Frontline Club will screen the film “The Hunger Season” on 1st October 2010, and follow it with a panel discussion hosted by BOND and Oxfam UK :-

http://frontlineclub.com/events/2010/10/liberation-season-screening—the-hunger-season.html?utm_source=Frontline&utm_campaign=074ce4510f-Announcing+October+events&utm_medium=email

“Across the world a massive food crisis is unfolding. 
Climate change, increasing consumption in China and India, the dash for Biofuels are causing hitherto unimagined food shortages and rocketing prices. This has already provoked unrest and violence from the Middle East to South America and there is no end in sight in the coming months. The people who are going to be most sorely affected are those already living on the razors edge of poverty, those dependent on food aid for their very survival. As commodity prices have risen by 50%, the UN Agencies have barely half the budget they need to meet the needs of 73 million hungry people they are currently feeding…”

Biofuel targets may not be the only factor behind food price rises :-

http://www.wdm.org.uk/food-speculation/great-hunger-lottery

“In The Great Hunger Lottery, the World Development Movement has compiled extensive evidence establishing the role of food commodity derivatives in destabilising and driving up food prices around the world. This in turn, has led to food prices becoming unaffordable for low-income families around the world, particularly in developing countries highly reliant on food imports. Nowhere was this more clearly seen than during the astonishing surge in staple food prices over the course of 2007-2008, when millions went hungry and food riots swept major cities around the world. The great hunger lottery shows how this alarming episode was fueled by the behaviour of financial speculators, and describes the terrible immediate impacts on vulnerable families around the world, as well as the long term damage to the fight against global poverty…”

And there is not always a direct link between more rainfall and more flooding – check the article and discussion here :-

http://www.skepticalscience.com/Does-more-extreme-rainfall-mean-more-flooding-Answer-Not-always.html

“Wednesday, 15 September, 2010 : Does more extreme rainfall mean more flooding? Answer: Not always : Guest blog post by Lee Tryhorn and Stephen Shaw. : An extremely challenging aspect of present-day climate research is associated with the prediction of regional climate change impacts. That’s what everyone wants to know – how will climate change affect me? People are not directly affected by the global mean temperature. They care about the temperature, rainfall, and wind where they are. This blog post is the first in a series aimed at exploring what the local impacts to climate change might look like in different areas of the globe. A common sound bite associated with climate change is that with the expected increase in extreme rainfall events, we can expect more flooding. Recent work at Cornell University looking at inland flood risk in New York State suggests that this is not always the case…”

Some believe that food insecurity shouldn’t bother us so much – but that it will be the food giants that keep us alive rather than smallholdings. Wonder if Michael Tobis was thinking about the world’s majority farmers here, or just the pampered twenty percent ? :-

http://initforthegold.blogspot.com/2010/09/peak-oil-vs-climate-change-food.html

“…I want to talk about the Future Salad. I am really not worried about my 3000 mile salad, as I’ve explained a couple of times before. If there’s any civilization at all, getting the energy to move food around will not be a problem. Food is light and valuable; energy costs per unit are not about shipping…Now, I’ve seen nothing anywhere about year over year variability outside the ENSO question. So NOTE THAT THIS IS SPECULATION. But it seems to me that the faster things change, the more climate transients we will experience. This is sort of a natural extrapolation from a systems engineering perspective. There’s no guarantee in nonlinear systems, but in a typical linear system, the more it is pushed out of equilibrium, the more ALL MODES are excited, including modes that may not matter much in natural conditions. That means all the real oscillations famous, obscure and unknown on any scale that has a “memory”, i.e., components with state persistent over multiple years. I am a bit surprised that I haven’t come across anybody addressing this question. (I have half an idea why. Consider which subculture’s turf this would naturally fall upon.) I’d appreciate any correction on this front, either about somebody already having looked at this, and/or whether it’s a reasonable expectation. Suppose my hunch is right, though. The problem is that it won’t be all that cheap to grow a tomato. Why? Because nobody will know when and where to plant the thing. Frank Dobie quotes an old Texas saying that “Texas has no climate, only weather”. And as the rest of the world becomes more like Texas, the whole concept of climate will get swamped by the concept of climate change. You won’t know from one year to the next what to expect. You will plant the wrong stuff at the wrong time in the wrong place and the wrong stuff will fall out of the sky onto it…”

