How dare you be pessimistic ?
Tag: Climate Change
The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change is a United Nations body set up under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change to research and advise the global Climate Change negotiations.
Climate Change deniers and sceptics accuse the IPCC of being under government control. That is not the case. All parties and sectors are involved in the IPCC, and the research is adopted by governments, not dictated by them.
There is however a significant Trojan Horse effect from allowing the large Energy, Engineering and Mining corporations to be involved.
Why does the BBC always feel it has to give a definitive view on every single little thing that happens, even if they appear to need to resort to making stuff up ?
https://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/8426835.stm
“Why did Copenhagen fail to deliver a climate deal?”
This article by Richard Black strings together what I think are some of the most ridiculous things I’ve read about the United Nations Climate Change talks at Copenhagen in December 2009. I think it’s quite a sorry, sordid recounting, with elements of dismissiveness. Hardly the kind of tone we need if we want to enthuse positive change, surely.
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Live To Your Utmost
We need more heroes !
Not gun-toting, all-action kings of physical power, no. We need people of peaceful ways making total commitment to cause – the eradication of Net Carbon to Air. We need more people than we have now, people who have vacated ordinary roles and unassuming lives to take on the mantle of super-savers, Climate Change activists, Energy educators, insulation installers, plant growers, cycling trainers…
We need writers and journalists and speakers; researchers, facilitators and politickers. We need anyone and everyone to direct their entire life’s work to getting Climate Change done.
Image Credit : Tim Lambert, Deltoid Science Blog
Happy New Year 2010 !
It’s only a number, I know, but Happy New Year 2010, anyway !
It’s only a number, and there are some other numbers that are way more important :-
2 degrees Celsius/Centigrade :-
https://www.un.org/wcm/content/site/climatechange/cache/offonce/pages/gateway/the-science/pid/4101;jsessionid=63B576452D2AEF70A560B602E6A48ED7
350 parts per million by volume atmospheric Carbon Dioxide :-
https://www.reuters.com/article/idUS219942697420091230
1 trillion tonnes of Carbon Emissions left in our global Carbon Budget :-
https://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17051-humanitys-carbon-budget-set-at-one-trillion-tonnes.html
The arrival of 2010 means we have one more happy, glorious and fortunate new year in which to get something done, seriously done, about capping Greenhouse Gas Emissions.
We’re cutting it fine. A few more New Years like this without significant and legally binding commitments to change and we willed have failed to protect our future from serious, permanent damage.
So, man the lifeboats ! It’s another year of collective cooperation, education, informal and formal discussions, technological advance, political wrangling, community cohesion and individual effort ahead !
People have had Christmas to digest the awful reality that the Copenhagen Accord is nowhere near what it needs to be to start a meaningful transition to a Low Carbon World.
Up steps John Gummer, Member of the United Kingdom Parliament, to say that he’s stepping down from parliament, in order to take up Climate Change issues :-
https://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2009/dec/30/john-gummer-to-stand-down
“…Gummer said: “Climate change is not only a crisis without historic parallel, it is an urgent political threat. We will never win this battle if we diminish people’s lives or preach at them. The threat must not be used as an excuse for unnecessary state direction and control. Instead, it is all of us, as citizens, entrepreneurs, and consumers, who will make change happen. Politicians and campaigners have to enable that change: they must unleash the power of the free market; they must harness the skills and innovation that drive it; and they must create the opportunities for competition to deliver new answers to this entirely new challenge. Those of us who have any chance to influence the course of events, even in a small way, have simply to make that our first priority, however difficult the choice.”…”
He’ll be advocating vegeburgers in his new role, no doubt.
What did you do in Copenhagen ? I mean, did you actually achieve anything ? Did you convince anyone of anything ? Did you put forward a proposal that was accepted ? Did you help build the case for strong action on Climate Change ?
What was Copenhagen all for, exactly ?
