On average, 2010 seems to have been as hot as 2005, which was probably the hottest year ever recorded, according to NOAA :-

http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2011/20110112_globalstats.html

Whatever the other datasets show, 2010 was certainly one unusually warm year, definitely in the warmest. Yet what interests me more is that it was also the wettest.

Rain got dumped around the world, in large, emptying-the-bath type events. The heavens really opened. Sheets of rain fell suddenly out of the skies.

One report of serious rainfall and flooding (or storms and flooding) was followed by another, and another. It was subjectively a year of unceasing rain, even before the objective records were counted.

There was Central America of course. And parts of deep Europe. Then Pakistan, which nobody could have missed. There were major Typhoons causing untold havoc in East Asia. The Caribbean was not spared. Parts of the United States of America became swampland.

Even though the BBC have only just woken up to the fact that the East Coast of Australia is suffering unusually high levels of precipitation, torrential rain and flooding have been going on there for at least a month :-

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/weather/hundreds-cut-off-by-deadly-floods-20101208-18pxi.html

It’s so significant, it’s even got its own Wikipedia page :-

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2010%E2%80%932011_Queensland_floods

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-pacific-12173846

The BBC TV News anchormen and anchorwomen think that we can all breath a sigh of relief because the peak of the Brisbane flood wasn’t as bad as had been feared, but seriously, it’s laughable to try to find something positive about what’s happening.

Unfortunately, things could still continue to get worse, even in Brisbane.

Check the live satellite :-

Wake up, Ms and Mr BBC news correspondent ! This is a major, persisting crisis, and it’s not over yet.

http://www.theoildrum.com/node/5477

“Aleklett: Australia highly vulnerable to oil shortages : June 11, 2009 : ASPO International president, Professor Kjell Aleklett of the Global Energy Systems group at Uppsala University has been in Australia over the past week, presenting lectures in Adelaide and Sydney on peak oil…warned that Australia will be one of the first countries hit hard by oil shortages as oil production peaks within the next three years. Kjell Aleklett, a physicist from Uppsala University in Sweden, says Australia’s relatively underdeveloped public transport system leaves the country more vulnerable to a downturn in energy production. “Australia is very sensitive to such developments,” Professor Aleklett told the Herald. “Much of your industry and transit is dependent on oil, and supplies will decline.” Professor Aleklett addressed the NSW [New South Wales] electric car task force and the Federal Government’s Bureau of Infrastructure, Transport and Regional Economics yesterday…”

One commentator to the discussion, Neil1947 said this :-

” Neil1947 on June 11, 2009 : Since Australia is one of the most urbanized countries in the world, electric vehicles should be very realistic alternatives to ICE [Internal Combustion Engine] vehicles. Moving from 10% of passenger miles by public transport to 20% is not going to solve the problem, it’s the other 80% that have to reduce oil consumption…”

To which commentator savvas replied :-

“savvas on June 11, 2009 : …I agree with the notion of electric behicles being very useful in our urbanised communities. The problem however is that there’s no way our largely import-dependent small car market could be supplied (on current trends) with appropriate vehicles to satisfy such a potential need, especially given the short time lines we are all concerned with. It took nearly 2 decades to swap Australia’s car fleet over to unleaded fuel, even with the incentive of a UL discount etc. I reckon this gives us a fair idea of the scope involved in even swapping over to something like 25-50% electric vehicle use…”

To which Neil1947 replied :-

“…Short term CNG [Compressed Natural Gas] conversions would be a fast response just as Iran did a few years ago, surely we are capable of converting more than the 400,000 vehicles per year…”

This history of sound warnings and good, practical advice needs to be borne in mind when considering Australia’s recent green policy announcement :-

http://www.watoday.com.au/federal-election/solar-plan-raided-to-pay-for-guzzlers-20100724-10pvk.html

“Solar plan raided to pay for guzzlers : MELISSA FYFE AND MARK METHERELL : July 24, 2010 : AUSTRALIA’S renewable energy industry was reeling yesterday after discovering a $520million budget cut to low-emissions technology in the fine print of Julia Gillard’s ‘‘cash-for-clunkers’’ announcement. Ms Gillard said that owners of pre-1995 vehicles will be able to claim $2000 from January 1 next year to upgrade to cleaner cars. She estimated that handouts would benefit 200,000 of the 2 million owners of pre-1995 cars in Australia at a cost of $394 million over four years. But the move will be financed by cutting into existing carbon reduction programs, including $200 million from the flagship solar power incentives and $150 million off the renewable energy scheme that provides rebates to householders for solar hot water and heat pump systems…”

The basic intention is sound – get “gas-guzzling pollution-spewing” old cars off the roads.

But in the long run it’s not going to be very useful to replace inefficient petroleum-burning vehicles with more efficient petroleum-burning vehicles.

