game Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow The Price of Gas The War on Error Transport of Delight Unnatural Gas Wasted Resource Wind of Fortune Zero Net

Gas in the UK

“The role of gas in the UK’s energy mix” 12 June 2012 17:30 – 18:30, Committee Room 5, House of Commons with speakers Minister of State for Energy and Climate Change, Charles Hendry; David Cox, Managing Director of The Gas Forum and Dr Doug Parr, Chief Scientist of Greenpeace UK. Chaired by Dr Alan Whitehead MP, Chairman of PRASEG, the Parliamentary Renewable and Sustainable Energy Group, who called the seminar : https://www.praseg.org.uk/the-role-of-gas-in-the-uk-energy-mix/

UNVERIFIED COMMENTS : Please check with the speakers to confirm their statements and do not take this account as verbatim.

[Alan Whitehead MP] Questions about gas. Will it be business as usual ? If not – too “much” gas ? What does that mean for Climate Change targets ? New gas generation – about 11 gigawatts coming on-stream in the next 5 years – “grandfathered” (no obligations to control emissions with Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)) throughout the life of the power plant – does produce questions about Climate Change targets – CCS may change that landscape in the medium-term future. Question about emergence of biogas into system [which would bring] a down-trend in emissions.

[David Cox] The wonderful future that gas offers us. Have to look at whole low carbon [framework] – gas has a place. Not a war [between gas and renewable energy technologies]. Both needed [in the advance towards carbon-free] energy. Without gas, not going to make it. Make sure we can afford it. Gas has a role. The recent [International Energy Agency] IEA report on the “Golden Age of Gas” – tight gas, shale gas – has doubled reserves. Nobody knows for sure – there’s so much there. Perhaps 250 years of gas – no shortage of gas [although some of it is in] sensitive areas. Getting it from those areas with political problems. [There are uncertainties about] unconventional gas. There is plenty around the world – “pretty good”. Gas is not at war with renewables. Gas isn’t just a transition fuel – it’s a destination fuel. Got to prove CCS technically. If we can do that gas becomes a destination fuel. Can decarbonise not only electricity. Heat. Heat pumps won’t do it on their own. Sorry. [Gas can help decarbonise] transport – electrify the transport system – that’s what we believe is possible. Hope the Government will support CCS.

[Doug Parr] First and foremost – we are not going to eliminate gas from energy systems any time soon – don’t think of gas as a destination – I would warn against policy that gas is allowed to become the default and become too dependent on gas. A lot of policy on gas – but only over part of the energy system [electricity]. Heat is going to rely on gas fo a long time. If follow the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) logic – [heat is a] strategic sector – to getting away from carbon emissions. If gas is going to be what gets us out of energy problems – the so-called “trilemma” of decarbonisation, security [of supply] and cost. [New gas power plants amount to] 11 gigawatts [GW] over the next 5 years – 120 TWh – a quarter of current gas [still in service] out to 2030. If one take CCC target of 50 gC / KWh (grammes of carbon per kilowatt hour). Look at CCGT [Combined Cycle Gas Turbine gas generation power plant in operation] – that target is a fraction of [current] unabated [CCGT] – not that great. Any substantial role of gas has to make some pretty strong assumptions about CCS. Remember, this is not yet working – let us not have a decarbonisation policy relying heavily on CCS when not at the first stage. The CCC have warned that grandfathering of the 11 GW new generation – emit without restrictions – and issue until 2045. Can’t say gas is somehow the answer to decarbonisation issues. In media – don’t [swallow] the media froth. [As for] security of supply – already going to be quite reliant on gas for heating for quite some time – hard to see [otherwise]. Heavily reliant on imports – around 80%. Where do we import our gas from ? Qatar and Norway mostly. The former head of the Navy argued [recently] changing gas prices is the single most significant factor. DECC [UK Government Department of Energy and Climate Change] recent report on price shock. REA [Renewable Energy Association] said that just by hitting renewables targets would displace £60 billion of imports. [As for] shale gas : both Ofgem research and Deutsche Bank reports that shale gas is very unlikely to help on security [of supply] issue. Citing American example [of shale gas exploitation] is just irrelevant. [So the UK Government must be] supporting gas because of costs ? The biggest rise in consumer bills is from fossil fuel [price increases]. Not renewable energy, not green energy [measures] – it’s the rise in the wholesale gas price. Is that going to stabilise and go down ? Not according to Merrill Lynch and DECC – [strong] prices for Liquid Natural Gas (LNG) and therefore for gas [as a whole, will stay]. Clearly we will be using gas – as [electricity grid load] balancing. What I’m railing about is that gas doesn’t get us out of our energy trilemma. Gas will not [save us]. We know we can deliver through renewable energy, wind – acceleration of new technologies [such as tidal] – perhaps CCS will work, who knows ? and efficient use for example Combined Heat and Power (CHP) on industrial scale. If we are using gas we are using at it’s most efficient.

