Category: Contraction & Convergence

Contraction & Convergence : The disappearing options and the meeting of minds : GCI C&C : http://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf

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Advancing Africa Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Global Warming Low Carbon Life Political Nightmare

Greenhouse Development Wrongs

[ Image Credit : ©2009 Aubrey Meyer, Global Commons Institute. “Contraction & Convergence”, “C&C” are Trademarks of GCI, https://www.gci.org.uk. Full presentation here or here. See NOTE at end of post for accompanying text. ]

Christian Aid, Oxfam and a wide range of Non-Governmental Organisations have all taken the easy route and outsourced their Climate Change policy work, adopting a proposal for a Global Carbon Framework that will never, ever see the light of day.

I’m talking about Greenhouse Development Rights, a position reasoned by EcoEquity‘s Paul Baer and Tom Athanasiou, which has a less than zero chance of being signed up to by major industrialised governments.

And that’s what makes it wrong.

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Advancing Africa Big Picture Burning Money Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Global Warming Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Political Nightmare Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Vain Hope

WBGU : Equity, Today : Agreement, Never

File under : “That’s never going to ever happen if the United States of America have anything at all to do with it”.

The illustrious German Advisory Council on Global Change, the WBGU, or “Wissenschaftliche Beirat der Bundesregierung Globale Umweltveraenderungen” in longhand, have done some excellent work on proposals for a global Carbon framework.

As part of their 2009 paper entitled in English “Solving the climate dilemma: The budget approach” they came to some useful conclusions, but also some startlingly unworkable recommendations :-

https://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2009_en.pdf
https://www.wbgu.de/wbgu_sn2009_en.html

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Advancing Africa Big Picture China Syndrome Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Global Warming Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Political Nightmare Realistic Models Regulatory Ultimatum Social Change The Data

So Solid Climate Policy

Really groovy global policy on Climate Change would be more clever and more accurate than assumptions on averages that were foundational to the hep cats who wrote the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Kyoto Protocol.

Why keep up the narrative that there are “developing” nations and “developed” nations ? Some formerly “developing” nations have emissions profiles quite like some “developed” nations today.

Also, why are we taking national averages ? There is stratification of society : the urban and merchant classes in many countries have a much higher Carbon Dioxide emissions count than the poorest in society, even if the countries are wealthy on average.

The wealthy are high emitters, no matter what region of the world they come from.

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The Major Hitters Forum

Much as, in principle, progress could be made in having an 80% majority push through commitments on Global Warming, as part of the United Nations Climate Change negotiations process, some commentators feel highly uneasy that important voices from the international community, based around the emerging Science, could be drowned out by these “big hitters” :-

https://cleanenergyministerial.org/

“July 19-20 2010 : The first-ever Clean Energy Ministerial will bring together ministers and stakeholders from more than 20 countries to collaborate on policies and programs that accelerate the world’s transition to clean energy technologies.”

https://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2010/jul/22/un-bid-international-deal-climate-change

“UN in fresh bid to salvage international deal on climate change : Campaigners welcome plans to amend the way Kyoto protocol resolutions are passed : The Guardian, Thursday 22 July 2010…If the UN’s [United Nations] suggestions are adopted, decisions will be forced through if four-fifths of the protocol vote in favour, after all efforts to reach agreement by consensus have been exhausted. The amendments would come into force after six months…”It is surprising and a big, big deal that the UN is suggesting such considerable reforms as a change in the consensus rules,” said [Mark] Lynas…In a further attempt to galvanise the climate change body into motion, the UN also suggested that countries could be forced to opt out of any amendments, as opposed to the current arrangement whereby they must explicitly agree to any decisions tabled…The amendment, which will be presented in Bonn in August, reads: “An amendment would enter into force after a certain period has elapsed following its adoption, except for those parties that have notified the depositary that they cannot accept the amendment.”…But Lynas warned that any changes to the current consensus situation would cause “fury, angst and consternation”. It could, he said, exacerbate the deep mistrust between rich and poor countries that has already bedevilled the global climate talks.”…