And finally…I couldn’t resist including this quote :-

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/after-cadbury-deal-whats-next-for-food-giants-2010-09-08

“…chocolate is a safe haven in uncertain economic times…”

September 2010 is turning out to be a veritable over-stuffed cornucopia of Climate Change- and Energy-related events.

This week, 15th September 2010 breaks the record for the number of useful things I could be doing. I am effectively quintuple-booked, and something’s got to go (well, nearly all of them, actually).

Sadly, I’m going to have to blow off Forum for the Future :-

http://gatecrashenergy2.eventbrite.com/

“Gatecrashing the energy sector : Forum for the Future are running an experimental project inviting people to gatecrash the UK energy system. We believe we need a radical shift in the way we generate, distribute, store and use energy and we are not convinced this change is going to come from within the current energy sector. We think that disruption generally comes from the fringes or even outside the current system and this is where we are looking for ideas. Join us for an evening of networking and ideas generation and be part of a project that will demonstrate there is huge appetite for alternatives to the current system…”

Hub Kings Cross, 34B York Way, London N1 9AB
6.30-9.30pm

I’m also going to have to say bye-bye-miss-you to the Agrofuels protest and public meeting from BiofuelWatch and Campaign against Climate Change :-

http://www.campaigncc.org/node/421

“Stop subsidising agrofuels and deforestation”
Demonstration
5.00pm – 6.30pm
DECC (Department of Energy and Climate Change), 3 Whitehall Place, London.

“Demonstrate outside DECC against the subsidising of agrofuels through ROCs (“Renewable Obligations Certificates”). A chance to take the message direct to government.”

“How we can stop ‘Agrofuels’ undermining the fight against climate change”
Public Meeting
7.00pm Wedesday 15th September
SOAS (School of Oriental and African Studies), Thornhaugh Street, off Russell Square (Russell Square tube), London.

“Speakers will include Andrew Butler from “NOPE” (“No Palm Oil Energy”) the local campaign group on the Isle of Portland where we will be holding our upcoming “National Demonstration against Agrofuels” on the 25th, and Kenneth Richter from Friends of the Earth, who will be just back from talking to anti-agrofuel campaigners in Ghana.”

“”Agro-fuels” are “bio-fuels” produced through intensive agriculture. They have been hailed as a solution to climate change but cannot be produced without using large areas of land… putting more pressure on land has a variety of adverse environmental impacts, including competition with foodcrops, deforestation and increased destruction of biodiverse habitats – and as a result accelerated climate change. Come to the meeting to learn how fighting climate change means not only piling on the pressure for action but making sure we have real solutions not false solutions.”

“Meanwhile Andrew Butler will be coming up from Portland where our upcoming demo against a proposed palm oil burning agrofuel power station will be held. This is just one of a wave of proposed agrofuel power stations around the country. Come to the meeting to find out how we can organise to stop this madness.”

Much as I’m loathe to, I’m also going to have to evict from my diary the Green Alliance invitation to “Europe: looking ahead on climate change : The path to 2020 and 2050″ :-

Wednesday 15 September 2010, 09.00 – 17.30
Institution of Mechanical Engineers, One Birdcage Walk, London SW1H 9JJ

“Including keynote speeches by: The Rt Hon Chris Huhne MP, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change and Janez Potocnik, European Commissioner for the Environment”

“Also featuring: Professor Sir Brian Hoskins, Grantham Institute for Climate Change; Jules Kortenhorst, chief executive, European Climate Foundation; Nick Mabey, chief executive, E3G; Professor Goran Strbac, chair in electrical energy systems, Imperial College London; Dr Keith Allott, head of climate change, WWF-UK; Jeremy Oppenheim, director, McKinsey & Company [to be confirmed]; Further senior speakers from industry and government to be confirmed”

“This whole-day conference will see the UK launch of the European Climate Foundation Roadmap 2050 report, a ground-breaking analysis undertaken by McKinsey & Company, KEMA, The Energy Futures Lab at Imperial College London, Oxford Economics, Energy Research Centre of the Netherlands, Office for Metropolitan Architecture, E3G and the Regulatory Assistance Project.”