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Anthropomorphising China
When it comes to “Foreign Policy”, commentators often fall back on a very simple device : describing a whole country as if it had the intentions and desires of a single person. This is called anthropomorphisation, or anthropomorphization if you read North American or publishing books. OK, to stop the language dispute, let’s call it “anthropomorphism”.
George Monbiot recounts the Climategate affair with wit, verve and gusto; and then proceeds to suggest a sharp technique for making a fightback against public lying in the Media. Useful if you happen to be trapped in a television studio with a billion watts of stage lighting shining menacingly right down on you. It’s time that every Climate Change Scientist had their own personal Public Relations manager; because somehow the academic community have to keep the messaging Media-savvy. Seen enough geeks turn into dorks in the Press. Need to see a change.
There may or may not be legal action. What’s sure is that there will be some kind of reaction.
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Nature 2010 : More Hard-Hitting
Two articles in the first issue of Nature Geoscience in 2010 should help you sit up and take notice that Climate Science has advanced far beyond public acceptance; and that perhaps it is time for the Media to sharpen up their reporting.
The first is one I have already reported on today :-
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n1/full/ngeo706.html
“Nature Geoscience 3, 60–64 (1 January 2010) : doi:10.1038/ngeo706 : Earth system sensitivity inferred from Pliocene modelling and data : Daniel J. Lunt , Alan M. Haywood , Gavin A. Schmidt , Ulrich Salzmann , Paul J. Valdes & Harry J. Dowsett : Abstract : Quantifying the equilibrium response of global temperatures to an increase in atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is one of the cornerstones of climate research. Components of the Earth’s climate system that vary over long timescales, such as ice sheets and vegetation, could have an important effect on this temperature sensitivity, but have often been neglected. Here we use a coupled atmosphere–ocean general circulation model to simulate the climate of the mid-Pliocene warm period (about three million years ago), and analyse the forcings and feedbacks that contributed to the relatively warm temperatures. Furthermore, we compare our simulation with proxy records of mid-Pliocene sea surface temperature. Taking these lines of evidence together, we estimate that the response of the Earth system to elevated atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations is 30 – 50 % greater than the response based on those fast-adjusting components of the climate system that are used traditionally to estimate climate sensitivity. We conclude that targets for the long-term stabilization of atmospheric greenhouse-gas concentrations aimed at preventing a dangerous human interference with the climate system should take into account this higher sensitivity of the Earth system.”
The second is an analysis of how little extra atmospheric Carbon Dioxide we need to make a significant change to the planetary climate :-
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n1/full/ngeo736.html
“Nature Geoscience 3, 6–7 (1 January 2010) : doi:10.1038/ngeo736 : Palaeoclimate: Global warmth with little extra CO2 : Birgit Schneider & Ralph Schneider : Abstract : In the Early Pliocene, three to five million years ago, global temperatures were about 3 – 4 degrees C warmer than today in the low latitudes, and up to 10 degrees C warmer nearer the poles. Climate simulations and reconstructions of this relatively recent period (geologically speaking) may help constrain realistic magnitudes of future warming.”
We all know by now about the melting ice and the droughts and the changes in rainfall.
But how do all of these things affect plant life ? And how do those changes feed back into further Climate Change ?
Part of the answer has come from Leeds and Bristol Universities in the last month :-
https://www.leeds.ac.uk/news/article/210/earths_increased_sensitivity_to_carbon_dioxide
The Pliocene, the era in Earth History formerly known as the Pleiocene, is being treated as a potential “analogue” for our Globally Warmed world.
Several strands of Climate Change Science research have been undertaken in recent months, and they are all coming up with dismal results.
The United States Geological Survey (USGS) is the latest to unleash data on us :-
https://www.usgs.gov/newsroom/article.asp?ID=2372&from=rss_home
“Arctic Could Face Warmer and Ice-Free Conditions : There is increased evidence that the Arctic could face seasonally ice-free conditions and much warmer temperatures in the future. Scientists documented evidence that the Arctic Ocean and Nordic Seas were too warm to support summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene warm period (3.3 to 3 million years ago). This period is characterized by warm temperatures similar to those projected for the end of this century, and is used as an analog to understand future conditions…“In looking back 3 million years, we see a very different pattern of heat distribution than today with much warmer waters in the high latitudes,” said USGS scientist Marci Robinson. “The lack of summer sea ice during the mid-Pliocene suggests that the record-setting melting of Arctic sea ice over the past few years could be an early warning of more significant changes to come.”…”
Feeling strangely perturbed ? That would be your internal paradigms spinning.
