Author: Jo

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Carbon Capture Hydrocarbon Hegemony Hydrogen Economy Renewable Gas

Energy Bill : Hydrogen Ready ?

Forget capturing carbon, the key test of the usefulness of the United Kingdom’s upcoming Energy Bill will be whether it’s designed to be “hydrogen ready”.

It is almost certain that there will be a second “dash for gas” – that Britain will sanction and possibly underwrite a new fleet of gas-fired power stations. Those who wield modelling software are insistent that this will break the carbon bank – that new “unabated” gas plants will prevent the UK reducing its greenhouse gas emissions.

The proposed solution technology – to be fitted to both coal-fired and gas-fired power plants, is known as Carbon Capture and Storage or CCS.

The British Labour Party are pushing for the Energy Bill to enshrine CCS on all new gas-fired power plants after 2020, in order to meet the carbon targets set out in the 2008 Climate Change Act.

“The Labour Party has put itself on a fresh collision course with the Government over its dash-for-gas policy, proposing that after 2020 all new, gas-fired power plants be forced to install technology to reduce their carbon emissions that will double the cost of the electricity they produce … Dr Robert Gross, director of Imperial College’s centre for energy policy and technology, said: “I welcome Labour’s sentiment on CCS. It’s saying that if you want new, gas-fired power plants, then that’s fine, but you have to make it consistent with emissions targets.” … Bloomberg New Energy Finance calculated that fitting CCS to new gas-fired power plants would add up to £200m to the building cost, doubling the price of the electricity…”

https://www.businessgreen.com/bg/news/2239904/labour-challenges-coalition-to-decarbonise-energy-bill?WT.rss_f=&WT.rss_a=Labour+challenges+coalition+to+decarbonise+Energy+Bill&utm_source=Twitter&utm_medium=Twitterfeed&utm_campaign=BusinessGreen
https://www.bellona.org/articles/articles_2013/1359479253.19

Although I have met a number of people who believe that widespread CCS is not only desirable, but viable, the carbon capture capability of Britain has not yet been proven – particularly whether CCS can be made marketable, as it is likely to be costly.

CCS is just a way to make carbon dioxide “disappear” – in most designs by pumping it underground. It is a caveat – it permits the energy industry to plan to continue to burn fossil fuels. It is not entirely clear if it can ever be secure or cheap enough to meet the UK’s plans. Just one leak from a carbon dioxide storage cavern, and the whole programme would be rendered irrelevant.

However, even if CCS becomes law, there is another clause that should be inserted into the Energy Bill, and I was discussing this with some industry players at Portcullis House, Westminster yesterday evening.

If European plans for low carbon, renewable gas production take off, what will matter for new gas-fired power plants is if they are flexible enough to combust a range of gases with varying chemical composition and energy density.

Deploying suitable flexible gas turbines is likely to happen – but for another reason. The UK is rapidly advancing with the capacity and supply of wind power, and solar power. Like Germany, pretty soon there will be so much spare, unused wind and solar power, that it will be sensible to consider using it, rather than shedding the load, particularly at night.

An excellent way to make use of spare and “stranded” wind and solar power, and balance the power grid at the same time, is to make gas when people don’t need power, and burn gas when the wind is not blowing and the sun is not shining. Gas can back up variability in wind and solar power. But for gas-fired power plants to be able to “follow” wind and solar power and fill in the generation gaps, the power stations need to be highly flexible – something that new gas turbines can provide.

From now on, as an increasing amount of the gas the nation burns for backup will need to be Renewable Gas, a range of green gas streams that include Renewable Hydrogen, the new gas power plants that are built must utilise flexible gas turbines.

Of note – there are several plans for Carbon Capture and Storage on power plants that use a gasification technique to separate the carbon from the fuel before burning it – and the end result is gas that is high in hydrogen. This “incidental” production of hydrogen could become a useful addition to the country’s Renewable Gas stocks.

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A Question of Resilience

Again, the evil and greedy oil, gas and mining companies have proved their wickedness by manipulating public opinion, by directly financing conspiracy theorists who deny climate change science. The irony is tangibly acidic. The paranoid have actually been duped by a genuine conspiracy. They have drunk the Kool Aid; they have believed the lies; they have continued to communicate doubt. They think they are challenging corruption in high places, but what they are really doing is reinforcing apathy in the face of genuine risk.

The questions posed so unrelentingly by the climate change deniers have sewn a patchwork tapestry of disinformation, which continues to poison genuine dialogue and is undermining political progress. We cannot take these people with us into constructive engagement, and ask them to help us forge a broad consensus. It is as if they exist in a parallel universe. Some of us will continue to attempt to conduct dialogue, but will end up wasting our time. The documentation by the media is faulty, and perpetuates the success of the denier strategy of divide and rule.

But hold on a minute. There are problems with the stance of climate change denial, but what about the positioning of climate change activists ? Let’s try that first paragraph one more time :-

[ Again, the “evil” and “greedy” oil, gas and mining companies have proved their “wickedness” by manipulating public opinion, by directly financing conspiracy theorists who deny climate change science. The irony is tangibly acidic. The paranoid have actually been duped by a genuine conspiracy. They have drunk the Kool Aid; they have believed the lies; they have continued to communicate doubt. They think they are challenging corruption in high places, but what they are really doing is reinforcing apathy in the face of genuine risk. ]

By casting the fossil fuel and mining corporations as wrongly motivated, by using negative emotive labels, the dominant narrative of political activists has failed, once again, to move us all forward. These kinds of revelations about underhand corporate public relations activities are by now unsurprising. The news cannot shock, although it may disgust. Yet, since nothing is offered to counter-balance or correct the inappropriate behaviour of the “fossil fuellers”, they win the game they invented, the game they wrote the rules for. Protesting at a petrol station achieves nothing of any note, not even when there’s a camera-friendly polar bear. We hear the message of pain, but there is no ointment. There is a disconnect between the gruesome discovery and any way out of this mess. The revelation of intent of the carbon dinosaurs, the recounting of the anti-democratic activities, does not result in change.

Environmental pollution is a “victimless” crime – no matter how much we sympathise or empathise with the plight of poisoned floating fish, dying bees, asthmatic kids, or cancer-laden people. Fines and taxes cannot rectify the scourge of environmental pollution, because there is no ultimate accountability. Regulation cannot be enforced. The misbehaviour just carries on, because there is systemic momentum. There is no legal redress (“due process” in Americanese) for those who are suffering the worsening effects of climate change, and there is no treaty that can be made to curb greenhouse gas emissions that anybody can be bound to by international sanctions.

And so when we hear the same old story – that the energy industry is propagandising – we cannot respond. We don’t know what we can do. We are paralysed. This narrative is so tired, it snores.

Truth may have been a victim, but the energy industry are also vulnerable – they are acting in self-defence mode. Let’s take the big vista in : there is stress in the global production of fossil fuel energy, and all routes to an easy fix, even if it’s only a short-term fix, are choked.

So let’s ask the question – why do the energy companies deceive ? Do they think they are being deceptive ? Why do fossil fuel miners seek to massage public opinion ? This is a question of resilience, of Darwinian survival – seeking advantage by altering policy by tampering with public assent. They believe in their product, they construct their mission – they are protecting their future profits, they’re making a living. They’re humans in human organisations. They’re not “evil”, “greedy” or “lying” – as a rule. There are no demons here, nor can we convincingly summon them.

Look at the activist game plan – we announce the deliberate actions of the fossil fuel companies to influence the political mandate. But these scandals are only ever voiced, never acted upon. They cannot be acted upon because those who care have no power, no agency, to correct or prevent the outcomes. And those who should care, do not care, because they themselves have rationalised the misdemeanours of the fossil fuellers. They too have drunk from the goblet of doubt. Amongst English-speaking politicians, I detect a good number who consider climate change to be a matter for wait-and-see rather than urgent measures. Besides those who continue to downplay the seriousness of climate change.

Look also at the difference between the covert nature of the support for climate change deniers, and the open public relations activities of the fossil fuel and mining companies. They speak in the right way for their audiences. That’s smart.

In time, the end of the fossil fuel age will become apparent, certain vague shapes on the horizon will come out of the blur and into sharp focus. But in the meantime, the carbon dinosaurs are taking action to secure market share, maintain the value of their stock, prop up the value of their shareholders’ assets. The action plan for survival of the oil, gas, coal and mining operations now includes the promotion of extreme energy – so-called unconventional fossil fuels, the once-dismissed lower quality resources such as tight gas, shale gas, shale oil and coalbed methane (coal seam methane). Why are the energy industry trying to gild the rotten lily ? Is the support for unconventional fossil fuels a move for certain countries, such as the United States of America, to develop more indigenous sources of energy – more homegrown energy to make them independent of foreign influence ? This could be the main factor – most of the public relations for shale gas, for example, seems to come from USA.

The answer could come by responding to another question. Could it be that the production of petroleum oil has in fact peaked – that decline has set in for good ? Could it be that the Saudis are not “turning off the taps” to force market prices, because in actual fact the taps are being turned off for them, by natural well depletion ? The Arab Spring is a marvellous distraction – the economic sanctions and military and democratic upheaval are excellent explanations for the plateau in global oil production.

It seems possible from what I have looked at that Peak Oil is a reality, that decline in the volumes of produced petroleum is inevitable. The fossil fuel producers, the international corporations who have their shareholders and stock prices to maintain, have been pushing the narrative that the exploitation of unconventional fossil fuels can replace lost conventional production. They have been painting a picture of the horn of plenty – a cornucopia of unconventional fossil fuels far exceeding conventional resources. To please their investors, the fossil fuel companies are lying about the future.

Sure, brute force and some new technology are opening up “unconventionals” but this will not herald the “golden age” of shale gas or oils from shale. Shale gas fields deplete rapidly, and tar sands production is hugely polluting and likely to be unsustainable in several ways because of that. There might be huge reserves – but who knows how quickly heavy oils can be produced ? And how much energy input is required to create output energy from other low grade fossil strata ? It is simply not possible to be certain that the volumes of unconventional fossil fuel production can match the decline in conventionals.

The facts of the matter need admitting – there is no expansion of sweet crude oil production possible. There’s no more crude – there’s only crud. And slow crud, at that.

Peak Oil is a geological fact, not a market artefact. The production levels of crude and condensate may not recover, even if military-backed diplomacy wins the day for the energy industry in the Middle East and North Africa.

Peak Oil has implications for resilience of the whole global economy – the conversion of social and trade systems to use new forms of energy will take some considerable time – and their integrity is at risk if Peak Oil cannot be navigated smoothly. Peak Oil is dangerous – it seems useful to deny it as long as possible.

It’s pretty clear that we’ve been handed lots of unreliable sops over the years. The energy industry promised us that biofuels could replace gasoline and diesel – but the realisation of this dream has been blocked at every turn by inconvenient failings. The energy industry has, to my mind, been deploying duds in order to build in a delay while they attempt to research and develop genuine alternatives to conventional fossil fuels – but they are failing. The dominant narrative of success is at risk – will all of this continue to hold together ? Can people continue to believe in the security of energy systems – the stability of trade and economic wealth creation ? Oh yes, people raise concerns – for example about disruption in the Middle East and North Africa, and then propose “solutions” – regime change, military support for opposition forces, non-invasive invasions. But overall, despite these all too evident skirmishes, the impression of resilience is left intact. The problem is being framed as one of “edge issues” – not systemic. It’s not clear how long they can keep up with this game.

The facade is cracking. The mask is slipping. BP and Centrica in a bout of hyper-realism have said that the development of shale gas in the UK will not be a “game changer”. It may be that their core reasoning is to drag down the market value of Cuadrilla, maybe in order to purchase it. But anyway, they have defied the American energy industry public relations – hurrah ! Shale gas is not the milk of a honey-worded mother goddess after all – but what’s their alternative story ? That previously under-developed gas in Iran and Iraq will be secured ? And what about petroleum ? Will the public relations bubble about that be punctured too ? Telling people about Peak Oil – how useful is that ? They won’t do it because it has to be kept unbelievable and unbelieved in order to save face and keep global order. Academics talk about Peak Oil, but it is not just a dry, technical question confined to ivory towers. Attention is diverted, but the issue remains. Looking at it doesn’t solve it, so we are encouraged not to look at it.

So, why do the energy industry purposely set out to manipulate public opinion ? Well, the reason for their open advertising strategy is clear – to convince investors, governments, customers, that all is well in oil and gas – that there is a “gas glut” – that the world is still awash in petroleum and Natural Gas – that the future will be even more providential than the past – that the only way is up. All the projections of the oil and gas industry and the national, regional and international agencies are that energy demand will continue to rise – the underlying impression you are intended to be left with is that, therefore, global energy supply will also continue to rise. Business has never been better, and it can only get more profitable. We will need to turn to unconventional resources, but hey, there’s so much of the stuff, we’ll be swimming in it.

But what is the purpose of the covert “public relations” of the energy industry ? Why do they seek to put out deception via secretly-funded groups ? When the truth emerges, as it always does in the end, the anger and indignation of the climate change activists is guaranteed. And angry and indignant activists can easily be ignored. So, the purpose in funding climate change deniers is to emotionally manipulate climate change activists – rattle their cages, shake their prison bars. Let them rail – it keeps the greens busy, too occupied with their emotional disturbance. By looking at these infractions in depth are we being distracted from the bigger picture ? Can we make any change in global governance by bringing energy industry deception to light ?

Even as commentators peddle conspiracy theories about the science and politics of a warming planet, the “leader of the free world” is inaugurated into a second term and announces action on climate change. Although progressives around the world applaud this, I’m not sure what concrete action the President and his elite colleague team of rich, mostly white, middle-aged men can take. I am listening to the heartbeat of the conversation, and my take away is this : by announcing action on climate change, Barack Obama is declaring war on the sovereignty of the oil and gas producing nations of the Middle East and North Africa.

You see, the Middle East and North Africa are awash in Natural Gas. Untapped Natural Gas. The seismic surveys are complete. The secret services have de-stabilised democracy in a number of countries now, and this “soft power” will assist in constructing a new narrative – that unruliness in the Middle East and North Africa is preventing progress – that the unstable countries are withholding Natural Gas from the world – the fossil fuel that can replace petroleum oil in vehicles when chemically processed, the fossil fuel that has half the carbon emissions of coal when generating electricity. Resources of Natural Gas need “protecting”, securing, “liberating”, to save the world’s economy from collapse.

Obama stands up and declares “war” on climate change. And all I hear is a klaxon alarm for military assault on Iran.

But even then, if the world turns to previously untapped Natural Gas, I believe this is only a short-term answer to Peak Oil. Because waiting in the wings, about ten years behind, is Peak Natural Gas. And there is no answer to Peak Natural Gas, unless it includes a genuine revolution in energy production away from what lies beneath. And that threatens the sustenance of the oil and gas industry.

No wonder, then, that those who fund climate change denial – who stand to profit from access to untapped fossil fuels, secured by military aggresssion in the Middle East and North Africa – also fund opposition to renewable energy. The full details of this are still emerging. Will we continue to express horror and distaste when the strategy becomes more transparent ? Will that achieve anything ? Or will we focus on ways to bring about the only possible future – a fossil-fuel-free energy economy ? This will always take more action than words, but messaging will remain key. The central message is one that will sound strange to most people, but it needs to be said : fossil fuels will not continue to sustain the global economy : all will change.

Funnily enough, that is exactly the summary of the statements from the World Economic Forum in Davos – only the world’s administration are still not admitting to Peak Fossil Fuels. Instead, they are using climate change as the rationale for purposeful decarbonisation.

Well, whichever way it comes, let’s welcome it – as long as it comes soon. It’s not just the survival of individual oil and gas companies that is at stake – the whole global economy is at risk from Peak Fossil Fuels – and climate change. I use the word “economy”, because that is the word used by MBAs. What I mean is, the whole of human civilisation and life on Earth is at risk from Peak Fossil Fuels and climate change. Unconventional fossil fuels are the most polluting answer to any question, and expansion of their use will undoubtedly set off “climate bombs“.

Don’t get me wrong – Natural Gas is a good bridge to the future, but it is only a transition fuel, not a destination. Please, can we not have war against Iran. Please let’s have some peaceful trade instead. And some public admissions of the seriousness of both Peak Fossil Fuels and climate change by all the key players in governance and energy.

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How is your Australia ?

[ PLEASE NOTE : This post is not written by JOABBESS.COM, but by a contact in Australia, who was recently asked if they could send an update of the situation there, and contributed this piece. ]

John and Jono: Resistance to coal in heat-afflicted Australia
By Miriam Pepper, 24/1/13

It was predicted to be a hot summer in eastern Australia, with a return to dry El Nino conditions after two back-to-back wet La Nina years. And hot it has been indeed. Temperature records have tumbled across the country – including the hottest day, the longest heatwave, and the hottest four month period.

With heavy fuel loads heightening fire risks, bushfires have blazed across Tasmania, Victoria, NSW, South Australia and Queensland. The fires have wreaked devastation on communities, with homes, farmland and forest destroyed. Thankfully few human lives have been lost (unlike the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009), though many non-human neighbours were not so fortunate. Some 110,000 hectares burned and 130 houses were lost in the Tasmanian bushfires earlier this month, and fires still rage in Gippsland Victoria where over 60,000 hectares have burned so far. And we are only just over halfway through summer.

