Category: Emissions Impossible

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Big Picture Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing China Syndrome Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Cost Effective Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Social Change Technological Sideshow Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope Voluntary Behaviour Change Wind of Fortune Zero Net

The Price of Carbon

The Price of Carbon

by Jo Abbess
20 April 2010

1.   Introduction

Policy strategy for controlling risky excess atmospheric greenhouse gas (Gowdy, 2008, Sect. 4; McKibben, 2007, Ch. 1, pp. 19-20; Solomon et al., 2009; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 6, pp. 205-208) mostly derives from the notion that carbon dioxide emissions should be charged for, in order to prevent future emissions; similar to treatment for environmental pollutants (Giddens, 2009, Ch. 6, pp. 149-155; Gore, 2009, Ch. 15 “The True Cost of Carbon”; Pigou, 1932; Tickell, 2008, Ch.4, Box 4.1, pp. 112-116). Underscoring this idea is the evidence that fines, taxes and fees modify behaviour, reigning in the marginal social cost of “externalities” through financial disincentive (Baumol, 1972; Sandmo, 2009; Tol, 2008). However this approach may not enable the high-value, long-term investment required for decarbonisation, which needs adjustments to the economy at scale (CAT, 2010; Hepburn and Stern, 2008, pp. 39-40, Sect. (ii) “The Consequences of Non-marginality”; MacKay, 2008, Ch. 19; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 2, pp. 40-41).

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Advancing Africa Bait & Switch Big Picture China Syndrome Climate Change Cost Effective Emissions Impossible Growth Paradigm Public Relations The Data Unutterably Useless Utter Futility

BP’s Chief Economist Flunks Logic

I sometimes read the Foreign Affairs magazine, as the articles are written by influential people, some of whom appear to be remarkably knowledgable and sane.

However, trying to read a recent piece by BP’s Chief Economist Christof Ruehl was a journey with little progress, so I’m sorry to admit I couldn’t bring myself to finish digesting it.

The man’s head appears to have been spun, or he might have had a mission to spin his readership. All the same, it’s worthy of a Koan award (see YouTube on this page).

“Global Energy After the Crisis : Prospects and Priorities” by Christof Ruehl, Chief Economist of BP plc, writing in Foreign Affairs Magazine, Volume 89, Number 2, March/April 2010 :-

https://www.bp.com/liveassets/bp_internet/trinidad_and_tobago/STAGING/home_assets/christof-ruehl-global-energy-after-crisis.pdf

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Big Picture Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing Climate Change Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Growth Paradigm Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves Social Change

BP : After the Gas and Oil are Gone

Together with a couple of my peers, I’ve been taking a look at BP’s “sustainability”, both from a business point of view and from a Climate Change point of view.

We’ve just given a presentation, of which I offer you a couple of the slides and the script to accompany them.

The central point of issue is : what will BP do after the Gas and Oil are gone ? There may be decades of reasonable hydrocarbons left to exploit, but how will Pension Funds get their return on investment after that ? Where is the future thinking ?

And what about Climate Change ? Retreating from Alternative Energy back into its core business of Oil and Gas means that BP plc will not be able to make substantial cuts in the Greenhouse Gas Emissions of the products that they sell – which means that sooner or later, when Carbon Energy is rationed, their business will start to implode.

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Big Picture Carbon Commodities Climate Change Emissions Impossible Growth Paradigm Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope

Copenhagen Discord (2)

“I don’t think you should be so critical”, the young NGO drone chided me in a public meeting.

And I thought I had the right to express my opinions – I think the Kyoto Protocol was a deeply flawed global compromise with deliberately low ambitions and compromised policy and framework proposals.

Enforce a market in a negative commodity ? How ridiculous !