[Alan Whitehead MP] [recounts tale of how he got into trouble with Twitter commentators when he insisted the recent rise in consumer energy bills was due to the rise in the cost of wholesale gas, not green energy measures] [To Charles Hendry] I’m sure you don’t Tweet.

[Charles Hendry MP] No. absolutely not. I have enough people telling me I’m wrong without… We have to look at the role of gas. It would a dereliction of Government not to look at the role of gas going forward. […mentions developments in gas production…] seismic profiling [enabling better understanding of gas fields] horizontal drilling [improving access to complex fields]. [As for] unconventional gas – the IEA “Golden Age of Gas” – but don’t assume [it’s that simple – supply may go up but] demand for gas is going to go up dramatically. Japan – major user of LNG and diesel. Consequence of Germany’s decision to close nuclear power plants – will use much more gas. China…India…growth rate – massive growth of demand. Anticipate new resources to be found – Iraq for example – but cannot assume [what has happened in the United States of America with the development of shale gas where gas prices are now] a quarter [of what they were] – a massive boost to America – will they allow this to be exported to Asia – or use cheap gas to [relocating] industry back to the USA ? Have to look at implications for us. Reasons why shale gas is different in Europe – legal [situation] – the mineral rights [in the US, these can be acquired from underneath a landowner]. Don’t have the same commercial drives as farmers in the US. The reason why gas prices collapsed in the US and not here – if we saw a price benefit here, it would go out through the [gas] interconnectors [to neighbouring countries]. For real practical reasons won’t see shal gas develop [significantly] here. [It is a] global gamechanger – but… The US is fundamentally shifting from coal to gas – with the implications for emissions. The change from coal to gas was a major driver in European control of emissions [in the 1990s] […] Investment…technology…practical constraints. EdF [Electricite de France] will go ahead with new nuclear [by the end of the year ?] but the plant will not come online until the end of the decade. Major renewable energy resources also in 2020s [not immediate] – the cost of offshore wind power is two times that of onshore. We’re saying to industry to reduce by 40% by the end of the decade – otherwise simply not affordable. Contributions from tidal, CCS ahead. It’s going to be very end of this decade to see if CCS can work. Worrying gap [in power generation between now and next decade]. Megawatts (MW) of coal being turned off in 2015. [Coal plants are] getting through their [legally permitted] generating hours too quickly. By 2023, the only nuclear plant still operational will be Sizewell B. We have to have more gas in the mix. As we look towards more intermittent resources (renewables), gas is an important source of backup. [Will have/need] a capacity mechanism to ensure [optimisation when] mismatch between supply and demand – auction to include gas – could be [North Sea] gas, gas from the interconnectors [from abroad] or demand side response [demand reduction] – a more sophisticated capacity mechanism than historical. I’m more optimistic about CCS [than Doug Parr]. CCS is a requirement. It is something we have to deliver – no scenario I’ve seen where we’re going [to be] using less coal, oil and gas than today. [Out to 2035] our basic needs [will still rely for a good percentage on] fossil fuels. Broadening CCS [demonstration competition] out to pre- and post-combustion on coal – [expand] to gas. Can be applied to gas as well as coal. I think CCS is a fundamentally critical part of this equation. If so, can see gas as a destination fuel. The GW of gas being built in the next few years [some questions] – currently gas is being mothballed [some plants being shut down effectively putting them into disuse] because of [fuel] prices. I consented more in gas and also wind on- and offshore last year. But that gas is not being built. If we want that gas built we need a more coherent strategy. Look at what is necessary to encourage that gas – and carbon emissions [reduction] alongside. EPS [Emissions Performance Standard] […] to stop unabated coal – limit 450 gC / kWh – significant proportion of plant would need CCS. But ddin’t want to disincentivise gas. Have also said a point where CCS on gas will be necessary. But if we had people building gas now and then 15, 20 years later they would have to fit very expensive [CCS] equipment… Volume of gas coming forward meets our supply issues. Over the next few years, grandfathering. If see enough gas coming through can change the mechanism in due course. [We will be] responding officially to the CCC in Autumn. Need to [fully] decarbonise electricity in the course of the 2030s if we want to meet out climate change objectives. I think that [the] reality [is that] gas and important element. Nuclear is important. Want to see significant amount of renewable energy and what Doug is calling for – significant commitment to [energy use] efficiency in the country. [We should concentrate particularly on] energy efficiency.

