Ask Leo and Lucy

So when will solar power attain “grid parity”, then ?

Renewable electricity generation plant has to be paid for up-front, remember, whereupon it becomes a asset. Conversely, anything that burns coal, oil or Natural Gas remains a liability, despite its ticket price and longevity, owing to the price of the fuel.

As long as some solar photovoltaic engineers turn up at 08:00 tomorrow morning with some panels, I shall start to believe it’s actually going to happen.

And maybe, just maybe, I’ll get my paperwork processed before the feed-in tariff cut-off deadline of 12th December – the only thing that pushed the economics into the realm of the possible for me.

Some may ask – why have solar panels fitted in November ?

By Friday, I might be one of the UK’s new power stations. My neighbour four doors down is impressed – and I haven’t even got a system up there yet.

Let’s be clear here – the people in Scotland have a vision for future Renewable Energy, and so do many people in Wales and Ireland, but it appears English governance listens to fuddy duddy landowners too readily, and remains wedded to the fossil fuel industry and major construction projects like nuclear power, and carbon capture and storage.

It really is of no use putting off investment in truly sustainable and renewable power and gas. There are only two paths we can take in the next few decades, and their destination is the same.

Here’s how it goes. Path A will take the United Kingdom into continued dodgy skirmishes in the Middle East and North Africa. Oil production will dance like a man with a stubbed toe, but then show its true gradient of decline. Once everybody gets over the panic of the impending lack of vehicle fuel, and the failure of alternatives like algal biodiesel, and the impacts of a vastly contracted liquid fuel supply on globalised trade, then we shall move on to the second phase – the exploitation of gas. At first, it will be Natural Gas. But that too will decline. And then it will be truly natural gases. As gas is exploited for vehicles, electricity will have to come from coal. But coal, too, is suffering a precipitous decline. So renewable energy will be our salvation. By the year 2100, the world will run on renewable electricity and renewable gas, or not at all.

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Image Credit : Intelligence Squared

Yes, he’s right that solar photovoltaic systems are being incentivised more than other micro-generation, but there are several good reasons for that. For a first, the unit price of an adequate rooftop solar power system is in the region of the price of a car.

Most people use finance schemes to purchase cars, with monthly charges for example.

Similar schemes are not available for solar PV, where you have to borrow the whole amount for the system up-front – or take it from a savings account if you’re lucky enough to have one.

It is the sheer size of the cost of home solar that means that people won’t do it without subsidy. The one overriding concern of people when I ask them about what green energy they could consider buying, is the size of the initial outgoings.

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Me, too, in my own way, I have been trying to address the Cabinet, through my Member of Parliament, who happens to be a Minister.

I took the trouble to hand this letter in by hand at the House of Commons – or rather – the place where mail and post gets X-rayed before delivery, these security-challenged times we live in.

1st November 2011

Re: Feed-in tariffs for domestic solar photovoltaic systems

Dear Iain,

I am writing to alert you to problems I have been experiencing in arranging an installation of a solar photovoltaic power generation system on my roof at home.

If the installation does not go successfully, I expect I shall be one of several of your constituents who have been let down by the start-stop nature of the Coalition Government’s support for the advancement of this vital small-scale renewable energy. I am therefore asking for your support as my democratic representative in addressing this issue in Parliament.

As you and I discussed in your surgery meeting a few months ago, increasing British solar power generation capacity is a highly desirable goal. For a number of reasons, solar generation is still expensive, not least because of the costs of hiring fitters and technicians. Yet as you yourself recognise in your role, increasing employment is for the benefit of all.

The first phase of development of virtually all energy technologies since firewood and horsepower have required the support of the state and the financing of large research facilities. Eventually, the energy technology can stand unaided and compete in the marketplace, but that initial incubation is vital to its widespread deployment and creating the economies of scale in the production of equipment.

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You have to be prepared to dodge flying nuclear trolls, but apart from that you too can contribute, as long as you have an in-depth knowledge of the price of everything in the UK electricity generation network.

Dear XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX,

Do you think it’s possible that nobody is immune to emotional reactions to the fate of the solar power industry ? For example, you say, “I find it most frustrating that others do not even attempt to contest the factual statements or assertions I make on the basis of evidence, but simply revert to the emotive and subjective.” And yet in the very preceding paragraph you say, “…the religious diatribe of the PV industry”, which some could validly claim is an emotive and subjective statement.

You seem to be quite married to the idea that the sole focus of assessing the solar PV industry should be the differential pricing between installed cost and module cost. I’m not going to argue numbers with you, but let’s take a look at money questions, if that is your sole concern.