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Climate Change Emissions Impossible

Copenhagen Discord

The Copenhagen “Accord”, dated 18 December 2009, reasserted a target of a maximum of 2 degrees Celsius of Global Warming. It didn’t say whether that means 2 degrees C above today’s temperatures or 2 degrees above pre-industrial temperatures, but the Science for a safe Climate means 2 degrees C above pre-industrial temperatures :-

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Climate Change Emissions Impossible

Drax Backtracks

Proof that you can’t leave anything up to market forces or goodwill :-

https://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/environment/article7032738.ece

“February 19, 2010 : Drax power plant suspends plan to replace coal with greener fuel : Ben Webster, Environment Editor : Britain’s biggest power station has suspended its plan to replace coal with greener fuel, leaving the Government little chance of meeting its target for renewable energy. Drax, in North Yorkshire, which produces enough electricity for six million homes, is withdrawing a pledge to cut CO2 emissions by 3.5 million tonnes a year, or 17.5 per cent…”

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Climate Change Emissions Impossible

Are We Willing To Risk It ?

It transpires that Carbon Dioxide levels during some of the “hot house” periods of Earth history may have been relatively low.

Is it possible that hellish conditions could emerge from having a concentration of 1,000 ppm of Carbon Dioxide in the Atmosphere ?

Some projections have residual airborne levels of Fossil Fuel and deforestation emissions reaching that kind of count by the year 2100.

Are we willing to risk it ?

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Big Picture Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Solar Sunrise Wind of Fortune

Fossil Fuels Ruel, OK ?

https://www.polluterharmony.com/

It’s easy to stay on top of the heap – just throw rocks at everybody trying to climb The Hill.

Fossil Fuels are free when they come out of the ground, but exact a heavy price on the Environment – a cost that cannot be measured in Money – since wealth is made from Fossil Fuel Energy.

Unless we cut the thread – the causal relationship between Energy use and Carbon Dioxide emissions – then we will all lose wealth – from the destruction of the natural environment.

The only practical answer is to reduce the amount of Fossil Fuel that is burned. But that would impoverish us. So we need to have Zero Carbon Energy to replace Fossil Fuel Energy.

Renewable Energy is the only source of future wealth.

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Zero Net

Wishful Thinktanking

[qt:https://www.tangentfilms.com/SternPoznan.mp4 https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Graphics/ContractionAndConvergence.jpg 480 240]

After the accusations and counter-accusations of the attribution of blame, can we at least start moving on from who was responsible for the failure to obtain a global treaty at the United Nations Climate Change UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 ?

None of us have a complete awareness of the ideas and thoughts of others. International negotiations are bound to be limited by lack of knowledge and understanding, clashes of personality and conflicts of national, social and corporate interests.

It is important, however, to try to comprehend the starting points, the foundational ideology, of those we are attempting to negotiate with.

Here it is very important to keep our feet on the floor and our ears to the walls. Why exactly, did the AOSIS, the Small Island States bloc reject the Copenhagen Accord ? Why did the elite group of nations that signed the Copenhagen Accord dismiss the AOSIS and their demands for 350 ppm atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Why was China so resistant to the Copenhagen Accord ? Could it have anything do to with their fears of economic loss ?

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Bait & Switch Big Picture Carbon Commodities Climate Change Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Genetic Muddyfixation Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves Public Relations

In The Belly Of The BP

I was warned. And it’s true. BP are so protective of their company image that they live in denial. I should know. I’ve been inside the belly of the beast and spoken to one of their head sustainability honchos. Who had a total disconnect about the risks of Fossil Fuel depletion.

“Oil and gas will remain the mainstay of the “Energy mix”. We’ve said that publicly…”

So they’re telling the world what to believe, are they ?

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Big Picture Climate Change Emissions Impossible Low Carbon Life Social Change

The Hamburger King Gets A Vision And A Mission

People have had Christmas to digest the awful reality that the Copenhagen Accord is nowhere near what it needs to be to start a meaningful transition to a Low Carbon World.