“Participants will discuss the implications for UK climate and energy policy of the Roadmap 2050 analysis, considering the opportunities and challenges of an interconnected Europe. Keynote speakers will give their perspectives on how to secure accelerated European action on climate change in this new decade, discussing the EU’s carbon emissions reduction targets for 2020 and the Europe 2020 strategy for smart, sustainable and inclusive growth.”

“To register for this event visit http://www.green-alliance-event.org.uk/ or phone 020 7630 4515. Attendance is free but places are limited. Conference location and agenda will be confirmed in early September.”

“This conference is organised by Green Alliance and the European Commission Representation in the UK as part of the series Climate Change: EU Opportunities, in association with the European Climate Foundation and Transform UK”

Talking of interesting meetings, since I’m talking of interesting meetings, I might be able to make it to this conference, on 11th October :-

“Alliances for a Green Recovery: A TUC one-day conference”

http://www.tuc.org.uk/economy/tuc-18363-f0.cfm

11 October 2010, Congress House
With Chris Huhne, Secretary of State for Energy and Climate Change

“This year’s TUC conference on climate change necessarily links the drive for a low carbon economy with pathways out of the recession. Alliances for a Green Recovery will highlight the respective roles of government, business, trade unions, community and finance organisations in accelerating the transition to a low carbon future, and what we can do better together. Your contribution in this conference at this crucial time in Government policymaking will be very welcome.”

“Paul Noon, General Secretary of Prospect, will chair the conference for the TUC. Environment Secretary Chris Huhne will make an opening keynote speech on the Coalition’s strategy for sustainable growth, with Frances O’Grady responding on behalf of the TUC. David Kennedy, CEO, Committee on Climate Change, will then outline the climate change challenge the UK faces, and the CCC’s advice on an energy and industrial strategy to meet these targets. Delegates are then offered a choice of two from nine expert-led Response Workshops before and after the lunch break. They tackle key themes including building local green alliances, green skills, low carbon transport, the Green Investment Bank, green energy, energy efficiency, reforming our energy market, securing energy intensive industries, and building alliances for a global climate change agreement. A leading economics’ journalist will chair the Green Policy Panel in the afternoon. Our closing speaker will provide an Opposition view on building a green recovery.”

Back to consideration of this Wednesday, 15th September 2010 – I’m even going to have to act slack in putting in an appearance at “Green Drinks”, a networking event held on the 1st and 15th of every month at the newly refurbished Rose & Crown in Walthamstow, London E17 :-

http://www.greendrinks.org/London/Waltham%20Forest

I wouldn’t have thought it possible, but I’ve got something more important to do…

Possibly some good news from the world of Carbon Sink science : the Earth may be soaking up progressively more Carbon Dioxide as time goes by instead of refusing to do so :-

http://www.agu.org/pubs/crossref/2009/2009GL040613.shtml

“Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing? Wolfgang Knorr : Department of Earth Sciences, University of Bristol, Bristol, UK : Several recent studies have highlighted the possibility that the oceans and terrestrial ecosystems have started loosing part of their ability to sequester a large proportion of the anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This is an important claim, because so far only about 40% of those emissions have stayed in the atmosphere, which has prevented additional climate change. This study re-examines the available atmospheric CO2 and emissions data including their uncertainties. It is shown that with those uncertainties, the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, i.e. close to and not significantly different from zero. The analysis further shows that the statistical model of a constant airborne fraction agrees best with the available data if emissions from land use change are scaled down to 82% or less of their original estimates. Despite the predictions of coupled climate-carbon cycle models, no trend in the airborne fraction can be found. Received 18 August 2009; accepted 23 September 2009; published 7 November 2009. Citation: Knorr, W. (2009), Is the airborne fraction of anthropogenic CO2 emissions increasing?, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L21710, doi:10.1029/2009GL040613.”