The meeting then opened up to questions from the floor… To Be Continued

Categories
Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Bad Science Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Big Society Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Environmental Howzat Evil Opposition Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Freak Science Global Heating Global Singeing Global Warming Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Money Sings No Pressure Non-Science Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Pure Hollywood Regulatory Ultimatum Resource Curse Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Screaming Panic Social Capital Social Change Social Chaos Social Democracy Solution City Stirring Stuff Stop War Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow Technomess The Data The Myth of Innovation The Power of Intention The War on Error Toxic Hazard Voluntary Behaviour Change Wasted Resource

This Is My Thesis

I have recently been awarded a postgraduate Master of Science (MSc) degree, and several of my contacts suggested that I might consider studying for the academic qualification of Doctor of Philosophy (PhD). To be awarded a doctorate, I would need to make a valuable contribution to the body of knowledge and achievement in my chosen field. I do not think that paper-based research on its own would count as taking collective human understanding a step further, and so I must consider what forms of theorising, construction, engineering, creation, experimentation, configuration, data collection, analysis and argumentation I would need to make accomplishments in, in order to gain the good review of my peers, and the acceptance of my skill. It is not enough to love Wisdom, she has to be sought out, and introduced to your friends.

My first instinct is collaborative – how can I find a place where I can nurture my learning and strategy, in co-operation with others – where I can find a welcome, and make statements and discoveries that gain me a status, get me recognition ? I want to shine, in order to become useful, to serve my fellow woman and man. I don’t want to be competitive, winning out over others, but be part of a vanguard, a flight formation, spurring each other on to make progress together, striving as a group. I’m not ambitious, except for truth, beauty and good technology. I can share acclaim and I want to bring everybody with me. We can, standing elbow to elbow, vanquish destructive forces.

Yet, this proud, altruistic aim, to be part of the pack of pioneers, to offer something helpful, is marred by reality. Whilst I want to be constructive, others adopt divisiveness, in order to isolate outliers, and clamber over others to win the crown. I must not only reserve my right to speak against the herd, I must also wield it. I am relegated to the Zone of Insignificance, the people whose voices do not count because they articulate criticism. I do not want to join those who act as if they have the only viable formulation of reality – with their patronising stance – offering to host the public conversation, claiming they are at the centre of the debate, whilst at the same time undermining others with clever cynicism and sneering dismissal of those who will not join them.

I cannot be bought, and neither can I be seduced into a false alliance. I will not support meta-narrative, nor other contrivances. But this leaves me conflicted. One of the most significant problems with public discourse on science and technology in relation to resource limits and environmental damage is the persistence of the “anti” lobby – those people who feel bound to continue to be negative about things that have not yet been resolved. Many have been anti-nuclear, anti-fossil fuels, anti-coal, anti-energy companies, anti-Government policy, anti-hijacking of the United Nations process on climate change by economists. These voices, these positions, are important, but do not own the platform, and so they continue to rage. It is impossible to make progress without having something to rally around, to have a positive flag to muster under, but people with genuine influence continue to mis-step in their proposals and policies.

I want to bridge the gaps between the social groupings – I need to – in order to offer a way forward that can put some of the anti-thesis to bed, and galvanise efforts towards real, workable, cost-effective solutions. A genuine peoples movement for progress can accrete consensus, enormous non-hierarchical power, and can even draw in its detractors if it can be seen to be working. I am going to have to step out in faith, and at much risk – for I am going to attempt to join together the direction of the energy sector with the concerns of the environmentalists. I am not going to use a marketing strategy, nor sell a public relations pill to financiers and investment funds. I am not going to paint a green picture that has no details or exists only in a dream world. I am fairly certain that everybody is going to hate me, at least for a while, but in the end, I hope they will see that I am right, as I feel I am not generally mistaken.

Since I expect to be slighted and put down, and for people to work to marginalise me, I do not expect to be adopted by an academic institution or an energy or engineering company in the pursuit of my goals. In fact, I would resist such appropriation, for I am intellectually liberated. So, my work will not be accorded a standard accolade by a respectable institution or corporate body, and in fact, since that is the case, I can choose to work in any way that I see fit. Since, according to many scientists, we do not have much time to gain global assent for workable climate change solutions, as we must have a peak in greenhouse gas emissions in the near term, I cannot measure out five or seven years to complete a body of work which would then be reviewed. Instead, I shall publish in stages, and take peer review, including negative criticism, if any should be offered, as I go.