Up steps John Gummer, Member of the United Kingdom Parliament, to say that he’s stepping down from parliament, in order to take up Climate Change issues :-

https://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/30/john-gummer-to-stand-down

“…Gummer said: “Climate change is not only a crisis without historic parallel, it is an urgent political threat. We will never win this battle if we diminish people’s lives or preach at them. The threat must not be used as an excuse for unnecessary state direction and control. Instead, it is all of us, as citizens, entrepreneurs, and consumers, who will make change happen. Politicians and campaigners have to enable that change: they must unleash the power of the free market; they must harness the skills and innovation that drive it; and they must create the opportunities for competition to deliver new answers to this entirely new challenge. Those of us who have any chance to influence the course of events, even in a small way, have simply to make that our first priority, however difficult the choice.”…”

He’ll be advocating vegeburgers in his new role, no doubt.

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Carbon Commodities Climate Change Eating & Drinking Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Pet Peeves

Copenhagen : “Meaningful Agreement”

As the world leaders start to slip away back to the airport, some commentators are hailing a “meaningful agreement” has been reached at the Copenhagen United Nations Climate Change talks. Others say that no deal of any significant kind has been struck.

Reaction from the Developing countries is general dismay. The Non-Governmental Organisations, “civil society”, feel they have been blocked from taking part. It’s been a complete shambles.

The time has come to start spelling out the future in graphic, technical detail – not just about the damages that Climate Change will bring – but about the only real solutions.

Real solutions do not include Carbon Trading, nor Carbon Taxation. They don’t include technofixes and technofudges like Carbon Capture and Storage and New Nuclear Power. They certainly don’t include partial commitment on Avoided Deforestation.

We have to say it and say it again : whether the leaders and corporations agree or not, the future is Carbon Emissions Reductions. The Consumer Economy is being eroded by the minute. Peak Oil, Coal, Natural Gas and Uranium are just around the corner.

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Bad Science Carbon Commodities Climate Change Emissions Impossible Media Non-Science Public Relations

Answer the Question, Professor Plimer

George Monbiot goes head to head with Professor Ian Plimer, but fails to get a straight answer out of the Australian mining geologist.

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Bait & Switch Big Picture Climate Change Emissions Impossible Media Political Nightmare Public Relations Social Change

Copenhagen Punk’d

It appears that the Yes Men have staged a huge coup at the Copenhagen Climate Change talks. First they issued a Press Release saying that Canada was going to offer 40% Carbon Emissions reductions. And then they held a Press Conference with a delegate from Uganda to herald the news – see the video here :-

https://en.cop-15.org/news/view+news_newsid=12888.html
“Canada: We Accept Concept of Climate Debt : Canada gives details of new “Climate Debt Mechanism,” announces details of pilot program in Africa. Ugandan delegation lauds proposal.
Peter Jensen 14/12/2009 13:20″

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Carbon Capture Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Peak Energy Peak Oil Pet Peeves

When 100% Becomes 25%

I don’t know about you, but I would have thought that zero should mean zero. Zero tolerance on smoking in restaurants shouldn’t allow one corner of La Dolce Vita, Peckham to have a smoking table.

No, there isn’t an Italian dining establishment called “La Dolce Vita” in Peckham. I made that bit up. But I’m not making this bit up – the Zero Carbon Homes standard will only mandate a 25% reduction from ordinary energy efficiency standards :-

https://www.greenbuildingpress.co.uk/article.php?category_id=1&article_id=414

That means that new residential buildings will still emit 75% of the amount permitted today. Seventy-five is not even close to zero, in my book. Even I learned that much at school. Seems like a misnomer to call them “Zero Carbon Homes”.