On January 12, the Australian Government-established Climate Commission released a short report entitled “Off the charts: Extreme Australian Summer heat”. The document concluded that:

“The length, extent and severity of this heatwave are unprecedented in the measurement record. Although Australia has always had heatwaves, hot days and bushfires, climate change has increased the risk of more intense heatwaves and extreme hot days, as well as exacerbated bushfire conditions. Scientists have concluded that climate change is making extreme hot days, heatwaves and bushfire weather worse.”

The Australian continent is one of climate change’s frontlines, and also a major source of its primary cause – fossil fuels.

While the mercury soared and the fires roared, a young translator from Newcastle called Jonathan Moylan issued a fake press release claiming that the ANZ bank, which is bankrolling a massive new coal project at Maules Creek in north western NSW, had withdrawn its loan. Whitehaven Coal’s share price plummeted temporarily before the hoax was uncovered, making national news.

This action did not come out of the blue, neither for Moylan personally nor for the various communities and groups that have for years been confronting (and been confronted by) the rapid expansion of coal and coal seam gas mining at sites across Australia.

The scale of fossil fuel expansion in Australia is astonishing. Already the world’s biggest coal exporter, planned mine expansion could see Australia double its output. The world’s largest coal port of Newcastle NSW has already doubled its capacity in the last 15 years and may now double it again. Mega-mines that are on the cards in the Galilee Basin in central Queensland would quintuple ship movements across the Great Barrier Reef, to 10,000 coal ships per year. If the proposed Galilee Basin mines were fully developed today, the annual carbon dioxide emissions caused by burning their coal alone would exceed those of the United Kingdom or of Canada. The implications of such unfettered expansion locally for farmland, forests, human health and aquatic life as well as globally for the climate are severe.

I have twice had the privilege of participating in a Christian affinity group with Moylan at coal protests. And at around the time of his ANZ stunt, John the Baptist’s ministry and the baptism of Jesus in the gospel of Luke were on the lectionary. For me, there have been some striking parallels between John and Jonathan (Jono).

John the Baptist lived in the wilderness. Jono the Activist has been camping for some time in Leard State Forest near Maules Creek, at a Front Line Action on Coal mine blockade.

John got himself locked up by criticising the behavior of Herod, the then ruler of Galilee (in what is now northern Israel). For making the announcement that ANZ should have made, Jono could now face a potential 10-year jail sentence or a fine of up to $500,000.

When followers suggested that John the Baptist might be the Messiah, he pointed away from himself and towards the Christ that was yet to come. When the spotlight has been shone onto Moylan, by the media and activists alike, he has repeatedly deflected the attention away from himself and towards the resistance of the Maules Creek community to the project and towards the impacts if the project goes ahead – the loss of farmland and critically endangered forest, the drawdown and potential contamination of the aquifer, the coal dust, the impacts on the global climate. And indeed, the way that Moylan has conducted himself in media interviews has I believe resulted in exposure about the Maules Creek project itself (which is currently under review by the federal Environment Minister) as well as some mainstream discussion about broader issues such as responding to the urgency of climate change, government planning laws and the rights of communities, and ethical investment.

In an opinion piece published today, Jono Moylan finishes by urging us to act:

“We are living in a dream world if we think that politicians and the business world are going to sort out the problem of coal expansion on their own. History shows us that when power relations are unevenly matched, change always comes from below. Every right we have has come from ordinary people doing extraordinary things and the time to act is rapidly running out.”

Whatever our age, ability or infirmity we can all play a part in such change from below.

Links

Climate Commission: https://climatecommission.gov.au
Frontline Action on Coal: https://frontlineaction.wordpress.com
Maules Creek Community Council: https://maulescreek.org
“Potential jailing not as scary as threat of Maules Creek mine”, opinion piece by Jonathan Moylan, 24/1/13: https://www.smh.com.au/opinion/politics/potential-jailing-not-as-scary-as-threat-of-maules-creek-mine-20130123-2d78s.html
Greenpeace climate change campaigns: https://www.greenpeace.org/australia/en/what-we-do/climate/
Australian Religious Response to Climate Change: https://www.arrcc.org.au
Uniting Earthweb: https://www.unitingearthweb.org.au

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A Referendum for Energy

As I dodged the perfunctory little spots of snow yesterday, on my way down to Highbury and Islington underground train station, I passed a man who appeared to have jerky muscle control attempting to punch numbers on the keypad of a cash machine in the wall. He was missing, but he was grinning. A personal joke, perhaps. The only way he could get his money out of the bank to buy a pint of milk and a sliced loaf for his tea was to accurately tap his PIN number. But he wasn’t certain his body would let him. I threw him an enquiring glance, but he seemed too involved in trying to get control of his arms and legs to think of accepting help.

This, I felt, was a metaphor for the state of energy policy and planning in the United Kingdom – everybody in the industry and public sector has focus, but nobody appears to have much in the way of overall control – or even, sometimes, direction. I attended two meetings today setting out to address very different parts of the energy agenda : the social provision of energy services to the fuel-poor, and the impact that administrative devolution may have on reaching Britain’s Renewable Energy targets.

At St Luke’s Centre in Central Street in Islington, I heard from the SHINE team on the progress they are making in providing integrated social interventions to improve the quality of life for those who suffer fuel poverty in winter, where they need to spend more than 10% of their income on energy, and are vulnerable to extreme temperatures in both summer heatwaves and winter cold snaps. The Seasonal Health Interventions Network was winning a Community Footprint award from the National Energy Action charity for success in their ability to reach at-risk people through referrals for a basket of social needs, including fuel poverty. It was pointed out that people who struggle to pay energy bills are more likely to suffer a range of poverty problems, and that by linking up the social services and other agencies, one referral could lead to multiple problem-solving.

In an economy that is suffering signs of contraction, and with austerity measures being imposed, and increasing unemployment, it is clear that social services are being stretched, and yet need is still great, and statutory responsibility for handling poverty is still mostly a publicly-funded matter. By offering a “one-stop shop”, SHINE is able to offer people a range of energy conservation and efficiency services alongside fire safety and benefits checks and other help to make sure those in need are protected at home and get what they are entitled to. With 1 in 5 households meeting the fuel poverty criteria, there is clearly a lot of work to do. Hackney and Islington feel that the SHINE model could be useful to other London Boroughs, particularly as the Local Authority borders are porous.

We had a presentation on the Cold Weather Plan from Carl Petrokovsky working for the Department of Health, explaining how national action on cold weather planning is being organised, using Met Office weather forecasts to generate appropriate alert levels, in a similar way to heatwave alerts in summer – warnings that I understand could become much more important in future owing to the possible range of outcomes from climate change.

By way of some explanation – more global warming could mean significant warming for the UK. More UK warming could mean longer and, or, more frequent heated periods in summer weather, perhaps with higher temperatures. More UK warming could also mean more disturbances in an effect known as “blocking” where weather systems lock into place, in any season, potentially pinning the UK under a very hot or very cold mass of air for weeks on end. In addition, more UK warming could mean more precipitation – which would mean more rain in summer and more snow in winter.

Essentially, extremes in weather are public health issues, and particularly in winter, more people are likely to suffer hospitalisation from the extreme cold, or falls, or poor air quality from boiler fumes – and maybe end up in residential care. Much of this expensive change of life is preventable, as are many of the excess winter deaths due to cold. The risks of increasing severity in adverse conditions due to climate change are appropriately dealt with by addressing the waste of energy at home – targeting social goals can in effect contribute to meeting wider adaptational goals in overall energy consumption.

If the UK were to be treated as a single system, and the exports and imports of the most significant value analysed, the increasing net import of energy – the yawning gap in the balance of trade – would be seen in its true light – the country is becoming impoverished. Domestic, indigenously produced sources of energy urgently need to be developed. Policy instruments and measured designed to reinvigorate oil and gas exploration in the North Sea and over the whole UKCS – UK Continental Shelf – are not showing signs of improving production significantly. European-level policy on biofuels did not revolutionise European agriculture as regards energy cropping – although it did contribute to decimating Indonesian and Malaysian rainforest. The obvious logical end point of this kind of thought process is that we need vast amounts of new Renewable Energy to retain a functioning economy, given global financial, and therefore, trade capacity, weakness.

Many groups, both with the remit for public service and private enterprise oppose the deployment of wind and solar power, and even energy conservation measures such as building wall cladding. Commentators with access to major media platforms spread disinformation about the ability of Renewable Energy technologies to add value. In England, in particular, debates rage, and many hurdles are encountered. Yet within the United Kingdom as a whole, there are real indicators of progressive change, particularly in Scotland and Wales.

I picked up the threads of some of these advances by attending a PRASEG meeting on “Delivering Renewable Energy Under Devolution”, held at the Institution of Mechanical Engineers in Westminster, London; a tour to back up the launch of a new academic report that analyses performance of the devolved administrations and their counterpart in the English Government in Westminster. The conclusions pointed to something that I think could be very useful – if Scotland takes the referendum decision for independence, and continues to show strong leadership and business and community engagement in Renewable Energy deployment, the original UK Renewable Energy targets could be surpassed.

I ended the afternoon exchanging some perceptions with an academic from Northern Ireland. We shared that Eire and Northern Ireland could become virtually energy-independent – what with the Renewable Electricity it is possible to generate on the West Coast, and the Renewable Gas it is possible to produce from the island’s grass (amongst other things). We also discussed the tendency of England to suck energy out of its neighbour territories. I suggested that England had appropriated Scottish hydrocarbon resources, literally draining the Scottish North Sea dry of fossil fuels in exchange for token payments to the Western Isles, and suchlike. If Scotland leads on Renewable Energy and becomes independent, I suggested, the country could finally make back the wealth it lost to England. We also shared our views about the Republic of Ireland and Northern Ireland being asked to wire all their new Renewable Electricity to England, an announcement that has been waiting to happen for some time. England could also bleed Wales of green power with the same lines being installed to import green juice from across the Irish Sea.

I doubt that politics will completely nix progress on Renewable Energy deployment – the economics are rapidly becoming clear that clean, green power and gas are essential for the future. However, I would suggest we could expect some turbulence in the political sphere, as the English have to learn the hard way that they have a responsibility to rapidly increase their production of low carbon energy.

Asking the English if they want to break ties with the European Union, as David Cameron has suggested with this week’s news on a Referendum, is the most unworkable idea, I think. England, and in fact, all the individual countries of the United Kingdom, need close participation in Europe, to join in with the development of new European energy networks, in order to overcome the risks of economic collapse. It may happen that Scotland, and perhaps Wales, even, separate themselves from any increasing English isolation and join the great pan-Europe energy projects in their own right. Their economies may stabilise and improve, while the fortunes of England may tumble, as those with decision-making powers, crony influence and web logs in the Daily Telegraph and Daily Mail, resist the net benefits of the low carbon energy revolution.

[ Many thanks to Simon and all at the Unity Kitchen at St Luke’s Centre, and the handsomely reviving Unity Latte, and a big hi to all the lunching ladies and gents with whom I shared opinions on the chunkiness of the soup of the day and the correct identification of the vegetables in it. ]

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #1 : Approached by short woman with a notebook in Parliament Square, pointing out to me a handwritten list that included the line “Big Ben”. I pointed at the clock tower and started to explain. The titchy tourist apologised for non-comprehension by saying, “French”, so then I explained the feature attraction to her in French, which I think quite surprised her. We are all European.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #2 : Spoke with an Austrian academic by the fire for coffee at IMechE, One Birdcage Walk, about the odd attitudes as regards gun ownership in the United States, and the American tendency to collective, cohort behaviour. I suggested that this tendency could be useful, as the levels of progressive political thinking, for instance about drone warfare, could put an end to the practice. When aerial bombardment was first conducted, it should have been challenged in law at that point. We are all Europeans.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #3 : Met a very creative Belgian from Gent, living in London. We are all European.

Other Snapshots of Yesterday #4 : We Europeans, we are all so civilised. We think that we need to heat venues for meetings, so that people feel comfortable. Levels of comfort are different for different people, but the lack of informed agreement means that the default setting for temperature always ends up being too high. The St Luke’s Centre meeting room was at roughly 23.5 degrees C when I arrived, and roughly 25 degrees C with all the visitors in the room. I shared with a co-attendee that my personal maximum operating temperature is around 19 degrees C. She thought that was fine for night-time. The IMechE venue on the 2nd floor was roughly 19 – 20 degrees C, but the basement was roughly 24 degrees C. Since one degree Celsius of temperature reduction can knock about 10% of the winter heating bill, why are public meetings about energy not more conscious of adjusting their surroundings ?

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Academic Freedom Assets not Liabilities Bad Science Delay and Deny Divide & Rule Extreme Weather Global Warming Hide the Incline Mad Mad World Mass Propaganda Media Non-Science Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Revolving Door Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Sustainable Deferment The Data The War on Error Toxic Hazard Unqualified Opinion Vote Loser

Boris’ Entirely Accurate Assessment

Image Credit : jgspics

It’s lucky for Londoners that we have a Mayor of the intellectual stature of Boris Johnson. Not only is he a fashion icon, a promotor of safe cycling, and a total sex god, especially dangling from high wires at Olympic Stadia wearing a rumpled suit, but he’s also a sheer genius on science. He’s as learned as the best taxi chauffeur in the City’s Square Mile, and not only that, he’s studied Earth Sciences in depth, and has so much wisdom from his knowledge, that he feels justified in challenging an entire pantheon of climatologists.

Here he is writing philanthropically, no doubt, for our general edification, in the Daily Telegraph online,

“…I am sitting here staring through the window at the flowerpot and the bashed-up barbecue, and I am starting to think this series of winters is not a coincidence. The snow on the flowerpot, since I have been staring, has got about an inch thicker. The barbecue is all but invisible. By my calculations, this is now the fifth year in a row that we have had an unusual amount of snow; and by unusual I mean snow of a kind that I don’t remember from my childhood: snow that comes one day, and then sticks around for a couple of days, followed by more. I remember snow that used to come and settle for just long enough for a single decent snowball fight before turning to slush; I don’t remember winters like this. Two days ago I was cycling through Trafalgar Square and saw icicles on the traffic lights; and though I am sure plenty of readers will say I am just unobservant, I don’t think I have seen that before. I am all for theories about climate change, and would not for a moment dispute the wisdom or good intentions of the vast majority of scientists. But I am also an empiricist; and I observe that something appears to be up with our winter weather, and to call it “warming” is obviously to strain the language…”

I must defer to the man – his memory is incredibly accurate, and the conclusions based on his impressions entirely valid. It cannot be true that in the winter of 1967-1968, for example, when he was a little brat, that snow was so deep and so treacherous in parts of London that cars could not drive up slopes steeper than about 25 degrees; and that the snow lasted for several weeks and caused major infrastructure disruption, especially when there was a second phase of snowfall. It cannot be true that winters in the UK in the late 1970s and early 1980s were really quite bad, because Boris cannot recall them, despite being nearly aged 50, unless of course, he grew up in another, more tropical part of the world.

As his claim to be an “empiricist” is backed up by his winter recollections, we can trust what he says about Piers Corbyn, obviously. Piers Corbyn, alone among his generation, perhaps, is reported by BoJo to believe that “global temperature depends not on concentrations of CO2 but on the mood of our celestial orb.” And he has a fascinating, entirely convincing explanation for recent hard winters, “When the Sun has plenty of sunspots, he bathes the Earth in abundant rays. When the solar acne diminishes, it seems that the Earth gets colder. No one contests that when the planet palpably cooled from 1645 to 1715 – the Maunder minimum, which saw the freezing of the Thames – there was a diminution of solar activity. The same point is made about the so-called Dalton minimum, from 1790 to 1830. And it is the view of Piers Corbyn that we are now seeing exactly the same phenomenon today.”

It’s all so simple, really, and we have to thank Piers Corbyn, shake his hand warmly, and thump him on the back to express our deep gratitude for explaining that history is repeating itself, all over again. Nothing, of course, has changed in the Earth’s atmosphere, so its composition couldn’t be accentuating the Greenhouse Effect, whereby minute amounts of Greenhouse Gases keep the surface of the planet above the 18 or 19 degrees Celsius below freezing point it would be otherwise.

So of course, just as he is right about solar activity being the primary driver of global temperatures today, just as it was clearly the only significant driver in the past, Piers Corbyn must be entirely correct about his predictions of future cooling, especially because he’s being quoted by Borish Johnson, on the website of a very well-read newspaper, no less, “We are in for a prolonged cold period. Indeed, we could have 30 years of general cooling.”

The Daily Telegraph have hit on a superb way of guaranteeing web hits. The strategy of setting a cool cat amongst the warming pigeons is even acknowledged by Mr Johnson himself, “all those scientists and environmentalists who will go wild with indignation on the publication of this article”.