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Advancing Africa Big Picture Carbon Rationing China Syndrome Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Energy Revival Growth Paradigm Nuclear Nuisance Nuclear Shambles Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Renewable Resource Resource Curse

Unpicking Kyoto (3)

Unpicking Kyoto
Jo Abbess
20 June 2010

CONTINUED FROM PART 1 AND PART 2

PART 3

Linking Climate Change to Trade

America and China are both “Carbon Intensity” first-movers – competing to make commitments that their economic production has falling associated Carbon Dioxide Emissions. The United States, China and Canada all continue to claim that their commitments on Climate Change amount to reductions in “carbon intensity”, rather than actual reductions in levels of emissions. This is a piece of policy propaganda, as proposed by linguistic strategists. A reduced carbon intensity of production would still allow countries to follow a path of economic growth, and increase carbon emissions overall. What is clear is that lower carbon intensities is not enough.

Behavioural economists, who look at both individual behaviour and collective social responses, have concluded a number of useful facts about humankind and its uses of resources. A good summary of what we know is provided by John Gowdy, writing in the Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization 68 in 2008, “Behavioral economics and climate change policy” :-

https://www.sciencedirect.com

Some of his policy “clues” point the way.

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Unpicking Kyoto (2)

Unpicking Kyoto
Jo Abbess
20 June 2010

CONTINUED FROM PART 1

PART 2

Why Was Copenhagen Such A Washout ?

The international community, in the form of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) established the Kyoto Protocol back in 1997, a treaty that was ratified only as late as 2005 after compromises from the World Trade Organisation (WTO) for Russia. Global Climate Change negotiations, even before the Rio Earth Summit in 1992 have been beset by recurring problems.

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Big Picture Carbon Commodities Carbon Rationing Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Divide & Rule Emissions Impossible Growth Paradigm Low Carbon Life Political Nightmare Regulatory Ultimatum Social Change The Data Unutterably Useless Utter Futility Vain Hope

Unpicking Kyoto (1)

Unpicking Kyoto
Jo Abbess
20 June 2010

PART 1

Introduction

The governments of the world are, by and large, well-informed about Climate Change by their trusted scientific advisers and the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). However, there is a disconnect between this knowledge and concrete policy action. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) has not been successful in achieving control of Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions through the ratification of the Kyoto Protocol. Plus, annual negotiations have not reached a form of an agreement to succeed Kyoto, as evidenced by the inconclusive round of talks in December 2009 in Copenhagen. Suggestions of a way forward include a radical re-think about the formulation of the Kyoto Protocol, and the connection of Climate Change to other global concerns.

Kyoto Isn’t Working

For a period during the late 1980s and early 1990s, the world economy appeared to reach a stable point, whereby Carbon Dioxide emissions per person (per capita) levelled off. Many of the world’s major economies were switching fuels – from coal to Natural Gas. And some heavily industrialised countries were going through revolutionary change, and reducing their Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions as a result of the ensuing loss of industrial output.

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Global Singeing

Colin Challen to Chris Huhne

Ex-Members of Parliament and ex-Ministers of Government usually have a lot to say about Climate Change and Energy. Colin Challen, formerly MP for Morley and Rotherwell, is a prime case in point.

What the world needs now is a new world order – a global framework for carbon emissions control – and that framework is Contraction and Convergence. Colin Challen has written a powerful statement to Chris Huhne MP, the new Minister for the Department of Energy and Climate Change, and would like us all to co-sign it :-

https://www.gci.org.uk/politics.html

Naturally, I have already signed this letter, because I know that Contraction and Convergence has to be at the heart of future international negotiations on Climate Change :-

https://www.joabbess.com/2010/04/30/the-price-of-carbon/

I hope you can all co-sign the letter with me.