http://www.tackleclimatechange.co.uk/2009/11/controversial-new-climate-change.html

“Controversial new climate change results : New data show that the balance between the airborne and the absorbed fraction of carbon dioxide has stayed approximately constant since 1850, despite emissions of carbon dioxide having risen from about 2 billion tons a year in 1850 to 35 billion tons a year now. This suggests that terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans have a much greater capacity to absorb CO2 than had been previously expected. The results run contrary to a significant body of recent research which expects that the capacity of terrestrial ecosystems and the oceans to absorb CO2 should start to diminish as CO2 emissions increase, letting greenhouse gas levels skyrocket. Dr Wolfgang Knorr at the University of Bristol found that in fact the trend in the airborne fraction since 1850 has only been 0.7 ± 1.4% per decade, which is essentially zero…”

http://bristol.ac.uk/news/2009/6649.html

“…So is this good news for climate negotiations in Copenhagen? “Not necessarily”, says Knorr. “Like all studies of this kind, there are uncertainties in the data, so rather than relying on Nature to provide a free service, soaking up our waste carbon, we need to ascertain why the proportion being absorbed has not changed”. Another result of the study is that emissions from deforestation might have been overestimated by between 18 and 75 per cent. This would agree with results published last week in Nature Geoscience by a team led by Guido van der Werf from VU University Amsterdam. They re-visited deforestation data and concluded that emissions have been overestimated by at least a factor of two.”

http://www.nature.com/ngeo/journal/v2/n11/abs/ngeo671.html

“Commentary : Nature Geoscience 2, 737 – 738 (2009) : doi:10.1038/ngeo671 : CO2 emissions from forest loss : G. R. van der Werf, D. C. Morton, R. S. DeFries, J. G. J. Olivier, P. S. Kasibhatla, R. B. Jackson, G. J. Collatz & J. T. Randerson : Correspondence to: G. R. van der Werf e-mail: guido.van.der.werf@falw.vu.nl : Abstract : Deforestation is the second largest anthropogenic source of carbon dioxide to the atmosphere, after fossil fuel combustion. Following a budget reanalysis, the contribution from deforestation is revised downwards, but tropical peatlands emerge as a notable carbon dioxide source.”

And as the Antarctic ice cap retreats, there’s more opportunity for marine plants to grow and soak up CO2 :-

http://planetearth.nerc.ac.uk/news/story.aspx?id=594

“Ice retreat opens new shores for carbon storage : 9 November 2009, by Sara Coelho : Ice melting in Antarctica has opened a new area of sea as big as Wales, where tiny marine plants called phytoplankton can bloom and absorb extra carbon from the atmosphere. But before we open the champagne, this positive effect does not offset the damage done by carbon emissions. Global warming is causing unprecedented melting in Antarctica’s glaciers and the break-up of many ice shelves along the Antarctic Peninsula. But new opportunities for life arise as the glaciers retreat and shore waters become exposed to light and circulation of nutrients. Without ice cover, carbon-absorbing phytoplankton moves in and starts taking up extra amounts of carbon dioxide from the atmosphere, becoming what scientists call a ‘carbon sink’. ‘This is really massive – it’s like having a new forest the size of Wales,’ says Professor Lloyd Peck, a near-shore marine biologist from the British Antarctic Survey. Peck estimates that this new natural sink is taking up 3.5 million tonnes of carbon dissolved in the ocean. This is the amount of carbon absorbed by the equivalent of between 6,000 and 17,000 hectares of tropical rainforest. However, ‘this is a very small amount compared to the global emissions of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere,’ he says. It is, nevertheless, an important discovery: ‘It shows nature’s ability to thrive in the face of adversity,’ says Peck, who led the study published this week in Global Change Biology…”