Posted on September 18th, 2010 No comments
Totally new data set – totally new temperature proxy – totally the same Hockey Stick.
Michael Mann, Phil Jones and all the experts are more than vindicated.
Steve McIntyre, Marc Morano, and your “tribes”, will you stand aside, please ?
You’re just getting in the way of the true course of discovery.Climate Change, Global Warming, Science Rules, The Data Andrew Montford, Anthony Watts, Benny Peiser, Bishop Hill, Bjorn Lomborg, Bob Carter, Christopher Booker, Christopher Monckton, contrarian, delayer, denial, denier, Dennis Avery, Fred Singer, Hockey Stick, Ian Plimer, James Delingpole, Judith Curry, Lawrence Solomon, Marc Morano, Michael Mann, Myron Ebell, Nigel Lawson, obtructer, Pat Michaels, Phil Jones, Richard Lindzen, Roger Pielke Jr, Roger Pielke Sr, Roy Spencer, sceptic, skeptic, Steve McIntyre, Steve Milloy, Steven Goddard, Tim Ball, Tom Fuller
Posted on September 15th, 2010 No comments
And so it is we learn from the Daily Express, that most learned journal, that the ethos, the very foundation, of Climate Change science is in question :-
“CLIMATE CHANGE: FAILURES OF GLOBAL WARMING PROBES ‘LET DOWN PUBLIC’ : Wednesday September 15, 2010 : By John Ingham, Environment Editor : PUBLIC inquiries into the Climategate scandal have failed to restore confidence in the science behind global warming, a report claimed yesterday. It branded as flawed the three inquiries into the leaking of e-mails by scientists at East Anglia university’s world-leading Climate Research Unit. And it called for independent inquiries into the ethos of climate research and the science itself…”
We’re post-modern 21st Century humans. It’s OK to question everything. There’s every likelihood that we control our own destinies by our thoughts; that tobacco doesn’t cause lung and pancreatic cancer; that sexual intercourse between a male and a female is not the cause of human reproduction; that Jesus was Catholic, and not Jewish; that so-called waterborne diseases aren’t caused by microscopic organisms; that infection by the HIV virus doesn’t lead to AIDS; that Barack Hussein Obama is a non-American Muslim; that the CIA planned 9/11 (no, really, they did !); that mobile phone masts are killing bees (well, it can’t be the pesticides, can it ?); the moon landings were staged; that wind power will never amount to much, and that chocolate doesn’t give you spots.
If you want to believe that DDT controls malaria, then go right ahead. We live in a tolerant society, and your knowledge is just as good as mine, really :-
And of course, it’s entirely reasonable to assert that the Earth is the centre of the Universe, for medieval clerics so believed :-
The theory of evolution, of course, is a hoax :-
“…The author, who has offered 10,000 euros to anyone who can scientifically prove evolution exists…”
(as found on http://johnquiggin.com/).Bad Science, Bait & Switch, Climate Change, Global Warming, Media, Non-Science, Science Rules, The Data Andrew Montford, anti-Science, anti-sense, Benny Peiser, Bishop Hill, Christopher Monckton, contrarian, Daily Express, David Roberts, delayer, denial, denier, geocentrism, Global Warming Policy Foundation, God, GWPF, John Ingham, John Quiggin, Nigel Lawson, obstructer, Quiggin, Rush Limbaugh, sceptic, septic, skeptic, The Global Warming Policy Foundation, The GWPF
Posted on August 25th, 2010 1 comment
If you, or anyone dear to you, is a closet Climate Change sceptic, then you quite possibly have David Koch, of Koch Industries, and his allegedly personally paid-for propaganda machine to thank.
Climate Change denial was invented in the United States of America, but has since been imported into the United Kingdom and Australia, tripping up intellects and intelligences everywhere it shows up.
It makes a person look really uneducated when they recite the mantras of Climate Change scepticism and denial. Trouble is, it’s so pervasive and seemingly anodyne when you first encounter it, that many people just fall for it hook, line and sinker.
What’s so wrong about saying “The climate has always changed” for example ? Yes, of course it has, but not like it’s changing now.