But it appears that despite this clownish, jokey, provocative stance, Boris might actually believe there is something in Piers Corbyn’s analysis : “I am speaking only as a layman [a “layman” with a platform in a national newspaper, which pay him to write this stuff] who observes that there is plenty of snow in our winters these days, and who wonders whether it might be time for government [just a “layman” with some old university pals in the Cabinet] to start taking seriously the possibility – however remote – that Corbyn is right. If he is, that will have big implications for agriculture, tourism, transport, aviation policy and the economy as a whole.”

BoJo then dives off the psychological deep-end, “Of course it still seems a bit nuts to talk of the encroachment of a mini ice age. But it doesn’t seem as nuts as it did five years ago [oh yes, it does]. I look at the snowy waste outside, and I have an open mind.” Open minded ? About things that have been established as reality ? I suppose we should stay open minded about the entire field of Chemistry or Physics, then ? Or how about the Theory of Gravity ? Was Boris being open minded about gravity when he took to the harness and wire during London 2012 ?

Am I giving “oxygen” to the madness of the global warming deniers by writing about this truly ill-informed opinion from Boris Johnson ? The media are already giving more than enough oxygen to people in high office with quaint, outdated views. Should I be silent as major newspapers continue to pour forth ineptitude ?

Am I “scoring an own goal” by pointing out his piece is a travesty of the scientific facts ? No, I am pointing out that his article contains invalid scientific opinion.

When I first read this piece, I thought it was a parody, but now I’m not so sure. It appears to be a deliberate attempt to skew the confidence of other people – confidence in the main body of science, and the decades of patient work by people with thousands of data sets of measurements from the natural world, not just poor memories of winters past.

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Academic Freedom Be Prepared Big Picture Climate Change Climate Chaos Delay and Deny Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Global Heating Global Warming Hide the Incline Paradigm Shapeshifter Realistic Models Science Rules Scientific Fallacy Social Chaos Sustainable Deferment The Data The Science of Communitagion The War on Error

Statistical Elephants Roam Chamber


Image Credit : appinsys.com

Somewhere on the Internet, as I write, somebody will be arguing about global warming – or rather, several somebodies, since disputes require multiple parties, and global warming is, as claimed by some, to be sufficiently contentious to have spawned ongoing vituperativeness. Many of the lines of reasoning will include references to the cyclic nature of Nature. Most of the data considered will be from measurements of “surface” temperatures – the temperature of the atmosphere near the land surface of the Earth, and the temperature of the oceans near the surface with the atmosphere.

These are of course, the easiest things to measure, as this is the part of the Earth system that people inhabit, and all kinds of surface temperature records, of varying validity and accuracy, have been recorded for millenia.

The lower reaches of the air and the upper waters of the oceans, are, however, prone to quite wide swings in temperatures, owing to the turbulent nature of heat, air and water transport in and around the surface of the Earth. And so, easily distracted creatures that we are, if we have any honour in our research into global warming, we consider this see-sawing surface temperature data, and we apply our best analysis techniques to try to comprehend its “walk” – the direction it is taking overall. And herein lies a faultline, that despite decades of obsession, is not easily vaulted. The use of statistical techniques to analyse surface temperature data suffers from two key problems :-

(a) An assumption that we can determine accurately the period of time over which we can confidently apply statistical analysis techniques in order to be able to determine trends in surface temperatures; and

(b) An assumption that surface temperatures can be treated with the usual statistical toolbox of techniques – that surface temperatures would, unless forced, fall into a distribution curve of random readings, spread like a bell curve around a central mean.

And so an army of inspectors applies probabilistic statistical methods to the Earth’s surface temperature data sets, and some say it comes up with more questions than answers. For example, there may, or may not be, evidence that trends can only be claimed over decadal, or multi-decadal, periods; that all the apparent warming can be put down to natural cycles of the oceans, so a cooling phase will be next; that no trend can be claimed in 50 years because of the wild swings in the data ; that all the data is confused with volcanic episodes; that lots of mini-cycles in the Earth system are confusing us. And so on.

When I find people arguing about the surface temperature records, and whether a global warming trend can be picked out from them, I ask them if they’ve looked at the bigger picture : the global heat transport system. Water can retain heat better than air – a very large proportion of the heating caused by sunlight ends up in the oceans – at different places in the depths of the oceans. Over time, this heat is exchanged with the atmosphere, rather like global Gas Central Heating, but a lot of it stays down there – so if there is a trend for global warming, it’s probably best to look in the oceans for it.

And when we do, all the arguments about statistical analysis of surface atmospheric temperatures vapourise into meaninglessness, almost. The trend of ocean warming is so clear, you don’t need to apply any kind of statistical methods (apart from a couple of years of averaging) :-


Image Credit : Climate4You

Actually, the trend of atmospheric warming is also clear, if you take the long view :-


Image Credit : NASA GISS

Anybody who is still arguing about the periodicity of surface temperatures, as if natural cycles could explain global warming, should think again.

Surface temperature cycles are perhaps able to explain whether the next 10 years or so will see more or less global warming – but they cannot explain away the 100 year trend in global warming.

And when people have come to terms that statistics cannot wipe away the reality of global warming, then comes the sting in the tail. Because the ocean is exchanging heat with the atmosphere over time, this creates a time lag – between the heat being generated in the oceans, and surface temperatures rising as a result.

We ain’t seen nothing, yet.

18th January 2013
Twitterverse

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@joabbess

@richardabetts Think focus on air temps waste of time: most heat ends up in oceans https://www.climate4you.com/images/NODC%20GlobalOceanicHeatContent0-700mSince1955%20With37monthRunningAverage.gif … @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

@richardabetts Number of reasons why air temps bounce around making short-term interpretation difficult @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

@richardabetts …but oceans temps could well continue a solid upwards gradient over next decades @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

@richardabetts If oceans continue recent warming gradient, will drag air temps on average up with them @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

@richardabetts If ENSO taking new shape/profile/cycle, this could obscure some of atmospheric temp rise @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

@richardabetts Even ENSO obfuscation can’t put off ~1.2degC warming next 30 years https://www.joabbess.com/2010/07/19/simple-integration/ … @lucialiljegren @nmrqip @ed_hawkins

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@ClimateOfGavin Sometimes distrust obsession re atmospheric temps: look at ocean warming @lucialiljegren @ed_hawkins @richardabetts @nmrqip

@ClimateOfGavin However much @lucialiljegren obsesses on air temperatures I only care about ocean warming @ed_hawkins @richardabetts @nmrqip

@ClimateOfGavin Lower atmosphere temperatures flip-flop all kinds of reasons: not oceans @lucialiljegren @ed_hawkins @richardabetts @nmrqip

@ClimateOfGavin Thermal capacity of oceans means they should show more reliable trend ? @lucialiljegren @ed_hawkins @richardabetts @nmrqip

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@ed_hawkins

@joabbess @ClimateOfGavin Probably, but we only have good enough sub-surface observations of past ~50 years or so.

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@joabbess

@ed_hawkins Yet since oceans good heat retainer even mediocre records of past relevant 4 comparison eg https://www.livescience.com/19414-oceans-warming-135-years.html … @ClimateOfGavin

@ed_hawkins We should definitely use what we know about thermal capacity of oceans to accept ships etc historical records @ClimateOfGavin

@ed_hawkins Ocean records of last 50 years allow for calibration between surface and depths, & with historical records too @ClimateOfGavin

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@ed_hawkins

@joabbess @ClimateOfGavin Of course – deep ocean observations are very relevant, but not the only type of measurement that are useful!

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@joabbess

@ed_hawkins I’m sure there must be mines data going back several hundreds of years, doing same trick for mass earth temps @ClimateOfGavin

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@JohnRussell40 :-

@joabbess Surely mines data will be swamped by core heat? V. hot down there. @ed_hawkins @ClimateOfGavin

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@ClimateOfGavin (Gavin Schmidt)

@JohnRussell40 @joabbess @ed_hawkins borehole temperatures can in fact be deconvolved to show widespread recent warming Henry Pollack et al

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@joabbess

@ClimateOfGavin I assume you mean this https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/borehole/core.html … https://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/paleo/globalwarming/pollack.html … Think that’s pretty clear ! @JohnRussell40 @ed_hawkins

@ClimateOfGavin Interestingly reflects surface up-blip in 1940s, which Phil Jones et al keep trying to smooth @JohnRussell40 @ed_hawkins
@ClimateOfGavin That up-blip in 1940s was what got us all started looking for historical marine records: v useful @JohnRussell40 @ed_hawkins

—

@ed_hawkins I’m trying to hint that endless debates about cyclicity/statistics of air temps = time-wasting & not productive @ClimateOfGavin

@ed_hawkins If read 1 more mangled media article about statistical trends of air temperatures, going to scream & jump about @ClimateOfGavin

@ed_hawkins The overall graph speaks for itself – or it should – louder than anything https://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/mailings/2013/20130115_Temperature2012.pdf … Fig. 1 @ClimateOfGavin

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Categories
Academic Freedom

James Delingpole’s “Watermelons” Declared Work of Fiction


Image Credit : James Delingpole and/or Telegraph Media Group

Yes, you read that right – James Delingpole’s “authoritative“, tree-slaughtering, “Watermelons : How Environmentalists are Killing the Planet, Destroying the Economy and Stealing your Children’s Future” has been inviolably declared to be a work of fiction. In my local Public Library, anyway…well, it would have been, if the cataloguing staff had shared my educational insights.

“It’s full of nonsense !”, I fumed, “Look, I went to university to study climate change science and policy, and this book is a complete travesty of reality, a compilation of baseless fabrications, and chock-full of unfounded conspiracy theory.”

I was, as they say, a little het up. Therein, lay my error, for the librarian took a very frosty, Pooh-ish glance over the horn-rimmed, rather pointed look at me. Was I, he considered, stark, raving bonkers ?


You know, maybe, if I’d gone in there with a complete lack of concern about the state of the environment, maybe I wouldn’t have come across as so stern, nay earnest, nay, fundamentalistically-challenged. I mean, most of the people I meet concur – I’m a fun-loving, live-laughing, free spirit, so for me to throw my toys out of the perambulator, something must be horribly amiss.

This, naturally, is what James Delingpole’s purported cunning little plan relies on – his supposed bid for inglorious fame and global meddling influence. As far as I can determine, he deliberately sets out to irritate and annoy people; people who are so genuinely troubled by the state of the planet that they trouble themselves to get acquainted with some facts – the people who experience extreme cognitive dissonance when encountering Delingpole’s messy tissue of apparent mendacity and quite probably outright slander. Well, at least I assess it as myth-peddling and probable outright slander, and the Meteorological Office for one do agree with me on the fallaciousness bit.

Back to the cold stare of the librarian, and my rising annoyance. “If you don’t declare this a work of fiction, then you’ll have to start re-classifying all the science books as works of creative art, or something. What this man (note : I do accord him the honour of calling him a human) has regurgitated is nothing other than a collection of discredited rumours and debunked arguments – despite what look like passable references. It flies in the face of 150 years of science, tearing away at the foundational pillars of our civilisation, destroying harmony in society…”

I would have gone on, but I felt a peculiar lack of oxygen in my lungs, and that my face was on purple fire. Steam genuinely felt like it was issuing from my ears, and droplets of exasperated perspiration were beading on my rumpled brow.

I felt a sense of prophetic mission sweep over me. “This has got to be stopped !”, I vented. I raised my index finger to the skies. “I shall not rest until this work is re-catalogued as fiction in every Library in England.” But I knew, then, that I didn’t have the energy, or the time, or the networking skills, or the imperious nature, to fulfill this undoubtedly noble goal. So I turned sharp about and stormed (correction : stumbled) out of the door, leaving the librarian, I assume, to stare silently, and disgustedly, after me.

We shall have to leave it to another day for James Delingpole’s “opus iniquitus” to be perhaps withdrawn from the shelves, maybe because, as I like to imagine sometimes, the Trading Standards Authority pronounce it as defective in the matter of the author’s claims of expertise.

Please Note : This too has been a work of fiction, before you start sending out private investigators.

Categories
Academic Freedom Carbon Capture Peak Oil

Biofuels : Less Than Zero

Science journalism sometimes make me sigh out loud, and if you caught me reading it, you might see me visibly deflate, sinking into my padded commuter train seat with a look of anger-changes-nothing what’s-the-point despair painted across my empty sadface.

This time the source of my resignation and defeat is the magazine. I present you an article from issue 2894 of 10 December 2012, written by Bob Holmes, cleverly entitled “Less Than Zero”, with part of the O in Zero rubbed out as a design device to catch the eye (it does). The online version has the headline “Biofuel that’s better than carbon neutral”, with the subhead, “The race is on to create a biofuel that sucks carbon out of the sky and locks it away where it can’t warm the planet”

Why should the prospect of carbon-sequestrating vehicle fuel leave me so unexcited and underwhelmed ? Because of the fudges.

Fudge #1 : Carbon dioxide concentration levels

“The green sludge burbles away quietly in its tangle of tubes in the Spanish desert. Soaking up sunshine and carbon dioxide from a nearby factory, it grows quickly. Every day, workers skim off some sludge and take it away to be transformed into oil…”

This first paragraph is about algae being grown using concentrated industrial carbon dioxide from a nearby cement factory. The second paragraph confuses algae oil production using high levels of carbon dioxide with growing biomass in normal air with normal levels of carbon dioxide :-

“Indeed, this is no ordinary oil. It belongs to a magical class of “carbon negative” fuels, ones that take carbon out of the atmosphere and lock it away for good. The basic idea is fairly simple. You grow plants, in this case algae, which naturally draw CO2 from the atmosphere. After you extract the oil, you’re left with a residue that holds a substantial portion of the carbon…”

Let’s get this straight – the algal oil production of the first paragraph does not belong to “a magical class of “carbon negative” fuels…that naturally draw CO2 from the atmosphere.” In the first paragraph, the algae is being grown using industrial concentrations of carbon dioxide, not atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide.

Fudge #2 : Net carbon dioxide emissions

The algal biodiesel oil being produced in the first paragraph depends for its growth on carbon dioxide that would have been vented to the atmosphere from a “carbon positive” process – in other words, from a process that is a source of net greenhouse gas emissions to air. The algae grown using this diverted carbon dioxide will only temporarily capture this carbon dioxide – as (most of it) will be released again when it’s burned as fuel.

There is no way that the algal biodiesel oil mentioned in the first paragraph can be “carbon negative”.

Confirmation of this comes later on in the article, when actual representative numbers are used :-

“…Bio Fuel Systems, (BFS) a small company in Alicante, Spain, that uses cyanobacteria to make its “Blue Petroleum”…The numbers given to New Scientist by BFS president Bernard Stroiazzo illustrate the fraction of carbon that can be trapped by the process. To make a single barrel of oil, the algae suck a little over 2 tonnes of CO2 from the smokestack of the cement works. Not all of that stays out of the atmosphere, though. The algal cultures need regular mixing, which takes energy, as does supplying fertiliser and creating the oil through a patented process involving high heat and pressure. All the fossil fuels needed for these processes release about 700 kilogrammes of CO2. Burning the oil itself – in car engines, say – emits another 450 kg. The rest of the carbon – the equivalent of about 900 kg of CO2 – stays in the leftovers, an inorganic carbonate sludge that can be buried or mixed into concrete. “That will never go back in the atmosphere,” says Stroiazzo…”

So, let’s unpack that.

a. The cement works emits 2,000 kilograms of carbon dioxide that is captured for the algae growing process. These would have been direct greenhouse gas emissions to air had they not been diverted. So at this point we are 2,000 kg “carbon negative”.

b. Supplying fertiliser (which may or may not include accounting for manufacturing and transporting fertiliser) and making the oil through their patented pyrolysis (high heat and pressure) technique, causes 700 kg of carbon dioxide emissions (not to mention the carbon embedded in the equipment required). The numbers do not specify whether other kinds of greenhouse gas emissions are implicated, so let’s just stick with carbon dioxide. Subtacting this from the previous number makes us 1,300 kg “carbon negative”.

c. Burning the oil in engines releases another 450 kg of carbon dioxide. That makes us 850 kg “carbon negative”. Apparently this is “the equivalent of about 900 kg of CO2”, which is in the “leftovers”, which can be buried or used in hardcore or surfacing material.

So, a total of 2,000 + 700 + 450 = 3,150 kg of carbon dioxide is emitted, and only, say, 900 kg of carbon dioxide is sequestered. That’s around 29% of the total of the emissions, and at first glance, that looks rather good, but it disguises something. The 700 kg of emissions that were caused by the processing of the algal biofuel were unnecessary, and only 900 kg of the carbon dioxide is left sequestered at the end. That’s not a very good trade-off. In fact, that’s a very poor efficiency of overall carbon capture.

Fudge #3 : Dependency on industrial sources of concentrated carbon emissions and heat

And none of this would work without a source of concentrated carbon dioxide. “A few companies are developing technologies to extract and concentrate CO2 from the air. Global Thermostat, based in New York, has patented a process that uses chemicals and low-temperature waste heat – about 90 °C – to capture CO2 from a stream of air. Its pilot plant has been operating near San Francisco for more than a year, and a second is on the way, says co-founder Graciela Chichilnisky. The company has already signed an agreement to supply its technology to Algae Systems and is in talks with several other algal biofuel companies, she says.”