Although I wish to be practical rather than purely written, I shall not have much access to the funds, laboratories or engineering workshops where I could do the work myself. Instead, I shall have to ask questions of those who are already doing the work I am following, and try to ascertain their progress, and make my recommendations for their advancement. I seek to investigate live uses of the technology and systems I write about – as I expect them to be put to use before I have completed documenting them. My work will therefore be literature, but I want my intelligence to be fully accessible, so I will not use academic forms of composition. I shall write in what I hope is an easy, open way, and provide a mechanism for reply. I am going to offer my work by subscription, and I hope that those who register to receive my report in sections, will participate in making my work better.

The human race needs to be for something, not merely against, in all the myriad multitude of complaints that rise up like evaporating water, or steam from boiling pots, all and every day. However, a false unity, or a crooked one, cannot help us. We need to use what we’ve already got, and only imagine small gains in technological prowess. We should stop believing in public relations and advertising. We should stop being lulled into passivity by those glossing over our concerns, or those outspending logic. We should not give up in the face of overwhelming ineptitude and embedded vested interests. We cannot overhaul everything overnight, and somebody’s got to pay for change, and so they had better be the right changes. We need to be pragmatic, and not overreach, nor over-commit ourselves where technology could fail.

Categories
Be Prepared Big Number Big Picture Big Society Breathe Easy Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Corporate Pressure Delay and Deny Demoticratica Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Global Heating Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Health Impacts Human Nurture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Incalculable Disaster Libertarian Liberalism Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Military Invention Money Sings National Energy National Power No Blood For Oil No Pressure Not In My Name Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peace not War Peak Coal Peak Emissions Peak Energy Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Social Capital Social Change Social Democracy Solution City Stop War The Power of Intention The Price of Oil Toxic Hazard

Moving towards a logical conclusion

Although I consider him to be an enemy of the people by being a key architect of the privatisation of the UK’s National Health Service (NHS), I was delighted to hear Andrew Lansley say this about tobacco sales : “We don’t work in partnership with the tobacco companies because we are trying to arrive at a point where they have no business in this country.” Finally, after over ten years of hard work by a rainbow coalition of healthcare providers, local government administration, campaigners, social activists, educators and charities, it is possible for the UK Secretary of State for Health to tell the tobacco industry their products are not wanted here.

The deep question is : why didn’t the UK Government just ban the tobacco companies outright at the start or tell them to diversify out of selling cancer sticks in order to keep their retail licences ? Well, the simple answer is that companies like British American Tobacco (BAT) are privately-owned capitalised companies, with many pension and other major funds heavily invested. The UK Department of Business, Trade, Enterprise, Industry, Information, Skills, Services and Manufacturing or whatever it’s been variously called over the last few decades, simply couldn’t tell shareholders to pull their investment out of death-by-inhalation stocks.

Everyone sees a return on investment in the industries of death generally, such as the arms trade, the junk food industry, and petrochemicals (ask yourself : how many people have suffered and died because of diesel particulate-provoked asthma ?) It takes a certain amount of time to reach the logical conclusion that wars do not need to be fought, making armaments redundant; for healthy food to become seen as essential to beat off diabetes and obesity epidemics; and for urban transport to be electrified to save lungs and hearts.

No, you just can’t ban an entire product range overnight because, finally, the science has broken through the doubt barrier and shown beyond reasonable scepticism that tobacco smoking causes cancer, emphysema and other serious and fatal conditions. No, you have to go at it step by painful step, reducing availability, changing the rules on presentation at the point of sale, putting up signs in public places.

And it all takes time, this gradualist approach. The tobacco industry may now wind down to a dribble in Britain (although it will continue to do well in Asia and Africa), and peoples’ savings for retirement will have soon all moved out of fag ends into something else.

Yet, we don’t have the luxury of time when it comes to the climate change and energy crisis. We simply don’t have the 25 to 50 years it could take to adopt a gradualist approach to energy sector change. Anything that takes longer than 10 years to begin to displace carbon out of the energy economy is too slow to be useful.

People are slowly beginning to wake up to the fact that their money is invested in climate change, and are making demands on their pension fund and bank account managers – but this is all happening too slowly – despite the keen interest in ethical investment.

The energy sector has got to change – and change fast. Changing the energy sector so radically and so quickly is not something that can be done by applying small changes to the costs of energy – particularly as the wider costs of energy are so volatile anyway. Gradually introducing renewable energy technologies with subsidies and grants and special tax breaks is not going to displace carbon fast enough.

Governments may not like the thought – but maybe they will consider starting to ban things – and not be shy about being explicit. However, this kind of action will generate significant resistance and dissent.

How then to rapidly alter the world’s entire energy sector ?

Start telling the truth about how the energy sector is scraping the bottom of the barrel in a number of fuels and fields ? Could this approach cause a run at the investment bank ? Could it tip the balance in energy systems deployment towards the less-intensive options – green energy – the only possible area of growth in the energy sector – which becomes the only possible logical conclusion ?