“COVERT OPERATIONS : The billionaire brothers who are waging a war against Obama. : by Jane Mayer : AUGUST 30, 2010 : On May 17th, a black-tie audience at the Metropolitan Opera House applauded as a tall, jovial-looking billionaire took the stage. It was the seventieth annual spring gala of American Ballet Theatre, and David H. Koch was being celebrated for his generosity as a member of the board of trustees; he had recently donated $2.5 million toward the company’s upcoming season, and had given many millions before that. Koch received an award while flanked by two of the gala’s co-chairs, Blaine Trump, in a peach-colored gown, and Caroline Kennedy Schlossberg, in emerald green. Kennedy’s mother, Jacqueline Kennedy Onassis, had been a patron of the ballet and, coincidentally, the previous owner of a Fifth Avenue apartment that Koch had bought, in 1995, and then sold, eleven years later, for thirty-two million dollars, having found it too small. Read the rest of this entry »
Posted on August 24th, 2010 86 comments
I don’t expect much from it in terms of any kind of sensible, relevant reply, but here’s my two eurocents’ worth, as loaded at :-
The BBC are undergoing a review on balance in Science reporting. They need to get Climate Change right, and that could start by one of their programme editors actually trying to understand what programmes like this do to an unprepared or semi-prepared audience.
The Newsnight audience have been left with the view that “maybe Climate Change is not so bad after all”, which is the worst take-home message they could be given.
See further down the post for e-mail traffic related to the Newsnight broadcast of 23rd August 2010.Bad Science, Climate Change, Delay and Deny, Divide & Rule, Extreme Weather, Fair Balance, Global Warming, Incalculable Disaster, Marvellous Wonderful, Media, Non-Science, Public Relations, Science Rules, The Data, Unqualified Opinion, Unutterably Useless Andrew Montford, anti-Science, BBC, BBC bias, BBC inaccuracy, BBC Newsnight, Bishop Hill, Bob Ward, Chris Keene, Christopher Shaw, Climate Change, contrarian, David Cromwell, delayer, denial, denier, dismissing the real problem, George Marshall, Global Warming, John Nissen, Kirsty Wark, Kirsty Warp, MediaLens, Newsmight, Newsnight, obstructer, sceptic, skeptic, Warkian
Posted on August 17th, 2010 1 comment
Welcome to the slightly revised and updated Hockey Stick :-
Yes, the Earth’s temperature is warming at a very fast pace. No, even though the statistical models here may be a little questionable, the graph still looks the same, more or less, to the sterling work of Michael Mann et al. (et al. = et alia = “and the others”).
Quelle surprise…pas !
(I included a little French in here because Steve McIntyre, the most infamous Global Warming septic…oops, sorry, “sceptic”…nooo, “skeptic”… is Canadian, a famously bilingual country, or rather a country with a bilingual state, but I’m not implying that “bilingual” means “speaking with forked tongue”).
Posted on August 15th, 2010 No comments
Statistical analysis of the raw data on Global Warming suffers from two major pitfalls :-
1. You are looking at the combined effects from several causative sources. Unless you have the means to distinguish the various factors, you cannot apply statistical techniques to the data and expect to get anything truly meaningful out. All that can be said, at best, is, “The Globe. Still Warming.”, as the warming trend over a long enough period of time has managed to stand out over the short-term variations.
2. Looking at the data purely by eye, some of the warming or cooling effects are clearly short-term, others longer-term; so picking a range of years/months/seasons at random, or according to some bias, is likely to distort the analysis. This is known as “cherry-picking”. The results of cherry-picking include the fallacious and discredited claim that, “Global Warming stopped in 1998”, or the much more crafty and misleading, “There has been no statistically significant Global Warming since 1998”.
Some researchers are content just to point to the overall effect of the raw data – global temperatures on land and at sea are rising sharply and the charts should be sufficient to understand the basic problem.