From the Global Thermostat website, under the heading “Exclusive Benefits”, “Highly flexible location – GT technology can be located anywhere – the only inputs needed are heat and air”. What this actually means is that the DAC (direct air capture) system being developed can only operate on the back end of an industrial facility. So this “GT technology” is only parasitical.

Fudge #4 : Not addressing the problem at the source

In the final paragraph of this article, Bob Holmes writes, “Since we can’t seem to keep the CO2 from entering the atmosphere, we’re left with only two ways to avoid trouble. We could embark on grand geoengineering schemes to cool the planet, all of which bring huge risks of unintended consequences (New Scientist, 22 September, p 30). Or we could try to pull some of the CO2 back out of the atmosphere, one car trip at a time…”

I would challenge him on that statement “…we can’t seem to keep the CO2 from entering the atmosphere…”. The alternatives are rather poor in terms of efficiency and potential harmful side effects. In all of this article there is no attempt to address whether all the carbon dioxide and heat coming from the industrial facility, and the transportation that requires low carbon fuels, are “necessary” in the first place – if consumer demand, globalised trading patterns and industrial processes were streamlined, the global economy could reduce its greenhouse gas emissions and waste heat output without the need for inefficient tinkering.

Fudge #5 : Progress is not as good as it seems

“…To date, the research facility has produced only a few thousand litres of fuel. However, a pilot plant – bankrolled by investors including Google, BP and GE – will start operation near Los Angeles this month… Cool Planet’s results are encouraging…”Even if carbon-negative biofuels turns out to be just a bit player, they will have done at least a little to reduced carbon emissions.”…”

“Encouraging” ?

Ah…BP. The oil and gas giant that distracted us away from their highly polluting hydrocarbon fuel production by setting up a solar power business.

It’s just more greenwash.

Categories
Efficiency is King Peak Natural Gas

Heating Demand Side Response

I have just joined a webcast entitled “How secure is Great Britain’s Electricity and Gas Supply Over the Next Decade”, the 2012 annual lecture to the Chartered Institution of Building Services Engineers (CIBSE), given by Alistair Buchanan CBE, Chief Executive of the Office of the Gas and Electricity Markets (Ofgem), the UK’s gas and electricity regulator. It will shortly be archived for review online :-


https://www.cibse.org/index.cfm?go=events.view&item=4492

The speaker said a number of interesting and valuable things, and the questions and answers at the end were very perceptive. What struck me was the huge potential there is for Demand Side Response (DSR) in balancing energy supply with load, over short periods, such as during “peak” power demand at around 17:00 (5pm) each day. Whilst the UK Government think that DSR is going to be mostly in the area of power – aggregating consumers who are willing to shift their electricity usage or forego it at critical times, I think this evening’s lecture convinces me that the big win is going to be in reducing heating demand as a collective response.

What Alistair Buchanan drew out was a fairly compelling narrative. With the stresses on the UK’s energy system, there is likely to be an increased reliance on power generation from the burning of Natural Gas, whilst competition for gas within the European Union is growing stronger, and suppliers of gas to the EU are becoming riskier. To my mind, the “generation gap” looks worryingly much closer than most people keep saying – it looks like there could be zero spare capacity in the electricity grids by around 2015 / 2016.

It’s more important to keep the lights on than keep meeting residential and office building gas demand for space heating – in fact, if the power goes out, virtually nobody will be able to use their gas heating systems. But if the power is kept on, people are going to use their gas heating systems, which will then risk the lights going out – in the event of low gas stocks and supplies, because so much power is made from gas.

Space heating is overwhelmingly the biggest user of energy in most buidlings. The best solution is “demand destruction”, permanently removing demand for Natural Gas heating by mass insulation of properties, and corporate and public buildings. However, in the middle of a dark and cold winter’s evening, if gas stores are running low, and there is strong demand for gas across Europe, then short-term reductions in gas use, arranged with millions of customers, could in fact, keep everybody’s lights on.

Some message would be sent, and people would know to turn down their central building thermostats by 5 degrees C. Elegantly simple. But who is going to organise this sort of gas demand response ? And how much could people be paid for it ? We already know that electricity demand side response payments are going to amount to less than around £100 a year, and this has to be compared against utility bills that could reach £1,000 or more. But heating demand side response could be so significant, it could be much more valuable.

I can think of a number of people who would be prepared to put on extra woollen jumpers and spend their evening down at the public house rather than turn the Gas Central Heating on. For around 5 evenings a year. If they’re going to receive a £250 electronic transfer each Winter. Or money off their gas bill.

Let’s hope both power and gas Demand Side Response makes it into the UK Government’s up-and-coming Energy Bill. It would make a lot of sense.

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Fossil Fuel Company Obligation

I knew I knew her from somewhere, Ms Henrietta Lynch PhD, from the UCL Energy Institute. I had the feeling we’d sheltered together from the rain/police helicopters at a Climate Camp somewhere, but she was fairly convinced we’d crossed paths at the Frontline Club, where, if she was recalling correctly, I probably tried to pick an “difference of opinion” with somebody, which she would have remembered as more than a little awkward.

Why ? Because when I’m surrounded by smart people displaying self-confidence, I sometimes feel pushed to try to irritate them out of any complacency they may be harbouring. Niceness can give me itchy feet, or rather emotional hives, and I don’t see why others should feel settled when I feel all scratchy.

So here we were at a Parliamentary event, and I was on my best behaviour, neither challenging nor remonstrative, but all the same, I felt the urge to engage Henrietta in disagreement. It was nothing personal, really. It was all about cognition, perception – worldviews, even. After my usual gauche preamble, I snuck in with a barbed gambit, “The United Nations climate change process has completely failed.” A shadow of anxiety crossed her brow. “Oh, I wouldn’t say that”, said Henrietta Lynch. She went on to recount for me the validity of the UN climate talks, and how much further we are because of the Kyoto Protocol. “Ruined by Article 12”, I said, “…the flexible mechanisms”. She said I shouldn’t underestimate the effort that had gone into getting everybody into the room to talk about a response to climate change. I said, it would be useful if the delegates to the climate talks had power of some kind – executive decision-making status. Henrietta insisted that delegates to the climate talks do indeed have authority.

I said that the really significant players, the oil and gas production companies, were not at the climate talks, and that there would be no progress until they were. I said that the last time the UN really consulted the oil and gas companies was in the 1990s, and the outcome of that was proposals for carbon trading and Carbon Capture and Storage. Each year, I said, the adminstration of the climate talks did the diplomatic equivalent of passing round a busker’s hat to the national delegations, begging for commitments to carbon emissions reductions. Besides leading to squabbling and game-playing, the country representatives do not even have the practical means of achieving these changes. Instead, I said, the energy production companies should be summoned to the climate talks and given obligations – to decarbonise the energy resources they sell, and to increase their production of renewable and sustainable energy. I said that without that, there will be no progress.

Oil and gas companies always point to energy demand as their get-out-of-jail-free card – they insist that while the world demands fossil fuel energy, they, the energy resource companies, are being responsible in producing it. Their economists say that consumer behaviour can be modified by pricing carbon dioxide emissions, and yet the vast majority of the energy they supply is full of embedded carbon – there is no greener choice. They know that it is impossible to set an economically significant carbon price in any form, that there are too many forces against it, and that any behavioural “signal” from carbon pricing is likely to be swallowed up by volatility in the prices of fossil fuels, and tax revenue demands. Most crucially, the oil and gas companies know that fossil fuels will remain essential for transport vehicles for some time, as it will be a long, hard struggle to replace all the drive engines in the world, and high volumes of transport are essential because of the globalised nature of trade.

Oil and gas companies have made token handwaving gestures towards sustainability. BP has spent roughly 5% of its annual budget on renewable energy, although it’s dropped its solar power division, and has now dropped its cellulosic ethanol facility. BP says that it will “instead will focus on research and development“. Research and development into what, precisely ? Improved oil and gas drilling for harsh environmental conditions like the Arctic Ocean or sub-sea high depth, high pressure fields ? How many renewable energy pipedreams are exhausted ? BP are willing to take competitors to court over biobutanol, but even advanced techniques to produce this biofuel are not yet commercialised.

So, the oil and gas majors do not appear to be serious about renewable energy, but are they also in denial about fossil fuels ? All business school graduates, anybody who has studied for an MBA or attended an economics course, they all come out with the mantra that technology will deliver, that innovation in technology will race ahead of the problems. Yet, as the rolling disasters of the multiple Fukushima Dai-ichi nuclear reactor accident and the continuing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico from the blowout of the Horizon Deepwater drilling rig show, technological advancement ain’t what it used to be. Put not your faith in technology, for engineering may fail.

For the oil and gas companies to be going after the development of unconventional fossil fuel resources is an unspoken, tacit admission of failure – not only of holding a bold vision of change, but also a demonstration of the failure of being able to increase production from discoveries of more conventional petroleum and Natural Gas. It is true that oil and gas exploration has improved, and that technology to drill for oil and gas has improved, but it could be said that the halting pace of technological advancement means that the growth in fossil fuel exploitation is not strong enough to meet projected demand. Technology does not always make things more efficient – the basic fossil fuel resources are getting much poorer, and perhaps scarcer.

There is some evidence that global petroleum crude oil production rates have peaked, despite BP adding significant South American heavy oil fields to their annual Statistical Review of World Energy within the last few years. Some of the jitteriness in total production is down to geopolitical factors, like the chokehold that the United States has imposed on Iran via economic sanctions, and some of it is related to consumption patterns, but there is an element of resource failure, as indicated in this IMF report from last month :-

“Over the past decade the world economy has experienced a persistent increase in oil prices. While part of this may have been due to continued rapid demand growth in emerging markets, stagnant supply also played a major role. Figure 1 shows the sequence of downward shifts in the trend growth rate of world oil production since the late 1960s. The latest trend break occurred in late 2005, when the average growth rate of 1.8 percent per annum of the 1981-2005 period could no longer be sustained, and production entered a fluctuating plateau that it has maintained ever since.”

There is an increasing amount of evidence and projection of Peak Oil from diverse sources, so perhaps our attention should be drawn to it. If this type of analysis is to be trusted, regardless of whether the oil and gas companies pursue unconventional oil, change is inevitable. Bringing the oil and gas companies onto the world stage at the United Nations climate talks and demanding a reduction in fossil fuel production would be an straightford thing to make commitments to – as it is happening already. A huge facesaver in many respects – except that it does not answer the energy security question – how the world is going to be able to adapt to falling fossil fuel supplies. You see, besides Peak Oil, there are other peaks to contend with – it will not simply be a matter of exchanging one energy resource with another.

Can the oil and gas companies hold on by selling us Natural Gas to replace failing oil ? Only if Natural Gas itself is not peaking. As the oil and gas companies drill deeper, more Natural Gas is likely to be found than petroleum oil, but because they are so often associated, Peak Oil is likely to be followed quite sharply by Peak Natural Gas. But does anybody in the oil and gas companies really know ? And if they did, would they be able to let their shareholders and world’s media know about it without their businesses crumbling ?

What I want to know is : with all the skills of dialogue, collaboration, and facilitation that the human race has developed, why can Civil Society not engage the oil and gas companies in productive communication on these problems ?

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Futureproof Renewable Sustainable Energy #3

PRASEG Annual Conference 2012
https://www.praseg.org.uk/save-the-date-praseg-annual-conference/
“After EMR: What future for renewable and sustainable energy?”
31st October 2012
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster
Twitter hashtag : #PRASEG12

Addendum to Part 1 and Part 2

Dr Mayer Hillman of the Policy Studies Institute has contributed a summary of the questions that he raised at the PRASEG Annual Conference on Wednesday 31st October 2012, together with more background detail, and I am pleased to add this to the record of the day, and wish him a happy 82nd year !

PRASEG Conference 31 October 2012

Questions raised by Dr. Mayer Hillman (Policy Studies Institute) in the following sessions

The Future of Renewable and Sustainable Energy: Panel Session

I can only assume from the statements of each of the panellists of this session that their point of departure is that consumers have an inalienable right to engage in as much energy-intensive activity as they wish. Thereafter, it is the Government’s responsibility to aim to meet as much of the consequent demand as possible, subject only to doing so in the most cost-effective and least environmentally-damaging ways possible.

However as Laura Sandys pointed out in her introduction, “policy must reflect the realities of the world we live in”. The most fundamental of these realities is that the planet’s atmosphere only has a finite capacity to safely absorb further greenhouse gas emissions. Surely, that must be the point of departure for policy if we are to ensure a long-term future for life on earth. That future can only be assured by the adoption of zero-carbon lifestyles as soon as conceivably possible. Simply aiming to increase the contribution of the renewables and of the efficiency with which fossil fuels are used is clearly bound to prove inadequate as the process of climate change is already irreversible.

Demand side policy: The missing element?: Panel Session

Given that the process of climate change cannot now be reversed, at best only slowed down by our actions, continued development of means of matching the predicted huge increase in energy demand whilst minimising its contribution to climate change is seen to be the logical way forward. However, any burning of fossil fuels adds to the already excessive concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere.

The only solution now is the one advocated by the Global Commons Institute since 1996. The extent of GCI’s success, both national and international, is very apparent by looking at the Institute’s website https://www.gci.org.uk. Contraction and Convergence is the framework, that is the contraction of greenhouse gases to a safe level and their convergence to equal per capita shares across the world’s population.

Our chair for this session has been a supporter for several years. Why cannot the panellists see this to be the way ahead rather than taking small steps which, in aggregate, cannot conceivably prevent catastrophe in the longer term?

Keynote address by the Right Hon. Edward Davey, Secretary of State, DECC

The Secretary-of-State has just confirmed the fears that I expressed in the first session of this conference, namely that he sees it to be the Government’s responsibility, if not duty, to ensure that, if at all possible, the burgeoning growth in energy demand predicted for the future is met. To that end, he has just outlined stages of a strategy intended to enable comparisons to be made on “a level playing field” between different types of electricity generation as energy is increasingly likely to be supplied in the form of electricity. To do so, in his view, it is essential that a market price for the release of a tonne of CO2 emissions into the atmosphere is determined.

I have two great reservations about such a process. First, if the price is to cover all the costs incurred then, for instance, the real costs of large scale migration of vast populations fleeing the regions that will be rendered uninhabitable by climate change caused by the increase in the concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere (with more than 100 years continuous impacts) would have to be included. I fail to see how that could be realistically established, let alone its moral implications being acceptable.

Second, we know that we have already passed the stage that would have allowed us to reverse the process of global climate change – just consider the melting of the Arctic ice cap. That market price for the tonne of CO2 emissions, insofar as it could be determined, would have to rise exponentially owing to the planet’s non-negotiable capacity to safely absorb further emissions. Yet the market requires a fixed price to enable decisions affecting the future to be made.

Categories
Assets not Liabilities Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Policy Warfare Political Nightmare

Futureproof Renewable Sustainable Energy #2

PRASEG Annual Conference 2012
https://www.praseg.org.uk/save-the-date-praseg-annual-conference/
“After EMR: What future for renewable and sustainable energy?”
31st October 2012
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster
Twitter hashtag : #PRASEG12

Continued from Part 1. Followed by Part 3.

PLEASE NOTE : The record is NOT verbatim and should not be treated as such. Check against delivery, I think they say in the trade. If I have scribbled incomprehensively or missed something, I have interpolated according to the spirit of the context. I am open to correction or challenge on my record of the event.

[Start of second session : “Demand side policy: The missing element ?]

[Caroline Lucas MP]

Demand side is often the poor cousin – it’s a shame to leave it to the end of the meeting.

[Andrew Warren, Association for the Conservation of Energy (ACE)]

Let’s run through the patronised world of energy efficiency. The Committee on Climate Change always emphasises two things are going to have to happen to de-carbonise the economy. First, new generation – but also, what do we do with consumption ? How do we deliver the society we want while consuming less ? Germany has a broadly similar aim – competitive energy, energy security. DECC projects a doubling, or even a tripling of electricity consumption. Germany tries to achieve exactly the same objectives, but consuming 25% to 40% less energy overall. What have we been doing in the UK ? Passing EU Directives, in particular, the recent Energy Efficiency Directive. This is interesting – we have never had targets on energy efficiency before. Energy efficiency is moderately politically uncontroversial – apart from some of the things put forward in connect with the work of the Department for Communities and Local Government (CLG) over the Building Regulations. It is key that new build should follow the new standards, and it is also key that when improving existing buildings, that the new standards be used. The Guardian last Saturday carried a front page explaining that CLG would look *again* at Building Regulations [ https://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2012/oct/26/government-building-standards-review-regulation https://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2012/oct/31/dangers-bonfire-building-regulations ]. The original Government consultation concluded in March 2011 – but there has been no conclusions or report since then. Unfortunately, we need those conclusions by October 2012 in order to maintain progress on the agreed time schedule. What do we see from CLG ? A “conservatory tax”. There are problems in DECC on issues like Fuel Poverty. There are 5 million people in the UK in fuel poverty, and the only Government-funded programme to address this will be terminated in March 2013. Even though the funding for the programme was cut by two thirds last year, it didn’t manage to spend all its money. Perhaps there will be measures in the EMR to impact energy efficiency ? We need to modify the Capacity Mechanism [of the EMR] so that we can incorporate demand side into that. Parallel to the work on the Energy Bill, there is the Energy Bill Revolution, outside Parliament, which argues that if we are start increasing the cost of energy through policy and measures such as the EMR and the EU Emissions Trading Scheme (EU ETS) modifications, then those funds ought to come back to consumers – this happens in Germany. There is some good news – this year we have at last got a strategic body which will deal with the deployment of energy efficiency [the Energy Efficiency Deployment Office (EEDO)]. We do have the Green Deal and the smart meter rollout, but the key thing we’ve never had before is some entity in Government that speaks strategically on demand side.