The future is electric. And that electric is going to be Renewable.

Far better to invest in the future Renewable Energy infrastructure and research on electric vehicles, rather than simply offer a green stimulus to car manufacturers and sales organisations.

Of all the meaningless things to stake your premiership on, it has to be that ridiculous notion of Carbon Trading.

You realise that it won’t raise a single dollar for the de-Carbonisation of your appallingly ginormous national Energy and Transport sectors, don’t you ?

Just because Europe is playing at Carbon Markets, doesn’t mean it really works. The Euro cost of a tonne of Carbon today is EUR 13.06, nowhere near the “Stern optimum” of USD 80 per tonne of Carbon Dioxide. (The IPCC reckons on USD 100 per tonne, by the way).

And just because the Americans might join in with a Carbon Market of their own doesn’t mean you have to join in with their game.

With all those plans for Carbon Capture and Storage (expensive) and New Nuclear (costly), the Europeans and the Americans are heading for trouble if they think they can raise the finance for this from Carbon Trading.

Carbon Trading isn’t like a tax : revenues don’t come straight through the coffers of the State. You may Auction Carbon Permits, like the Europeans plan to from 2013, but the only people who will really win are the Bankers.

And don’t expect it to have any measure of success for years and years, if it ever does. Carbon Trading will be usurped and made into a commodity market, not a de-Carbonisation stimulus.

We don’t have years and years to wait for a cumbersome, top-heavy fake commodities market to produce Carbon emissions reduction. We need Peak Global Carbon by 2015, or we’re peach melba on a catastrophic fire risk day in Sydney.

Don’t throw away your leadership position over a failed Classical Economics-driven policy.

Why not announce a rapid and immediate ratchet down of the use of Coal ? Why not encourage green investors to make Australia the leading Wind Power nation of the South ? Why not issue Energy rations for your citizens to get the ball rolling ?

Don’t go to the ballot box over Carbon Trading. It’s not worth it.

Yours sincerely…

http://www.businessgreen.com/business-green/news/2253701/rudd-call-election-carbon

“Rudd may call election over carbon trading programme : Australian premier could act if Parliament fails to pass his green plans : Cath Everett, BusinessGreen, 20 Nov 2009 : Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd, whose government was elected in 2007 on a pro-green platform, may call an early election if Parliament fails to pass his carbon trading programme next week, according to a senior minister. The government is currently negotiating possible changes to the carbon trading proposals with opposition members, who control the upper house of the Senate, the aim being to broker a deal over the weekend. Such changes are likely to involve excluding agriculture from the scheme, although the conservative Liberal-National coalition in opposition is also pushing for coal mining, food processing and a range of other industries to be exempted too…”

Grist Magazine asks “How foerked are we ?” in the promotional picture for their Copenhagen Diaries.

For Professor Corinne Le Quere, from the British Antarctic Survey and East Anglia University, the answer is “very” :-

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,27574,26375158-401,00.html

“Catastrophic climate change ‘inevitable’, scientists warn : The Daily Telegraph : November 20, 2009 12:01am : (*) Temperatures likley to rise 6C in 90 years (*) Would render parts of globe uninhabitable (*) Earth’s ability to absorb CO2 declining…THE world is spinning toward a catastrophic climate change scenario, with temperatures now far more likely to rise by 6C by the end of the century, a leading international team of scientists has warned. An increase of 6C would have irreversible consequences, rendering large parts of the globe uninhabitable and destroying much of life on earth. The study by Professor Corinne Le Quere, from the British Antarctic Survey and East Anglia University, is the most comprehensive so far of how economic changes and shifts in the way people used land over the past 50 years have affected CO2 concentration in the atmosphere. It also claims the Earth’s natural ability to absorb CO2 into soil, forests and oceans is declining. The nightmarish possibility of a 6C temperature rise was made public by the UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change in 2007, when it was then only a worst-case scenario. But according to Professor Le Quere it is now all but inevitable…”

Some areas of the world which are already hot and dry are already beginning to suffer the effects :-

http://www.google.com/hostednews/afp/article/ALeqM5hZJHU0y8_YefeQrBFWBf-3v_xC3g

20 November 2009 : “‘Catastrophic’ warning as fires flare in Australia : By Amy Coopes : SYDNEY — Australian firefighters battled dozens of bush blazes on Friday as record-breaking hot weather sparked “catastrophic” warnings in two states, just months after the country’s worst ever wildfire disaster. Major lightning storms set off about 100 blazes in South Australia alone, most of which had since burned out, according to the state’s Country Fire Service. Emergency crews also battled scores of fires in the most populous state of New South Wales, some on the outskirts of Sydney, the Rural Fire Service (RFS) said. More than a quarter of the state was considered at catastrophic risk and lightning strikes set two homes in the city ablaze. “We have seen more than 80 fires across New South Wales today,” said RFS commissioner Shane Fitzsimmons. “The biggest challenge today and into the weekend is the continuing of this hot air mass dominating much of the state,” he added. Hundred-year records tumbled this week as the south and southeast of Australia sweltered through a heatwave which dried out vast tracts of bush and farmland already in the grip of a decade-long drought.”