However, some people still contest that Global Warming is taking place, or that if it is, it isn’t serious. This then, is the cue to do an in-depth analysis into the known factors in global temperatures, and to attempt to “deduct” obvious short-term warming and cooling features in order to eyeball the underlying trends :-Bad Science, Bait & Switch, Be Prepared, Big Picture, Climate Change, Delay and Deny, Disturbing Trends, Divide & Rule, Extreme Weather, Fair Balance, Freak Science, Global Singeing, Global Warming, Hide the Incline, Incalculable Disaster, Non-Science, Public Relations, Realistic Models, Science Rules, The Data, Unqualified Opinion abrupt Climate Change, Anthropogenic Climate Change, Anthropogenic Global Warming, blip, cherrypicking, Climate Change, Climate Change Science, Climate Science, Climatic Research Unit, contrarian, CRU, Dangerous Climate Change, delayer, denial, denier, dips, Global Warming, independent variables, internal variability, internal variation, long-term, make me a model, mid-term, model, modelling, obstructer, Phil Jones, Ross McKitrick, sceptic, short-term, short-term swings, skeptic, slopes, spikes, Steve McIntyre, UEA, University of East Anglia
Posted on August 9th, 2010 1 comment
Jaw-droppingly, the BBC have apologised for the contents of a Today Programme. Not the one that caused poor, deceased Dr David Kelly so much embarrassment, God rest his soul. No, the one that featured the breaking of the “Climategate” e-mail scandal :-
The BBC picked the wrong scandal story to run with, it appears.
The real scandal of Climategate is how the scientists’ e-mails were “liberated” from the University of East Anglia, and then annotated to give heavily biased interpretation, then released to the general public via the Internet, and how the Media were taken in.
Certain people at the BBC chose to go with the fake scandal, it seems – the narrative fabricated and dictated to them by Climate Change deniers.
Anyway, now the BBC have made an apology, of sorts. Better late than never, but all the same, it would have been better earlier rather than later.
Thankfully, despite the late apologies, this particular alleged witch-hunt didn’t end with a suspected suicide. Although it did include reports that Professor Phil Jones had, in fact, contemplated suicide; the reporting of which just added to his completely groundless public humiliation at the hands of the Press. Which they should apologise for, in my humble opinion. Just as good (old) George Monbiot had the good grace to offer some regret for :-
“BBC apologises to University of East Anglia for “incorrect” remark”
“The BBC has apologised for an “incorrect” remark made by John Humphrys that UEA researchers had “distorted the debate about global warming to make the threat seem even more serious than they believed it to be”.”Bad Science, Bait & Switch, British Sea Power, Climate Change, Corporate Pressure, Delay and Deny, Divide & Rule, Emissions Impossible, Energy Revival, Fair Balance, Freak Science, Global Warming, Growth Paradigm, Hide the Incline, Low Carbon Life, Media, Non-Science, Public Relations, Regulatory Ultimatum, Renewable Resource, Social Change, Solar Sunrise, Unqualified Opinion, Unutterably Useless, Utter Futility, Vain Hope, Wind of Fortune Al Gore, Amazon, Amazongate, anti-Science, apologies, apologises, apology, Bad Science, BBC, Ben Goldacre, Ben Santer, Christopher Booker, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, contrarian, CRU, David Kelly, delayer, denial, denier, Doug Keenan, Erik M. Conway, Fiona Harvey, Fred Pearce, George Monbiot, Guardian Newspaper, hell freezes over, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, IPCC, James Delingpole, Jeremy Vine, John Christy, John Humphrys, Jonathan Leake, Justin Lancaster, Kevin Anderson, Lawrence Solomon, Merchants of Doubt, Naomi Oreskes, Nigel Lawson, obstructer, Panorama, Phil Jones, Richard Lindzen, Roger Revelle, S. Fred Singer, sceptic, Siegfried Fred Singer, Siegfried Frederick Singer, Simon Lewis, skeptic, Stephen Schneider, Steve McIntyre, Steve Schneider, The BBC, The Guardian Newspaper, Today, Today Programme, Tom Heap, Trevor Davies, UEA, University of East Anglia
Posted on July 26th, 2010 3 comments
Following Dr Judith Curry’s appeal on ClimateProgress regarding the recent RealClimate post from Tamino, that Joe Romm, and all of us, should be reading your work, I decided to take a brief look at your output on ClimateAudit in order to see what all the fuss from Judith Curry was about :-
“19. Judith Curry says: July 25, 2010 at 9:19 pm : …So if any of you have actually read as much as I have on this topic including Montford’s [Bishop Hill] book and the climateaudit threads particularly McIntyre’s most recent post, well then we might have something to talk about. Otherwise, we can just sit back and all be entertained by tribalistic wardances.”