[Peter Boyd, Expert Chair, Energy Efficiency Deployment Office (EEDO)/Carbon War Room]

I work one day per week for EEDO. My “day job” is with the Carbon War Room where we’re looking at the left hand side of the McKinsey MACC cost curves globally. [The McKinsey & Company Greenhouse Gas Abatement Cost Curves show on the left hand side where carbon savings are cost-negative and so produce payback : https://www.mckinsey.com/client_service/sustainability/latest_thinking/~/media/mckinsey/dotcom/client_service/sustainability/cost%20curve%20pdfs/impactfinancialcrisiscarboneconomicsghgcostcurvev21.ashx ] We work on marine shipping […] This is right in the wheelhouse of what we are talking about today. A strategy on energy efficiency has to be linked to carbon targets. For example, the world economy currently produces 768 grammes of Carbon for each dollar of GDP. To get to sustainable levels of emissions [the two degrees Celsius UNFCCC target], that figure has to drop to 6 gC/$GDP. This is a complete pivot for the world economy. If we don’t address energy efficiency, where there are savings, are jobs, are growth. The role of the EEDO is explicitly aiming to fill in the joins in DECC and other departments. The key place where the economy and the environment can work together. There is a suite of announcements to come – to tackle market failure by market failure, new policies and measures are needed. We work with many departments and stakeholders. We held Summer briefings. If anyone wants to take part in the process, they’re welcome to speak with me. There is a recognition that demand response (demand side response (DSR) and energy demand response (EDR)) is underweight in the current Energy Bill. The team in DECC will look at how EDR can be put into EMR – which it is not covered by yet. We are coming out with a draft report on strategy in November 2012. Why is capital not flowing to get white vans out on the roads, rolling out insulation ? We are committed to working with practitioners. With the EMR it will be helpful to get behind it and not just throw rocks at it – it won’t help. I’m passionate about energy efficiency. The UK has a fantastic opportunity to be a world leader – a country with poor weather and leaky buildings.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

On the Capacity Mechanism, our role in the EMR is to be the delivery body, not the counterparty [to the various Capacity Mechanism and Contracts for Difference (CfD) contracting and strike price]. For the CfD, we will assess eligibility of projects. We will be running auctions for Demand Side Response (DSR) [aggregators of DSR such as Kiwi Power https://www.kiwipowered.com/ will be capable of taking part in these auctions]. We will take responsibility for energy security outcomes, and monitor costs and progress. We won’t be setting government policy. We will have access to sensitive information under the EMR, but we will not use that other than for EMR policy-based contracts. What does the Capacity Obligation (under contracts for the Capacity Mechanism) mean for EMR ? The idea of the Capacity Mechanism is to ensure that generators supply electricity when needed, or DSR can reduce demand “when needed” – for example on a cold Winter’s night. We need to redefine what “when needed” means to make sure the consumer is protected. There is such a potential for DSR to be really valuable. The National Grid is working with DECC to access DSR ahead of the Energy Bill. We are looking at consumer issues and continuing discussions with DSR providers – who would supply balancing to the grid as well as overall demand reduction. We host the National Grid forums nation-wide. We lead on developing the pipeline of projects needed for energy security – what products can be packaged, and what the lead time is for energy storage compared to DSR. We are looking at measurement and verification (M&V) criteria, so that we can all have confidence in DSR packages, and that M&V does not present a barrier to entry in the DSR market, and future-proofing. We’re not there yet. We’re still on the journey. This is a transitional scheme and we are pleased with our engagement with DSRs [DSR providers and aggregators] so far.

[Judith Ward, Director, Sustainability First (ex-National Grid)]

Sustainability First is a small environmental think tank running three year multi-project. We are looking for the scope for DR (demand reduction) and DR (demand response). We need to understand the economic values for customers and industry players. We have a strong practical focus – some of us are in the Low Carbon Forum/Fund and Ofgem and so on. All our papers are published as we go [https://www.sustainabilityfirst.org.uk/]. We aim to produce a “best picture” on how we use electricity in the country today. We’ve done a survey of large industrial customers and done household data research. Without a clear grasp of how consumers really use electricity, we are working with ill-informed risk. In understanding electricity usage the key is in re-engineering the consumer. Our fifth report is out next week. DSR is value today for sale into the UK balancing and “peak” market [peak load is a daily occurence, when a much higher demand for electricity lasts for somewhere between 30 minutes and a couple of hours, on a fairly regular daily basis. For the realtime example :
https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/Demand60.htm https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/demand24.htm https://www.nationalgrid.com/uk/Electricity/Data/Realtime/Demand/Demand8.htm ] For the large customers on half-hourly distribution network, use the triad scheme to avoid charges [ https://www.flexitricity.com/core-services/triad-management ] Do we need yet more DSR – or is it premature at this point ? We need to understand schemes, how the services will supply flexible and peak avoidance. For the Capacity Mechanism, we need to introduce price information – however basic – so that customers know what they can earn by taking part [in DSR aggregator contracts]. Sources of flexible, suitable load are somewhat limited in the GB electricity system – but there is a surprising amount of peak electricity heating in commercial and some residential applications. But is there potential to shift it to overnight charging ? For retailers there is little incentive to promote DSR at scale. For the vast majority of the 29 million customers, the smart meter rollout is far away, but the settlement system adjustment is close at hand. The question is how to unlock smarter markets. System flexibility has to increase by the 2020s, so will need a more controllable load – and the system costs will go up. The search is on for new sources of flexibility in electricity load. At present there are incentives for electricity demand reduction – lower bills. But from the perspective of the electricity system, not all electricity demand reduction is useful. The time of day and season related. “Time of use” tariffs should promote electricity demand response, assigning value. The Green Deal and the Energy Company Obligation (ECO) should work in a more concerted way to deliver more demand response. Let’s be clear about the priorities on what to do first. Electricity has specific end uses – targetting those could make a difference today. Light efficiency schemes are not very glamorous…

[Questions]

[Tim Probert, New Power]

A question for National Grid. The existing balancing mechanisms – will they be part of the Capacity Mechanism ? Or will there be extra money available to balance grid load [under the new regime] ? The cash out settlement system charges will need reviewing – will more revenue be available for those with flexibility to help in balancing load ?

[Jenny Holland, Association for the Conservation of Energy (ACE)]

Is long-term demand reduction in your frame in the Capacity Mechanism ? It is simply not going to happen if the draft Energy Bill stay the same. In the United States, the market is “technology-neutral”, but only 10% comes from demand control. If DSR and energy efficiency are not targetted, they won’t happen. Generators will be able to bid in at a lower cost than DSR and energy efficiency – as they will get money for selling their electricity, *and* for the Capacity Mechanism. We are favouring modification of the Energy Bill with a merit order that favours low carbon and demand reduction, not letting gas wing its way though and swamp the Capacity Mechanism.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

Absolutely agree. We should not be locking ourselve into long-term contracts with the implication of demand in future that just won’t be there. To date our focus has been DSR, not long-term permanent cuts in electricity use.

[Peter Boyd, EEDO/Carbon War Room]

From the strategy side we are looking at options for permanent demand reduction [energy demand reduction (EDR)]. We can exploit international learnings. We’ve recognised that DSR is just a small part of the EDR landscape. This is a market failure – where poor information is preventing [development].

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Th National Grid are “implementing policy coming through”. There is a complete absence of anything in the draft Energy Bill on the demand side as opposed to addressing load balancing and peak demand issues. We should be trying to do what Germany and some American States are doing – allowing direct comparison. Which is cheaper – investing in new generation or investing in demand side reduction ? The cheapest way in almost all circumstances is to reduce the overall level of demand. It’s important that the National Grid flag up the implications of yesterday’s solution dominating.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

We are pleased to be involved with the DSR pilot scheme – demand avoidance is appreciated – especially when dealing daily peak demand.

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

Demand side and the capacity market – I get the sense that they are jelly-like because it is not clear what the Capacity Market is intended to do – either on supply or demand side. It’s hard to know if the DSR is is going to be locked out or not. Is it going to bring forward the merit cap ? In the capacity market, how much is likely to be backup generation [generation brought on at particular times when renewable energy is a a low], not turn-down [when plant is turned from full power output to standby] ? We need to look at the carbon emissions implications as well.

[Questionner]

Maybe we should look at it this way – “peak” equals “cap” and “demand” equals “energy” [to meet peak demand we need to cap it by demand reduction – temporary or long term, but to meet usual demand we need new and balanced generation]. Perhaps we should value these separately. There is clearly a market failure, there has been little supply increase. Could electricity distributors drive or aggregate demand response ? Perhaps they are better placed to do that ? There is more trust ?

[Mayer Hillman]

Are you sufficiently well-informed that climate change is now irreversible ? In the light of that, the only logical course of action is the Contraction and Convergence (C&C) global framework solution of equal per capita shares and rationing. In 20 years I haven’t seen any alternative. Does that not put that into perspective ? [The main argument of C&C is that there is no point in pricing or trading carbon unless there is a global cap enforced.]

[Matthew Parlour, “working for Lord Browne of Madingley”]

After half a century [of efforts on energy efficiency and energy savings] we have learned the consumers do not respond. An example is the difference in Americans being offered free energy demand measures. If the offer was on a website where they had to click to order something sent directly to them, they would not do it. However, if they were offered the same free product by telephone, most accepted it. How much have you thought through the rationality basics ? How do you see the balance of incentives offered to consumers and mandated changes ?

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Mayer, you remain the voice of my conscience. The ice caps are melting. There is less and less opportunity to stop exploitation of Arctic oil – one of the single most depressing things – climate change is exacerbating, leading to greate availability of what caused it in the first place. In ones darkest moments, I turn around and say, oh my God, what are we going to do ? But there was an 18th Century philosopher who posed the problem of a man who did nothing because he thought he could only do a little. I would like to respond to Lord Browne’s assistant – and interesting question regarding the irrational behaviour of consumers. I am impressed by your boss, he changed BP. He was the first head of an international oil and gas company to say climate change is real. He demanded from all his operational groups 20% more efficiency [making the company more efficient and sustainable into the long term in getting oil to market to be burned to emit carbon dioxide…] – a diktat from the top. The rest of the world needs to follow what your boss proposed. With his new venture Cuadrilla, that “Prince Charming” George Osborne was enthusiastic at an event about the prospects for shale gas. Every other energy minister says that reduction in consumption is required. I hoep your boss not only asks for generous tax breaks, but also asks for support for the other more cost-effective solution – reduction of energy demand.

[Peter Boyd, EEDO/Carbon War Room]

You vote in a democracy – not because your individual vote really counts [but because of the accumulated effect]. The single biggest failure of the Non-Governmental Organisations (NGOs) at Copenhagen was to demand a global treaty, a single collective political goal – but the white van still needs to be paid to turn up [in other words : the practical details of creating incentives to get insulation done is more important in the long run compared to aspirations on paper.] It is becoming clear that Mitigation of and Adaptation to climate change needs to be joined by a third actor – Suffering. And we can only choose one of two options. We can either do Mitigation and Suffer [the cost] or we can do Adaptation and Suffer [the climate change chaos]. Climate change singularity is one of the problems our brains are not wired to compute. We’re not structured to solve this. We can we do now ? Energy efficiency. While the policy guys are going for the right hand side of the McKinsey MACC curves, and how we’re going to finance that, we’re going for the left hand side. Most of the technologies that can really make a difference are already 20 years old. And it will be a better world that we’re in – not a hair shirt and sandals world. On rationality – if we make these really efficient buildings of our workplaces and then walk around in tee shirts [with the heating turned up] at home, then we haven’t solved the problem. When energy efficiency measures do go in, we can minimise irrationality. What’s the electricity distributor’s role in delivering energy efficiency ? This is the Government’s iPod moment. The array of policies to solve this will get more complex, just like the technology of the iPod was more complex than previously. But the interface of the iPod was clearer, more attractive, and so was usable and popular. A company needs to come round to your house, do an assessment and say “this is what will work for you”.

[Caroline Lucas MP]

I welcome the stress on urgency [in relation to Mayer Hillman’s question]

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

The issue about possible supply failure. There has been retail failure in the settlement system – complex and opaque – a broken link between how upstream costs are recovered (on a socialised basis) weakens their resolve to offer cheaper tariffs. I think that if we can fix some of the issues in the retail market […] I think it’s too early to decide if we want a DSO-led [distribution system operator in the electricity grid] world or a supplier-led world. If we want to do a community project, if will be very difficult to get incentives.

[Roisin Quinn, National Grid]

Somebody needs to lead. Climate change. Can we do anything about it ? We have to try. We need a new electricity demand profile in the UK power market that flattens the evening peak load – then we could marketise this.

[Rebecca Aspin, powerPerfector]

Energy reduction should be 30% – 40% of our carbon targets. We are not really being energy efficiency focussed. We are disappointed that voltage (power) control is not in the SAP [the Standard Assessment Procedure for permitted technologies for consideration of Energy Bill subsidies]. It seems that policy cannot cope with electricity – they are more heat-focussed.

[Consumer Focus]

Regarding the problem with consumers being rational to accept energy reduction – the bigger problem is the implementation of DSR. There is not much money available to get consumers engaged in DSR. £90 per annum would be available – but not to consumers. Heat storage takes up a lot of space – how are we getting consumers to do this ?

[Judith Ward, Sustainability First]

The values in our eenrgy system are not there.

[Roisin Quinn]

There are savings, but they don’t add up to much. It comes down to questions such as – my cup of tea – really not worth the money to forego it.

[Peter Boyd]

Is £90 enough in a £1,200 energy bill ? It will be worth it to have Tesco turn off their air conditioning for a minute, but… Is there sufficient cash to see what is going on. The power of education – waiting for the kids coming through who know about energy demand ? We need a way to measure changes.

[Andrew Warren]

[to powerPerfector] You are not the only technology that is not in the SAP – in fact you have to consider the RDSAP [Reduced Data Standard Assessment Procedure] and a lot more technologies are not in there. On providing incentives : in the last few days, the Green Deal has put in place a 15 month £125 million cashback scheme rewarding you for implementing Green Deal measures – you don’t even need to take the Green Deal finance. This is to kickstart the Green Deal, and that is essential as [the Government’s own figures show] in 2013 there will be a reduction in insulation installation projected, if not.