There will always be some people who don’t understand why this is significant, who don’t accept it’s a process of change that is caused by burning Fossil Fuels.

But you’ve got to admit, even if you resist reading the Climate Change Science, that the observations match the projections : hotter, droughtier, stormier.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/06/2735769.htm

“Rudd wages war on Coalition climate deniers : By online parliamentary correspondent Emma Rodgers : Posted Fri Nov 6, 2009 : Prime Minister Kevin Rudd has upped the pressure on the Opposition over its emissions trading stance, accusing it of being full of climate change deniers intent on delaying action. In a speech to the Lowy Institute today Mr Rudd launched a strongly worded attack on the Opposition and climate change sceptics worldwide for holding up countries’ efforts to combat climate change. “It is time to be totally blunt about the agenda of the climate change sceptics in all their colours, some more sophisticated than others,” he said. “It is to destroy the Carbon Pollution Reduction Scheme at home and it is to destroy agreed global action on climate change abroad. And our children’s fate – our grandchildren’s fate – will lie entirely with them. It is time to remove any polite veneer from this debate; the stakes are that high. The clock is ticking for the planet, but the climate change sceptics simply do not care.”… Mr Rudd accused those who question climate change science of “holding the world to ransom. Climate change sceptics, the climate change deniers, the opponents of climate change action are active in every country,” he said. “They are a minority. They are however powerful and invariably they are driven by vested interests [and are] powerful enough to so far block domestic legislation in Australia.” Quoting several Opposition frontbenchers at length as proof of scepticism and a “do-nothing” attitude within the Coalition, Mr Rudd accused the Opposition of political cowardice and a “failure of logic” in so far refusing to pass the scheme. “The tentacles of the climate change sceptics reach deep into the ranks of the Liberal Party and once you add the National party it’s plain the sceptics and the deniers are a major force,” he said…”

I expected the American right-wing free-trade lunatics to try and chew him up :-

http://www.thenewamerican.com/index.php/world-mainmenu-26/australia-mainmenu-34/2267-australian-prime-minister-goes-hysterical-over-global-warming

“Australian Prime Minister Goes Hysterical Over Global Warming : Written by William F. Jasper : Monday, 09 November 2009…”

But I was still surprised to find that the Wall Street Journal was so nasty-mean about Kevin Rudd, written anonymously as far as I can see, and using evidence from what I think could well be a dubious opinion poll :-

http://online.wsj.com/article/SB10001424052748704402404574525031879821944.html?mod=googlenews_wsj

“NOVEMBER 9, 2009 : Climate-Change Panic Down Under : Kevin Rudd’s attack on ‘skeptics’ is instructive-and bodes poorly for Copenhagen. Tough economic times have a way of clarifying political priorities and forcing people to distinguish among needs, wishes—and fantasies. So you might think a politician as canny as Australian Prime Minister Kevin Rudd would know better than to blame his country’s new-found skepticism about the risks of global warming on something other than an evil conspiracy. In a speech in Sydney on Friday, Mr. Rudd claimed “climate-change skeptics, the climate-change deniers, the opponents of climate-change action are active in every country.” The prime minister then linked this global conspiracy to “vested interests” bent on “slowing and if possible destroying the momentum towards a global deal on climate change.” Mr. Rudd went on to attack, by name, “the vocal group of conservatives who do not accept the scientific consensus”; opposition leader Malcolm Turnbull, who has questioned the wisdom of taxing the most productive sectors of Australia’s economy during the downturn; and “world government conspiracy theorists” who worry about devolving tax-and-spend powers to unaccountable United Nations bureaucrats. Well, who’s left? Inconveniently for Mr. Rudd, who based his election in 2007 on his environmental bona fides, the public. Electorates all over the world are starting to question the climate-change received wisdom. A recent poll by the Lowy Institute—where Mr. Rudd gave his speech Friday—showed climate-change had fallen to the seventh “most important” foreign-policy goal for the public—down from first two years ago. There is receding support in the U.S. and Europe too, which is why next month’s Copenhagen confab is expected to be such a dud. Like the U.S., Australia is ignoring this common sense and pushing ahead to impose an expensive cap-and-trade regime on its economy. At the very least, such a fundamental change deserves a lively debate, not a defensive denunciation of anyone who disagrees with Mr. Rudd.”