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Bait & Switch Big Picture Carbon Commodities Climate Change Emissions Impossible Media Political Nightmare Protest & Survive Public Relations Social Change

Doing Business at Copenhagen

The Daily Telegraph seems most keen that the business sector should be at the Copenhagen Climate Change negotiations :-

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/comment/kamal-ahmed/6605608/Copenhagen-Climate-Change-summit-do-businesses-need-to-be-there.html

“Copenhagen Climate Change summit: do businesses need to be there? : The Copenhagen Climate Change summit is fast approaching. There’s going to be an army of negotiators in the Danish capital but do businesses need to be there? By Kamal Amed : Published: 19 Nov 2009 : …while there’s been an awful lot on the politics of Copenhagen…there has been relatively little on what the business sector is supposed to be saying or doing. Many big players are privately indicating that they need to be there for political reasons rather than business reasons and that the whole thing is, ahem, a load of hot air. Looking more broadly, […] there is a danger that the whole event becomes little more than a photo-opportunity…that might give us all time to consider exactly the business and finance sector is supposed to be doing to tackle climate change…”

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Climate Change Emissions Impossible

The Falling Bear

Polar Bear from Plane Stupid on Vimeo.

Parental Guidance : Do not allow young or sensitive people to watch this video film.

Reassurance : No animals were hurt in the making of this film !

In a digitally composed film reminiscent of the destruction of the Twin Towers of the World Trade Center on the 11th September 2001 (as known as 9/11), Plane Stupid show polar bears dropping to their deaths from high rise buildings, with background aeroplane engine noise. Not Falling Man, but Falling Bear.

Global Warming isn’t really about polar bears any more, or rather not just, simply, merely, about polar bears any more. Actually, it’s probably not really about polar bears, at all, any more, because they’re effectively destined for extinction. We can’t save them. But we might be able to save some people, and some forests, if we act soon on cutting Carbon Emissions.

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Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Carbon Rationing Climate Change Emissions Impossible Pet Peeves Renewable Resource Social Change Wind of Fortune

Some People Never Change

So I’m talking to some people and someone says that people don’t care about the fact they’re wasting Energy, that people just don’t think.

Even though they know about Global Warming and the risks of dangerous Climate Change, and they know about the connection between burning Fossil Fuels and Global Warming, they just don’t care about how much Energy they’re using.

And I know this is heresy to say so, but I said that people shouldn’t have to think about Energy, that they shouldn’t be made to feel guilty about using Energy. I said that the Energy that is provided to them should be Carbon-free and responsibility-free. People shouldn’t be forced to act against their nature. Energy is effectively free at the moment. It’s way cheap, even cheaper than food for a lot of people. So people use it. People love using Energy.

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Big Picture Carbon Capture Carbon Commodities Climate Change Emissions Impossible Energy Revival Pet Peeves Political Nightmare

Cut To The Chase

So this big plan for international Carbon Trading, how long will it take to set up all the national and regional markets ? And how long will it take to get some kind of serious reduction in Carbon Emissions using the market ?

Well, judging by this week’s slalom race on the melting Climate piste, I’d say it will be a good few years yet before a functioning international Carbon market will be viable, and a good few years after that that it will start to deliver any real reductions in emissions.

That could easily take us past 2015, the year that Kevin Anderson of the Tyndall Centre knows we have to peak our emissions or face Climageddon (unless we can produce negative emissions. Yeah. Right.) :-

https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/programme.php
Presentation Slides : https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/ppt/10-1anderson.pdf
Presentation Audio : https://www.eci.ox.ac.uk/4degrees/audio/10-1anderson.mp3

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Carbon Capture Climate Change Emissions Impossible Pet Peeves Technological Sideshow Unutterably Useless

Urgently Seeking Experienced Journalists

Someday, all journalists who report on Climate Change and Energy will not only have relevant Science and Technology training, but they will also be allowed the time to fact-check corporate-sponsored-academic-research Press Releases before being asked to publish articles written around those Press Releases.

I absolutely adore Alok Jha writing for the The Guardian newspaper. He’s young, smart, good-looking, intelligent, and studied Physics at Imperial College, London. He writes well. His heart is clearly in the right place. Some of the things the The Guardian publish with his name under them could, however, be a little more incisive.