You do not appear to take into account peripheral costs, such as the cost of the electronics necessary to hook a home solar system into the grid, nor the employment costs, nor practical details such as the cost of scaffolding.

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I went to a film screening at Portcullis House yesterday, a kind of extension of the Houses of Parliament in Westminster. The event was hosted by the APPCCG, the All-Party Parliamentary Climate Change Group, and the German Embassy.

I had no qualms in accepting refreshments from the German Embassy. They offered jammy Danish pastries with coffee and tea. Very civilised, and loaded with fat and sugar.

In the shuttered room, I was sat wedged between Caroline Lucas MP, Joan Whalley MP and Paula Owen, energy consultant who was the lead coordinator on the online ActOnCO2 carbon calculator for the Department of Energy and Climate Change.

During the inevitable technical hitch with the Microsoft Windows platform to get the DVD restarted after it had paused (solution : turn it all off and turn it all on again), I leaned over and shook Caroline Lucas by the hand. “Thank you”, I said. “What for ?” she asked. “Everything you’re doing.”

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With almost daily updates on the climate change and energy crises, it seems like we should convert all our power generation and fuel systems to renewable resources. As of yesterday.

It would seem that sooner rather than later is the best timeframe for any adjustment and renovation of energy systems.

The current debate in the United Kingdom about state subsidies to solar photovoltaic electricity generation systems is strongly focused on financial aspects, but really should be centred on pragmatism.

Privatisation of electricity generation has resulted in decades of under-investment. Many power stations and grid components needs updating or replacing. This needs to be done soon, as the Regulator Ofgem has reported in their “Project Discovery”.

With such a short time to renew electricity generation, it would seem wise to adopt both a top-down and bottom-up approach, by investing in a range of electricity production systems of all scales.

Yet there is a remarkable intransigence in the power industry. Those players with the access to credit and the capital that have the capacity to invest in new installations are simply not budging.

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To: Jo
Date: 1st November 2011

first – this is not “disinformation” – these are questions and very reasonable ones at that and secondly just conceivably the questions might be “mis-informed but are clearly not “disinformation” -

I am genuinely interested, as are most people, in getting the best solution – this one puzzles me and I would like to know more

To address the points

1 – I was commenting on the specifics of solar which elude me – the reference you give seems to me is a broad comment on renewables. It provides little hard information – so can you please be a little more specific as to the evidence of our need?

2 At least we agree that the present aggrieved sector is mainly building (and yes I think they have been let down) – but exactly how do you see the solar industry as having the potential to benefit us technologically – when at least for the moment people can buy across the world? I see other areas – tidal for example where we have a huge advantage but not solar.

3 solar cells have a life – and if the life is exceeded by the “payback” then it seems to me they are loss makers – “payback” in this context seems to me a bit of a misnomer

4. You write “everybody pays, but the amount is not that large, and the economic knock-on benefits from a subsidy to homeowners is enormous” – that of course is true if the numbers are small – but surely if everyone had the facility then electricity would hugely more expensive – and what exactly are the benefits and how do they appear?

As I see it XXXXXXXXXXXXX’s points seem good ones and annoying as it is to some of us (me included) who were planning Solar the logic seems sound – but I am happy to be shown otherwise.

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1. why does the country need solar power? – we are at a very high latitude so it does not seem the ideal renewable to use

2 What sector is being grown? The sector seems to me mainly building rather than tech

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I made up my mind to be firm. So I just sent my solar installer an e-mail…

Subject : Problems with installation at XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX
Date: 1st November 2011

Re: Contract for a solar photovoltaic system at XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX

Dear XXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXXX,

On 22nd July 2011, I completed paying you a deposit of £ 2,980.78 on a solar photovoltaic system. You set an installation date of 25th August 2011, and demanded a second instalment of £ 5,216.37, which I paid on 5th August 2011. You are in possession of £ 8,197.15 of my money.

However, despite this fact, and despite having rebooked my installation date for 13th September 2011, it is now 1st November 2011, and I still do not have a solar photovoltaic generating system installed on my roof.

I don’t know of any other business where people are asked to put down this kind of money so far in advance of receiving the actual goods. I understand that there have been problems with sourcing the components of the solar system design we agreed on, and I have been patient, not wishing to ruin your supply chain finances. However, I am now no longer patient, and I will no longer accept delays.

Having missed all the benefits of solar power during the summer, I now find that the UK Government has decided to pull the rug out from underneath the home solar industry on 12th December 2011, and that I am at risk of missing all the benefits of the full rate Feed in Tariff, as outlined in our contract of July. I would be happy to agree with you an alternative solar system design from parts you can more easily get hold of, if it means that you can help me meet the full feed-in-tariff deadline.