Categories
Academic Freedom Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Rationing Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Geogingerneering Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Media Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Gas Solar Sunrise Technofix Technological Sideshow The Power of Intention Unqualified Opinion Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Wind of Fortune

On Being Climate Pragmatic



When it comes to proposals for climate change policy, most studies indicate technological efforts : some, fiscal measures.

Few, if any, really consider the pragmatic likelihood of their proposals being taken up.

I’d like to offer the first in a series of totally made-up statistics to show my view on the likelihood of some of these proposals being implementable (or is that “implementible” ?) and efficacious (effective).

I honestly don’t know why the media continue to discuss and discuss the merits and/or disbenefits of new nuclear power and geoengineering (which includes Carbon Capture and Storage or CCS).

They are not likely to be able to help in the next few decades, and so they might as well not be on the proposals table or board.

Categories
Assets not Liabilities Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Pricing Direction of Travel Dreamworld Economics Electrificandum Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Energy Socialism Fossilised Fuels Major Shift Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Solar Sunrise

Solar FITs and Starts

The British Government’s solar power policy is not really going very well.

Ah well, at least the “nuclear power renaissance” is progressing…err, maybe not :-

“New nuclear electricity costs hit utility ratings – Moody’s : 27 Mar 2012

“Building a nuclear power plant is perceived as risky by credit rating agencies – and in some cases could lead to a ratings downgrade of the utility concerned, a senior analyst at US-based Moody’s told ICIS on Tuesday.”

“The analyst, who wished to remain anonymous, said an unfavourable attitude towards nuclear power stemmed largely from the scale of investment required, together with future uncertainties surrounding power prices.”

Continue reading “Solar FITs and Starts”
Categories
Academic Freedom Advancing Africa Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Climate Damages Conflict of Interest Contraction & Convergence Corporate Pressure Demoticratica Dreamworld Economics Economic Implosion Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Disenfranchisement Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Feel Gooder Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Gamechanger Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Health Impacts Hydrocarbon Hegemony Libertarian Liberalism Low Carbon Life Major Shift Money Sings National Energy National Power Nudge & Budge Oil Change Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Regulatory Ultimatum Solar Sunrise Solution City The Power of Intention The War on Error Western Hedge Wind of Fortune

Academic Freedom #7 : Contraction & Convergence

I think that within a short space of time, it will become admitted, even by Friedman-onomists (and other assorted Freak-onomists) that marginal pricing strategies on high carbon energy are not producing a major shift to a low carbon energy economy.

Nobody wants to buy carbon permits, so they will all duck the quotas, and buck the system.

The prevailing economic conditions, caused by a collapse in wealth and the onset of both climate change and fossil fuel depletion, and their respective impacts on food and energy production, are creating a volatility in the costs of energy – mostly in the buoyancy direction. Which is fine for anybody trading in energy industry stock, but not for the rest of us, and is especially limiting for any attempts to price greenhouse gas emissions.

Policies to create a carbon “market” by implementing varieties of “Cap and Trade”, and the so-called Clean Development Mechanism – a “flexible” approach permitted under Article 12 of the Kyoto Protocol, are showing a residual inefficacy – that means they are failing – an inability to cause widespread change.

That would be OK if we only expect carbon markets to provide some equilibrium in disparate progress towards carbon emissions reduction. If carbon markets were recognised as only being able to enable a small tranche of the overall changes required.

Carbon trading can be a useful mechanism if it’s used as a vehicle for “technology transfer”. By that, I don’t mean selling shale gas technology to China, Oman or Saudi, but creating a flow of useful Renewable Energy technology from industrialised world to under-developed world.

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #7 : Contraction & Convergence”
Categories
Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Big Number Big Picture Big Society Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Climate Damages Coal Hell Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Deal Breakers Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Economic Implosion Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Engineering Marvel Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media National Energy National Power Nudge & Budge Oil Change Optimistic Generation Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Coal Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Protest & Survive Public Relations Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Science Rules Social Capital Social Change Social Democracy Solution City Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy Technological Sideshow The Data The Power of Intention The Price of Gas The Price of Oil The War on Error Ungreen Development Unqualified Opinion Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Vote Loser Zero Net

Academic Freedom #6 : Policy Levers

Image Credit : Taproot

Many scientists express that their aim in their work is to offer a good foundation for Government decision-making. Our gathering and processing of data and evidence is to be offered to the lawmakers to enable them to choose a way forward, and design a strategy to get there. This is a noble ambition – to be a useful servant of the facts (or at least a disciple of statistics with plus and minus margins of error).