But then I read this :-

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/11/09/2737160.htm

“Murdoch blasts ABC’s global ‘didgeridoos’ plan : By communications reporter Michael Rowland : Posted Mon Nov 9, 2009 : Mr Murdoch is confident he’ll be able to work out a way of charging people for online content. News Corporation’s media mogul Rupert Murdoch has been in town and he has had a lot to get off his chest, opening up on everything from the treatment of asylum seekers to Kevin Rudd’s personality. Mr Murdoch gave expansive and remarkably candid interviews with The Australian and Melbourne’s Herald Sun… Mr Murdoch also took a swipe at US President Barack Obama, saying he was “going badly”. But his comments on the Prime Minister were the most striking. Mr Murdoch described Mr Rudd as “delusional” for thinking he could shift global thinking on climate change, and accused him of being over-sensitive to criticism. He also said Mr Rudd seemed more interested in running the world and not Australia. It is no secret that Mr Rudd and News Limited papers have been at odds of late, but Mr Murdoch says this simply goes with the territory and effectively told Mr Rudd to harden up…”

Who owns the Wall Street Journal ? Wikipedia tells me, Dow Jones, of course. And who owns Dow Jones ? News Corporation. And who owns News Corporation ? Why, strangely, Rupert Murdoch.

“When I began looking at the subject of climate change, what did I find ? The first thing to hit me was the magnitude of the risks and the potentially devastating effects on the lives of people across the world. We were gambling the planet. I was also keenly aware of the importance of direct experience in mobilising action : unless people have seen or felt a problem, it is difficult to persuade them that a response is necessary.”

Well, that’s quite true. You need to know of someone, really, who’s died of lung or pancreatic cancer before you believe that smoking kills. I was in my local store the other day and a young fellow was deliberating and dithering because the storekeeper didn’t have light tar cancer sticks to offer him. “Choices, choices” I said, smiling, “but the best choice would be to stop.” We all laughed. There’s no point in trying to preach. He’s not going to quit until he has a real reason.

Well, if Global Warming continues the United Kingdom could get a bit wetter in Winter and a bit drier in Summer. Temperature rises could increase the number of Summer heatwaves and cancel out Winter cold snaps. Nothing huge there, really. So you can probably forget about trying to move British public opinion.

The British Government doesn’t help public schizophrenia indicated in poll after poll – percentages which don’t change much year on year.

The so-called “Climate Change social movement” is going nowhere. It doesn’t have any influence, it isn’t growing, and there are divisions within.

Meanwhile, the people at the top of UK public life, with decision-making authority, speak with forked tongue by following a dual path of Carbon expansionism (say, on airports and new coal-fired power stations), while at the same time spouting faith in Carbon Caps and their commitment to the United Nations Climate talks.

However, in Australia and the United States, first world Climate Change is already making its presence felt, and there are public responses in train, well, in Australia at least :-

http://www.scorched.tv

“‘Scorched’ is set in 2012 in a climate change ravaged world. Sydney has only eight weeks water left and is ringed by bushfires. It hasn’t rained for over 200 days…”

http://www.atmos.washington.edu/2009Q1/111/ATMS111%20Presentations/Folder%203/LiuX.pdf

Slide 4 : “Droughts in Australia”

http://www.guardian.co.uk/commentisfree/2009/apr/17/australia-murray-river-water

“When Britain’s taps run dry : The death of Australia’s Murray River could herald shortages not only for Adelaide but for water importers such as Britain : Fred Pearce : guardian.co.uk, Friday 17 April 2009 10.45 BST : They could soon be packing up and shipping out of Adelaide. Three years of intense drought on the River Murray, which fills the city’s taps, mean the capital of South Australia could run out of water within two years…”

The data is being gathered in the US of A, but there doesn’t appear to be much of a public movement :-

http://drought.unl.edu/DM/monitor.html

Even stories about rivers no longer reaching the sea seems to have little impact on the American way of life : guns, God and games with money :-

http://blogs.discovermagazine.com/80beats/2009/04/21/colorado-river-depleted-by-climate-change-may-bring-a-grand-drought

“Colorado River, Depleted by Climate Change, May Bring a Grand Drought : April 21st, 2009 10:57″

http://www.cbsnews.com/stories/2009/04/21/tech/main4959372.shtml?source=RSSattr=SciTech_4959372

“World’s Rivers Losing Their Flow : A Third Of The Earth’s Largest Rivers Face Significant Changes; Water Resources Threatened : WASHINGTON, April 21, 2009″

We here, the small proportion of the UK citizenry who are truly Climate-aware, have a large number of connections to rich, white relatives and friends and colleagues in Australia and the United States.

So, while it’s pointless to “campaign” on Climate Change in the United Kingdom, it might be useful to collect narratives of change from our connected people elsewhere in the first world and collate them to demonstrate what is happening, to a wide audience.

So, if any of you, my faithful readers (even the spammers, eh ?) have a feeling about how to go about collecting first world narratives of Climate Change happening now and presenting them to a wider audience in a meaningful and resonant way, please get in touch.