A Very Crude Analysis

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Or-TyPACK-g
“A Crude Awakening – Trailer”

I watched the film “A Crude Awakening” for the third time this week with the good people of Transition Waltham Forest.

Several people in the room were strongly affected by the footage of the deserted oil fields of Texas, Baku and Venezuela.

In the discussion after the film I challenged the Green Party activist in the room (hopefully without hurting anyone’s feelings), asking where Energy is in the list of electoral campaign policy priorities. I said I don’t hear strong concern from any political party. It’s a subject that’s just not there.

One of the people in the room turned to me with a plea for mutual support, saying, “Ed Miliband’s really good, though”, and smiled. But you know what : you can’t count on my for any political affiliation. I don’t play games. I’m only interested in the top priorities : Climate Change, Energy Security, peaceful social cooperation. These things really matter, and without a way forward on these issues my country is going to fall apart, and take a number of other countries down with it.

As far as Energy and Climate Security go, my nation is currently a rogue state. The leaders in all fields and of all persuasions are too blinded by the notions of yesteryear : cannot everybody see that Capitalism is eating itself ? That the so-called Free Market was a scam ? That the Economy has probably shrunk by about 20% of its former “value”, that “value” it held before the Property and Financial Product bubbles burst ?

Energy is the only thing of value left. It is the only source of the wealth of nations. Two centuries ago, resources from the natural environment, combined with human labour, created wealth. In this century, it is Energy that creates the real wealth we have. And as the Energy supply gets stressed, so does our wealth.

If we cannot fill in the gap caused by Fossil Fuel depletion, by massive programmes of Energy Conservation, and accelerating the deployment of Renewable Energy, you can expect to lose your wealth, possibly completely.

It won’t matter if you have funds in a pension, or assets in gold. If there’s less Energy, then there’s less industrial civilisation, and you could be left outside the gates, just as much as anyone else could be.

What does the severe decline in Oil mean for Globalisation ? Will Free and liberalised Trade last beyond Peak Oil and Peak Natural Gas ?

And why all the forecasts about China and India using Coal to do their industrial development ? The Chinese are already recognising the acute environmental problems of Coal. India will acknowledge it too, in the end. China and India won’t be able to justify using Coal for the kind of economic growth they plan or expect.

I predict that China and India will never be able to develop in the same way as “the West”.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=6HRZPpbpSjg
“A Crude Awakening – Trailer 2”

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