Considering the serious risk that Global Warming poses, I trust that Professor Mark Pagani will forgive my cut and paste from his recent research paper :-
https://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v3/n1/abs/ngeo724.html
“High Earth-system climate sensitivity determined from Pliocene carbon dioxide concentrations”
Mark Pagani et al. 2009
“Data and modelling for the middle Pliocene (approximately 3 – 3.3 [Million years ago] Myr) indicate that the global mean temperature was 2.4 – 2.9 degrees C warmer than preindustrial conditions, and approximately 4 degrees C warmer during the early Pliocene (approximately 4 – 4.2 Myr). If changes in carbon dioxide and associated feedbacks were the primary agents forcing climate over these timescales, and estimates of global temperatures are correct, then our results imply a very high Earth-system climate sensitivity for the middle (3.3 Myr) to early (4.2 Myr) Pliocene ranging between 7.1 plus or minus 1.0 degrees C and 8.7 plus or minus 1.3 degrees C per CO2 doubling, and 9.6 plus or minus 1.4 degrees C per CO2 doubling, respectively. If only the minimum estimates are considered, Earth-system sensitivity is still substantially higher than the range of probable ‘fast-feedback’ climate sensitivity often discussed, and implies that the impact of global warming acts to promote other feedbacks that substantially magnify warming over longer timescales.”
You know, back in 1988, James Hansen had some fairly basic FORTRAN computing code and an embarrassingly uncomplex model of the World Ocean, and yet he still came up with shockingly accurate projections of Global Warming.
The data is in. The models were right (more or less).
Colin Challen MP, an elected Member of the United Kingdom Parliament, has written a very helpful critique of Climate Change politics : “Too Little, Too Late : The Politics of Climate Change” :-
https://www.celsias.com/article/colin-challens-too-little-too-late-politics-climat/
The Daily Telegraph, and others, tried to string him up over the MPs’ expenses scandal :-
https://www.garforthtoday.co.uk/5311/Rothwell-MP-is-asked-to.5735414.jp
Is this perhaps connected to the fact that he is such a strong campaigning force on Climate Change ? Or that he called for a ban on domestic flights ? Time alone will tell :-
https://news.cheapflights.co.uk/2009/12/labour-mp-wants-total-ban-on-domestic-flights/
You can join his newsletter group to receive his “Carbon2Share” publication :-
https://www.colinchallen.org.uk/record.jsp?type=page&ID=6&contact=contact
Follow the money : take a peek behind the Climate Change Denier-Sceptic propaganda theatre stage curtain and you will find large Fossil Fuel interests offering financial resources to unseat the Climate Change Science.
Ross Gelbspan calls this a “manufactured campaign”, and lays some of the obligations for rooting it out on those who work in the Media.
“We may already be witnessing…runaway Climate Change” is his conclusion on the consequences of 20 years of delay in setting effective policy.
Virtually no group in society escapes Gelbspan’s probing gaze. He invites comments :-
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The Greater Gospel
I was at a most unusual Christian meeting a few short weeks ago on 5th December 2009. Convening the meeting were the leaders of several of the main Christian denominations, a sight you would rarely expect. And strangely, most of the congregated faithful were wearing something blue, and not just blue clothing – people had on blue face and body paint, blue wigs, blue tinsel and draped themselves in blue flags, bedsheets and banners :-
https://www.christian-ecology.org.uk/climate-service-2009-pr.htm
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Mini Hockey Sticks (3)
Yet another vindication for Michael Mann’s work on the legendary “Hockey Stick” comes from an analysis of global warming by decade from the World Meteorological Organisation.