However, science is not the only force at work in influencing Government decisions. For a start, Governments change through elections in democracies, and all debate about public policy passes through a narrow ideological gate – where people decide on a very small range of questions that concern them at the time. Election issues are almost always centred around tax and welfare, and elections are often called for the favourite politicians of the moment.

And then there’s the question of which organisations influence elected governments on a day-to-day basis – who has the ear of leaders and their senior staff ? The public relations budget lines of large companies and corporations can be kept trim and tidy – politicians are easy to get access to if you have a lot of capital to invest (or make out that you do).

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #6 : Policy Levers”
Categories
Academic Freedom Alchemical Assets not Liabilities Bait & Switch Biofools British Biogas Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Delay and Deny Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Denial Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Engineering Marvel Fossilised Fuels Geogingerneering Global Warming Green Investment Green Power Hydrocarbon Hegemony Hydrogen Economy Low Carbon Life Major Shift Marvellous Wonderful Mass Propaganda Methane Madness Methane Management National Energy National Power Oil Change Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil Petrolheads Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Public Relations Renewable Gas Renewable Resource Sustainable Deferment Technofix The Power of Intention The War on Error Western Hedge Zero Net

Carbon Captured #2 : Socialising Cost, Privatising Profits


Image Credit : Michael Sterner

Carbon dioxide is a fuel. And I don’t mean plant food.

As petroleum oil and Natural Gas production hit peaks that cannot be surpassed, and the world begins to realise that depletion is inevitable, the world’s energy producers will turn to alternatives, including various forms of fuel and gas made from carbon dioxide, chemically adjusted with hydrogen derived from renewable resources.

It seems to me hypocritical for the large oil and gas companies to pitch for public funds to support their investment in Carbon Capture and Storage. Why ? Because this public funding will get converted into private profits the day they start to pump the carbon dioxide back out of storage to make Renewable Gas.

From a personal perspective, I find the argument for public financing of Carbon Capture and Storage particularly toxic when it is proposed to raise the revenue by placing an artificial price or tax on carbon. This would mean that the taxpaper-consumer pays for the emissions burden of hydrocarbon fossil fuel energy, and then gets to pay again for alternative energy, produced using the stored waste gases that they already paid for.

Charge energy customers twice. What a great bailout for fossil fuels !

I suspect that the only reason that Royal Dutch Shell and BP admit to climate change is so they can push their Carbon Capture and Storage schemes – bid tendering for public subsidy.

Forget the subsidies currently in place around the world for wind and solar power. Global carbon finance pushed at Carbon Capture and Storage will be of a much higher order of expenditure.

If the oil and gas companies want to build Carbon Capture and Storage facilities – let them pay for them themselves. After all, in many cases, they have been able to economically justify them by using carbon dioxide pumping to increase oil production – what’s known as Enhanced Oil Recovery.

Or if they insist on public finance for geo-sequestration of carbon dioxide in Carbon Capture and Storage projects, let them give us the carbon dioxide back for free when we need it for Renewable Gas production in the coming decades.

Categories
Academic Freedom Acid Ocean Advancing Africa Big Society Burning Money Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Revival Financiers of the Apocalypse Foreign Investment Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Geogingerneering Hydrocarbon Hegemony Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil Public Relations Technofix Technological Sideshow

Carbon Captured : The Ultimate Bailout

Image Credit : SCCS

Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) is a collection of actual and proposed technologies to return the carbon dioxide from fossil fuels back underground, or somewhere else where they can stop interfering with the global carbon cycle.

An excess of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere is causing a range of problems, including acid ocean and most seriously, climate change.

Carbon Capture and Storage, or Sequestration, was first seriously proposed back in the 1970s, by a range of scientists and engineers, including Cesare Marchetti, (“On Geoengineering and the CO2 problem”, Climatic Change, Volume 1, Number 1, Pages 59 – 68) who is reputed to have coined the term “geoengineering” (see “Geoengineering: Could or should we do it?”, Stephen H. Schneider, Climatic Change, Volume 33, Number 3, Pages 291 – 302).

Continue reading “Carbon Captured : The Ultimate Bailout”
Categories
Academic Freedom Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Green Investment Green Power Peak Coal Peak Energy Peak Natural Gas Peak Oil

Academic Freedom #4 : Carbon pricing cannot work #2

Image Credit : AVGLOB.net

Carbon pricing is the ultimate antisocial policy.

The trouble with carbon pricing or taxation is there’s nowhere really that consumer spending can fly to to avoid carbon pricing.

In the United Kingdom, for example, around 90% of the country’s energy is derived from fossil fuels. A carbon price will make everything more expensive – mostly for consumers.
Despite the phenomenal, almost exponential, growth in renewable energy deployment, not everybody can choose to use green energy – there simply isn’t enough to go round.

