Climate Change Global Warming Science Rules

All Bets Are On

Image Credit : NASA GISS

I’m not burdened with a gambling addiction, so I sha’n’t be taking part myself, but I suspect it might be possible to lay bets on 2010 being the hottest year of the instrumental record ever since the beginning of relatively accurate machined-based measurements began, globally averaged.

The question you have to ask yourself is this : will November and December be cold enough everywhere to knock the year-to-date temperatures off their reigning warm perch ? Or will the Autumn “dip” in global temperatures be more than compensated for by a warmer-than-average December ?

The La Nina phase of the El Nino-Southern Oscillation is set to continue on into next year – but it’s cooling effect has petered out, apparently, and it seems like temperatures will start to rise again.

2 replies on “All Bets Are On”

As Willis Eschenbach says, there’s nothing anomalous there.

Willis: “Oh, yeah, a pet peeve of mine. You know how they always say “Yeah, but nine out of the last ten years have been among the ten warmest years of the record”, as though that proved that the last ten years was an unusual, anomalous time?

“The trouble with this argument is that in a time of rising temperatures, that is often true. The temperature is rising, so where would you expect the warmest years to be?

“So yes, nine of the last ten years were in the top ten years in the record … but that was true three times in the 1940′s. So once again, there is nothing unusual about the recent warming.”

The 2010 near surface temp has been running lower than the 2009 temp since late June so it looks to me as if 2010 wont be anything special anyway, for what it’s worth.

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