Alongside this, some of the research from sea floor sediment drilling has now been published, and it should make you sit up and pay attention.
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Wood for Trees : Truth for Emails
It’s no joke that the United Nations in Copenhagen for the Climate talks, the world’s most important meeting for years, gets undermined by criminal activity and a mass propaganda exercise. I’m talking about “Climategate” of course : hacking in to an institution’s computer to steal e-mails and then stringing out an entirely falsifiable narrative on the basis of some frustrated and chance remarks in over ten years of private exchanges is criminal and would be considered malpractice and illegal in any court considering malicious intent and inappropriate appropriation.
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Time to Care
It’s time that we all cared about what is happening to Life on Earth. Nobody in an alien spacecraft is going to come crashing through the clouds to save us with miraculous Energy technologies, or brand new Chemistry that beats the Laws of Physics to capture Carbon Dioxide right out of the air in the amounts we are emitting it.
While the Northern Hemisphere is crisp and deep and even for a few hours, Australia is frying and floating :-
https://itn.co.uk/a5a07a2ef00bbaff25fe86ec3377248e.html
And back Up North, despite the recent cold snap, the Central England Temperature average for the year 2009 to 22nd December was 0.73 degrees C above the long-term mean :-
https://hadobs.metoffice.com/hadcet/cet_info_mean.html
Underneath all the cold and ice, the wall-to-wall “two inches of snow and Britain stops working” news, there’s another, lurking reality : on the whole, it’s warming up.
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Happy Christspring
Silent night; balmy night.
If you listen carefully in the warm dark, with your ear tilted down towards the well-drained raised vegetable patch, you can hear the November crop seeds cracking, and the creaking of the fat seed leaves as they start to unfurl and lift their points skywards, pushing out of the mud.
The December blossom has covered the fruit trees, just in time for Christspring, and on Boxing Day, we will take the sleepy hybrid honey bees from their hives to fertilise the rose and cream tree flowers so that we can be guaranteed of apples, pears and plums in June.
The constant, gentle rain has kept the ground heavy with water for almost two months, and at sunset the russet and gold rays reflect in countless seasonal ponds.
It is a wonder to watch flocks of small birds eating the clouds of insects that rise from the sodden fields. We will need to net and eat many of the fattened little fowl in February or March to make sure we we will have some fruit left to gather.
The fierce, destructive storms of August and October are long past, and it is now possible to tend ground with good drainage in anticipation of a magnificent Harvest in May before the yearly heatwaves send us all to the underground shelters.
Birdsong wakes us in this beautiful, calm world, where all motorised transport has all fallen silent, sunk under the urban lakes, along with the roads that carried them.
We used to live in architectural homes of brick and stone, far further South, but that time is gone, and now we live in homes we built with our own hands from waste wood, boulders and clay and straw.
We have had to adapt, learn to live with new waves of strangers escaping the unbearable Southern heat.
We have had to grow new forests as well as new social order.
We have had to lose so much, but we live in a still beautiful Earth, and each day gives more peace as we learn how the new Climate works.
I wish you all a Happy and Hopeful Christspring, season of new life and rich promise.
The normally cool and collected Phil England gets really steamy under the collar in his “Copenhagen Daily #11” out there on Climate Radio.
It is imperative essential listening :-
Well, I agree with parts of a couple of paragraphs. Got you looking, though, didn’t it ?
Delingpole writes : “Copenhagen never really had anything to do with “Climate Change”. Rather it was a trough-fest at which all the world’s greediest pigs gathered to gobble up as much of your money and my money as they possibly could, under the righteous-sounding pretence that they were saving the planet.”
I think that he’s partially on the right track : for many, many people, Climate Change is something they can make money from. Creating a commodity from a previously unvalued polluting gas, creating positive value from a negative waste product, is only going to lead to the massive-est market on Earth. And we all know who’s going to gain from that Carbon Trade, don’t we ? Not you and me, that’s for sure.