Delay and Deny

Another potential timewaster, but this time thankfully polite

Matt appears to be somewhat behind the times in his scientific interests in tree ring dataset disparities and the Urban Heat Island effect, and Michael Mann has done more research since MBH98 in 1998, but at least Matt is being polite.

It’s such a relief to have correspondents avoid swearing and not making entirely unfounded accusations.

But to engage in an e-mail exchange with him would waste my time, so no, I won’t be using my valuable time replying or starting a conversation with him.

Sorry if the rest of you, my dear readers and critics, were hoping for a dialogue or a debate.

There is no debate.

The science is clear.

The evidence is in.

The consensus is settled.

Climate change is already really serious, and getting progressively worse.

Mankind is warming the lower atmosphere and upper layers of the Earth’s land surface and oceans by ever-increasing greenhouse gas emissions from burning fossil fuels and deforestation, and the concentration of warming gases is building up in the atmosphere because the biosphere, soils, rocks and oceans cannot absorb them quickly enough.

Not even the cycling of heat through the oceans, via the El Nino Southern Oscillation and other periodicities, flows and circulations is able to keep the upper kilometres of the oceans from significant warming.

Global warming is causing regional and local impacts on temperature profiles and prevailing weather conditions, changing rainfall patterns significantly, and is implicated in widening the extremes and increasing the frequency of storms, freak atmospheric effects, hurricanes, typhoons, floods and droughts.

The scientific community are not engaged in a global conspiracy – data has not been manipulated. Data has in some cases been interpolated, but these mathematical techniques are valid approaches. Computer modelling of both the future and the past reveals the real and significant effects of the Greenhouse Effect, and enables us to correct attribute the majority of recent global warming to the disruption of the global carbon cycle’s recycling of carbon dioxide, by digging fossil fuels out of the ground and burning them.

Climate change is being studied intensively by many branches of research, and each report adds to the collective certainty that the recent century of rapid warming from human activities is having a major effect on the Earth.

If we continue with the way things are, with rising levels of fossil fuel energy consumption, and deforestation for agriculture, timber and energy purposes, climate change will become the dominant force of destructive power in the world.

It is time to learn that this cannot be dismissed – all alarm is justified.

Climate change can be prevented, and the moral case for doing so is building by the day.

from: KJ (knockjohnkj)
date: 27 February 2012 23:13:13

Hello Jo,

Imagine my surprise when I arrived home the other day to find that none other than Jo Abbess had decided to follow me on Twitter. I have heard [sic] your name mentioned on various blogs over the years, but have never followed it up previously. Following your decision to follow me, my curiosity was engaged, and I had a look at your twitter feed and your blog.

Firstly, allow me to welcome you to my very occasional musings – I hope you can enjoy them, although – as you have probably already seen, I very occasionally Tweet and my personal Twitter account is not purely for matters climate related. (Indeed, messages to friends, and the soon-to-be-released film Attack of the Herbals – in which I am an extra – also feature).

I note in your blog you state “One of my aims has been to facilitate groups in working collectively across their ideological divides”. I do not know whether this includes the climate debate, but rather hope that it may, and hence the reason for this email.

I imagine that you added me following my post on Mr Black’s BBC blog regarding Dr Gleick, and it may well be that following that my Twitter was less exciting – nevertheless, I hope that you can see that the postings on that blog were beginning to become polarized [sic] and rather off topic (into the wider climate debate) and away from Dr Gleick’s actions, and I wished to steer the topic back to the theme of the blog. If you Google KnockJohn Climate you will reach most of my climate postings across all boards. You will see there that I more than likely sing from a different side of the choir from you, but nevertheless endeavour to stick to the science rather than attacking individuals.

Yes, I am one of the unconvinced, or sceptical people – although I do not believe that I deny climate change or indeed much of the science that goes along with it:

The temperature has risen since thermometer records began – I have downloaded both versions of the CET and plotted the data myself
I do also believe that CO2 has risen markedly since the industrial revolution.
I have read MBH98 – although this was quite a while ago.
I have read the cabal of McIntyre & NcKitrick papers
I downloaded and picked my way through the AR4WG1_CH6_SOR_Comments document []

I do regularly read blogs from across the divide RealClimate, ClimateAudit, WUWT [Watts Up With That] mostly, but sometimes others
I have also scan read many other climate papers over the last few years – but the ones mentioned above were the ones that sparked my interest.

You will have noted that I am an Oceanographic Engineer – much of my work is related to sea temperature and salinity – although I am an engineer in this field rather than a scientist. My degree is in Mathematics.

My areas of doubt are:
I do not know how much of the temperature rise over the last century and a half is driven by CO2, how much by Concrete and asphalt affecting the measured temperatures or indeed how much is cyclical.
I do not know how much the paleoclimate data can be relied upon – especially considering the divergence problem with Briffa.
It does appear that(for example New Zealand ) raw data which runs flat has been adjusted to show rising temps.

In other areas:
I like to grow my own fruit and veg although am limited by my own abilities, land, and the northern latitude of my abode, I like to conserve my use of gas, electricity and diesel (and am aware of the relative percentages of electricity generated by Gas, Coal, Nuclear, Hydro, Wind…). I like to know the provenance of food that I purchase when possible – but admit that I have a limited budget and will sometimes shop in ASDA rather than get meat from the local Dairy (Veal) or Slaughter House (other meats) as it is cheaper (although not as nice). Indeed – if I had the knowledge, security of my house, and guts, I would love to do a Tom & Barbara Good – but until the mortgage is paid off and my son has gone through university that is likely to be just a pipe dream [phrase cut as revealing sensitive detail].

Anyway – that’s enough about me for now –

All the best

KnockJohn (Matt)

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