The theoretical basis for carbon pricing, taxation, and quota markets (as known as cap and trade, or cap-and-something) is that the polluter should pay. The thing is, it’s not clear in the theory whether the polluter is the energy company who produces dirty energy, or the consumer of the dirty energy (who doesn’t have a choice about the carbon content of the energy they use).

Let’s be honest here – pricing high carbon energy is not a cost that’s going to be paid by energy producers – they are simply going to pass the costs on to their consumers.

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #4 : Carbon pricing cannot work #2”
Categories
Academic Freedom Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Energy Change Energy Revival Green Investment

Academic Freedom #3 : Carbon pricing cannot work #1

From what I have read, I have concluded that economists live in a dream world, divorced from logic and reality.

Most economists appear happy to live with, and base their work upon, huge assumptions, apart from some branches of the discipline such as the behavioural economists.

Standard economists assume that all actors in a trading, free, market always make a rational, selfish decision at each point of sale. One can question whether all purchasing decisions are made solely on a Darwinian-survival, or Dawkins-selfish basis. One can also question if all purchasing decisions are rational.

My main doubt is whether consumers actually have any choice in their purchasing decisions. I would say that the majority of markets have narrow scope – that not all the products that could come to market are permitted to come to market. My experience suggests that markets are rarely free – some product sellers have restricted, limited access to markets, either because others have cornered the market through some artificial competitive advantage, or through having undue power within the market.

There are also the advantages conferred by time in the marketplace – the grandfather winner-takes-all syndrome. And on top of that, there are the markets that start to resemble cartel operations, or even quasi-monopolies.

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #3 : Carbon pricing cannot work #1”
Categories
Academic Freedom Bait & Switch Big Picture Big Society Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Autonomy Energy Change Energy Insecurity Engineering Marvel Financiers of the Apocalypse Fossilised Fuels Freemarketeering Fuel Poverty Green Investment Green Power Growth Paradigm Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift National Energy National Power Nudge & Budge Oil Change Paradigm Shapeshifter Peak Emissions Petrolheads Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Regulatory Ultimatum Social Democracy Sustainable Deferment Technofix Technological Fallacy The Myth of Innovation The Price of Gas The Price of Oil The War on Error Vote Loser Wasted Resource Western Hedge

Academic Freedom #2 : The UN climate treaty needs energy producer obligations

Image Credit : Orin Langelle GJEP-GFC

 The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change calls nations to attend regular gatherings of the signatories to the ratified convention – the Conference of the Parties.

The nations send delegations – hardly ever sending their premiers, presidents and primes. What bargaining powers do these delegations have ? They have the authority to offer small percentages in emissions reductions, just to show willing. They have the mandate to refuse policies their nations do not like.

The language is framed around energy consumption – most country delegations have been advised by their economists that increased efficiency in the use of energy means that the national energy use will decrease. O wondrous technology ! You allow us to cut our energy use – and therefore our carbon intensity.

These same economists advise that the Holy Ghost of Innovation will inspire Research and Development – which will mean that new technologies will curtail greenhouse gas emissions. We only have to invest in new engineering. This Cult of the New is the fable on which most advanced nations hang their hope.

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #2 : The UN climate treaty needs energy producer obligations”
Categories
Academic Freedom Bait & Switch Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Big Society Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Climate Change Conflict of Interest Contraction & Convergence Corporate Pressure Demoticratica Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Divide & Rule Dreamworld Economics Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Revival Environmental Howzat Fossilised Fuels Gamechanger Global Warming Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life National Energy Nudge & Budge Oil Change Paradigm Shapeshifter Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Regulatory Ultimatum Resource Curse Social Chaos Social Democracy The War on Error Voluntary Behaviour Change Western Hedge

Academic Freedom #1 : The United Nations isn’t working

A lot of people are going to be distressed when I say this, and tell me I have no right to say it – but honestly guys and gals, it’s time to tell the patently obvious truth : the United Nations process on Climate Change isn’t working.

Even if there is a way to construct a treaty with wording that all the country delegations can agree to (or at least not bitterly fight tooth and nail to their early graves), the basic premise of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is faulty.
Those responsible for the production of fossil fuels should be made to accept responsibility for global warming pollution, and take on the mission of changing the way they make the energy they sell the world.

I’m not calling for environmental fines. Environmental fines don’t work. They don’t stop pollution, they don’t prevent polluting activities, and they don’t provide enough monetary resources to clean up pollution.

I’m not calling for carbon tax, or other forms of carbon pricing. Those responsible for selling polluting energy would never pay the full carbon price – they always delegate extra costs to their consumers.