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The Price of Carbon

The Price of Carbon

by Jo Abbess
20 April 2010

1.   Introduction

Policy strategy for controlling risky excess atmospheric greenhouse gas (Gowdy, 2008, Sect. 4; McKibben, 2007, Ch. 1, pp. 19-20; Solomon et al., 2009; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 6, pp. 205-208) mostly derives from the notion that carbon dioxide emissions should be charged for, in order to prevent future emissions; similar to treatment for environmental pollutants (Giddens, 2009, Ch. 6, pp. 149-155; Gore, 2009, Ch. 15 “The True Cost of Carbon”; Pigou, 1932; Tickell, 2008, Ch.4, Box 4.1, pp. 112-116). Underscoring this idea is the evidence that fines, taxes and fees modify behaviour, reigning in the marginal social cost of “externalities” through financial disincentive (Baumol, 1972; Sandmo, 2009; Tol, 2008). However this approach may not enable the high-value, long-term investment required for decarbonisation, which needs adjustments to the economy at scale (CAT, 2010; Hepburn and Stern, 2008, pp. 39-40, Sect. (ii) “The Consequences of Non-marginality”; MacKay, 2008, Ch. 19; Tickell, 2008, Ch. 2, pp. 40-41).

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Zero Net

Wishful Thinktanking

[qt:https://www.tangentfilms.com/SternPoznan.mp4 https://stephenschneider.stanford.edu/Graphics/ContractionAndConvergence.jpg 480 240]

After the accusations and counter-accusations of the attribution of blame, can we at least start moving on from who was responsible for the failure to obtain a global treaty at the United Nations Climate Change UNFCCC conference in Copenhagen in December 2009 ?

None of us have a complete awareness of the ideas and thoughts of others. International negotiations are bound to be limited by lack of knowledge and understanding, clashes of personality and conflicts of national, social and corporate interests.

It is important, however, to try to comprehend the starting points, the foundational ideology, of those we are attempting to negotiate with.

Here it is very important to keep our feet on the floor and our ears to the walls. Why exactly, did the AOSIS, the Small Island States bloc reject the Copenhagen Accord ? Why did the elite group of nations that signed the Copenhagen Accord dismiss the AOSIS and their demands for 350 ppm atmospheric Carbon Dioxide (CO2). Why was China so resistant to the Copenhagen Accord ? Could it have anything do to with their fears of economic loss ?

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Social Change

We’re Not Done Yet

Copenhagen was a complete and utter shambles. No doubt about it. Various commentators and participants have been fishing around since it dribbled away to its weak conclusion, looking for someone or some organisation to blame.

The British blamed the Chinese, the Africans blamed the North Americans, the socialists blamed the elitist imperialists, and the NGOs blamed the international companies who had a corporate interest in swaying the whole deal their way, protecting business interests.

One story, much repeated by Climate Change Denier sources, blames the United Nations in effect, or at least the whole of Denmark, for allowing 30,000 Non-Governmental-Organisation (NGO) people to be registered, when the Copenhagen Bella Conference Center could only accommodate 15,000 people.

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence

Saint Bono Preaches Equality

It’s good to know that a rock star can contribute erudite and/or entertaining opinion to newspapers. Here’s U2’s Bono with a confusing, and internally conflicting, Top 10 for the next decade in the New York Times :-

https://www.nytimes.com/2010/01/03/opinion/03bono.html

On the matter of Climate Change (what ? Only at Number 3 ?), he contributes this street-cool support for Contraction and Convergence (C&C), the framework, and the framework-based market of equal global per capita shares of the atmosphere :-

“An Equal Right to Pollute (and the Polluter-Pays Principle) : In the recent climate talks in Copenhagen, it was no surprise that developing countries objected to taking their feet off the pedal of their own carbon-paced growth; after all, they played little part in building the congested eight-lane highway of a problem that the world faces now. One smart suggestion I’ve heard, sort of a riff on cap-and-trade, is that each person has an equal right to pollute and that there might somehow be a way to monetize this. By this accounting, your average Ethiopian can sell her underpolluting ways (people in Ethiopia emit about 0.1 ton of carbon a year) to the average American (about 20 tons a year) and use the proceeds to deal with the effects of climate change (like drought), educate her kids and send them to university. (Trust in capitalism — we’ll find a way.) As a mild green, I like the idea, though it’s controversial in militant, khaki-green quarters. And yes, real economists would prefer to tax carbon at the source, but so far the political will is not there. If it were me, I’d close the deal before the rising nations want it backdated.”