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Emissions Impossible Geogingerneering

Deep Pockets : Carbon Sinks News

Possibly some good news from the world of Carbon Sink science : the Earth may be soaking up progressively more Carbon Dioxide as time goes by instead of refusing to do so :-

https://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040613.shtml

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Carbon Rationing Emissions Impossible Social Change

Carbon Rationing : Energy Rights

The long drawn-out journey towards the inevitable policy of Carbon Rationing took another step closer to sanity with the pronouncements of the good Lord Smith of the Environment Agency.

If we are to guarantee Human Rights for everyone, we have to assert the right to access to Energy for everyone. The only way to do that, given a Carbon-constrained world is to agree on fair shares, and ration power : parcelling the goodness out equitably.

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Cost Effective Emissions Impossible

Carbon Taxation Is So Wrong

The theory behind Carbon Taxation is this : according to the “Principle of the Polluter Pays”, one of the guiding principles established by the global community in the early 1990s, environmental bads should be charged.

In other words, if you mess up, you should pay for it. And that includes Carbon Dioxide Emissions.

The trouble that arises is the cost “double whammy”.

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Acid Ocean Bad Science Climate Change Emissions Impossible Geogingerneering Media Non-Science

Superfreakonomics Flunks Climate Science

Now even friends break ranks with Levitt and Dubner over their new tome Superfreakonomics – a clear throw-back to the 1980s.

Is it time to ask for a reprint with all the errors corrected ?

https://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601039&sid=aVKXZg_Z.vMY

Oct. 20 (Bloomberg) — Steven D. Levitt and Stephen J. Dubner are so good at tweaking conventional wisdom that their first book, “Freakonomics,” sold 4 million copies. So when Dubner, an old friend, told me their new book would take on climate change, I was rooting for a breakthrough idea.

No such luck. In “SuperFreakonomics,” their brave new climate thinking turns out to be the same pile of misinformation the skeptic crowd has been peddling for years.

“Obviously, provocation is not last on the list of things we’re trying to do,” Dubner told me the other day. This time, the urge to provoke has driven him and Levitt off the rails and into a contrarian ditch.

…Having downplayed the problem, they try to solve it with a set of silver-bullet technologies known as geoengineering. One would shoot millions of tons of sulfur dioxide 18 miles into the air to artificially cool the planet. This could work; it also could have dire unintended consequences.

Caldeira, who is researching the idea, argues that it can succeed only if we first reduce emissions. Otherwise, he says, geoengineering can’t begin to cope with the collateral damage, such as acidic oceans killing off shellfish.

Levitt and Dubner ignore his view and champion his work as a permanent substitute for emissions cuts. When I told Dubner that Caldeira doesn’t believe geoengineering can work without cutting emissions, he was baffled. “I don’t understand how that could be,” he said. In other words, the Freakonomics guys just flunked climate science.”

https://www.treehugger.com/files/2009/10/superfreakonimics-climate-change-controversy.php

https://www.theatlanticwire.com/features/view/feature/SuperFreakonomics-on-Global-Warming-220

“It all started with climate activist Joe Romm accusing the authors Steven Levitt and Stephen Dubner of global warming denial and misrepresenting the research of a key climate scientist. They pushed back, and fellow New York Times blogger and celebrated columnist Paul Krugman jumped in the fray…”

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Big Picture Burning Money Climate Change Emissions Impossible Social Change Toxic Hazard

Burn the Evidence

Image Credit : imdb.com

Sometimes you can learn a snippet of useful information from television. It’s rare, and fleeting, but can have impact.

The other night on terror-vision, I watched the sumptuous Fahrenheit 451, a film made in 1966 by Francois Truffaut, based on the science fiction book by Ray Bradbury. I forget which channel it was on. Who cares ? All television is the same in the end.

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