Academic Freedom Renewable Gas

The Renewable Gas Mandate

All models are wrong – but there’s only so much that an energy technology can grow or shrink by each year.

I’ve started to look in detail at the numbers which suggested to me that Renewable Gas will become more important in 10 to 15 years time – and why we need to start developing a policy to mandate it now.

The chart above is based on the assumptions that :-

a. There is little in the way of significant extra unconventional fossil fuel production for the next 30 years.
b. There is a strong development in the provision of Renewable Electricity – principally solar and wind power.
c. There is no new gas conversion technology that industry wishes to exploit.
d. Global energy demand continues to grow by around 2% a year.
e. A plateau in global Natural Gas production is roughly 10 to 15 years behind the current plateau in crude oil production.
f. There is no significant improvement in energy efficiency or energy demand reduction.
g. A peak in coal consumption must occur before 2030.

I think this very experimental model demonstrates the need for Renewable Gas quite well.

The data in the model was a mix of BP’s Statistical Review of World Energy 2013, BP’s Energy Outlook to 2030, IIASA’s Global Energy Assessment 2012, and a couple of other reports on hydrogen and biomass production.

Next I’m going to draw on the United Nations data for a breakdown of classes of energy to get a closer look at historical and recent trends, and thereby look for patterns for future changes.

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