The Rate of Change

I well remember the huffing and puffing over the release of James Hansen’s paper “Target Atmospheric CO2: Where Should Humanity Aim?” :-

http://www.columbia.edu/~jeh1/2008/TargetCO2_20080407.pdf

“…Decreasing CO2 was the main cause of a cooling trend that began 50 million years ago, large scale glaciation occurring when CO2 fell to 425 +/- 75 ppm…”

The sceptic-deniers laughed and scoffed and said things to the effect that clearly there’s nothing to worry about that the current concentration of Carbon Dioxide in the air is over 390 parts per million – it won’t melt the polar ice caps.

What the sceptic-deniers haven’t understood, or pretend not to have understood, is that it is a combination of factors that caused major lasting glaciation on Earth. Yes, the level of Carbon Dioxide in the air is important. But the rate of change of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere is a significant component.

If the levels of Carbon Dioxide in the atmosphere change rapidly, the heating or cooling effect is amplified, in effect. You have to take account of the relative change in levels of Carbon Dioxide, not just its level at any particular point in time.

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The Much Maligned Mike Hulme

Professor Mike Hulme is far too clever for most other people to understand.

He has spent many years trying to challenge dogmatism, undermine polarised extremes, create a broader church for Climate Change.

Trouble is, people tend to misuse his words.

Here he was, back in 2006, trying to unpick some alarmist tendencies :-

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/6115644.stm

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/sci/tech/5236482.stm

His intention, presumably, was to avoid the “doom and gloom” trap of people placing too much urgency on an apparent emergency, then being disappointed by political failure to rise to speedy action.

But, of course, his approach was picked up, warped, and propagated by those who want to delay action on Climate Change by pouring doubt on the Science.

Most famously perhaps, last year he went public on his view that the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had run its course, (when of course it’s more necessary now than ever, and a Fifth Assessment Report has been commissioned) :-

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/11/27/uea-climate-scientist-possible-that-i-p-c-c-has-run-its-course/

Seems the world wants Mike Hulme to slip up.

Here’s a little something I concocted last year, when trying to get inside Mike Hulme’s mind :-

http://www.joabbess.com/2009/12/06/untidy-minds-6-mike-hulme/

His personal statement on what he believes about Climate Change is here :-

http://www.mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/the-five-lessons-of-climate-change.pdf

It seems he is an obvious target for the Skeptical Brotherhood, as this week’s hyperbolic reaction to one of his publications has shown :-

http://deepclimate.org/2010/06/15/mike-hulme-sets-solomon-and-morano-straight/

http://scienceblogs.com/classm/2010/06/the_climate_consensus_how_to_t.php?utm_source=networkbanner&utm_medium=link

http://davidappell.blogspot.com/2010/06/hulmes-contents-on-ipcc.html

Another trouble is, Mike Hulme’s own correction to the fabricated stories being carried by the Climate Change denier-sceptic websites doesn’t really clear anything up :-

http://mikehulme.org/wp-content/uploads/2010/01/Correcting-reports-of-the-PiPG-paper.pdf

“The IPCC consensus does not mean – clearly cannot possibly mean – that every scientist involved in the IPCC process agrees with every single statement in the IPCC! Some scientists involved in the IPCC did not agree with the IPCC’s projections of future sea-level. Giving the impression that the IPCC consensus means everyone agrees with everyone else – as I think some well-meaning but uninformed commentaries do (or have a tendency to do) – is unhelpful; it doesn’t reflect the uncertain, exploratory and sometimes contested nature of scientific knowledge.”

This is just going to heap fuel on the fire.

There are a number of websites that have covered this story along the lines of “IPCC insider says consensus was phoney”. If I were you, I’d anti-bookmark all these sources, as they are clearly unreliable :-

http://www.thegwpf.org/ipcc-news/1092-the-ipcc-consensus-was-phoney-says-mike-hulme.html

http://www.climatedepot.com/a/6894/Climate-Scientist-Mike-Hulme-Claims-such-as-2500-of-the-worlds-leading-scientists-have-reached-a-consensus–are-disingenuous

http://fullcomment.nationalpost.com/2010/06/13/the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider/

http://bishophill.squarespace.com/blog/2010/6/11/quote-of-the-day.html

http://anhonestclimatedebate.wordpress.com/2010/06/15/the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider/

http://www.climatechangefraud.com/

http://opinion.financialpost.com/tag/thomas-kuhn/

And of course, since the story is picked up by David Icke, it must be true and we should all believe it (irony alert) :-

http://davidicke.com/headlines/35121-the-ipcc-consensus-on-climate-change-was-phoney-says-ipcc-insider-

The Hottest Ever

Image Credit : NASA GISS

NASA GISS compute that the period January to May for 2010 has been the hottest ever on record.

Of course, the Sun is the ultimate cause of rising temperatures on Earth. The energy from the Sun is the driving force behind all the weather systems, ocean currents, wind storms and cloud activity.

But it’s the things you can’t see that are the most significant.

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Blackout Asia : Crispy Baking

While Europe has been enjoying an early Summer, elsewhere in the world high air temperatures have been record-breaking.

When the heat gets this bad, public services need to provide air-conditioned community shelters as a key adaptational strategy.

But any plans of this nature are being thwarted by power shortages, for example, in India and Pakistan :-

http://www.ecanadanow.com/world/2010/06/01/200-dead-in-india-heatwave/

“200 Dead In India Heatwave”, 01 June 2010

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2010/jun/07/pakistan-energy-policy-proving-deadly

“Pakistan’s heatwave and a deadly lack of energy policy : The blackout-blighted country should be free to accept development help from China, and not rely on US financial aid : Nosheen Iqbal”, 07 June 2010

Clearly, the time has never been more right for clean, renewable energy.

Northern Summer’s Here

Yes, why does the heat dip in the Stratosphere, when it bumps up in the Troposphere ?

And why has the temperature in the Stratosphere averaged downwards over the years as the temperature in the Troposphere has pushed upwards on average over the same period ?

Wouldn’t have anything to do with…Anthropogenic Global Warming, would it ?

I believe it might…

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2010 Is A Hot Year

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5g3hy5jGjeu796BUwgHljsdxqNqHQ

http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/sotc/index.php?report=global

http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Steady-rise-in-temperature-since-1970-Nasa/articleshow/5951409.cms
http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/goa/It-was-Goas-hottest-April-in-40-years/articleshow/5895875.cms

The Times of London is probably under instruction to show some “balance”, so ignore the last paragraph here :-
http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/weather/uk_and_roi/article7134047.ece

Image Credit : Find Local Weather