You have asked me to accept an installation date of 18th November 2011. I need you to know that if I do not have a working solar system of an appropriate design for the Feed in Tariff on my roof by the close of business on 18th November 2011, and I do not have a green MCS certificate in my hand from you, and the intaller certificates on that same date, I shall consider you to be in breach of our contract, and I shall be demanding the return of my deposit and second instalment, in full, to be in my bank account by 21st November 2011.

A copy of this letter will be sent to my democratic representative.

Thank you for your attention to this matter.

Regards,

Jo Abbess

I received an Out of Office e-mail reply, so I immediately phoned the office to see if anybody was actually still in work.

The helpful office manager said, “Is that Jo ? Your parts will be delivered on Wednesday”. “But”, I said, “the engineer told me that the parts would be delivered today, Tuesday. That’s already another delay…”

And then I heard those ominous words. “Sorry. Can we call you back later ? We’re all just about to go into a meeting…”

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Wait for the howls of frustration.

Since the Chancellor George Osborne, the “Vicious Smirker” as some have it, appears to have no idea what will happen by bringing forward the cut-off date from April 2012 to December 2011 (or has every idea and just wants to make everyone suffer) and since I blame him personally for everything that is fiscally disastrous in this country (because it makes so much sense to have one target to concentrate all ones opposition upon), here’s the draft of an e-mail :-

Dear, no, expensive, George (and I’m calling you “expensive” because you are costing this country a lot of economic woe),

Since this is Monday 31st October 2011, and I expect the Department of Energy and Climate Change to be announcing a major, early reduction in the Feed-in-Tariff for solar power, may I be the first to congratulate you for destroying the small-scale solar power industry in the United Kingdom.

I’m holding you personally responsible for this decision, as you hold the pursestrings of the nation, and you have well-reported but completely uninformed opinions about renewable energy, mirrored accurately by the faceless gentlemen of the press.

Your total lack of perception about the impact of this decision does not excuse the fact that you will be directly responsible for the loss of high technology UK companies and the subsequent unemployment.

On the plus side, you will be fulfilling your own prophecy about the low growth potential of renewable energy; but on the negative side you are going to make a lot of people very irritated. I can hear the faint rustle of votes being withdrawn as we speak.

Your failure to understand the wealth creation and genuine long-term assets that renewable electricity and renewable gas can bring to this country means that you are unFIT to be in charge of energy policy subsidies. In my humble, aggrieved opinion.

Here’s what an almost immediate cut in the feed in tariff will achieve. I’m basing this on my own individual circumstances, just to give you a flavour of the pain you are inflicting on your countrymen and women.

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What ? Power to the people ? This is why the energy companies don’t like it so much, and why the corporate masters of the developed countries, and their shareholders, don’t want to have people believe in renewable and sustainable energy.

A little unauthrorised translation of what I could pick up from the trailer of a 2010 film (sorry, my German listening comprehension is very rusty) : “We are awash in energy. We are dependent on energy. How much energy is left for us ? Have we enough energy for a revolution ? How much must we pay for power ? Why must California nearly use as much electrical power as Africa ? (French) “We have this enormous potential – with the youth, the riches of Nature, the trees, the biomass, agriculture…but there is no progress…the catalyst is not there. And that’s electricity”. Do we need the big energy companies ? (German) “…energy concerns will become democratic…” The fourth revolution. Energy Autonomy.”

What on Earth is going on, I thought ?

I normally only get massive web click counts when somebody’s written something critical about me, or I’ve written something that a lot of people disagree with.

http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/12/occupy-your-mind/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/14/occupy-your-mind-2/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/15/occupy-your-mind-3/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/17/occupy-your-mind-4/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/18/occupy-your-mind-5/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/10/19/occupy-your-mind-6/

So what was with the Sunday evening crowding ? And why so many new visitors (as evidenced in the frequency data) ? It seems the “fourth generation” nuclear power fanatics were out in full flight formation last night, judging by the number of comments I received in relation to old posts :-

http://www.joabbess.com/2011/05/10/george-monbiot-bites-thorium-bait/
http://www.joabbess.com/2011/09/30/george-monbiot-corporate-sell/

So, I’ll say it again, only louder and more clearly : non-nuclear molten salt technology should be used as energy storage in concentrated solar power plants. It’s something that can be done to smooth over renewable energy variability now, efficiently, sustainably. We don’t need to wait four decades or more for working, widely-available Thorium reactors – if they ever get built – for a major non-fossil fuel energy supply. Thorium nuclear power is a red herring, a technological cul-de-sac. We don’t need it and we don’t want it (all of us, apart from the Thorium Trolls, that is).