“107. Judith Curry says: 23 July 2010 at 12:44 PM : Once more people have read the [Montford, Bishop Hill] book, and if Montford and McIntyre were welcomed to participate in the discussion, then I would be interested in participating in a more detailed discussion on this.”Bad Science, Bait & Switch, Climate Change, Delay and Deny, Divide & Rule, Global Singeing, Global Warming, Hide the Incline, Non-Science, Public Relations, The Data, Unqualified Opinion, Unsolicited Advice & Guidance Andrew Montford, Bishop Hill, Climate Change, Climate Change Science, Climate Science, ClimateAudit, Climategate, ClimateProgress, contrarian, delay, delayer, denial, denier, Global Warming, Judith Curry, obstructer, Open Mind, RealClimate, sceptic, Science, skeptic, Steve McIntyre, Tamino
Posted on July 24th, 2010 15 comments
Glad to see Professor Phil Jones is back at work and enrolling students for the autumn on the Climate Change MSc postgraduate degree programme at the University of East Anglia (UEA) Climatic Research Unit (CRU) :-
This course would probably be useful for a number of mainstream media journalists to follow. Even if they don’t have an appropriate background in Physics, Chemistry, Geography, Environmental studies or similar, it could be of benefit to ameliorate their world view.
They could learn something from the lectures and coursework – that the Science of Climate Change is a serious and rigorous endeavour – unlike the apparently lax behaviour of their own profession over the last year or so.
Investigative journalism without the “investigation” part appears to be a mishmash of unverifiable facts and unfounded opinions. You need to know who is credible at the very least, and you can’t get that from following the vindictive views of public contrarians.
If you want to understand Climate Change, you need to study the Science, not just read denier-sceptic web logs or talk to Steve McIntyre, Benny Peiser, Marc Morano, Anthony Watts, Doug Keenan, Nigel Lawson or Christopher Monckton, and think that you have thereby become sufficiently informed.
“Climategate”-style attacks on Climate Change Scientists by negatively-motivated commentators are completely unacceptable. Media workers need to learn to identify those whose opinions they cannot trust.Bad Science, Bait & Switch, Climate Change, Delay and Deny, Divide & Rule, Freak Science, Global Singeing, Global Warming, Hide the Incline, Media, Non-Science, Political Nightmare, Public Relations, Science Rules, Social Change, The Data, Unqualified Opinion Amazongate, Anthony Watts, Benny Peiser, Christopher Monckton, Climate Change, Climategate, Climatic Research Unit, contrarian, CRU, denier, Doug Keenan, Global Warming, James Delingpole, Marc Morano, Nigel Lawson, Patrick Michaels, Phil Jones, Piers Corbyn, Ross McKitrick, sceptic, skeptic, Steve McIntyre, UEA, University of East Anglia
Posted on July 23rd, 2010 No comments
So, was the exceptionally cold winter 2009 – 2010 in North America, Europe and parts of Asia a sign of Global Cooling ?
Noooo. Not a bit of it. It was down to “internal variability” of the climate system :-
“GEOPHYSICAL RESEARCH LETTERS, VOL. 37, L14703, 6 PP., 2010 : doi:10.1029/2010GL043830 : Northern Hemisphere winter snow anomalies: ENSO, NAO and the winter of 2009/10 : Seager et al…conclude that the negative NAO [North Atlantic Oscillation] and El Nino [positive ENSO] event were responsible for the northern hemisphere snow anomalies of winter 2009/10…”
Expect fireworks and/or damp squibs from denier-sceptic quarters.