I think you’ll find that Equal Rights in Carbon are pretty hot in “deep green” quarters, actually, Bono; you just haven’t taken the trouble to find out.

https://www.gci.org.uk/briefings/ICE.pdf

https://www.gci.org.uk/contconv/cc.html

https://www.climatejustice.org.uk/about/contractionandconvergence/

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Contraction_and_Convergence

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Behaviour Changeling Big Picture Burning Money Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Eating & Drinking Pet Peeves Protest & Survive Social Change Unsolicited Advice & Guidance

Stop Consuming For Christmas

https://www.ekklesia.co.uk/node/10617

I know a couple of people who are not eating because of Climate Change.

It’s not that their country is experiencing drought, flood, famine, storm, trade disruption, economic seizure or war.

It’s because they believe in Climate Justice.

We have consumed, and we will be consumed.

All our Fossil Fuel burning and plunder from the forests and intensive agriculture has eaten up the Earth’s ability to maintain its cool.

The sky will rain down disaster, plague, heatwaves, hurricanes. The sea will rise up and drown our cities.

We have eaten too much, and now it is time to stop.

Just in time for Christmas.

https://www.buynothingday.co.uk

What Would Jesus Buy ?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=sGi21YQFjMM

Rights. Fair shares. It’s time for a Global Carbon Budget.

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence

Contraction & Convergence : Agreeable, Workable, Ethical

This week, the campaigning organisation Friends of the Earth took the bold step of publishing their critical negative analysis of Carbon Trading. It is clear that money, alone, cannot buy you Carbon Emissions reductions, and as we come up to Copenhagen, it is essential that we reach beyond the ifs, buts, greys and muted tones to a framework that can be made to work, agreeable to all : Contraction & Convergence from the Global Commons Institute :-

https://www.gci.org.uk/contconv/cc.html

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence

Africa Has Now Left The Building (Not)

No, Africa did not walk out on the Barcelona Climate talks. Africa needs a global Climate deal. They are insisting that the rich/developed nations make firm commitments on Greenhouse Gas Emissions reductions, is all.

Great Britain has since managed to bailout the Banks, once more. Some of these Banks are financing Carbon-intensive projects, so you could say that the UK is investing in Climate megadeath in Africa. The Africa Group is entitled to strong feelings of injustice. Listen and watch at Climate Radio for a strong analysis :-

https://climateradio.org/41-africa-makes-a-stand/

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence

Carbon Leakage : Europe Compromises Again

The European Parliament, far from closing down Big Carbon, has just agreed a whole raft of exemptions to the Emissions Trading Scheme.

The original plan was to have all Carbon Allowances auctioned as of 2013. That won’t be happening now.

There will be more Carbon Dioxide floating away into the skies. And less revenues from the sale of Carbon Permits to finance Carbon Capture and Storage (which was part of the original plan).

Energy supply and Carbon-intensive industry : protected once again from serious change over Global Warming.

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Everybody Dance Now !

Dancing with Bicycles

Whenever you hear government ministers or public figures telling the people that technology will save us, remember this : the word “technology” is synonymous with the word “business”.

“Technology” is Big Engineering, and this is what is done by large companies and corporations. Large organisations that make profit by selling manufactured products and Energy always have a surplus set aside for their communications budgets, and that includes persuading government people that their business is invaluable and needs promoting.

