You can bet your bottom petrodollar that there will be some bailouts at Copenhagen.
There will be the obvious benefactors, in the form of the Mitigation and Adaptation Fund, which will be set up to get money flowing from the industrialised countries to the developing countries, to enable the developing countries to buy technologies from the industrialised countries, to save the developing countries from Global Warming.
But behind the headlines, there will be some other deals being cut, in fact, one in particular may already have been sliced, judging by this article (OPEC = Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries) :-
“From The Times : November 21, 2009 : Opec wants compensation if climate deal cuts oil use : Robin Pagnamenta, Energy Editor : The chief of the Opec oil cartel said that oil-producing countries should be compensated for lost revenues if UN climate talks in Copenhagen next month reach a deal that cuts the use of oil. In an interview with The Times, Abdullah Salem al-Badri, of Libya, who is due to speak in Copenhagen, said that richer oil-consuming countries such as Britain and the US should acknowledge that historically they have created most carbon dioxide emissions and should not be allowed to block poorer countries from raising living standards for their own people. “We are not emitting. Historically, it is the developed countries. The responsibility is on their shoulders,” he said. “If we want to keep temperatures from rising by more than two degrees [centigrade] we need a comprehensive and sophisticated approach.” Developed countries should provide financial assistance to poorer oil-producing countries, he said, adding that such a pledge was part of the original Kyoto Protocol and that any attempt to drop it could be fatal for the Copenhagen summit. But he insisted that Opec wanted to reach a deal at Copenhagen, calling it a “noble goal”…”
With Peak Oil either already with us, or in a few short months, OPEC are perhaps finally realising that there is no long-term future in petroleum.
As Energy suppliers, their clear option would be to switch to providing Solar Electricity and Wind Power.
Their first obvious market would be the new and extended Europe.
To make the Low Carbon Transition, the major OPEC countries would need to join in with projects such as DESERTEC :-
I would expect high-ranking people in various OPEC countries to have already been in heavy discussions over this very issue.
I would also expect the Copenhagen process to include some form of words about how OPEC will de-Carbonise, but still provide Energy to the rest of the world.