[Caroline Lucas MP]

This does come down to political will. And the politicians will only act when more people want them to act. The population assume the situation is not serious as we say, or otherwise the politicians would have acted on it…

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

Ed Davey considers delivering demand side as being his number one priority – I know his commitment to energy efficiency. It has been an interesting day in DECC…

[Keynote Address]

[Ed Davey MP, Secretary of State, Department of Energy and Climate Change, and on the Energy and Climate Change Select Committee]

I would like to offer my thanks to this group for over the years pushing an agenda I believe is incredibly important – something I’ve been involved in for many years […] We have a Bill that we’re bringing to Parliament, a really critical bill for the low carbon agenda. The challenge that faces the country is that demand is set to increase, due to economic and population growth, with the electrification of transport and the electrification of heat. As demand is likely to go up as we de-carbonise, supply is going down. A fifth of all power plants are to close by 2020 – there is a huge need for investment – £100 billion in new low carbon electricity generation by 2020 and the network grids and so on. One of the real opportunities for the UK – which is struggling with growth and needs to get the economy going. Energy is often the largest [sector for growth] available. In the national investment plan, £250 billion is needed for infrastructure investment – nearly half of that in energy, several times more than needed in transport, six times more than for water, and seven times more than needed for Crossrail. We have to double investment in energy to meet that. This is a huge opportunity for growth. It’s important for energy security, keeping the lights on and for industry. It’s a huge opportunity – and we can use it to diversify – Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) [to capture greenhouse gas emissions from coal burning] and nuclear and renewable energy all playing a part. It will insulate us from fossil fuel price spikes and the impact of [energy] bills, and meet our carbon targets. It is a timely opportunity that we need to grasp. The great thing about energy infrastructure investment is that it is available in all parts of the country – a good way of rebalancing the economy. The argument has always been that infrastructure planning takes too long – 4 to 5 years before the first sod is turned. But much energy investment money is ready. If we look at which part of the economy is growing, even in difficult times – it is the green sector. The whole point of EMR is to allow low carbon investment to happen – switching to a more low carbon [economy]. A key element is Contracts for Difference [Feed-in Tariffs] – a really smart investment instrument. On nuclear power we are negotiating bilaterally. And for Carbon Capture and Storage we have a competition. It is quite statist, quite interventionist. The EMR with CfD is about moving u from where we are through four phases to where markets are leading investment at low cost. In Phase 1, the Feed-in Tariff Contracts for Difference (CfD) prices will be set administratively [just as] had the Renewable Obligation prices set in the July review. The National Grid has already issued evidence for the strike price – to try to bring all technology groups down in cost and level the playing field. Some people think this is quite complicated. We will set a fair price, the strike price for low carbon electricity – a variable premium to top up the market price. Generators will pay back if their prices are higher than the strike price, therefore it is more cost-effective for the customer. I’ve spoken to investors – the CfD is really attractive – it offers a predictable return – smoothing out volatility. We will still get market efficiencies as companies will have to sell into the market. [In the Energy Bill I will have] powers to give project developers the comfort that they need [to arrange financing]. In 2017, Phase 2 will want to move to price discovery – with technology-specific auctions, such as with onshore wind generation. By Phase 3, current technologies will have matured, so we will move to more technology-neutral auctions. We could see all technologies competing on cost – clean affordable energy security. There is a huge amount of detail in this. We will publish in a few weeks’ time. Developers want early certainty – looking for entering into the CfD early. We will be providing commitment at a reasonable pace. Discussions about the counterparty and assuring its workability – this will probably be a company owned by the Government. In addition is the Capacity Market – as more of our electricity comes from renewable energy and less from gas etc, we will need to be sure we have enough to come on [in the case of wide variability in solar and wind power supply]. The National Grid is projecting shortfalls, so we will guarantee a steady payment for capacity – we are particularly keen to see a DSR when at the margins [of operability] at Peak [Demand, daily] organised by aggregators to prevent the prices peaking. We want to design a Capacity Market to ensure DSR plays its part. Liquidity is really important in the wholesale market – meaning for lower prices. I don’t think this is working well – we need a more diverse [energy mix]. Some think we should reintroduce the Pool, but that doesn’t solve the problem of lack of liquidity in the forward market. Ofgem has been working on potential reform – the threat of regulating has moved industry, particularly in the day-ahead market. I’ve made clear we’ll have backstop powers to promote liquidity […] On DSR, there is a real demand that Government drives permanent reduction in energy demand. This is crucial, and we are publishing our energy efficiency strategy soon. The Green Deal is going to be extremely exciting – we will see people having warmer homes, cheaper bills and lower carbon. [DSR will be either in the Bill o complementary to the Bill]. The whole point of the EMR is to move towards a low carbon economy – I think these proposals are very radical – they need backing. This is a real radical step forward.

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

You would have to be heroic to believe that you are anticipating increased electricity demand. Why have the Government got it so wrong ? If hand on heart you believe that electrification of transport will replace petrol and diesel in all cars and lorries. 70% of our gas is used to heat, and if that moves to being more electrical, it is heroic to suggest that electricity demand can go down. Our proposals are based on good calculations.

[Questions]

[Questionner]

Do you accept front page news ? That the Energy Minister has actively undermined your policy ?

[Ed Davey MP]

I hope you note the Prime Minister quotes. The Prime Minister has supported us, [saying that] although John Hayes made those remarks, it is not Government policy. I have taken personal charge of renewable energy. I am in charge of renewable energy strategy, including of onshore wind.

[Julian O’Halloran, BBC]

The implication from [John] Hayes implies that there will be a moratorium on wind power as there is enough in the pipeline already. Are you ruling out a moratorium while you are Secretary of State ?

[Ed Davey MP]

We are on track to deliver our aspirations (not targets) by 2020 as part of our renewable energy strategy, we are really getting motoring in renewable energy investment, rather than saying we don’t need any more […] I am conscious of the debate in certain parts of rural England and the Conservative back benches – 100 of them wrote to me on Day 1. It is their democratic right to voice their opinion. I issued a consultation on community energy, that new renewable energy infrastructure is part of their community and brings them benefit too. If we can show that people can benefit from onshore as well as other energy […] The opinions polls show that a significant majority are in favour, even if close to their homes. I got 62% of my Constituency vote. Wind farms are already more popular than I have ever been.

[Summit Skills]

The Green Deal Skills Alliance. We are not seeting [companies] committed to training. How can we stimulate demand ?

[Mayer Hillman]

You have confirmed my worst fears. Your aim is to match demand as efficiently and effectively as possible with the least environmental damage. Rather than the eonomy, in achieving a level playing field you should seek to attract a proper value to a tonne of Carbon. Years ago a tonne of Carbon was cheaper than now. I don’t see how you can achieve [low carbon] with a fixed price. The equation has got to include the displacement of ecological refugees.

[Jessica Lennard, Edelman]

In a statement you made [today], you said there are no targets or cap on renewable energy. Can the Minister comment on biomass ?

[Ed Davey MP]

There is a proposed cap on biomass – it is not completely financially within our envelope. Biomass investment is a bit lumpy, and [support for it] would displace [other energy technologies]. On demand for the Green Deal we’ve made a cashback available to encourage early movers. The Local Authorities are running [training] courses and we will be doing marketing efforts when after 28th January. I’d be surprised if demand was taking off now. We are expecting demand to grow – not whizz bang massive demand in the first month – it’s long-term. Solid wall insulation – it’s a bit of a hard sell. Investment is a 10 to 20 year business, not for a quick buck in the next quarter. Timing is really important, and expectations. We didn’t talk about our carbon reduction. The most ambitious carbon emissions reduction target in the world – [as outlined in our] carbon budgets. I’ve proposed decarbonisation in the Energy Bill. […] [Regarding Mayer Hillman’s points] The fixed price will be for low carbon investment. The rising prices will be on carbon. I’m working tirelessly to reform the EU ETS, to persuade the Poles and others. I’m doing exactly what I think you want – and the price of carbon should go up […] We should have no complacency whatsoever about closing the emissions gap. If sounds technocratic – markets and […] I apologise – this is how it’s done.

[Questionner]

The Prime Minister’s comments will be scrutinised in boardrooms around the world. In a speech to the CBI […] indicated a three month process in relation to gas generation investment.

[Ed Davey MP]

Called for evidence for the gas strategy to replace coal. There are various barriers to this investment. By the time you have planning gas technology has moved on – this causes delays.

[Andrew Warren, ACE]

The Energy Bill is incredibly important to get right. It’s not something that you can re-visit after 20 years – it is essential to get it right.

Categories
Electrificandum Energy Revival Policy Warfare Political Nightmare

Futureproof Renewable Sustainable Energy #1

PRASEG Annual Conference 2012
https://www.praseg.org.uk/save-the-date-praseg-annual-conference/
“After EMR: What future for renewable and sustainable energy?”
31st October 2012
One Birdcage Walk, Westminster
Twitter hashtag : #PRASEG12

Followed by Part 2 and Part 3.

PLEASE NOTE : The record is NOT verbatim and should not be treated as such. Check against delivery, I think they say in the trade. If I have scribbled incomprehensively or missed something, I have interpolated according to the spirit of the context. I am open to correction or challenge on my record of the event.

[Alan Whitehead MP : chair of PRASEG]

People are asking about the title of this conference “aren’t you being a bit previous ?” But we do need to talk about the future of renewable and sustainable energy when the Energy Bill comes in with the aim of delivering a low carbon economy. We are at a juncture also where we need investor certainty. There’s been the very successful Round 3 Offshore wind power licencing. The Electricity Market Reform (EMR) is going to be vital in terms of the atmosphere and landscape of that process taking place. Renewable energy is one of the largest areas of investment in the UK. We need to make sure that we meet our targets for the 2020s and onwards. The last thing we need is the shambles of yesterday and this morning – conflicting messages on wind power from two Ministers and a correction by a third Minister, and a further correction at Prime Minister’s Questions. The press treatment will undermine investment certainty in Government policy. With the EMR we *will* be able to talk about the time after the 2020s. Maybe there’s an opportunity that comes out of this political storm. We do need clarity. We need to go ahead and reach our targets and exceed them. Renewable energy will play a part we know it can in the “Energy Revolution”.

[Laura Sandys MP, PPS to Greg Barker MP, Secretary of State Climate Change, Department of Energy and Climate Change]

The work of the Energy and Climate Change Parliamentary Select Committee shows how important this subject is. It is not partisan. In many ways energy is a very big challenge. Addressing it is about putting this country’s interests first with a sustainable and reliable energy system. I am pleased that this event has the support of DONG Energy. My Constituency is host to the London Array [wind power project]. If all the MPs had the experience [of the integration of renewable energy projects with the local population] I had with DONG. They have built a strong community coherence and shown dedication. The project is very much part of the local environment. There has been no better experience than in Thanet. I must also put in a caveat, not speaking as a PPS, but as an expert in energy for 20 years. In many ways, the big challenge is not the 24 hours of [press] debate. I think the second biggest challenge, after deficit reduction, is keeping the lights on – building a long-term competitive energy system. We are in a difficult environment, trying to raise £200 billion of investment at a time of financial contraction. Wholesale energy prices are rising. The challenge is to create a low carbon resilient system. There are no easy energy technology options. We have to balance up price and price stability; supply and security of supply; and even the aesthetics. There is nothing that meets all our requirements entirely. Every energy option has some pain. We need to understand this and be big. We need energy renewal. This is a subject for big people. For people with big ideas and courage to deliver long-term strategy. We need a mixed energy economy – we should not have vilification of any technology – no “religious” response to any technology. We need to focus clearly on our legal obligations and targets. We must also reflect aspirations and realities. The 20th Century was a battle of ideas – capitalism versus communism; free market very long-term planning. This century will see a massive struggle for resources – to sustain the population in each country. I’m not sure it will be such a friendly one. Energy resources and renewable energy, even, will become more expensive. So maximising our supply from domestic renewable energy will provide us with more stability and security. Some say we’re going it alone on decarbonisation. Look at China’s planned investment of $473 billion and the EU and progressive States in the US. The smart, the bright and the intelligent are embracing it. Green and renewable energy are not some form of “sandal” economy, a tie-dye tee shirt. We’ve got to wake up to reality. We’ve got to also look at the challenge of renewing our energy system. It’s an opportunity to be aspirational. I don’t want a lowest common denominator energy system – I want something aspiration that looks to the future in behavioural, structural and technological terms. The EMR is the Government’s job – to get right the forward market and the right settlement market for your industry. The Government is there to support you. Companies are key to making big differences. We are constantly looking at the wrong end of the supply chain – as engineering blokes – looking at big energy projects. A modern, interactive, smart system will take a new approach to consumers. We need new technology, not just new generation technology, but throughout the supply chain. Democratisation – distributed, de-centralised energy – and opportunities for real demand reduction. If developing new energy systems, re-engineer it around the consumer. Take for example mobile phones – thousands of tariffs, but the customer still feels in control. We are as energy consumer merely receivers of energy bills. We cannot conceive of how to “consume” energy. The system is old-fashioned. A command-and-control environment. If the customer knew that there were 100 hours of energy “peak” demand – mostly on Tuesdays in February between 5 and 9pm, if I remember rightly, and that between 5 and 7% of all infrastructure and distribution arrangements are focused on those 100 hours, they’d say “Fabulous. Give me fifty quid and I’ll turn all the lights out.” We need to start to respond [to these exceptional cases] because “peak” is not talked about around the dining room table. We need to be transparent in communication – unnecessary capacity [energy provision in the supply system] is due to old-fashioned practices. At the heart of a new energy system we need a new vision for consumers. I’m a bit green – a “Turquoise Tory”. My father introduced the first clean air Act. Macmillan told him it would be the end of industry. In months, the UK was the leading exporter of clean coal technology. Modernity will move beyond current technologies. It is clearly important to have infrastructure that allows more technologies to come on board. Something we don’t talk about it grid. I have a real sense that it has purpose. The vision is that it should be a plug-and-play operation – like the X-box. Generators are the software – accessing the grid, either microgenerators, community generators, macro generation. The big breakthrough will be getting the grid to play a real part of the new energy system – like the body’s blood system. I’m leaving all the policy bits to the Minister. Because energy resources have been so freely available, so cheaply, in distribution, the Cinderella of all policies is demand reduction. We need to get a clear understanding of where we can *not* (where we do not have to) generate. We can choose to deliver a smart set of energy policies. The smarter the policies, the less generation we need to do. A creative part of these policies will be policies to address demand reduction. We need some other mechanisms – not least price transparency. Energy suppliers need to design their products so that consumers can reduce it. We are currently flying blind. The customer does not understand what they are using – where, when and how – the truth about how much energy costs. Smart consumers deliver smart markets.

[Start of first session “The Future of Renewable and Sustainable Energy”]

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

We have 720 MW of offshore wind energy. I’m going to approach this from a purely business angle. How is the landscape looking for a business doing a lot in offshore wind ? We hear a lot of talk about Renewable Energy. It’s time to differentiate within that. There are different sets of challenges – let’s be realistic. So, considering the impact of the EMR on offshore wind in future, DONG sees a lot of good things coming out of the EMR. The “Contracts for Difference” (CfD) we think is a good one. It gives investors certainty (although there are risks that include the counterparty risks…) DONG is active in bringing in investors – pension funds, private equity. These need to see the certainty of revenue. The big question : what the implementation model will say about the energy mix. How the Energy Bill deals with energy mix is critical. The capacity [mechanism] allocation – nothing to do with the Contracts for Difference – as deployment increases it will affect the balance in the Levy Control Framework. [Note : the Capacity Mechanism is proposed to pay large power plant to remain on standby in the case they are needed as backup generation. The Levy Control Framework is effectively a hard cap on HM Treasury spending in each area – the Government will only subsidise a certain amount of electricity generation capacity held in standby each year, for example.] This is a big issue : will we have the conditions for bringing these projects forward – which are years in the planning ? It’s very difficult spending tens of millions of pounds without knowing if we have access to the subsidy – if we end up walking blind for 5 yeas and then hearing “Oh sorry, there’s no capacity [mechanism funding] left for this year” from Whitehall.

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

I thought I would touch on the context of the EMR. The International Energy Agency (IEA) in their World Energy Outlook (WEO) says tht unless we shift our energy systems we will be using all the carbon we *can* use by the 2020s in order to keep within the 2 degree global warming target. Where the EMR sits : there is considerable investment uncertainty – the impact of uncertainty can be made clear by recognising that 2030 is only one investment cycle away. We need a framework in the very near future. Does the EMR do enough to attract large amounts of capital ? Yes, two reasons. If there is a long-term volume signal – a decarbonisation target for example – signals especially to renewable energy. And second, if there is a stable and well-balanced Feed-in-Tariff Contract-for-Difference (FiT CfD) for Renewable Energy. Our report from WWF showed that feed-in tariffs are key – continued policy support will be key. If we want to reduce the cost of finance, we need to avoid the summer offshore wind power support levels chaos. Around 40% of our power was generated by gas in 2011 – the UK has a lot of existing gas. A limited amount of new gas generation will be needed to balance the grid in 2030. The role of unabated gas [without Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS)] will have to be limited increasingly – it should not exceed 10% by 2030 if the UK fully de-carbonises according to the Committee on Climate Change (CCC) budgets. The CCC have pointed out that a large amount of gas [percentage terms] is economically not feasible. The International Energy Agency (IEA) and others still project increases in the gas price. Energy Efficiency is often underestimated. The McKinsey report for DECC said that energy efficiency could reduce consumption by 40%
[ https://www.eaem.co.uk/news/uk-could-cut-electricity-demand-40-says-mckinsey “Capturing the full electricity efficiency potential of the UK” ] by 2030. We have to put energy efficiency at the core of policy – according to a WWF and Green Alliance report [ https://www.wwf.org.uk/what_we_do/press_centre/?unewsid=6259 “Creating a market for electricity savings: Paying for energy efficiency through the Energy Bill by Rachel Cary and Dustin Benton” ]. We need energy efficiency enabling powers in the Energy Bill. This is critical to the ability to provide long-term investment, to be clear on gas and energy efficiency, and working across borders on EU co-operation.

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

What a fascinating industry this is. The EMR is a delivery mechanism. If we ask what it is here to deliver – the “Pool” – how much commodity – the National Grid has got to deliver it regardless of conditions. The question should be how effective they are at delivering what they’ve got to deliver. The trouble is, the future is uncertain, and it’s difficult to be prescriptive about what we need. The challenge is to risk manage economy/energy/environment – what can the Energy Bill do ? Should it ignore the risk management and leave it all up the National Grid ? Alternatively it can specify with a little more clarity – effectively saying to National Grid “go away and do your work” is not viable. The Energy Bill therefore has to specify what the National Grid has to deliver with the EMR tools. How the trade-offs are made should be outed in a more public arena. The fear is that the Treasury holds money as a weapon, it’s not democratic – balancing against other requirements. The EMR has to contain something about carbon control, something about capacity and the levy, something about security of supply. Is it enough ? No – there are actually two other areas. Everybody wants to talk about “demand side” [Demand Side Management (DSR) and Energy Demand Reduction (EDR)]. It’s obvious but hard. Can we mandate demand side in the Energy Bill ? It needs to have some sort of evidence in the Energy Bill about the role of renewable energy into the long-term. Maybe the existing 2020 targets give enough clarity. Could we leave the broad discussions another year or two before we can be clearer on targets in the EU ? No, clearly in the short number of years to 2020, targets for further out need to be provided for renewable energy. Success will be judged by how the Energy Bill specifies how National Grid delivers.