Carbon pricing and carbon taxation can never provide an incentive for meaningful de-carbonisation of the energy supply that we need. Cap and Trade does not appear to have altered the course of any region’s energy infrastructure development. The price of carbon always remains too low to stimulate real change.

Continue reading “Academic Freedom #1 : The United Nations isn’t working”
Categories
Bait & Switch Big Picture Big Society Burning Money Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Carbon Taxatious Cool Poverty Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Demoticratica Direction of Travel Divide & Rule Efficiency is King Emissions Impossible Energy Change Energy Disenfranchisement Fair Balance Fuel Poverty Green Investment Green Power Hydrocarbon Hegemony Low Carbon Life Major Shift Mass Propaganda Media Money Sings National Energy National Power Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Regulatory Ultimatum Solar Sunrise The Data The War on Error Vote Loser Wind of Fortune

Dances With Energy Bills

After the recent notorious Panorama programme on energy prices, and yesterday evening’s debate on renewable energy and the costs of green energy policy, in the House of Commons, a number of people have commented that Members of Parliament and Ministers of the UK Government appear to know very few facts – and those they can remember they seem to quote in the wrong context.

This state of affairs is disgraceful, and allows mendacious narratives to persist in the mainstream media.
RenewableUK contacted me and asked me to embed a YouTube offering some corrective information. I was very pleased to do so. I can assure my readers that I have not and will not be paid for doing so.

The key problem is not the cost to energy bill payers from direct subsidies such as the solar photovoltaic feed in tariff. The contribution from this is minor. The largest effect on energy bills is likely to come from two sources – the Energy Company Obligation and the plans for Carbon Pricing and other measures in the Electricity Market Reform.

Continue reading “Dances With Energy Bills”
Categories
Carbon Pricing Policy Warfare Price Control Solar Sunrise Wind of Fortune

Solar FIT to Bust #9

The feed-in tariff proposals made by the UK Government Department of Energy and Climate Change would only add £6.00 a year to household bills by 2020.

By comparison, the cost of supporting nuclear power through a carbon price floor and other measures could cost each home energy bill payer something of the order of £60.00 a year.


Which, I ask you, offers the better value ? And will the UK Government double the Feed-in Tariff Budget, and slow down the reduction in solar photovoltaic FiT payments ?

Besides wind farm development, solar microgeneration development appears to be the fastest-growing electricity generation resource in the UK. The amounts that are required from the public finances to support it are minuscule compared to the grand schemes of carbon pricing and other contract-based measures to encourage investment in large, centralised low carbon power plants.

It’s a bitter truth, but carbon pricing won’t stop the burning of coal for power generation. Pricing carbon will only benefit already existing nuclear power plants – it won’t stimulate energy companies to build new ones. Only renewable electricity generation can displace the emissions from burning coal.

Any pragmatist would conclude – let’s go with solar and wind ! And let’s keep the incentives that are working !

Ask your democratic representative, a Member of the UK Parliament, to support the current levels of solar electric feed-in tariff : 0207 219 3000. The debate starts at 4pm today :-

https://news.bbc.co.uk/democracylive/hi/house_of_commons/newsid_9645000/9645195.stm

Categories
Carbon Army Carbon Pricing Climate Change Cost Effective Not In My Name Obamawatch Peace not War Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Resource Curse Resource Wards Sandstorm Smokestorm The Price of Gas The Price of Oil

Cheering on the Occupation

I am deeply concerned about the ramping up in rhetoric about Iran’s imagined nuclear weapons programme. I say “imagined” because there is no evidence pointing towards Iran doing anything other than they say they are doing – following a civilian nuclear power programme.

In fact, this bluster has nothing at all to do with the power of atoms, peaceful or otherwise. From my point of view, it’s all about controlling the price of fuel.

Economic sanctions against Iran are being considered on the basis of the International Atomic Energy Agency report on Iran’s nuclear ambitions and activities, and this I would consider highly deceitful. The “international community” may well impose further trade embargoes on Iran, but the underlying reason for such action has nothing to do with nuclear suspicion. I believe that applying economic sanctions against Iran is all about forcing Iran to export more fossil fuel – principally Natural Gas – and to do so cheaply.

In fact, there is a two-pronged assault on Iran’s energy sovereignty taking place – not only are economic sanctions already in place, there are calls from the highest top table for an end to fossil fuel subsidies. People have been cheering this on because at first glance it looks like a carbon control policy, but in reality it will lead to Western economic occupation of Iranian hydrocarbons – an occupation, it is hoped, to be accomplished without finding some excuse for a military intervention.

Continue reading “Cheering on the Occupation”