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Poor People Gonna Rise Up

Talking About a Revolution : Tracy Chapman

When are the intellectual and political ranks going to stop trying to apply universal guilt ? The real question to ask is not, “how are we going to get average emissions down ?” You can’t treat all the people in the United Kingdom as one blurred lump. Around 20% of consumers are conscious. Another 20% to 30% are going to be hit directly by any measure designed to put an environmental tax on Carbon, and will have no choice about responding.

Climate Change worldwide is affecting the poorest first and hardest – an expression used by everyone from Nicholas Stern through to Christian Aid. But it’s a stratification of impact that isn’t just global. The poorest in the industrialised countries are suffering hardship too : people who cannot get their homes renovated after floods, people who have to apply for Fuel Poverty assistance.

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We’re Toast, John Prescott

It seems that Prezza, our dear beloved Climate Change Chief Negotiator is having an attack of the “Tony Blairs” : back-pedalling on Carbon Dioxide reduction targets :-

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Big Picture Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Low Carbon Life Non-Science Political Nightmare The Data Unutterably Useless Utter Futility

Tony Blair : Uncounting Irresponsibility

Climate Change is a problem quintessentially expressed in numbers : how many degrees of warming, how many parts per million of Carbon Dioxide in the air, how much Carbon Dioxide the Oceans, Forests, Rocks, Plants and Soils soak up, how many lives will be affected by drought, famine and sickness, how much Methane could be released from tundra and hydrates, how many species will be lost, perhaps including our own.

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Joan Ruddock : Flashback 2008

Notes from PA21 Meeting with the Under-Secretary of State for the Environment

Meeting Date : Tuesday 25th March 2008
Meeting Time : 14:05 – 15:00
Meeting Venue: Whitehall

Attendees

Joan Ruddock MP, Under-Secretary of State, Environment
Annette Brooke MP
Tony Hamilton PA21 Chair
Theresa McManus PA21 Secretary
Naomi Matteson

Notes from Meeting

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Big Picture Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Emissions Impossible Growth Paradigm Peak Energy Peak Oil

No Country for Old Men

Heaven knows what Aubrey Meyer must feel like some days.

For every ounce of frustration I feel about the sloth-like pace of the international Climate negotiations, he must feel a pound of nerve-wrecking agitational sweating stress.

The United States of America has been trumpeting its progressive politics again this week, asserting itself as the world’s Climate Change leader at the G8 talks in L’Aquila in Italy.

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Big Picture Contraction & Convergence Peace not War

The Architect of Contraction & Convergence advises…

[ UPDATE : For increased clarity, I have bolded a little update. ]

After I posted my report on Peak Oil :-

https://www.joabbess.com/2009/05/26/peak-oil-contraction-the-truth-is-out-there

I e-mailed Aubrey Meyer asking for his opinion. Within the hour my telephone start vibrating annoyingly, and it was Aubrey Meyer himself on the line, the architect of the Contraction and Convergence framework, with his usual, welcome, non-stop advice and guidance about where the policymakers are at, or not. I’d only anticipated an e-mail in reply, so it was a veritable honour to get a voice-to-voice. He’s normally too busy dispatching political stupidity to call little old me.

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Climate Change Contraction & Convergence Peak Oil

Peak Oil Contraction – The Truth is Out There

It sometimes seems that truth is not only stranger than fiction, it’s out there, somewhere, way beyond our active recall.

We all know from our early years education that Petroleum Oil is a finite resource, unless we were home-schooled by Creationists.

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DO-Tech, NOW-Tech

To answer Climate Change we must have strategies for new Low Carbon Energy investment.

The technologies we need to deploy are those that are already proven, and can be installed in the fastest possible time. What we can DO, and DO NOW.

This is DO-Tech, NOW-Tech : and it effectively rules out new rounds of Nuclear Energy, which is slow-to-grid. It also rules out the almost entirely hypothetical Carbon Capture and Storage.

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