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen, chair of meeting]

Interesting comments there – about the Treasury being anti-democratic – ducking questions of responsibility.

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

I run the RBS Energy Team, and the Steering Committee of the Low Carbon Finance Group – I’ve been living and breathing this for some time. My perspective is from the lender angle. I echo what Ben says. Clearly we have a situation where there is significant weakness in the economy. There is a massive reduction in the amount of capital. Creit ratings are under pressure. Bank liquidity is tight. But banks really like this sector. Generally this sector performs well. We have financed 9 gigawatts of renewable power. We want to lend money to this sector. Lending volumes are a lot lower the last ten yeas. There has been a hiatus caused by the EMR consultation process. Developers are cautious, and it has not been helped by the revision of the Renewables Obligation (RO) banding. Lenders and developers need a regulatory framework or face regulatory risk. We have financed renewable energy and “conventional thermal”. What matters in policy is transparency, predictability and durability. Can you explain the new system to a sceptical foreign investment committee to encourage them to commit equity capital ? Energy investors have choices…We need to deliver clear overall messages. With the complexity of the EMR there will be issues. The public “debate” – a worrying trend is that there is perceived politicisation of the sector. There needs to be a political debate about policy [not a media debate]. It is unfortunate what has happened in the press. Those things make serious investors very, very nervous. They wait until the path is more clear – then they know what they’re going to be getting. With Contracts for Difference (CfD) it’s about the mechanism – the counterparty and the process. There’s a long lead time and the potential for rationing of CfD’s is likely to put investors off. Also, the involvement of the Government in setting the CfD – whether that’s on volume or price. This is more interventionist than generation has been in the past – investors need to make sure they are comfortable. They are watching the Capacity Mechanism with huge interest – in relation to “conventional thermal” and what it implies for generation mix. On liquidity – independents [independent generators] need a route to sell their power. Even under the Renewables Obligation (RO) we are seeing much less volume of Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) being agree, and with less favourable terms. Gas is potentially a gamechanger, and it will be playing a major role in this sector. Sticking to the 2020 target has reassured people, we can point to something written in tablets of stone – it offers a direction. I personally think that 2030 indicators would be extraordinarily helpful – as undertaking a commitment to pieces of the low carbon sector.

[Questions from the floor]

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen]

Precisely how unhelpful was the intervention from “The Peoples’ Minister” John Hayes ? Is this press blustering, or really damaging ?

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

It was unhelpful in two ways. First this kind of dispute will delay investment coming to the UK. And secondly, from the consumer’s perspective, their perception, that arguing about the costs of investment indicate that since the costs will be high, bills will go up.

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

Is lack of clarity helpful ? Probably not. I don’t like having to explain to investors on Wednesday mornings that, despite this, the UK has a stable policy environment, when competing for investment with other north western European countries.

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

From the investment committee point of view, for years, energy has been relatively boring, predictable. They haven’t seen it on the front page, they haven’t really been bothered. There has been a cross-party consensus. Now they get, on a weekly basis, very serious people raising issues, “You’ve seen the papers ? Why on Earth should we continue to support this ?” It raises the potential risk of policy change. And banks don’t like this. And this is also critical – it almost doesn’t matter what the policy message is – everybody just has to have the *same* one. We cannot have a situation where a subsidy was granted that is now no longer affordable. Projects are competing for capital – they need a consistent set of messages.

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

It is unhelpful for achieving long-term energy security. It’s lots of froth, but it is a problem for the UK. If we can’t settle down on an energy policy, we’re all in trouble. Although, in 24 hours it may have gone away.

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

This might get some public discussion on energy. Some of these debates might be awkward, but if we don’t have them, we could have the situation in a few years where it is known that half the Cabinet think one thing and the other half of the Cabinet think another, which would be unhelpful. If this [Ministerial difference of policy opinion] does trigger a detailed debate, then it may be a good thing.

[Jessica Lennard, Edelman]

Are we going back to the “Pool” ? Will the Government become the buyer of last resort ? What are the Treasury guarantees ? What can we do about independent generators ? One thing is the design of the markets as much as anything. Can you as an independent enter the market ? There are now less opportunties for PPAs (Power Purchase Agreements). It’s unattractive and increasingly unbankable. The changes in the accounting regulations mean that you need to treat PPAs differently.

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

We have been working with large users of power and leading generators who are seeking to come to their own arrangements. We have to think about how to use the existing mechanisms and own corporate policies. We want to have a long term helper for large users. The bulk of people we lend to are independent. They need PPAs to unlock funding – and they are increasingly not able to get that.

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

The issue is the power of the narrative about competition in the wholesale markets. It’s easier to be big than small – it is a driver for consolidation. It’s hard to promote independent generats without unpicking that narrative – for example, reference David Cameron’s remarks.

[Mike Rolls, Siemens]

We’re asking for a 2030 target because of the issues of the supply chain. The time horizon for the supply chain is longer – investors need to see a pipeline [emerging future demand based on policy steer] in order to sustain UK jobs in UK companies in the UK. We’ve seen the benefits of a consistent message on a commitment to nuclear power.

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

Should we have 2030 targets to replace 2020 one ? Yes, and work is being done in the EU on that. WWF is coming out with a report that the UK should sign up to a 2030 EU renewable energy target – it is entirely consistent with decarbonisation of the energy system. The UK could become an exporter of energy, as outlined in the Offshore Valuation Report, and could also export renewable energy technology.

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen]

…There is the counter-argument that a target doesn’t provide the best price options…

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

The policy approach of taking a technology-neutral carbon price, from the investors point of view, is that this is not a long-term stable signal, and also, the carbon price will have to be set pragmatically [in a political process in a politically acceptable fashion].

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

A 2030 horizon really matters to us. We need a supply chain to have legs if it’s going to drive down costs by 2020. We can only deliver ever-lower costs in offshore wind if the industry sees the potential. We won’t get to 2020 and then all sit down – no. We need a signal into the supply chain for 2030.

[Alan Simpson MP, “architect of the Feed-in Tariff”]

In Germany the policy discussions are much clearer about the paradigm shift to a cleaner energy system. If DECC didn’t need to find a way to subsidise nuclear power, would we need to have this Energy Bill at all ?

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

We would need something, even if not trying to support new gas and new nuclear. All the issues are about financing, we haven’t discussed *markets*. Despite the complexity of the Renewables Obligation (RO), it *was* bringing forward renewable energy – the RO would have worked as least as well [as introducing the EMR]. The arguments were that the RO was unfit for purpose – but what’s a levy control framework more than an RO ? We could have had more investment velocity if the EMR had *not* been happening. Introducing that level of uncertainty – a hiatus – has been unhelpful in the supply chain. We should have been investing in the UK.

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen]

It’s important to note that even with all the uncertainty, we are seeing the most investment in energy in the last 10 years.

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

The Germany comparison is very interesting. The transformation in the energy sector, the Energiewende, is operating at a very deep cultural level. Is the UK Energy Bill re-enshrining history rather than creating a new future ? It’s intelligent to come back to focus on the demand side – a self-reinforcing process.

[Tim Probert, New Power]

The levy control framework, and its inevitable cap on capacity. Is it competitive or anti-competitive ? Will developers bid higher or lower into the market ?

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

Dieter Helm makes some good and some bad points. A good point is that we are effectively entering a world of centrally managed contracts – the biggest impact is in the supply chain and the new market arrangements need to [cater for that].

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

Will it be possible to game the levy control framework ? How it interacts with the supply chain is critical.

[Mayer Hillman, Policy Studies Institute, reaching the age of 81 yesterday]

I fear my worst expectations have been confirmed. All the discussion i based on the assumption that the Government has a responsibility to meet consumer demand, minimising risks, but this is fundamentally wrong. Policy has to determine demand to capacity of the planet to absorb any further greenhouse gas emissions. If we look at that we need to face reality. We are now living on a planet where climate change is irreversible. If you don’t believe me, answer how we can reverse the melting of the ice cap ? How is it we can go on talking about demanding more renewable energy without considering the extent to which it is essential – the environmental constraints are often lost in the debate.

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

Our regular report shows that we consuming at a rate of 1.5 planets. We can’t just focus on the supply side – for example to meet the doubling electricity demand forecast by DECC. How can we put efficiency at the centre of policy ? The key needs are energy efficiency, generation, demand side management.

[Rachel Carey, Green Alliance]

The cap on spend for renewable energy and other low carbon energy in the levy control framework – is the capacity market to be included [the proposal to make payments to generators to keep their plants on standby to back up renewable energy] ? Will payments be minimised ?

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

We are certainly looking at the capacity mechanism influence. We need a capacity indicator [in the levy control framework] to bring forward investment. Decisions on thermal plant [including coal] are difficult to make at the moment. I refer to a recent Reuters article that a £90 per MWh strike price [on the Contracts for Difference (CfDs)] will take forward a price of £60 into the market. To bring on 20 GW of nuclear and Carbon Capture and Storage with coal, this price is double the levy control framework allocation for 2030. There are no numbers beyond 2015 – it runs out pretty quickly.

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen]

Are you saying that if the Treasury made the levy control framework cap low enough, it would make the whole EMR exercise completely redundant ?

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

Yes.

[Questionner]

In the Energy Bill, the Secretary of State is seeking 50 new powers. Do we need to accept the role for the market is so minor that we should go for national control of energy ? Should we stop the pretence that a competitive market can be induced ?

[Simon Skillings, Senior Associate, E3G]

To me, there seems to be no narrative that speaks to prices, competition, and consumer benefits. We’re trying not to say it [the call for renationalisation of the energy sector]. We don’t believe new narrative should be national planning for energy. We need a new focus for innovation and customer benefits – shifting the narrative away from the wholesale world to the retail options [at point of sale] world.

[Ben Sykes, Director, UK Markets, DONG Energy]

Do I trust the Government or the markets to create a low carbon energy system ? We might need to live with the ambiguity – somewhere in between.

[Nick Molho, World Wildlife Fund (WWF)]

The Government needs to be speaking with one voice. In the past we have seen various parties calling for the 2030 target.

[Andrew Buglass, Head of Energy, Royal Bank of Scotland/Low Carbon Finance Group]

It’s looking like choppy waters.

[James Murray, Editor, BusinessGreen]

We have to recognise that it’s a relatively small number of Conservative MPs whipping up this media storm.

[End of the first session]

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Herşeyi Yak : Burn Everything

There’s good renewable energy and poorly-choiced renewable energy. Converting coal-burning power stations to burn wood is Double Plus Bad – it’s genuiunely unsustainable in the long-term to plan to combust the Earth’s boreal forests just to generate electricity. This idea definitely needs incinerating.

Gaynor Hartnell, chief executive of the Renewable Energy Association recently said, “Right now the government seems to have an institutional bias against new biomass power projects.” And do you know, from my point of view, that’s a very fine thing.

Exactly how locally-sourced would the fuel be ? The now seemingly abandoned plan to put in place a number of new biomass burning plants would rely on wood chip from across the Atlantic Ocean. That’s a plan that has a number of holes in it from the point of view of the ability to sustain this operation into the future. Plus, it’s not very efficient to transport biomass halfway across the world.

And there’s more to the efficiency question. We shouldn’t be burning premium wood biomass. Trees should be left standing if at all possible – or used in permanent construction – or buried so that they don’t decompose – if new trees need to be grown. Rather than burning good wood that could have been used for carbon sequestration, it would be much better, if we have to resort to using wood as fuel, to gasify wood waste and other wood by-products in combination with other fuels, such as excavated landfill, food waste and old rubber tyres.

Co-gasifying of mixed fuels and waste would allow cheap Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) or Carbon Capture and (Re)Utilisation (CCU) options – and so if we have to top up the gasifiers with coal sometimes, at least it wouldn’t be leaking greenhouse gas to the atmosphere.

No, we shouldn’t swap out burning coal for incinerating wood, either completely or co-firing with coal. We should build up different ways to produce Renewable Gas, including the gasification of mixed fuels and waste, if we need fuels to store for later combustion. Which we will, to back up Renewable Electricity from wind, solar, geothermal, hydropower and marine resources – and Renewable Gas will be exceptionally useful for making renewable vehicle fuels.

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage : the wrong way :-
https://www.biofuelwatch.org.uk/wp-content/uploads/BECCS-report.pdf

Bioenergy with Carbon Capture and Storage : the right way :-
https://www.ecolateral.org/Technology/gaseifcation/gasificationnnfc090609.pdf
“The potential ability of gasifiers to accept a wider range of biomass feedstocks than biological routes. Thermochemical routes can use lignocellulosic (woody) feedstocks, and wastes, which cannot be converted by current biofuel production technologies. The resource availability of these feedstocks is very large compared with potential resource for current biofuels feedstocks. Many of these feedstocks are also lower cost than current biofuel feedstocks, with some even having negative costs (gate fees) for their use…”
https://www.uhde.eu/fileadmin/documents/brochures/gasification_technologies.pdf
https://www.gl-group.com/pdf/BGL_Gasifier_DS.pdf
https://www.energy.siemens.com/fi/en/power-generation/power-plants/carbon-capture-solutions/pre-combustion-carbon-capture/pre-combustion-carbon-capture.htm

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The Art of Non-Persuasion

I could never be in sales and marketing. I have a strong negative reaction to public relations, propaganda and the sticky, inauthentic charm of personal persuasion.

Lead a horse to water, show them how lovely and sparkling it is, talk them through their appreciation of water, how it could benefit their lives, make them thirsty, stand by and observe as they start to lap it up.

One of the mnemonics of marketing is AIDA, which stands for Attention, Interest, Desire, Action, leading a “client” through the process, guiding a sale. Seize Attention. Create Interest. Inspire Desire. Precipitate Action. Some mindbenders insert the letter C for Commitment – hoping to be sure that Desire has turned into certain decision before permitting, allowing, enabling, contracting or encouraging the Action stage.

You won’t get that kind of psychological plasticity nonsense from me. Right is right, and wrong is wrong, and ethics should be applied to every conversion of intent. In fact, the architect of a change of mind should be the mind who is changing – the marketeer or sales person should not proselytise, evangelise, lie, cheat, sneak, creep and massage until they have control.

I refuse to do “Suggestive Sell”. I only do “Show and Tell”.

I am quite observant, and so in interpersonal interactions I am very sensitive to rejection, the “no” forming in the mind of the other. I can sense when somebody is turned off by an idea or a proposal, sometimes even before they know it clearly themselves. I am habituated to detecting disinclination, and I am resigned to it. There is no bridge over the chasm of “no”. I know that marketing people are trained to not accept negative reactions they perceive – to keep pursuing the sale. But I don’t want to. I want to admit, permit, allow my correspondent to say “no” and mean “no”, and not be harrassed, deceived or cajoled to change it to a “yes”.

I have been accused of being on the dark side – in my attempts to show and tell on climate change and renewable energy. Some assume that because I am part of the “communications team”, I am conducting a sales job. I’m not. My discovery becomes your discovery, but it’s not a constructed irreality. For many, it’s true that they believe they need to follow the path of public relations – deploying the “information deficit model” of communication – hierarchically patronising. Me, expert. You, poor unknowing punter. Me, inform you. You, believe, repent, be cleaned and change your ways. In this sense, communications experts have made climate change a religious cult.

In energy futures, I meet so many who are wild-eyed, desperate to make a sale – those who have genuine knowledge of their subject – and who realise that their pitch is not strong enough in the eyes of others. It’s not just a question of money or funding. The engineers, often in large corporations, trying to make an impression on politicians. The consultants who are trying to influence companies and civil servants. The independent professionals trying to exert the wisdom of pragmatism and negotiated co-operation. The establishment trying to sell technical services. Those organisations and institutions playing with people – playing with belonging, with reputation, marketing outdated narratives. People who are in. People who are hands-off. People who are tipped and ditched. Those with connections who give the disconnected a small rocky platform. The awkwardness of invested power contending with radical outsiders. Denial of changing realities. The dearth of ready alternatives. Are you ready to be captured, used and discarded ? Chase government research and development grants. Steal your way into consultations. Play the game. Sell yourself. Dissociate and sell your soul.

I have to face the fact that I do need to sell myself. I have to do it in a way which remains open and honest. To sell myself and my conceptual framework, my proposals for ways forward on energy and climate change, I need a product. My person is often not enough of a product to sell – I am neuro-atypical. My Curriculum Vitae CV in resume is not enough of a product to sell me. My performance in interviews and meetings is often not enough of a product. My weblog has never been a vehicle for sales. I didn’t want it to be – or to be seen as that – as I try to avoid deceit in communications.

Change requires facilitation. You can’t just walk away when the non-persuasional communications dialogue challenge gets speared with distrust and dismissal. Somehow there has to be a way to present direction and decisions in a way that doesn’t have a shadow of evil hovering in the wings.

“A moment to change it all, is all it takes to start anew.
To the other side.”

Why do I need to “sell” myself ? Why do I need to develop a product – a vehicle with which to sell myself ?

1. In order to be recognised, in order to be welcomed, invited to make a contribution to the development of low carbon energy, the optimisation of the use of energy, and effective climate change policy.

2. In order to put my internal motivations and drive to some practical use. To employ my human energy in the service of the future of energy engineering and energy systems.


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Cross-Motivation

A fully renewable energy future is not only possible, it is inevitable.

We need to maximise the roll out of wind and solar renewable electricity systems, and at the same time fully develop marine, geothermal and hydropower energy, and of course, energy storage.

We need strong energy conservation and energy efficiency directives to be enacted in every state, sector and region.

But we need to get from here to there. It requires the application of personal energy from all – from governments, from industry, from society.

In arguing for focus on the development of Renewable Gas, which I believe can and will be a bridge from here to a fully renewable energy future, I am making an appeal to those who view themselves as environmentalists, and also an appeal to those who view themselves as part of the energy industry.

Those who cast themselves as the “good guys”, those who want to protect the environment from the ravages of the energy industry, have for decades set themselves in opposition, politically and socially, to those in the energy production and supply sectors, and this has created a wall of negativity, a block to progress in many areas.

I would ask you to accept the situation we find ourselves in – even those who live off-grid and who have very low personal energy and material consumption – we are all dependent on the energy industry – we have a massive fossil fuel infrastructure, and companies that wield immense political power, and this cannot be changed overnight by some revolutionary activity, or by pulling public theatrical stunts.

It definitely cannot be changed by accusation, finger-pointing and blame. We are not going to wake up tomorrow in a zero carbon world. There needs to be a transition – there needs to be a vision and a will. Instead of a depressive, negative, cynical assessment of today that erects and maintains barriers to co-operation, we need optimistic, positive understanding.

In the past there has been naievety – and some environmentalists have been taken in by public relations greenwash. This is not that. The kind of propaganda used to maintain market share for the energy industry continues to prevent and poison good communications and trust. I no more believe in the magic snuff of the shale gas “game changer” than I believe in the existence of goblins and fairies. The shine on the nuclear “renaissance” wore off ever before it was buffed up. And the hopeless dream of Carbon Capture and Storage (CCS) becoming a global-scale solution for carbon emissions is about as realistic to me as the geoengineering described in Tolkein’s “The Lord of the Rings”.

Nuclear power and CCS are actually about mining and concrete construction – they’re not energy or climate solutions. I’m not taken in by token gestures of a small slice of wind or solar power or the promise of a segment of biofuels from large oil and gas companies. Public relations and lobbying are the lowest form of faked, usurping power – but simply attacking brands will fail to make real change. I think honesty, realism and pragmatism are the way forward – and there is nothing more practical than pushing for Renewable Gas to back up the accelerated deployment of renewable electricity to its fullest scale.

My appeal to those in control of energy provision is – to see through the fog to the unstoppable. State support, both political and financial, of new energy technologies and infrastructure has to be a short- to medium-term goal – because of the volatility of the economy, and the demands of your shareholders. The need to build public support for new energy means that we the citizens must all be offered the opportunity to own energy – and so that means building a common purpose between the energy sector and society – and that purpose must be Zero Carbon.

There is and will continue to be a porous border between the energy industry and governments – energy is a social utility of high political value. However, the privilege and access that this provides should not automatically mean that the energy industry can plunder public coffers for their own profit. What contribution can the energy industry make to society – apart from the provision of energy at cost – in addition to the subsidies ? Energy, being so vital to the economy, will mean that the energy sector will continue to survive, but it has to change its shape.

You can dance around the facts, but climate change is hitting home, and there is no point in continuing to be in denial about Peak Oil, Peak Coal and Peak Natural Gas. These are genuine risks, not only to the planet, or its people, but also your business plans. We need to be using less energy overall, and less carbon energy within the eventual envelope of energy consumption. So the energy sector needs to move away from maximising sales of energy to optimising sales of energy services and selling low carbon energy systems, power and fuels.

You would be wrong to dismiss me as an “eco warrior” – I’m an engineer – and I’ve always believed in co-operation, expertise, professionalism, technology and industrial prowess. What impresses me is low carbon energy deployment and zero carbon energy research. Progress is in evidence, and it is showing the way to the future. Realistically speaking, in 20 years’ time, nobody will be able to dismiss the risks and threats of climate change and energy insecurity – the evidence accumulates. We, the zero carbon visionaries, are not going to stop talking about this and acting on it – as time goes by, the reasons for all to engage with these issues will increase, regardless of efforts to distract.

Nothing is perfect. I no more believe in a green utopia than I do in unicorns. But without reacting to climate change and energy insecurity, the stock market will not carry you, even though the governments must for the mean time, until clean and green energy engineering and service organisations rise up to replace you. Lobbying for pretences will ultimately fail – fail not only governments or peoples, but you. You, the energy industry, must start acting for the long-term or you will be ousted. As your CEOs retire, younger heads will fill leadership shoes – and younger minds know and accept the perils of climate change and energy insecurity.

This is the evolution, not revolution. It is time to publicly admit that you do know that economically recoverable fossil fuels are limited, and that climate change is as dangerous to your business models as it is to human settlements and the biosphere. Admit it in a way that points to a sustainable future – for you and the climate. The pollution of economically borderline unconventional fuels is wrong and avoidable – what we need are renewable energies, energy conservation and energy efficiency. One without the others is not enough.

How can your business succeed ? In selling renewable energy, energy conservation and energy efficiency. You have to sell the management of energy. You have to be genuinely “world class” and show us how. No more spills, blowouts and emissions. No more tokenistic sponsorship of arts, culture and sports. The veneer of respectability is wearing thin.

As an engineer, I understand the problems of system management – all things within the boundary wall need to be considered and dealt with. One thing is certain, however. Everything is within the walls. And that means that all must change.

https://houstonfeldenkrais.com/tag/cross-motivation/ “…Of course, the money would be great. But adding in the reward/punishment dimension is a sure way to sabotage brilliant performance. Moshe Feldenkrais observed that when one is striving to meet an externally imposed goal, the spine shortens, muscles tense, and the body (and mind) actually works against itself. He called this “cross motivation,” and it occurs when one forsakes one’s internal truth to maintain external equilibrium. There are lots of examples of this: the child stops doing what she’s doing because of the fear of losing parental approval, love, protection. The employee cooks the books to keep his job. The candidate delivers the sound bite, and dies a little inside. Feldenkrais attributed most of our human mental and physical difficulties to the problem of cross motivation. If you watch Michael Phelps swim, you can’t help but notice that he makes it look easy. He is clearly strong and powerful, but all of his strength and power are focused on moving him through the water with the greatest speed and efficiency. There’s no wasted effort, no struggle, no straining. He is free of cross-motivation! Would straining make him faster? Of course not. Unnecessary muscular effort would make him less buoyant, less mobile, less flexible. Will dangling a million dollars at the finish line make him swim faster? Probably just the opposite, unless Michael Phelps has some great inner resources to draw upon. The young Mr. Phelps has already learned how to tune out a lot of the hype. He’ll need to rely on “the cultivation of detachment,” the ability to care without caring…”

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Greenpeace Windgas : Renewable Hydrogen

https://www.lngworldnews.com/gasunie-greenpeace-energy-choose-suderburg-as-windgas-location-germany/
https://www.greenpeace-energy.de/presse/pressedetails/article/neuer-schwung-fuer-die-energiewende-windgas-made-in-suderburg.html
https://www.greenpeace-energy.de/windgas.html
https://vimeo.com/44094925

Categories
Academic Freedom Arctic Amplification Climate Change Global Warming

Cold Ground : Hot Sky

Something bizarre is happening in the sky, 4,000 metres above our heads. It’s getting unusually warm.

While we’ve been busy thanking Gaia that the surface temperatures in Greenland have dropped to ice-sustaining levels, we’ve taken our eyes off the rest of the Earth system.

Cold ground. But hot sky.

I suppose the key question is whether this heat burden will be circulated back around to ground level before the depths of Winter – in which case, it might defer the re-formation of the Arctic Sea Ice.

Is it possible that at the same time as the Arctic Ocean is free of sea ice in Summer, that it’s significantly curtailed in Winter, too ?

Is this the onset of a “new climate state” ?

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Assets not Liabilities Burning Money Carbon Commodities Carbon Pricing Conflict of Interest Corporate Pressure Cost Effective Dead End Deal Breakers Design Matters Dreamworld Economics Electrificandum Emissions Impossible Energy Insecurity Energy Revival Energy Socialism Fair Balance Financiers of the Apocalypse Freemarketeering Fuel Poverty Gamechanger Green Investment Green Power Insulation Libertarian Liberalism Low Carbon Life Major Shift Money Sings National Energy National Power National Socialism Non-Science Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Nudge & Budge Optimistic Generation Policy Warfare Political Nightmare Price Control Regulatory Ultimatum Revolving Door Social Democracy The War on Error Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Western Hedge Wind of Fortune

Enron, Fudging and the Magic Flute

Allegedly, the United Kingdom is about to break free from the Dark Ages of subsidies, and enter the glorious light of a free and light-touch regulated, competitive electricity market.

The Electricity Market Reform is being sold to us as the way to create a level playing field between low carbon electricity generation technologies, whether they be established or new, baseload or variable, costly-up-front or cheap-and-quick-to-grid.


Personally, I do not accept the mythology of the Free Market. I do not accept that a fully competitive, privatised energy sector can be delivered, regardless of the mechanisms proposed. The Electricity Market Reform is less Englightenment and more Obscurantism, in my view – the call of the Magic Flute is going to fall on deaf ears.

Who will play the pipe ? Who will call the tune ? Who will be the Counterparty ?
At the National Grid’s Future Energy Scenarios day conference-seminar on Thursday 27th September 2012, I listened carefully to several spokesmen from the companies, quangos and agencies deny that they would have anything to do with determining, underwriting or administering deals for the EMR’s proposed “Contracts for Difference” (CfD) – essentially setting a guaranteed lowest price for selling electricity to the grid, regardless of market movement. Mark Ripley of the EMR team at National Grid was very clear “National Grid will not be the contractual counterparty for the CfD”. I asked Jonathan Brearley of the UK Government Department of Energy and Climate Change (DECC) at a break who would be independent enough to set the “strike price” – the minimum price for which electricity generators could expect to sell electricity ? He suggested that perhaps the UK Government would set up an independent governing body – gesturing at arm’s length. I asked him rhetorically who could reasonably be expected to be seconded to this new quango – how could they be truly independent…I did not get an opportunity to ask how the CfD revenues and payouts would be administered. I didn’t know at that time about the rumours that Ofgem – the current electricity generation quango regulator – could be closed down under a new Labour Government.

The shadow cast by the nuclear industry
During the presentation by Jonathan Brearley of DECC, he indicated that back room discussions are going on between large potential electricity generation investors and the UK Government. Even before the ink has hit the paper on the EMR draft, it seems the UK Government is inviting large investors to come and talk to them about deals for guaranteed generation sales prices. As far as my notes indicate, he said “The first nuclear project has already approached us for a contract.” I asked him directly in the break if this kind of pre-legislation arrangement was going to allow the nuclear industry to cream off subsidies. He denied that Contracts for Difference would be allocated for current nuclear power plants. He did not admit that there are strong indications that the so-called Capacity Mechanism of the EMR could be applied, propping up the profits of the nuclear power plants already running, and encouraging them to apply for extension licences for their cracked reactors to keep running after they should have been shut down for safety reasons.

After the National Grid meeting, I went to an EcoConnect meeting, where Eric Machiels of Infinis said, in reference to the strong influence of EdF (Electricite de France) in proposing new nuclear reactors in the UK, “The EMR was set up to meet two requirements. [First] to justify incredibly high investments. [And] nuclear – if you need to invest £10 billion or more, 10 years away, you need regulatory certainty…[But you have to know, decisions on nuclear development] will rely on decisions made in the Elysee Palace and not in Number 10.”

Well, it seems clear that the steer is still towards the UK taxpayers and billpayers stumping up to support the ailing French atomic power fleet.

A bit of a big fudge
There is no reason to believe that the Curse of Enron will not haunt the UK energy trading halls if the EMR goes ahead with its various microeconomic policies. Everybody will play for profits, and the strength of over-competitive behaviour between the current market actors will not encourage or permit new market entrants.

At the EcoConnect meeting, Diane Dowdell of Tradelink Solutions warned of the risks of going back to the kind of electricity markets of former decades, “Unless you worked under the Pool, you wouldn’t know how it works. It is a derivative…DECC need to look at Ireland – their Pool system has been utterly destroyed. Please don’t follow in the footsteps of Ireland – get the balancing right.”

The big issue is the macroeconomic need to incentivise investment in new electricity generation plant and infrastructure – something that will not be achieved by flipping microeconomic market trading conditions to benefit low carbon generators. How can new low carbon generators come onto the grid ? By placing focus on investment decisions. New generation has to clear a higher hurdle than how much it can sell green power for on the half-hourly market. Funds and financing are not going to be directed to choose low carbon investment just because marginal costs (the Carbon Floor Price and the European Union Emissions Trading Scheme) are applied to high carbon players already in the market. The guarantees of profits into the future from the institution of Contracts for Difference (Feed in Tariff) and the Capacity Mechanism will maybe trigger a slice of investment in new nuclear power, but it won’t ensure that new gas-fired power plants are built with Carbon Capture and Storage.

At the EcoConnect meeting later on, another DECC man reported back on the UK Government’s call for evidence on the EMR. DECC’s Matt Coyne said that amongst the conclusions from the consultation with industry there were concerns about the conditions for Power Purchase Agreements (PPAs) under the EMR. (Securing a PPA is the guarantee that investors need to be able to commit to backing new electricity generation capacity). He said that developers are finding it hard to secure finance for new generation investment and that it was a widely-held view that the EMR would not improve that, although he said that “it is our view that the Contracts for Difference will improve things.” Other people at the meeting were not so sure. Diane Dowdell said, “I desperately hope the EMR works. It’s got to work. [Conditions] seem to be edging out the small- and mid-sized players.” Eric Machiels said, “The Big Six vertically integrated energy suppliers are in the best position to retain their position.”

In my notes, I scribbled that Michael Ware, a dealmaking matchmaker for renewable energy projects, offered the view that “Government does resemble toddlers driving a steam train – there are lots of buttons to push…[The UK is] just a rainy little island at the edge of Europe. Capital is truly international. It all feels much easier to do business elsewhere. [The EMR looks] almost designed to turn off investors.”

There were several calls to retain the Renewables Obligation – to oblige energy suppliers to keep signing up new clean power from smaller players if they couldn’t make it themselves.

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No Cause for Alarm

Categories
Academic Freedom Renewable Gas

Renewable Gas 20120924

The Danes have got it. The Germans, the Dutch, the Irish and possibly even the Belgians have got it, too. So why does the UK not get Renewable Gas ?
Do I really have to ascribe it to the fact that most of the Civil Service and the UK Government haven’t had a scientific or engineering education ? And the fact they don’t seem to listen to their engineering advisers ?

Or do I need to assume that the major energy companies, who have good access to Government, don’t want to talk about Renewable Gas because that might interfere with their fossil fuel ambitions ?

Categories
Climate Change Climate Chaos Climate Damages Global Warming Meltdown Science Rules Screaming Panic The Data The Science of Communitagion The War on Error

Odds in the Arctic

[ UPDATE : The images and charts are current – meaning that the situation has changed since the post was written on 14 September 2012. Thus, if you try to tie the diagrams in with the text, it won’t make much sense. Apologies. ]

It’s about this time of year that bleak-humoured atmospheric scientists and statisticians all over the world start to place bets on the low point of the volume (or area, or extent, or thickness) of Arctic Sea Ice.

The rumour yesterday was that the low point was going to be called for today. But…there are some odd things going on in the Arctic, and that could shift the odds.

Continue reading “Odds in the Arctic”
Categories
Climate Change Climate Chaos Climate Damages Direction of Travel Disturbing Trends Extreme Weather Floodstorm Human Nurture Incalculable Disaster Paradigm Shapeshifter Rainstorm

Forgive Us Our Stupidity

There are some things we can do nothing about. Forgive us our stupidity.

Supertyphoon Sanba is heading Japan and South Korea’s way.

Continue reading “Forgive Us Our Stupidity”
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Academic Freedom Climate Change Climate Chaos Climate Damages The Science of Communitagion

Multimessaging


[ Peter Sinclair brought this to my attention. Thanks, Green Man. ]

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Academic Freedom Renewable Gas

Renewable Gas 20120913

Things I’m learning today about Renewable Gas and Gas-to-Liquids include Renewable Methanol, Renewable Gasoline and Renewable DME. Many green fuel research and engineering projects have the aim of using hydrogen to power vehicles. Whilst I think that there will be some uses for hydrogen locomotion, such as for large vehicles in urban areas where airborne particulates must be reduced, the big win with hydrogen will come from its use in power generation – in combination with other gases.
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